Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 51.0
Line: PIT by 7.5
QBs
Baker Mayfield: It wasn’t as big of a performance that we expected out of Mayfield last week, though his 20.9 fantasy points definitely lived up to streamer status. He completed 68 percent of his passes and even flashed his legs, now having 74 rushing yards over the last three weeks, adding plenty of value. If we know anything about the Steelers, it’s that they’re going to put points on the board, especially against a Browns team who’s now allowed at least 26 points in three of their last four games, including 45 to the Raiders and 38 to the Chargers. The Browns offense will need to keep pace with them and it’s going to fall on Mayfield to do that, as the Steelers run-defense has been fantastic and haven’t allowed more than 75 rushing yards to any one running back. They have, however, allowed at least 16.4 fantasy points to every quarterback they’ve played, including four top-12 performances that included Tyrod Taylor and Joe Flacco. As the week goes on, the total on this game should increase, as the Week 1 matchup was on the road, where we know Roethlisberger doesn’t score many points. Steelers opponents are averaging 68.3 plays per game (5th-most) and 41.2 pass attempts (4th-most), making this an attractive game to stream Mayfield as a low-end QB1 once again.
Ben Roethlisberger: Coming off the bye week to play at home? That’s probably a good combination for Roethlisberger, who likely needed a few weeks to clear his head. He’s been less-than-ideal on the field, though his fantasy numbers haven’t suffered because of the volume he’s had. He had his worst game of the year against the Browns in Week 1, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions in what was a messy game with rainy conditions. The Browns looked to be a solid defense over the first two weeks, holding Roethlisberger and Drew Brees to just QB23 and QB14 performances, but have started to struggle over the last four weeks. They’ve allowed at least 7.0 yards per attempt in three of the last four games, and have allowed an average of 29.5 points per game in that stretch, including 45 to the Raiders. They’ve started to move Denzel Ward around the field a bit more, which will help with certain players, but you cannot trust any one cornerback against Antonio Brown. While he’s intercepted three passes, he’s also allowed three touchdowns in his coverage. You shouldn’t be sitting Roethlisberger in this matchup at home.
RBs
Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson: Last week was one where we should’ve seen more Johnson than ever, but he played nearly identical snaps to what he played with Carlos Hyde on the roster, making him just as difficult to trust. He has played near 50 percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, which is much better than the previous three weeks where he played just 36 percent of the snaps, but man, he needs to touch the ball more. Chubb looked fantastic taking over for Hyde and did something in that game against the Bucs that Hyde had done just once all season… average more than 3.7 yards per carry. He’s not an easy tackle and won’t go down without a fight, but the Steelers have been up to the task this year, allowing just 3.57 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns through six games. When looking at the line on this game and the implied total, you have to wonder who would be used in clear-cut passing downs, as Chubb saw just two targets last week and didn’t catch either of them, while Johnson has caught 15-of-18 targets for 172 yards since Mayfield took over. The Steelers haven’t allowed more than 20 yards to a running back through the air, however, so it’s just a tough matchup all around. Chubb will be involved and belongs in lineups as opponents have averaged 23.5 carries per game against the Steelers, though his ceiling is rather limited in the matchup. He should be considered a low-end RB2 while Johnson is a high-end RB4 who has some appeal in PPR formats.
James Conner: Another two weeks gone by and another two weeks where Le’Veon Bell has yet to show up. Conner has made the most of it, too, racking up 221 rushing yards, 93 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns the last two games. They were great matchups, but so is this one against the Browns, as it’s a team he demolished in Week 1 for 192 total yards and two touchdowns. That was one of five top-15 performances they’ve allowed this year. In fact, any running back who’s totaled 15 or more carries against them has scored at least 18.7 PPR points. There’s been just two games this year where Conner has failed to get that, and considering opponents are averaging 30.0 rushing attempts per game against the Browns (3rd-most), he’s going to get there. He’s an RB1 who’s a big home favorite and gamescript-proof, which makes him playable in cash lineups.
WRs
Jarvis Landry: It was good to see Landry live up to WR1 status in a great matchup last week, as things were starting to look dicey for a while. But seriously, how can you not like a guy who’s now seen 10-plus targets in five straight games and 6-of-7 games on the season? There’s been four receivers who’ve seen 10-plus targets against the Steelers and here are their totals: Mike Evans 6/137/1, Chris Godwin 5/74/1, Landry 7/106/0, and A.J. Green 7/85/0, so each of them scored at least 15 PPR points and finished as a top-25 option. Landry is playing most of his snaps in the slot, which means the Steelers are likely to go back to their zone defense instead of having Joe Haden shadow like they’d done in the last two games. You’ll want Landry in lineups as a solid WR2 this week, though it does hurt a bit that slot cornerback Mike Hilton is back to 100 percent health, though he was for their Week 1 matchup when Landry dropped 106 yards.
