Washington Redskins at New York Giants

Total: 42.0
Line: WAS by 1.0

QBs
Alex Smith: It appears that Smith has turned back into the quarterback he was earlier in his career, as he’s now totaled 220 yards or less in three of the last four games, though it doesn’t help that half of his pass-catchers are hurt. He’s now completed just 58-of-100 passes for 616 yards and three touchdowns the last three games, which is hardly someone you want to start in fantasy leagues. We don’t know if he’ll get Jamison Crowder, Chris Thompson, or Paul Richardson back this week, but that’ll definitely affect his projection. The Giants just traded away one of their starting cornerbacks (Eli Apple) to the Saints, so they’re clearly looking at the big picture and understand they’re not going anywhere this year. Their secondary hasn’t been the reason for their struggles, though, as they’ve allowed just two quarterbacks to eclipse 278 yards passing and just one quarterback to throw more than two touchdowns. If there’s an area where the Giants can be exploited, it’s against mobile quarterbacks, as they’ve allowed more rushing yards (194) than any other team in the NFL. Smith hasn’t rushed for more than 20 yards in any game this season, but it’s not due to inability. He rushed for 498 yards in 2015 and then 355 yards in 2017, so maybe he uses them here. We need to pay attention to who’ll be available to him in this game, but it’s tough to trust Smith as anything more than a low-end QB2.

Eli Manning: Do you think the Giants are ready to move on from Manning? It was depressing watching him continually dump-off to Barkley after legitimately one second in the pocket when the Falcons defense was clearly allowing underneath targets to the wide receivers. Barkley is a magician and deserves to be utilized, but even he was shaking his head at times about the position that Manning put him in. He’s now thrown for more than 325 yards in two of the last three games while hitting 9.1 yards per attempt in them as well. Oddly enough, Manning has scored at least 19.2 fantasy points in three of his last five games, but similar to Mitch Trubisky, his stats haven’t caught up with his play on the field. Washington’s defense has been solid this year, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 7.08 yards per attempt, which is the ninth-lowest in the league. We saw the Falcons continually pressure him and they’re bottom-five in the NFL when it comes to sack percentage, so even knowing that the Redskins haven’t had a dominant pass-rush, it’ll look better against the Giants offensive line. The Redskins have also done a solid job at limiting running backs in the passing game, so Manning will be forced to find alternatives in this game. In two games against them last year, Manning totaled 113/0 and 132/1, so it’s fair to say he’s not on the streaming radar.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: Outside of his game against the No. 1 run defense in the NFL (Saints), Peterson has totaled at least 97 rushing yards in his last three games. He looked fantastic in a tough matchup with the Cowboys last week, even though he failed to find the end zone for the third straight week. The Giants have been average against the run this year, though they’ve allowed seven different running backs to finish with 15 or more PPR points against them. Four of those running backs totaled at least five receptions, something Peterson hasn’t done all year (three is his highest). But the biggest news here is that the Giants traded away their stud run-stuffer Damon Harrison, meaning they’re going to be much more susceptible to the run going forward. The Giants have allowed a rushing touchdown in each of their last two games without Ray-Ray Armstrong (who went on IR), so it wasn’t even a matchup to avoid or anything. Peterson should be considered a middling RB2 who should score. If Thompson plays in this game, it would most definitely lower Peterson’s projection in the passing game, meaning he’d lose some of his upside. Thompson himself would be a decent RB3 play, as there’ve been five different running backs who’ve totaled at least 25 receiving yards against the Giants, though he’d be a tad risky coming off a multi-week injury. Update: Thompson is going to play this week after getting in a full practice and declaring himself “good to go.”

Saquon Barkley: It was a high-volume game for Barkley against the Falcons, even if he may not have wanted it to be at times. There were times where he would catch the ball behind the line of the scrimmage with three defenders closing in on him. The Falcons had allowed a ton to receiving backs over the last few years, so the gameplan made sense, but the Falcons were clearly ready for it. The Redskins haven’t been that generous, allowing just 36 receptions for 217 yards and no touchdowns through six games, which includes matchups against Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey, so they’ve clearly got a grasp on that. They’ve only allowed 3.92 yards per carry on the ground with four touchdowns, though they’ve faced an NFL-low 97 rushing attempts. Still, it’s impressive to see them allow just 380 rushing yards on the year, which is the second-fewest in the league. Mark Ingram was the only one who posted a top-12 fantasy performance against them, though David Johnson (RB14) and Christian McCaffrey (RB16) were close. This isn’t one of Barkley’s better matchups, but he’s in fantasy lineups as an RB1 every single week no matter who they’re facing. What you need to know is that he’s not in a smash spot for DFS, so limit exposure to tournaments.

