Welcome back, everyone. Thanksgiving is now in the rearview mirror and the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner, so it’s safe to say we’re about to get to the pumpkin pie of the 2018 football season.
Thanksgiving is always a great time for learning things, and not just about awkward extended family dynamics. This year, I learned that Peking duck makes an interesting substitute for turkey, and that having two Thanksgiving dinners is better than one (I guess the second one was obvious). I also learned some things about fantasy football while sitting on the couch with a food coma, as you’ll discover in the words that follow.
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Melvin Gordon shouldn’t have played on his bum knee
Fantasy owners who selected Gordon around the turn (11th overall) in snake drafts got one of the best values of the year, as Gordon has averaged the most fantasy points per game of any non-QB other than Todd Gurley. If you drafted Gordon, there’s a good chance you’re cruising into the fantasy playoffs. But it now looks like he won’t be available just when you need him most.
Gordon was questionable for Week 12 due to a “sore knee,” but he convinced the coaching staff to let him play — even though the Chargers were heavy favorites at home against Arizona. The Chargers predictably destroyed the Cardinals, and Gordon chipped in with two touchdowns, but that’s where the good news ends. Gordon suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain in his knee and will reportedly miss a “few weeks.”
With the Chargers sitting pretty for a playoff spot at 8-3, expect LA to be cautious with Gordon and prioritize getting him fully healthy by the end of the regular season. In other words, while Gordon is almost certain to miss Week 14 (the first round of the fantasy playoffs in most leagues), there is a good chance he also misses Week 15 and perhaps even Week 16. He obviously shouldn’t be dropped in any fantasy leagues, but it is entirely possible that he’s already played his final down this season for his fantasy owners.
If you own Gordon, you hopefully handcuffed him with Austin Ekeler, who produced over 100 total yards and a touchdown with the increased opportunities he received against Arizona. But it’s also worth noting that rookie Justin Jackson, who has been inactive more times than not this season, was given seven carries compared to five for Ekeler.
It’s too soon to say that Jackson will be the primary ball carrier in Gordon’s absence, and Ekeler’s passing game role ensures he is the best bet for touches regardless. But this could end up being more of a committee than it ever was when Gordon was healthy. Given the upside of the role, Jackson is worth a speculative pickup in just about all leagues while we wait to see what happens.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are no longer must-start fantasy QBs
They’re two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game, and they’ve been just as great in fantasy as in reality for most of their careers. But this year Rodgers and Brady are both outside the top-10 quarterbacks in fantasy points per game, and neither is even among the top-15 QBs over the last month.
Rodgers’ numbers have taken a noticeable dip as Mike McCarthy’s offense has unraveled since the Packers’ Week 7 bye, but he wasn’t putting up vintage Rodgers stat lines even before that. He has just two games with three or more touchdown passes and three games with 300+ passing yards all year.
Brady had one of his better games of the season on Sunday, throwing for 283 yards and two scores, but he was still just the QB14 for the week before the Monday night game. He’s thrown one or fewer touchdown passes in four of his last six games, and is just the QB16 for the season.
There is simply no sugarcoating it: Rodgers and Brady have been hurting fantasy teams all season long, and at this point, it is more than fair to consider alternatives as we head to the fantasy playoffs.
Rob Gronkowski and Sony Michel are (mostly) back
It had been awhile since Gronkowski and Michel had made an impact for fantasy owners, but both of these Patriots delivered on Sunday.
It’s been an especially trying year for Gronk, who has only missed three games but appeared to play at well less than 100 percent in many others. He didn’t exactly look like the Gronk of old in this game, either, but he did manage to haul in three catches for 56 yards and his first touchdown since Week 1. We may never see the truly elite version of Gronkowski again, but as long as he can remain on the field, he is back to being a top-five tight end for the stretch run.
Fantasy owners can feel even more confident about Michel, who saw his first bell cow workload since returning from a knee injury in Week 10, and responded with a career-high 133 rushing yards. Michel did have an injury scare in the third quarter, tweaking his back in a way that looked potentially serious at first glance, but he ended up quickly returning to the field. Expect New England to heavily lean on Michel down the stretch, and with a fairly favorable schedule for the fantasy playoffs, fantasy owners can too.
Josh Adams has taken hold of the Eagles’ backfield
The Eagles indicated ahead of Sunday’s game that Adams would be their feature back going forward, and they delivered on that promise against the Giants. Adams handled 22 of Philadelphia’s 29 backfield touches, and responded with 84 yards and a touchdown.
Eagles coach Doug Pederson has been known to employ a messy three-back committee, so this represents a notable break from past habits. Corey Clement actually had a very efficient game against New York himself, turning seven touches into 76 yards, and may settle in as Philadelphia’s passing-down back (Adams has zero catches on Sunday). Regardless, Wendell Smallwood was nowhere to be found. There is no doubt that Adams is now the back to own in Philly, but he has a fairly daunting rest-of-season schedule, so he is best approached as a borderline RB2/3.
D.J. Moore is emerging as the number one wideout in Carolina
I included Moore in this space last week, as part of a group of rookie wide receivers who burst on the scene. But while Tre’Quan Smith, Courtland Sutton, and Christian Kirk either sat out or disappointed in Week 12, Moore continued to build on his breakout.