Antonio Callaway: The Browns said they were going to dial back Callaway’s snaps in an effort to get him back on track, but he was once again a full-time player against the Bucs, though he was much less involved in the gameplan, totaling just two targets. He’s now totaled 22 yards or less in 4-of-5 games and belongs on waiver wires. Once the Browns get Rashard Higgins back from his MCL sprain, you’ll likely see Callaway on the bench at that time.
Damion Ratley: When looking at consistency, it appears that Ratley is the most dependable wide receiver that Mayfield has at the moment. He’s seen 11 targets over the last two weeks, turning them into 9/105/0. Since becoming the starter, Mayfield’s QB Rating when targeting his receivers goes like this: Rashard Higgins 116.2, Ratley 106.4, Landry 72.3, Callaway 17.0. Unfortunately, Ratley will see the most of Joe Haden in coverage, who happens to be the Steelers best cornerback. On the year, he’s allowed just a 48.6 percent catch-rate and just one touchdown on 37 targets in coverage. Because of that, Ratley is not a preferred play in Week 8, though he’s someone to monitor for those in deeper leagues.
Antonio Brown: Knowing that Roethlisberger struggles a bit on the road over the last four years, you should also know that it affects Brown, right? He’s averaged 25.0 PPR points per game at home in that time, while averaging 19.8 points on the road. While both are very good, it’s good to know he’s at home for this game. Denzel Ward has been moving around the field a bit more recently and the Browns have also moved Damarious Randall down from safety to help out in shadow situations, as they did last week. Mike Evans hung 7/107/0 on him, so that might be a failed experiment. We don’t know if they’ll shadow Brown at all, but he did tag them for 9/93/1 in Week 1 while Roethlisberger had one of his worst games in recent memory. Brown has now scored in each of the last four games and totaled 100-plus yards in back-to-back games. There have been six wide receivers who’ve totaled at least 89 yards against the Browns, and Brown will likely be added for a second time this game. He’s a must-start WR1 every week and this game is no different. Despite Roethlisberger’s struggles, Brown has totaled at least 15.7 PPR points in every game this year and has scored 20 or more in 3-of-6games, making him cash game viable.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: After a hot start where some laughably called him the Steelers WR1, Smith-Schuster has come back down to earth. He was the No. 4 receiver from Weeks 1-3, but has been the No. 23 receiver from Weeks 4-6, which is likely closer to his actual value, which is still very good. He’s seen at least 10 targets in four of the last five games and will match-up with T.J. Carrie in the slot, who has been much better than Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who Smith-Schuster destroyed for 119 yards in Week 1. Carrie hasn’t been great, but he’s been consistently average, allowing these lines to opposing slot receivers: Adam Humphries 4/37/0, Keenan Allen 4/62/0, Willie Snead 5/55/0, Jordy Nelson (that week) 5/48/1, and Quincy Enunwa 4/57/0. As you can see, it’s been a bunch of mediocre results against him, and he’s had some good competition mixed-in. Smith-Schuster may have to take a backseat to Brown this week, though he’s still playable as a middling WR2 against the Browns considering the volume he’s seen. It’s just not a week to take the discount on him in DFS.
Justin Hunter/James Washington: With Hunter back healthy in Week 6, he immediately entered the competition for the Steelers WR3 job, as he ran 11 routes to Washington’s 14 routes. With the lack of production out of Washington, it’s not surprising at all, and Washington may find himself in the single digits after the bye week. It’s not a week to trust either of them in season-long leagues, as this can go either way because Washington is supposed to be the Steelers future while Hunter is just a journeyman in the league. Neither has a plus-matchup against Damarious Randall or Denzel Ward, either.
TEs
David Njoku: I hope you traded for Njoku a few weeks ago when we talked about him being one of the best buy-lows in all of football, as he’s totaled at least 52 yards in each of Mayfield’s four starts and has also scored in each of the last two games. The Steelers revamped their safety position this offseason, but their key acquisition, Morgan Burnett, hasn’t played since Week 2 and judging from his recent comments about possible groin surgery, it doesn’t sound like he’s close to returning. In his absence, the Steelers have allowed Travis Kelce 7/109/2, O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate 9/106/1, Maxx Williams 5/51/0, Austin Hooper 9/77/0, and C.J. Uzomah 6/54/0. That’s five straight top-16 performances, including two 16-plus point performances. Njoku should be considered a high-end TE1 this week in a game Mayfield is likely to drop back 40-plus times. He’s seen a 22 percent target share from Mayfield over the last four weeks, which is second in the NFL behind only Zach Ertz.