WRs
Josh Doctson: He’s now seen six targets in each of the last two games, though it feels a bit forced due to all the injuries around him. He’s still yet to record more than 42 yards in a game but did receive some good news when the Giants traded away Eli Apple, one of their starting cornerbacks, this week. That leaves them with Janoris Jenkins and B.W. Webb starting, which is good news. Jenkins hasn’t been himself since his ankle surgery last year, allowing a league-high six touchdowns in his coverage, while Webb is a career backup who’s allowed a 111.1 QB Rating in his coverage over a span of 135 targets in his career. It’s not a week where I’d like to trust Doctson, but if Richardson and Crowder are out again, he should be on the WR4/5 radar in this matchup. If the others play, he belongs on waiver wires.

Odell Beckham Jr: It was good to see Beckham out there running routes like it was his rookie season all over again, and the results showed. He’s too good to remain quiet in fantasy, especially when we have a history of production with Manning. He’s a great play once again in Week 8, as the Redskins duo of Josh Norman (who’s been below average) and Quinton Dunbar can’t hang with him. Heck, even going back to Norman’s prime in Carolina, he couldn’t hang with Beckham. The duo has now allowed seven touchdowns on 57 combined targets, which amounts to one every 8.1 targets for those counting at home. Norman has only been in man coverage 35 percent of the time this year, so Beckham should expect to see a lot of zone, which is something he’s eaten up this year, as Manning’s completed 28-of-38 targets for 296 yards and a touchdown when targeting Beckham. There’s no reason to worry about the matchup for Beckham, as Norman will likely bring out the best in him. Consider him a rock-solid WR1 play this week. The only player who can hold him down is his quarterback.

Sterling Shepard: I didn’t check the box score of the Giants/Falcons game until Tuesday, so to see Shepard wind up with 167 yards was somewhat surprising. He’s clearly being targeted in front of Engram, and rightfully so with the way Engram looked in that game. Engram will cap his targets on a weekly basis, though. The Redskins top cornerback through six games has been Fabien Moreau and it hasn’t been all that close. While Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar have allowed seven touchdowns on 57 targets, Moreau hasn’t allowed a single one on 27 targets. In fact, he’s allowed just a 59.3 percent catch-rate in the slot, which is impressive. They do play quite a bit of zone, so Shepard isn’t an automatic sit or anything, but he’s got the tougher matchup here, making him a low-end WR3.

TEs
Jordan Reed: Can someone explain to me what is going on here? Reed has always produced in this exact offense. Reed has always been heavily targeted in this offense when healthy. Alex Smith has always favored his tight ends. Smith also favors pass-catchers who aren’t in tight coverage. Reed leads the team in separation at target. I repeat… what is going on? The process has been correct, but the results have been, let’s just say less than optimal. The Giants have seemingly cleaned up a lot of their tight end issues from last year, as they’ve yet to allow a tight end more than 53 yards, which includes Zach Ertz. He was the only one who scored on them, too, so it’s clearly not a great matchup against the team who’s allowed just the ninth-fewest points to the position. It was a good matchup last week, but they didn’t target him much (four targets), so we clearly need to dial back expectations. He’s still the No. 13 tight end on the year, even with his bye week out of the way, so I’m unwilling to kick him out of the TE1 territory, but I’d play someone like C.J. Uzomah over him this week.

Evan Engram: Outside of one plus-matchup against the Cowboys, Engram has failed to reach 20 yards in his other three games. We’re now a year and a half into his career, and he’s yet to top 44 yards in a game where he’s seen less than seven targets, which will be hard to come by with Beckham, Shepard, and Barkley in the lineup. The Redskins have been phenomenal against tight ends this year, too, allowing just 5.68 yards per target (2nd-lowest in the NFL), leading them to have allowed just the seventh-fewest yards to them. So even if the targets were there for Engram, this matchup hasn’t been kind to tight ends, and that’s included Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Greg Olsen, and Ben Watson. Engram’s rookie year has unfortunately clouded the reality of his situation, making him just a high-end TE2 most weeks and this week is no different.

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders

Total: 49.5
Line: IND by 3.0

QBs
Andrew Luck: We’ve witnessed Luck become his old self over the last two weeks, and it definitely helps that his starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo has been back in the fold protecting his blindside. Even in a tough matchup with the Bills last week, Luck was as efficient as ever, completing 17-of-23 passes for 156 yards and four touchdowns. He’s now thrown 15 touchdown passes in the last four weeks and has a competent run-game to rely on to take the pressure off at times. The Raiders defense has continually gotten worse as the weeks have gone on, as they’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns to the combination of Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson. The only quarterback who averaged less than 7.1 yards per attempt against them was Case Keenum, who also happens to be the only quarterback who failed to throw multiple touchdowns against them. Many know the Bucs as the worst secondary in the league, but the Raiders are a close second, allowing a 6.6 percent touchdown rate and 8.8 yards per attempt. Quarterbacks haven’t had to throw much against them to finish as a top-15 option, as there’s been just one quarterback who threw the ball more than 35 times against them. Luck should be considered a high-floor QB1 against them this week, and he also comes with a high ceiling.