With Devin Funchess sitting out with what could be a multi-week back injury, Moore operated as the clear number one wideout in Carolina, seeing more targets (nine) than the rest of the Panthers’ pass-catchers combined. Moore hauled in eight of those targets for 91 yards and added a seven-yard run, and more importantly, he continued to pass the eye test while doing it.
Funchess and 33-year-old tight end Greg Olsen are simply not as dynamic as Moore, so expect to see Cam Newton continue to focus his attention on Moore and Christian McCaffrey even after Funchess returns. Carolina pass catchers are often hit-and-miss, but with a terrific rest-of-season schedule (@TB, @CLE, NO, ATL), Moore could realistically produce WR2 value down the stretch.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is the WR2 in Pittsburgh, but he’s a WR1 for fantasy owners
Known for his elaborate touchdown celebrations, prominent social media presence, and stolen bicycle saga, Smith-Schuster isn’t the type of player you would expect to be overlooked. But as the number two wide receiver on his own team, it’s easy to forget that he is a legit WR1 in fantasy football.
He currently checks in as the overall WR13 in non-PPR formats, but he is tied for fifth in the league in receptions per game (7.0) and seventh in the league in receiving yards per game (95.9). He now has six 100-yard receiving games — only Adam Thielen and Julio Jones have more. Smith-Schuster is currently outside the top-12 WRs because he only has four touchdowns, but he has now scored in two of his last three games. He’s also one of the most highly-targeted players in the red zone, so more positive touchdown regression should be on the way.
With an appealing schedule for the fantasy playoffs (@OAK, NE, @NO), fantasy owners can feel confident rolling Smith-Schuster out there as their number one receiver. But if you’re like the Steelers, and can feature him as your number two, that’s quite a luxury.
Baker Mayfield is well on his way to QB1 status
Mayfield has looked like an above-average NFL quarterback since he took his first snap in Week 3, but it took a little while — and some coach firings — for him to hit a high gear from a fantasy perspective. Since the Browns fired Hue Jackson in Week 8, Mayfield trails only Drew Brees in passer rating, and he’s now thrown seven touchdowns over the last two games.
If you are heading to the fantasy playoffs, you probably already have a QB that you feel confident starting each week. But if you are a Rodgers or Brady owner and Mayfield is available, Mayfield is the kind of QB who should at the very least give you something to think about. We should probably wait until next season to declare Mayfield an every-week QB1, but he is absolutely a worthy streamer for favorable matchups down the stretch — and home dates with Carolina in Week 14 and Cincinnati in Week 16 certainly qualify.
Andy Dalton is hurt, but it doesn’t really matter in fantasy
After flopping in a series of juicy matchups over the last month-plus, Dalton had already lost his streaming appeal in single quarterback fantasy leagues. But fantasy owners were still counting on Dalton to do enough to support Tyler Boyd as a WR2, get A.J. Green back into the WR1 conversation once healthy, and create enough scoring opportunities for Joe Mixon to approach RB1 value.
It’s noteworthy then that Dalton departed Sunday’s game with a sprained thumb that could cause him to miss some time. Fortunately for owners of Bengals skill position players, backup QB Jeff Driskel looked ok in relief of Dalton, albeit in garbage time.
Nobody is expecting Driskel to be the second coming of Boomer Esiason, but Dalton did not set the bar very high. If Boyd, Green, and Mixon were able to get the job done for fantasy owners with Dalton under center, there’s no reason to significantly downgrade them if Driskel takes over.
Leonard Fournette should keep his hands to himself
Fournette provided fantasy owners with RB1 production in Week 12, carving the Bills up for 108 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 21 touches. But he could have had a truly mammoth game if he hadn’t been ejected in the third quarter for getting into a boxing match with Bills linebacker Shaq Lawson.
Fournette isn’t likely to face a suspension on top of the ejection, but fantasy owners fighting for their playoff lives will have to hold their breath until we know for sure. With the way the Jags are leaning on Fournette as a bell cow back, he’s quickly reemerging as a high-end RB1 — provided he can manage to stay on the field.
The Jaguars’ defense can no longer be trusted
Defenses can make a big difference in many fantasy football leagues, but the trick is figuring out which defense to rely on. Sure, offensive players’ performances vary based on a range of different factors, but at least you’re trying to evaluate one individual player. On defense, you need to assign a collective value to a group of 11-20 different players, which is a big reason why the value of fantasy defenses fluctuates so dramatically from year-to-year. And that’s without even getting into the impact of team schedule and schematic changes.
If you need proof that fantasy defenses are volatile, just look at Jacksonville. The consensus top-rated defense coming into the season, the Jaguars have been one of the worst fantasy defenses this season, regardless of scoring system. And they hit rock bottom in Week 12, allowing 24 points to Josh Allen and the Bills while failing to record a single sack or turnover.
Again, this isn’t to say that defenses don’t matter. If you own the Bears, for instance, you’ve had a big advantage over your opponents all season long. But Chicago wasn’t even a consensus top-10 fantasy defense, and nobody really knew they were going to be an elite option until several games into the season. So while you don’t necessarily have to stream defenses, the Jaguars show why you can’t just sit back and expect them to do what they did the previous season.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.