Vance McDonald: He’s settled into his role over the last three games, playing a rock-solid 64.8 percent of snaps and running 33 more routes than his teammate Jesse James. It’s tough to say McDonald is a sure-thing every single week considering his one-catch, six-yard performance against the Falcons in Week 5, but he’s totaled at least 62 yards in three of the last four games, which is most definitely TE1 territory. After allowing the second-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, the Browns have played much better against them in 2018, allowing just 1.45 PPR points per target, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL through seven weeks. That number was at 1.90 points last year, though the Browns moving Damarious Randall away from the free safety position could open some things up, as we saw fellow athletic tight end O.J. Howard reel off five catches for 67 yards against them last week. With Roethlisberger at home and likely to throw for 2-3 touchdowns, McDonald is a low-end TE1 in this matchup and one who should be considered for DFS tournament lineups.
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions
Total: 49.5
Line: DET by 3.0
QBs
Russell Wilson: Did the bye week come at an inopportune time for Wilson and the Seahawks offense? Wilson completed 30-of-44 attempts for 420 yards and six touchdowns in the two prior weeks, so maybe they’ve started to find their groove. The Lions defense is not one to be worried about, either, as they’ve now allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game where Matt Patricia isn’t going against his former team. They’ve allowed them on minimal pass attempts, too, as they’re allowing a 6.6 percent touchdown rate, which ranks as third-worst, behind only the Bucs and Raiders. Keep in mind that the Raiders were the team Wilson just tagged for 222 yards and three touchdowns on just 23 pass attempts. Think about it this way… Despite losing Albert Wilson early in the game, losing Kenny Stills late in the game, and not having DeVante Parker active, Brock Osweiler just posted 239 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions. The Lions do get after the quarterback, as they have the highest sack percentage in the NFL, but it hasn’t mattered much with their secondary struggling. Let’s say you should be cautiously optimistic about Wilson, who is a mid-to-low-end QB1 this week.
Matthew Stafford: We talked last week about how the Dolphins had been a solid pass defense and that Stafford’s ceiling might be a bit limited, though I didn’t think he’d throw the ball just 22 times. The run-game played lights out, leaving the passing-game with little to do. The Seahawks have been a much better defense than most expected, even after losing Earl Thomas, as they’ve allowed just 463 combined passing yards and one touchdown to Jared Goff and Derek Carr combined. There were some factors that may have helped, though. The Rams were down both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp for half that game, so Todd Gurley scored three touchdowns. Then Amari Cooper was injured very early in the game, leaving Carr to throw to Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, and Seth Roberts, so it’s hard to say they are great just yet. Stafford and the trio of wide receviers will put them to the test while at home, but it’s not the great matchup you would’ve thought. The Seahawks haven’t allowed a quarterback to finish better than QB20 since way back in Week 1 when Case Keenum did it, but to be fair, they’ve also had one of the easiest quarterback schedules. I’m still comfortable plugging Stafford in as a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for this game.
RBs
Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny: It’s tough to ever feel confident with this backfield, because just when you think you’ve found something, they go another direction. Let me explain in the chart below:
| Week | Carson | Penny | Davis |
| 1 | 10 | 11 | DNP |
| 2 | 6 | 10 | 4 |
| 3 | 34 | 3 | 1 |
| 4 | DNP | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | 20 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 | 14 | 11 | 7 |
It’s clear that Carson is going to have a role, but that role has clearly diminished over the last couple weeks. The Lions have been a team you can run the ball on, as they’ve already allowed three 100-yard rushers against them and are allowing just over 6.0 yards per carry. Opponents are averaging 26.2 carries per game against the Lions, so there should’ve been enough work to potentially deliver two fantasy relevant running backs, however there’s a new wrinkle in the fold… Defensive tackle Damon Harrison was acquired by the Lions this week and he’s been one of (if not) the best run-stuffers in the league the last five years. We don’t know how quickly he’ll be thrown into the mix, but he’ll surely help. The Seahawks coming off a bye week also delivers more uncertainty, as they could’ve decided to feature Penny in that time. You should approach this backfield with caution, but I’ll stick with Carson as the best back to play and a high-end RB3 in this game, while Penny is a risk/reward RB4 who just might surprise. Some may wonder about Mike Davis, but as we saw in Week 6, they cannot put Penny as the No. 3 running back on the depth chart with the draft equity they used on him.
Kerryon Johnson and LeGarrette Blount: There are many fantasy players going nuts over Johnson, and rightfully so. He’s been fantastic over the last four games, racking up 384 yards on 56 carries (6.86 yards per carry) in that time, though he’s got just one touchdown to show for it. Many fantasy owners are begging for that to change, but Johnson himself has said he’s a timeshare back and that he doesn’t want to touch the ball 25 times per game. He may be one of those running backs who is better when getting a breather from time-to-time. The Seahawks may be getting linebacker K.J. Wright back from injury this week (they’ve been without him all year), so that might help their already stout run defense that’s allowed just one top-12 performance all year, and it was to Todd Gurley, so does that even count? Outside of Gurley, they’ve allowed just one rushing touchdown on the year while playing a pretty good stable of running backs (Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard/Tarik Cohen, Marshawn Lynch). It would definitely help Johnson’s projection if Theo Riddick were to sit out again, but even then, Johnson should be considered a middling RB2 play against the Seahawks. Meanwhile, Blount should be left out of lineups, as the Seahawks just aren’t generous on the goal-line. Update: Riddick has been ruled out once again, so Johnson can be played as a middling RB2 in what is a tough matchup.