Derek Carr: Not that Carr was fantasy viable before this, but losing Amari Cooper is going to hurt. Cooper averaged 3.8 yards of separation at target, while Nelson is at just 2.8 yards, and Bryant is at 3.2 yards. Keep in mind that’s with the opponent’s top cornerback shadowing Cooper the majority of time. Fortunately for him, he gets to figure out life without Cooper against the Colts, who have allowed 7.6 yards per attempt on the year, which is the 12th-most. They’ve only allowed 10 passing scores through seven games, though, which is the eighth-fewest. They’ve allowed two top-12 quarterback performances through seven games, and both quarterbacks (Tom Brady, Deshaun Watson) threw the ball at least 42 times. Carr has eclipsed 40 attempts just once all year (with Cooper) and it was the game against the Browns where it was straight back-and-forth scoring all game. That was also the one game Carr threw more than one touchdown and scored more than 15 fantasy points. This is a matchup I’d try to avoid. It does help that the Colts are set to be without free safety Malik Hooker.

RBs
Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines: Whew boy, we all knew Mack looked good in his game against the Jets, but he absolutely smashed the Bills, racking up 159 total yards and two touchdowns in what was no doubt his best performance of the season. With Luck throwing the ball the way he is, Mack will not be the primary focus for opponents. With that, he’s still playing behind a mediocre offensive line, so don’t go crazy and think he’s an auto-RB1 every week. The Raiders, however, have really struggled against the run and have now allowed three running backs to post 100-plus yard games on the ground. Not just that, but they’ve also allowed five running backs total at least 27 yards through the air. It’s why they’ve now allowed seven top-24 performances in just six games. With Mack back in the lineup, Hines played a season-low 17 snaps against the Bills, though it was a game they were in control of throughout, so knowing that he’s a passing-down specialist, this kind of makes sense. But now that Hilton and Mack are back, Hines is likely going to settle into a 4-6 touch role where he’ll see more work when the Colts fall behind. The Colts are favored to win this game, so it’s tough to see a gamescript where Mack is phased-out, so he should be in lineups as a strong RB2 while Hines is just a desperation RB4/5 type option. Update: After not practicing on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury, Mack returned to practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. It’s an afternoon game, so if you plan on starting him, make sure you have a backup plan.  

Doug Martin and Jalen Richard: In case you haven’t heard, Marshawn Lynch was placed on injured reserve, making Martin the insto-defacto primary ball carrier, though he’s been pretty terrible in his seven games with the Raiders, totaling just 99 yards on 27 carries behind a crumbling offensive line. He’s also seen just five targets in the passing-game, so he’s likely just as gamescript-dependent as Lynch was, though Martin hasn’t found an endzone since Week 14 of last year. The Colts have their linebackers at full health, which is bad news for Martin. With inside linebacker Darius Leonard out of the lineup, the Colts allowed 4.22 yards per carry with a 52.2 percent success rate, where they’ve allowed just 3.68 yards per carry with him on the field and a 46.6 percent success rate. Martin is likely to see at least 10 carries, so he’s on the RB3 radar, but I wouldn’t be excited about using him. Meanwhile, Richard has been a poor man’s Christian McCaffrey, totaling at least 11.7 PPR points in 4-of-6 games with Lynch in the lineup. Now that Lynch is out and Cooper is gone, the targets have to go somewhere. Knowing the Colts have allowed four different running backs to catch five-plus passes (James White had 10/77/1, Chris Thompson had 13/92/0), Richard should be in for a high workload in this game and can be played as a solid RB3 in standard leagues, and RB2 in PPR formats. If you’re looking for a true wildcard on your bench, DeAndre Washington is going to be active for this game and is likely a better running back than Martin at this point.

WRs
T.Y. Hilton: We knew it was a tough matchup for Hilton last week, which explains the four catches for 25 yards, but the two touchdowns were a nice surprise for his fantasy owners. The Frank Reich offense is clearly benefiting Hilton in the red zone, as he’s scored four touchdowns on 42 targets this year (one every 10.5 targets), while scoring just 34 touchdowns on the first 757 targets of his career (one every 22.3 targets). There have now been 11 different wide receivers who have totaled at least 87 yards and/or scored a touchdown against the Raiders. This is your reminder that they’ve played just six games. Receivers have averaged 1.97 PPR points per target against them, which ranks as the sixth-most in the NFL. Jon Gruden decided to bench both Rashaan Melvin and Gareon Conley in the Week 6 loss to the Seahawks, which may have led to Russel Wilson throwing three touchdowns on just 23 pass attempts, because they’re the best cornerbacks on the team. Hilton should be considered a must-start WR1 in this game who would benefit from Gruden’s machoism.

Chester Rogers: With Luck’s pass attempts coming back down to earth, so did Rogers’ total. He’s still posted at least four catches for 40-plus yards in each of the last four games, so he’s clearly on the bye week filler radar. The Raiders have used soon-to-be 34-year-old Leon Hall in the slot and it hasn’t really worked out to this point, as he’s allowed 17-of-20 passes to be completed for an alarmingly-high 14.1 yards per reception. In fact, the last 11 passes that have come his way haven’t hit the turf. It’s unlikely that we see Luck throw the ball 40-plus times in this game, so we do want to limit expectations for Rogers, but he should provide a solid WR4 floor in PPR formats, where he’s more of a high-floor WR5 in standard formats.

Jordy Nelson: So much for hoping that the Raiders move Nelson into a full-time slot role ala Larry Fitzgerald, eh? With Cooper gone, that makes Seth Roberts a full-time player and he’s essentially slot-only. It’s too bad, too, as Nelson had caught 8-of-10 targets for 125 yards and a touchdown in the slot. He’s not someone who’s going to gain much separation on the perimeter at this stage in his career, making him an unattractive fantasy option most weeks. The Colts have Pierre Desir and Nate Hairston defending the perimeter and although neither of them are guys to avoid in matchups, Desir has played better than expected. They’ve allowed a combined 69.8 percent catch rate in their coverage with three touchdowns on 63 targets, so it’s a better-than-average matchup. They’ve allowed just the 11th-fewest wide receiver touchdowns (7) on the year, so it’s tough to say that Nelson can save his day with a touchdown, though he’s clearly going to be the favorite red zone target. He’s seen five red zone targets to this point, while Bryant has two, and Roberts has two. It’s hard to see the Raiders playing competently, but I suppose Nelson would be the safest option. He’s a middling WR4 who offers minimal upside, though he should have a semi-decent floor.

Martavis Bryant: He’s someone who’ll see a bump in target share with Cooper out of the picture, and he’s also someone who takes just one big play to pay-off in fantasy. The benefit to him this week is that the Colts cornerback duo of Nate Hairston and Pierre Desir are extremely slow. Both run a 4.5-plus second 40-yard dash, while we know Bryant has been clocked in the low 4.3-second range. The Colts do have Malik Hooker minding the top of the defense (he’s been ruled out), so that’s the reason they’ve only allowed 20 passing plays to go for 20-plus yards, which ranks as the seventh-fewest in the NFL. They’ve also allowed zero plays to go for 40-plus yards, obviously the best in the NFL (along with the Ravens as the only other team). Bryant is a specimen and has shown the ability to get open down the field (though he dropped an easy touchdown in Week 5), so he’s worth a shot if you’re looking for a boom-or-bust type of player who might see five-plus targets, especially with Hooker ruled out.

Seth Roberts: He’s the only wide receiver who’s been with Carr for more than one season, so it’s possible he sees more targets than anyone. In fact, he’s seen 13 targets over their last two games, while Cooper saw two, Nelson saw seven, and Bryant saw six. Roberts was also a red zone favorite of Carr’s back in 2015-2016, as he scored five touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. He’s got the toughest matchup on the field, though, as he’ll see Kenny Moore, who has yet to allow a touchdown on 28 targets in coverage and has kept the play in front of him while allowing just 9.3 yards per reception. You don’t need to play Roberts this week, but it could be a Chester Rogers situation where he’s targeted by default.

TEs
Eric Ebron: As Luck’s pass attempts declined last week, everyone’s targets declined, as Ebron saw ‘just’ seven targets that amounted to three catches for 31 scoreless yards. I say just because he’s averaged 10.0 targets per game in Jack Doyle‘s absence, though Luck was on a record-pace during that time. The Raiders are one of three teams who allow more than 10.0 yards per target to tight ends on the season, though not many know they’re that bad because teams have only targeted their tight ends 26 times against them, which is by far the lowest in the league (no other team is below 31 targets). It’s probably because they’ve played Jake Butt, Virgil Green, Mike Gesicki, Tyler Higbee, and others. Despite lackluster competition, they’ve allowed the second-most fantasy points per target (2.23) to the position. Ebron should get back on track in a big way against the Raiders, making him a high-end TE1. Update: It appears that Doyle is going to play this week, though it’s likely he’ll be eased in after a five-week absence. Ebron should still be played as a TE1, while Doyle is on the low-end TE2 radar where I’d like to see him play a full complement of snaps before trusting him. 