WRs
Doug Baldwin: Not only did Baldwin have an extra week to get healthy, but he’d already proved he was healthy by racking up six catches for 91 yards in a game Wilson threw the ball just 23 times. We talked about it prior to that game, as Baldwin looks like his normal self out there on the field, and it was only a matter of time before the targets started coming again. Wilson isn’t going to throw the ball 21 and 23 times maybe ever again this season, so Baldwin’s role should continue to grow. The Lions typically have Darius Slay shadow the opposing No. 1 receiver, but he doesn’t travel into the slot, which is where Baldwin runs roughly 65 percent of his routes. That means he’ll see Teez Tabor a lot of the time, the Lions second-round pick last year who’s looking more and more like a bust. He’s only seen 29 career targets in coverage, but he’s allowed 227 yards and three touchdowns on them. While he has been in and out of the lineup, the Lions have really struggled to find a solution. Not only did Danny Amendola stack up 6/84/1 against them last week, but it was Marquez Valdes-Scantling totaling 7/68/1 the prior week. Playing inside a dome on turf should prove to make Baldwin’s route-running even better, so plug him in as a rock-solid WR2 with upside in this game.
Tyler Lockett: After scoring nine touchdowns on the first 206 targets of his career, Lockett has now scored five touchdowns on 32 targets this year. Can someone say sell-high? His career rate coming into this year was pretty solid, too, but his touchdown every 6.2 targets is obviously unsustainable. He’s yet to crack 100 yards on the season, so it’s not as if those touchdowns are being accompanied by yardage. He hasn’t seen more than six targets since back in Week 2, so he’s essentially going to become a touchdown-or-WR5 type option with Baldwin back. He’s caught just three passes in each of the last two games, but as we’ve discussed, Wilson’s volume has been down in those games. The Lions secondary is allowing the third-most fantasy points per target this season and it’s unlikely they have Darius Slay shadow Lockett, who moves into the slot nearly half the time. That will allow Lockett to get a plus-matchup (similar to Baldwin), making him a solid low-end WR3 this week.
David Moore: Is he a thing? It’s a question I’ve been asked, but considering he’s seen just seven targets over the last two weeks, it’s hard to say. While that’s not a lot of volume, Wilson threw the ball a combined 44 times in those two games, which gives Moore a 15.9 percent target share. But he is sharing time with both Brandon Marshall and Jaron Brown, who ran a combined 17 routes in Week 6 while Moore ran 13 routes. He’s exclusively a perimeter wide receiver, so he’ll see Darius Slay and Nevin Lawson all day, which are the best two players in the Lions secondary. Moore is not on the season-long radar in this matchup, and as long as he keeps splitting snaps with Marshall and Brown, he’s going to be touchdown-or-bust.
Kenny Golladay: He’s the Lions No. 1 receiver and they kind of proved it in Week 7 when they played him in the slot on 12 of his 21 routes. That’s much higher than the 29.5 percent of slot routes he ran before their bye week. The fact that they’re moving him around in order to create mismatches will make it more difficult for defenses to gameplan against him. The Seahawks don’t really have a standout cornerback who’s a must-avoid, but Golladay will primarily see Shaquill Griffin when on the perimeter. Griffin showed promise his rookie year, but has been struggling a bit his sophomore season, allowing a team-high 69.4 percent catch-rate in his coverage, though he’s only allowed one touchdown. The Seahawks will trust him one-on-one with wide receivers at times throughout the game, so Golladay will get his chances. Consider him a rock-solid WR2 every week and this matchup should be no different. There have been four receivers who’ve seen eight or more targets against the Seahawks… all of them scored at least 18.3 PPR points.
Marvin Jones: He’s now totaled just seven receptions over the last three games and has not reached 70 yards in a game this year. He’s become the “deep guy” of the offense, which brings a lot of volatility to his fantasy outlook. His average depth of target sits at 15.6 yards, while Golladay is at 11.6, and Tate at just 6.3 yards. Knowing that Earl Thomas, the captain of the back-end of that defense, is out, Tedric Thompson will have to keep an eye over the top of the defense because if Jones is left in man-coverage one-on-one, Stafford will give him an opportunity. There may be an issue that we don’t really know about with Jones, as he’s averaging just 2.0 yards of separation, which is the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL right now. He’s always been someone who comes down with tightly-contested jump balls, so it’s possible it’s nothing, but knowing his targets are down, maybe it’s something. It’s tough to consider him anything more than an upside WR4 right now, though he comes with more upside than most in his range.