Jared Cook: If there’s one player who we knew was going to be targeted even with Cooper on the field, it was Cook, who’s seen at least six targets in 4-of-6 games, including 12 or more in two of them. The Colts have had Clayton Geathers covering tight ends, but he’s been forced to miss the last two weeks with a concussion, which has put backup Mike Mitchell in to help out with tight ends. We saw Chris Herndon get loose against them for 56 yards and a touchdown in his first game, and then they played Derek Anderson and the Bills offense last week, making it tough to gauge how he’ll do against someone who’s actually targeted. Cook is still someone who you should feel comfortable playing as a low-end TE1 due to the target volume he’ll get, even if he lacks massive upside, which we don’t exactly know if Mitchell is back there again.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 43.0
Line: ARI by 0.5

QBs
C.J. Beathard: Well, we knew that Beathard would drop back quite a bit last week, but sadly, he didn’t deliver as the Rams defense found their way back to him for a season-high seven sacks. He threw just 27 attempts, as the Rams dominated the time of possession because the offense couldn’t sustain a single drive, even in garbage time. Prior to that game, he’d totaled at least 17.8 fantasy points in each game, so it’s tough to know if we’re overreacting to one bad game or if he was just playing over his head in the first three games. What we do know is that the Cardinals defense has been one to avoid with fantasy quarterbacks, as they’ve still yet to allow a quarterback finish better than QB10 in any given week, but it’s important you know that it was Beathard who finished QB10, though it was partially due to his rushing touchdown. Over the last five weeks, the Cardinals have not allowed a single quarterback to throw for more than 6.9 yards per attempt, which included Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Mitch Trubisky. Despite his 354-yard performance against them in Week 5, I’m unwilling to see a repeat of the 54 attempts he threw in that game. He’s just a low-end QB2 and not an exciting one.

Josh Rosen: It was an ugly game for the entire team on Thursday night, but no one more so than Rosen, who threw three interceptions and fumbled three times (losing two of them). The offensive line was putrid to begin with, but they had to go without right guard Justin Pugh which proved to be the straw that broke the camel’s back, as Rosen was sacked six times. Fortunately for him, the 49ers are on deck and they rank 25th in sack percentage this year. The two teams met back in Week 5 where Rosen threw 25 times, completing just 10 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown. It’s important to note that 75 yards and a touchdown came on the first pass of the game, so the remainder wasn’t pretty. Outside of that game, the 49ers have allowed at least 16.5 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve played. The Cardinals fired Mike McCoy last week, so they’ll be moving forward with Byron Leftwich as the play-caller on an interim basis, though we have no clue what this will mean, as he’s got no history. Rosen isn’t someone you should be playing in fantasy right now, not until we see glimpses of competency from this offense.

RBs
Raheem Mostert and Alfred Morris: As of now, I’m not assuming that Matt Breida plays after having to leave their Week 7 contest on multiple occasions in what Kyle Shanahan called a recurring injury that they need to reassess. Knowing this team is going nowhere in a hurry, it makes little sense to trot him out there at less than 100 percent. Mostert has looked phenomenal over the last two weeks and deserves a bigger role, as he’s racked-up 146 yards on 19 carries the last two weeks, and even added four receptions for 19 yards once Breida went down against the Rams. The Cardinals are on deck, the team that’s allowed 29.2 fantasy points per game to running backs, while no other team has allowed more than 25.7 points per game. A large reason is due to the 12 touchdowns (10 rushing, 2 receiving) they’ve allowed to running backs. In the first meeting between the two teams, the 49ers running backs combined for 41.8 PPR points, though not one of them individually scored more than 14.7 PPR points. If Breida is out of the picture for a week, we’re looking at a Mostert/Morris timeshare, and judging by Mostert’s 19 carries to Morris’ nine carries, we might want to look at Mostert as a spot-start low-end RB2. I’d almost want to say he’s a must-play, but we can’t because there’s some risk to playing him and not knowing his role with Breida out. There’s been just one game all year where Morris has averaged more than 3.5 yards per carry, so he’s nothing more than a plodder who might still offer RB4 value considering the matchup.

David Johnson: Here’s to hoping that new interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich knows how to use David Johnson, though it might be unlikely considering it’s his first opportunity to call plays. One thing we do know is that it can’t get much worse, right? Mike McCoy continually ran him in-between the tackles behind a poor offensive line, leading to a terrible 3.2 yards per carry on the year. Johnson has never been phenomenal when carrying the ball inside the tackles, but benefits from pitch plays that get him into the open field, allowing him chances to break tackles and shake defenders. He also needs to be utilized more in the passing-game, which would in-turn give confidence to Rosen. The 49ers have been beaten-down by pass-catching running backs, allowing the seventh-most points to running backs through the air, as they average 13.8 PPR points per game through the air alone. After allowing just two rushing touchdowns in their first four games, the 49ers defense has suddenly allowed five rushing scores in the last three weeks. Two of them were Johnson in their Week 4 meeting where he totaled 55 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. The Cardinals do have the element of surprise this week, as the 49ers have no idea how Leftwich will call plays, so we have to slot Johnson in as a low-end RB1 and hope for the best.