Golden Tate: He’ll be meeting up with his former team in this game, and it’ll be the third time he’s done that since leaving. In the first two matchups with them, he totaled just 3/29/0 and 3/25/0, so maybe the Seahawks know how to defend him? Their defense looks a lot different now than it did back in 2015 and 2017, so it’s not quite the same, but it is the same defensive scheme. Former undrafted free agent Justin Coleman has been defending the slot, but he’s struggled as of late, allowing 13-of-17 passes to be completed for 112 yards and a touchdown over the last two games. He’s allowed just 8.6 yards per reception while keeping the play in front of him, but an interesting fact about him is that 148-of-154 yards he’s allowed in coverage this year have come after the catch. That’s 96 percent, while no other cornerback has allowed more than 76 percent. Tate is one of the league’s best receivers after the catch, averaging 6.9 yards, which ranks ninth among wide receivers with 20-plus targets. Because of that, it’s hard not to like Tate against Coleman, so plug him in as a high-floor WR2 in this matchup.
TEs
Ed Dickson: It seems like Dickson is on track to play this week, as is Nick Vannett. We have no idea how the Seahawks will split the snaps between the two, but knowing Vannett was a disappointment early in the season, we’re likely going to see more Dickson. The Lions have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, and that’s despite tight ends averaging just 5.0 targets per game against them. They’ve allowed three touchdowns to them this year, though two of them were to backups and not the starter. It’s difficult to trust either Dickson or Vannett considering we don’t know who will play what snaps, so just avoid this situation until we get a sample size.
Luke Willson: Many will be asking why Michael Roberts isn’t here, but it’s because he played just 19 snaps last week compared to 41 snaps for Willson. While I won’t say it’s not a possibility that Roberts becomes their top tight end because they did draft him in the fourth-round last year, but his snaps haven’t increased to the point where you should trust him. Not that Willson is any better with his nine targets through six games, but it essentially means you can just ignore them. The Seahawks have a good strong safety in Bradley McDougald, and he’s been taking away opponents’ tight end, allowing just one top-12 performance on the season, and it was to Trey Burton who caught a shuffle pass for a touchdown (had just 20 yards that game). We’ll re-visit the snap counts next week, but I’m not playing a Lions tight end.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 53.5
Line: CIN by 4.0
QBs
Jameis Winston: Here’s some notes from my weekly buy/sell piece on the site: You want to attach yourself to quarterbacks who have elite options to throw to (he does), a below-average run game (he does), and while having a lackluster defense that puts them in a lot of shootouts (he does). Think about what a bad defense did for Matt Ryan, who was perceived to be a streaming quarterback coming into the season. His lack of run-game over the last two years and lackluster defense has led to him throwing for 4,147 yards in his last 13 full games, which comes to 319.0 yards per game. His touchdowns haven’t aligned with the yardage and he’s still making mistakes, but he’s a great fantasy option. The Bengals defense is in complete meltdown mode, as they’ve now allowed a top-13 quarterback performance in 6-of-7 games. The only quarterback who failed to post respectable numbers was Ryan Tannehill, who may have been playing through a bad shoulder injury. The Bengals defense is banged-up and it’s led to 5-of-7 quarterbacks throwing for at least 319 yards. The Bengals offense should have enough firepower to score on the Bucs, turning this into a potential shootout. Winston is a solid QB1 this week and someone who comes with a high floor considering the lack of run-game and defense.
Andy Dalton: What in the world happened to Dalton last week? He failed to show up, though the Chiefs defense has been playing better as of late. The play-calling was weak, as they’re failing to involve Mixon in the passing-game, which is a massive mistake, as it would completely change the looks Dalton would see. The Bucs matchup will be one where the Bengals should be able to do a lot of different things, as the Bucs just held their first quarterback under 334 yards passing. Even though they did hold Baker Mayfield to just 215 yards, he was still able to throw two touchdowns and finish as a top-six fantasy play. Nick Foles was the only quarterback to play the Bucs and not finish as a top-10 option. The change in defensive coordinator seemed to help a bit last week, but they simply do not have the talent to contain what the Bengals skill position players have to offer. Knowing they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards (crazy, right?), it’ll be on Dalton to move the ball, so get him back into lineups as a solid QB1 who should deliver big results.