WRs
Marquise Goodwin: It’s too bad that his Week 6 performance against the Packers seems like it may have been a blip on the radar rather than a constant, as the Rams cornerbacks had really been struggling coming into that game. Goodwin did see a 20 percent target share, but failed to deliver, catching just two passes for 24 yards. It’s not the week to get excited against the Cardinals, either, as they’ve been one of the better secondaries in the NFL this year, particularly on the perimeter where Goodwin plays 80 percent of his snaps. Between Patrick Peterson, Bene Benwikere, and safety play, they’ve allowed just 18 passing plays that have gone over 20 yards, which ranks fourth-best in the NFL. They’ve also allowed a league-low four touchdowns to wide receivers. We know that Goodwin doesn’t consistently get it done with catch after catch, so it’s probably not a good week to trust him as anything more than a big-play WR5. It’d be wise of them to get him into the slot a lot more in this matchup. If they do, it could pay-off big time.

Trent Taylor: If there’s one thing we’ve learned about the Cardinals defense, it’s that you attack them via the slot, as converted safety Budda Baker has been absolutely demolished while trying to play there this season. Here’s a list of slot-heavy receivers and what they’ve done versus the Cardinals:

As you can see, it’s progressively gotten worse, as he’s now allowed three straight top-15 performances, which included Taylor in Week 5. Taylor did return to the lineup last week after missing Week 6 with a back injury and only played 20 snaps in that game, so he may not be 100 percent. If we see him practice in-full by the end of the week, he’s worth a look in deeper leagues. Update: It appears he’s been removed from the injury report all together. 

Christian Kirk: It’s been a much better ride for Kirk with Rosen under center, as he’s now averaged 5.5 targets, 4.0 receptions, 61.8 yards, and 0.3 touchdowns in the four games, but you have to wonder if he starts losing some looks to Fitzgerald, who has been limited by a hamstring injury for weeks. In the last game against the 49ers, Kirk led the game off with a 75-yard touchdown, though he was shut down the remainder of the game. The 49ers were without Richard Sherman last week, which would be massive for Kirk’s projection, as Sherman has easily been their best cornerback. He’s been dealing with a calf injury that’s reportedly gotten worse as the year’s gone on, which may stem from his Achilles injury from last year, as many players have other issues as a result of it. The 49ers also lost safety Adrian Colbert to injured reserve, so their secondary may be ripe for the taking. Knowing the new offensive coordinator is in place and that Fitzgerald is healthy, we may not want to go all-in on Kirk, but he’s on the WR4 radar, especially if Sherman misses another game.

Larry Fitzgerald: With him getting healthier, we’re starting to see Rosen target him a bit more, as he’s now seen eight targets in each of the last two weeks. He’s still averaging just 5.9 yards per target on the season, so we don’t want to overreact, but it’s good to see him produce in a tough matchup. He’s in a rematch with K’Waun Williams, the cornerback who held him to two catches for 35 yards in Week 5. We talked about his matchup with Williams last year in the Week 5 primer, where he was held to just four catches for 32 yards, but did score a touchdown at the end of the game. He’s a better than average nickel cornerback, so it’s not a matchup you aim to target and knowing that Rosen has still yet to throw for more than 240 yards or one touchdown in any of his four games, you can’t get too excited, though the new offensive coordinator may use Fitzgerald in some unique ways. Consider Fitzgerald a low-end WR4 whose arrow is pointing up, though we don’t know how far it can go at this point.

TEs
George Kittle: It appears that Week 6’s 30-yard performance was just a blip on the radar, as Kittle got back to his usual ways last week, totaling 98 yards and a touchdown. He’s now totaled at least 79 yards in 5-of-7 games and has scored in 2-of-4 games with Beathard. There’s been just two tight ends who’ve posted top-18 performances against the Cardinals but Kittle was one of them when he totaled 83 yards in Week 5. He didn’t score in that game and it’s also important to know that Beathard threw the ball an extremely-high 54 times. He’s thrown the ball less than 30 times in each of the last two games, so it’s clear the 49ers don’t want that to happen again. The Cardinals do have a really good safety duo, which is maybe why tight ends have only been targeted 32 times against them (3rd-fewest in NFL). They have allowed a rather-high 8.6 yards per target on those targets, so maybe the 49ers were right to target Kittle seven times in their first meeting. Kittle is an every-week start at this point, and thought the Cardinals defense has allowed the eighth-fewest points to tight ends, a lot of it is volume-based, which we know Kittle has no issues with.

Ricky Seals-Jones: It seems like Seals-Jones is a big-play-or-nothing tight end, as there’s been just three games this year where he’s totaled more than 20 yards. In every one of those games, he’s recorded a catch that’s gone at least 31 yards. Not only is it bad relying on a big play from a tight end, but he’s scored just one touchdown this year, and it was on a broken play where he was uncovered. The 49ers defense held him catchless on six targets back in Week 5, though their secondary is likely to look a bit different in this game. They may be without Richard Sherman, which could force a safety to help out on that side of the field more than usual, and they’ll definitely be without safety Adrian Colbert, though he has not played very well anyway. The only two tight ends who’ve recorded more than 27 yards against the 49ers were Travis Kelce and Jimmy Graham, who both saw at least nine targets. You know who Seals-Jones is at this point, and he’s not someone you should feel the need to play.

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams

Total: 57.0
Line: LAR by 9.0

QBs
Aaron Rodgers: What alternate universe do we live in where Aaron Rodgers is a nine-point underdog? The spread actually started out at Rams -10.5, but has moved down to 9.0 since then, though I could see it dropping more. The Rams defense may have looked mighty good against the 49ers last week, but they aren’t in the same stratosphere as the Packers offense. Don’t forget about this on the Rams defense from last week’s Primer: After shutting down the Raiders and Cardinals offenses over the first two weeks (who hasn’t), the Rams have allowed four straight quarterbacks finish as top-15 options, which includes Case Keenum last week. They’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game, and it’s not even because of high pass attempts. They’ve allowed 10 passing touchdowns on the last 142 pass attempts, which would be 7.0 percent (2nd highest in the NFL, higher than the Falcons). They’ve played some good quarterbacks so I don’t think they’re that bad, but they also aren’t the elite defense they were supposed to be. And now they’re expected to blow-out the Packers, who are coming off their bye week with a healthy wide receiver corps? Yes, the Rams will score plenty of points against the Packers defense, but Rodgers will be leaned on heavily in this game, making him the elite QB1 you drafted.

Jared Goff: Since his five-touchdown game on Thursday night against the Vikings, Goff has taken a backseat to the Todd Gurley show. He’s thrown just 28.0 pass attempts per game over the last three weeks, while averaging just 241.3 yards, throwing three touchdowns and three interceptions. The odd part is that he didn’t play an elite defense in any of those games. Once again, the Packers are not an elite defense. They’ve allowed at least 15.2 fantasy points to all non-Josh Allen quarterbacks, and they’ve done that on minimal attempts, as there’s been just one quarterback who’s thrown the ball more than 35 times. The 30.8 pass attempts per game against them ranks as the third-lowest in the league, but efficiency has been good against them, as they’ve allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per pass attempt. We cannot pretend that losing Cooper Kupp isn’t a big deal, because it certainly is, but this game has shootout written all over it. The Packers defense has allowed at least 29 points in four of their last five points, with the lone exception being the Bills offense. Goff should be played as a solid QB1, though his upside isn’t as high as some in his range due to Gurley’s outrageous season.

RBs
Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, and Ty Montgomery: Remember when Mike McCarthy said it would be a three-way timeshare with the running backs this year? Well, maybe we should’ve believed him. Here’s the touch splits over the first six games this season:

Williams hasn’t touched the ball more than 11 times since Jones was out of the lineup, Montgomery consistently gets five-plus touches, and Jones is seemingly getting one more touch than Williams each week. This is not a recipe for a successful fantasy running back, especially against a defense that’s yet to allow a top-12 performance. Through seven games, no running back has been able to score more than 16.9 PPR points against them, which is quite rare. This is essentially a touchdown-or-bust situation and Jones is the primary red zone running back since returning, totaling five red zone carries to just two for Williams. Did the bye week allow a changing of the guard? If you think so, play Jones in DFS tournaments. But for season-long leagues, Jones is a risky RB3, while Williams is just a boring RB4, and Montgomery might have the highest probability of a receiving touchdown among them, so he’s on the RB4 radar as well.

Todd Gurley: Do we even have to explain Gurley’s record-breaking pace anymore? He has 206.6 PPR points through seven games. As a gauge, there were just 11 running backs who scored that many points in 2017. Whew. The Packers defense is coming off their bye week, and it was likely needed to get ready for Gurley. On the season, the Packers have allowed four running backs to post at least 70 yards on the ground and that’s despite no running back reaching 20 carries against them. They’ve also allowed multiple rushing touchdowns to two different running backs (Adrian Peterson, LeGarrette Blount) in their last four games. One thing to note is that just one running back has caught more than three passes against them, and just one has totaled more than 30 receiving yards. But here’s the thing… they haven’t played Gurley. He’s an elite must-play RB1 who might have the best fantasy season of all-time.

WRs
Davante Adams: Despite already getting his bye week out of the way, Adams currently sits as the No. 5 receiver on the season. From a points per game standpoint, only Adam Thielen has been better than Adams to this point. And now, he’s going into a matchup with a Rams secondary that has struggled. The three cornerbacks who played the most snaps in Week 7 were Marcus Peters, Troy Hill, and Sam Shields. Those three have combined to allow 41-of-55 passing for 717 yards and nine touchdowns over the last five weeks, which does include last week’s 49ers game (where they didn’t have receivers to exploit them). Despite not allowing any last week, they’ve now allowed seven wide receivers to finish with 17.3 or more PPR points against them, including four of them with 23.3 or more points. They aren’t going to have Marcus Peters shadow Adams, and even if they did decide to take that avenue, he’d get burned. Adams is an elite WR1 who needs to be played anywhere you’re able.