RBs
Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber: This is going to be a nightmare until we hear the Bucs announce that they’re moving forward with Jones as the starter. We know it’s happening eventually, so why delay the inevitable? Jones scored the first rushing touchdown of the year for the Bucs last week, so that had to earn him some trust, right? He played 29 snaps last week, while Barber played 35, and Jacquizz Rodgers played 30. Touches have been quite valuable for running backs against the Bengals, as they’ve allowed a massive 1.82 PPR points per touch to them, which ranks as the fifth-most in the league. The addition of Vontaze Burfict hasn’t helped, either, as they’ve allowed 369 yards and three touchdowns on 62 carries the last three weeks. They’ll be without linebacker Nick Vigil once again, and obviously Ryan Glasgow (who is on IR), so we could see some better overall numbers for the Bucs run-game this week. We must pay attention to the tea leaves this week as we lead up to the game, so I’ll try and update this paragraph on Saturday morning. For now, let’s consider Jones a low-end RB3, while Barber is just a desperation RB4. Update: Barber was held out of practice on Wednesday, but did return to a full practice by the end of the week, so the situation is still cloudier than we’d like.
Joe Mixon: The Bengals seem to have no idea the player Mixon is. During my scouting process on him, I felt like he’d walk into the NFL and be a receiving presence like Le’Veon Bell or Matt Forte, as he’s got soft hands, and moves extremely well in the open-field. The Bengals continue to use him like a bruising running back, but he’s not Kareem Hunt, it’s not who he is. After seeing seven targets in Week 1, he’s totaled just 17 targets since and they haven’t been designed plays to get him in the open-field. Does that change any time soon? We saw it in Week 1 and we saw it in the preseason, so there’s hope. The Bucs have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards this season, which cause for concern, but here’s the odd part… they have allowed the most fantasy points per touch to running backs this season. How is that possible? Well, because they’ve only faced 19.2 rushing attempts per week, but they’ve allowed nine total touchdowns to running backs through six games. On top of that, they just lost stud linebacker Kwon Alexander for the year, and after being held out last week, Gerald McCoy missed practice once again on Wednesday. Both Alvin Kamara and Tarik Cohen eclipsed 100 receiving yards against them, so it’d be wise for the Bengals to get Mixon back involved in the passing game. Knowing he’s seeing over 80 percent of their RB touches when in the lineup, Mixon needs to be plugged-in as an RB1.
WRs
Mike Evans: He’s been a bit more volatile than in years past, but that’s because there’s just so much talent around him. The good news is that he’s still seen at least nine targets in 4-of-6 games and has topped 100 yards in three games. The Bengals secondary is struggling to contain much right now, as there have been 10 wide receivers who’ve posted top-36 numbers against them. It has seemed like William Jackson has turned things around, as he’s allowed just 26 yards on 10 targets over the last three weeks, but he’s not shadowing anyone. Evans plays on his side over half the time, so that’ll be his primary matchup. Evans has been dominating cornerbacks in man coverage because his catch radius is so wide, and he uses his athleticism well. It should be a good matchup between the two, though Evans will see the other cornerbacks, too. Consider him a low-end WR1 who you should probably stay away from in cash lineups, as the matchup with Jackson isn’t an easy one. I’d have no issue throwing him in a few tournaments, though.
Chris Godwin: We’ve seen odd snap counts for Godwin throughout the year, going from second on the team to fourth the very next week, but it was good to see him on the field for 66 snaps against the Browns, while Jackson played 43 snaps, and Adam Humphries played 57 snaps. It seems that Jackson is the one losing snaps to Godwin, and not Humphries, which is odd to say the least. With Winston, Godwin has been targeted 15 times the last two weeks, turning them into 11 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. He’s still yet to top 74 yards in a game, but what’s the difference between someone like him and Tyler Lockett, who is widely considered a WR3 by many? He’s going to see a mixture of all cornerbacks in coverage, so there’s not one specifically we need to reference. The concern is that wide receivers have had just eight red zone touches against the Bengals, which ranks as the eighth-fewest in the league, and that’s where Godwin has done most his damage. He remains an upside WR4 who still relies on touchdowns a bit much.
DeSean Jackson: While I don’t want to call it a trend, Jackson played just 45 percent of the snaps last week, while Godwin played a season-high 70 percent of snaps. Jackson did score a rushing touchdown and there were two other deep passes that he and Winston just failed to connect on, which was a similar story last year. Jackson will see a lot of Dre Kirkpatrick in coverage this week, which is a really good thing. He runs a 4.5-second 40-yard-dash, is allowing a massive 17.0 yards per catch, and has allowed three receiving touchdowns on the season. Two of the touchdowns he’s allowed have been on go routes, which is the route Jackson has been targeted the most this year. The snaps are concerning, but he should be in lineups as an upside WR3.
A.J. Green: He’s like a fine wine that only gets better with age. Green is so fun to watch, as he’s seemingly always open, similar to Julio Jones. He’s now seen at least 10 targets in each of the last three games and will now match-up with a Bucs secondary that’s been demolished by all pass-catchers. Through six games, they’ve already allowed 100 receptions to wide receivers, something only five other teams have done through seven games. There’s been five wide receivers who’ve seen double-digit targets against them, here are their totals: Michael Thomas 16/180/1, Julio Jones 10/143/0, Nelson Agholor 8/88/1, JuJu Smith-Schuster 9/116/0, and Jarvis Landry 10/97/1. You don’t need me to tell you to play Green as an elite WR1. The question becomes, how much DFS exposure should you have? Well, I wouldn’t want to not have him in a lineup.
Tyler Boyd: After his back-to-back 100-yard games in Weeks 3-4, Boyd has failed to surpass 62 yards, though his two touchdowns against the Steelers were definitely welcomed by fantasy owners. We’re going to write-off the Chiefs game as just an off-week for the offense, as Boyd also had the toughest matchup on the field. This week will be different, as he’s matched-up with rookie cornerback M.J. Stewart, who has allowed 29-of-34 passing for 330 yards and five touchdowns in his coverage this year. He was thrusted into the starting lineup out of necessity, so it’s not as if they have another option. You need to get Boyd back into lineups as a low-end WR2 who should deliver.
TEs
O.J. Howard: Every time I sit down and watch Howard, I think to myself just how good he can be, though we may not see his true ceiling with so many pass-catchers in Tampa Bay. He’s a solid blocker who can stay on the field no matter the play-call, but his athleticism as a receiver is off the charts. He’s now totaled at least 54 yards in every full game he’s played this year, including 9/129/1 over the last two weeks with Winston under center. The Bengals have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and it didn’t help that they were without Shawn Williams last week against Travis Kelce. Williams is likely back this week, which is a big difference-maker, as three of the six tight ends who’ve scored double-digit PPR points against the Bengals did so while he was out of the lineup. Don’t forget he was ejected on the Colts first possession in Week 1, allowing both Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron finish as top-eight tight ends. If Williams is out, Howard is an elite-level TE1. Even if he plays, Howard should still be played as a middling TE1 who comes with upside.
C.J. Uzomah: There’s been just two targets that have been directed Uzomah’s way that have hit the ground this year, as he’s boasting an 89.5 percent catch rate. The Bucs have officially allowed a top-12 tight end in every game they’ve played, including five 15-plus PPR point performances. That’s hard to do, even on purpose. The Bucs are starting rookie Jordan Whitehead at safety after Chris Conte was sent to injured reserve, which only adds to the appeal. The combination of Whitehead and Justin Evans has allowed 20-of-23 passing for 226 yards and two touchdowns in their direct coverage. Uzomah has been the No. 10 tight end in PPR leagues since Tyler Eifert got hurt, so there’s little reason to doubt him as a TE1 this week. If you’re looking to save some money in cash lineups, Uzomah is your answer.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Total: 46.0
Line: CHI by 6.5
QBs
Sam Darnold: It’s fair to say that it’s been a learning experience for Darnold, who was thrown into the fire right from the get-go. He’s now had three games with multiple interceptions and is now heading into a matchup with the Bears defense, though they haven’t been as scary the last two weeks. It may have something to do with Khalil Mack coming back down to earth, as the secondary is doing a terrible job defending after the catch. Of the 657 yards the Bears have allowed the last two weeks, just 241 of them were before the catch. That’s a whopping 64 percent of yards after the catch. On average, teams allow roughly 46 percent of yards after the catch. The Jets offensive line has allowed Darnold to be sacked 16 times through seven games, and at least twice in all but one game. He’s also going to be without his starting center Spencer Long. The Bears are likely to bring pressure in order to force the rookie into some bad decisions. If Darnold had any receivers who could make something after the catch, I might be open to the possibility of him in 2QB leagues, but he doesn’t, so he’s not. And no, Rishard Matthews isn’t going to change that after being with the team for less than a week.
Mitch Trubisky: I mentioned last week that some time in the near future, Trubisky’s numbers will catch-up with his actual play on the field. His ability to scramble was incredible last week, as he posted two of the best rushing plays for a quarterback this season. However, his accuracy has been terrible. He completed a season-low 52 percent of passes with two interceptions, and there could’ve been two more that were flat-out dropped. It seems he may be without Allen Robinson this week, but against the Jets, he should deliver another usable fantasy performance. They’re fourth in the league with 10 interceptions and have allowed just a 4.6 percent touchdown rate (13th-lowest), but they’ve still managed to allow four quarterbacks to throw for at least 286 yards. They’ve also been slipping as of late, allowing 10 touchdown passes in their last four games, though each quarterback has thrown the ball at least 38 times. They’ve been missing Trumaine Johnson for much of that time, so that definitely doesn’t help. He didn’t practice at all last week, so we don’t know if he’ll be available for this game either. They also lost starting safety Marcus Maye during the Week 6 win over the Colts. The Bears and Matt Nagy have placed their trust in Trubisky while they’ve been lacking a run-game, so he should be on the high-end QB2 radar against the Jets.