Geronimo Allison: Here’s a few players who Allison has scored more PPR points per game than: Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Keenan Allen, Will Fuller, and Demaryius Thomas. In fact, there’s just 23 players who’ve averaged more points per game than Allison, so why was he on 61 percent of waiver wires last week? He’s totaled at least 64 yards in each game and has the greatest quarterback on the planet throwing him the ball. As mentioned in the Adams paragraph, the Rams secondary hasn’t been good as of late and can be exposed by the Packers receivers. In three of their last four games, they’ve allowed multiple top-30 wide receivers, with the lone exception being the 49ers last week. Allison should be in lineups as a low-end WR3 for this game, provided he practices all week. Update: Allison practiced all week in a limited fashion and Mike McCarthy said he looks good to go. 

Randall Cobb: Outside of one 75-yard touchdown where the Bears looked lost, Cobb has done nothing this year. Seriously, outside of that catch, he’s totaled 119 scoreless yards on 26 targets. He’s due back this week, but the Packers may start to ask themselves whether Marquez Valdes-Scantling might be better for the team going forward. His progress in his career could allow them to “play it safe” with Cobb, who is coming back from an extensive hamstring injury that’s had him out since Week 3. The Rams had Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot all season, but he played just 14 snaps last week, which ranked fourth on the team. It left me wondering if there was an injury, but nothing was reported. He hasn’t been terrible in coverage (I’d call him their best cornerback at this point in time), but we must pay attention to playing time. If the Rams insist on putting Sam Shields in there, it’s a much better matchup for Cobb. You need to approach this matchup with caution, as there’s a lot of variables that come into play. You’re probably best off looking at Cobb as a WR4/5 option who comes with risk. Update: Cobb practiced all week and even got in a full practice on Friday, so he’s set to return in this matchup. 

Brandin Cooks: The low volume last week likely held Cooks back in what could have been a really big week against the 49ers, but he did find the end zone for the second time this year. He’s now totaled at least 53 yards in every game he’s played all four quarters and the volume is likely to come back against the Packers this week. It’s been a while since the Rams have played a team who can keep up with them offensively, and the last time that happened (Vikings in Week 4), Cooks popped-off for 7/116/1. With Kupp out of the lineup, Cooks and Woods will be leaned on heavily. He’ll see Tramon Williams most of the time, and while he may be their best cover cornerback, he’s not fast enough to hang with Cooks. At this point in his career (35 years old), he’s running a 4.6-plus second 40-yard dash, so he’s going to need help over the top from Haha Cliinton-Dix. The issue with him bracketing Cooks is that it leaves the lackluster Kevin King in one-on-one coverage with Woods, something that can’t be done all the time. The Packers have allowed just 19 passing plays of 20-plus yards (8th-fewest), but the Rams always present a unique look that will make most look bad. Cooks needs to be started as a strong WR2 this week who has massive upside.

Robert Woods: Had we known that Richard Sherman was going to miss last week, Woods would have been in WR1 territory, though we’re lucky to have avoided a low-volume game from the Rams for DFS purposes. Woods still saw seven targets in a game Goff threw the ball just 24 times, so you know his role is ultra-safe, and he’s now totaled at least 78 yards in six straight games. His primary matchups this week will be against sophomore Kevin King and either Josh Jackson or Jaire Alexander, two rookies trying to fill roles in the secondary. The Packers have allowed 1.95 PPR points per target this year, which ranks as 10th-most in the NFL, and they’ve also allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers despite already getting their bye week out of the way. Woods is a borderline WR1 for this game and one who needs to be in lineups.

TEs
Jimmy Graham: What in the world is happening when Graham has now posted three of the top-30 yardage totals in a game for tight ends this year? We’re talking about a guy who totaled just 520 yards on 95 targets last year. It’s clear that he’s still got some juice left in the tank and has started to earn the trust of Rodgers. He’s seen 20 targets over the last two games, though it did help that both Allison and Cobb were out for those games. Maybe the craziest part of it all is that Graham has just one of Rodgers’ 12 touchdowns. With the yardage, touchdowns will follow, so don’t worry about that. This matchup with the Rams aligns with what Graham has done so far, as they’ve allowed the eighth-most yards per target to tight ends, but have allowed just one touchdown to them. There’s been just two tight ends who’ve seen more than six targets against them and the results were promising: George Kittle 5/98/1 and Jared Cook 9/180/0. Graham should be played as a high-end TE1 who might just find his way into the end zone.

Gerald Everett: Even with Kupp out of the lineup last week, Everett ran just nine pass routes, while Tyler Higbee ran eight routes. These two have been non-existent all year, combining for just 24 targets, 14 receptions, 140 yards, and one touchdown. I’m pretty sure that Zach Ertz has had one single game better than that. The Packers are one of just two defenses who have yet to allow a tight end touchdown, so you shouldn’t even depend on the off-the-wall two-touchdown game that we’ve seen from time-to-time.