RBs
Isaiah Crowell: The Jets placed Bilal Powell on injured reserve, which now means Crowell will get the workhorse load against the Bears, though that hasn’t been very profitable for a lot of running backs this year. There’s been eight running backs who’ve totaled at least 10 carries against the Bears, yet just two of them have been able to score more than 12.9 PPR points. David Johnson was one (totaled 13.0 of 16.1 PPR points through the air) and James White was the other (25.7 of 29.7 PPR points through the air). As you can see, getting it done on the ground hasn’t been what’s supported running backs against them. With Powell going down last week, Crowell tied a season-high with three targets, so maybe he’ll be involved a bit more. He’s totaled 40 rushing yards or less in five of his last six games, so he’d better hope so. Some will wonder if Trenton Cannon is worth a look, and now that we know Darnold will be without his top two wide receivers, he’s an RB4 option in PPR leagues, though he’s not exciting.
Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen: It seems that Howard has settled in around the 50-60 percent of snaps range, while Cohen makes up the other 40-50 percent. It’s definitely noteworthy, but it also needs to be mentioned that the Bears have been in comeback situations the last two weeks, which favor Cohen’s role. Don’t get me wrong, Cohen is likely the better running back for this system, as Howard used to excel on power runs to the edge, though Matt Nagy has been slow to adapt the run-game to fit Howard’s strengths. There’s been no team who’s topped 20 carries against the Jets over the last three weeks, though when the Broncos, Colts, and Vikings did run the ball, they did it well averaging 5.38 yards per carry. Latavius Murray was able to tag them for two touchdowns last week, though they were missing three defensive starters in that game. Despite the cut in playing time, Howard still has 13 red zone carries on the year, which ranks 16th among running backs, so he’s getting the goal-line carries if they want to take the ball out of Trubisky’s hands. Consider Howard a middling RB2 who should have positive gamescript in this game, while Cohen remains a high-floor low-end RB2 (high-end RB2 in PPR) who would get a bump if Robinson can’t play.
WRs
Robby Anderson: We all know what Anderson is to the Jets offense – he’s the deep threat. The issue is that Darnold hasn’t been one to take big shots down the field very often, which is why Anderson now has less than 45 yards in 6-of-7 games. He’s also not one to get it done after the catch, so it’s not like he can take a screen to the house like Albert Wilson did two weeks ago. Oddly enough, Anderson hasn’t seen a single red zone target through seven games. He’s going to match-up with both Kyle Fuller and Prince Amukamara, who are decent in coverage, but the area of the Bears defense that’s been struggling as of late is the safety position, as Eddie Jackson and Adrian Amos have missed nine tackles the last two weeks. They had just two missed tackles in the first four games, but again, Anderson isn’t a YAC guy, so he’s just a boom-or-bust WR5 option against the Bears. The only wide receivers who have scored more than 8 PPR points against the Bears have been those who’ve seen at least seven targets, something Anderson’s seen once this year. Update: Anderson is listed as doubtful for this game and is highly unlikely to play.
Jermaine Kearse: If you tuned into the livestream on Sunday morning, I talked about the concern with Kearse after Terrelle Pryor was cut from the team. They signed Deonte Burnett, who is a slot-only receiver, leading me to believe that Kearse was going to move back to the perimeter, which was not good for his projection. Oddly enough, he still ran over 70 percent of his routes from the slot, though he was targeted just twice all game. It’s safe to say that you shouldn’t be trusting Kearse in fantasy lineups when there’s this much of an extreme in his week-to-week projection, as he had seen 10 targets the prior week. The Bears have Bryce Callahan covering the slot, who is better than your average one, so he’s not someone the Jets should feel the need to exploit.
Allen Robinson: They’re calling Robinson day-to-day with a groin injury, and after he sat out much of the final minutes against the Patriots in a close game, my guess is that he won’t play this week. Even if he does, it’d be difficult to trust him as he was extremely inefficient trying to play through the injury, catching just 1-of-5 targets for four yards. He’d have a plus-matchup provided Trumaine Johnson missed another week (didn’t practice at all last week), meaning he’d see a mixture of Darryl Roberts, Morris Claiborne, and either Buster Skrine or Parry Nickerson. The Jets have now allowed 13 wide receivers to post double-digit PPR games, so if Robinson is able to get in a full practice and suit up, he should be looked at as a risky WR3 in a great matchup. Update: Robinson got a limited practice in on Friday and is listed as questionable, but he’s still someone who is more 50/50, so make sure you pay attention to the inactive lists on Sunday morning.
Taylor Gabriel: We knew that Gabriel had a tough matchup with Jason McCourty last week, as he had the speed to hang with Gabriel, and on top of that, Trubisky was lacking any sort of touch in that game. This week, Gabriel is going to see a lot of both Morris Claiborne and Darryl Roberts, who both lack the game-breaking speed, especially Claiborne. Knowing that their starting free safety Marcus Maye is likely out, it presents opportunity for Gabriel to get behind the defense. With Allen Robinson either out or likely limited, Gabriel is going to see plenty of opportunities this week, making him a relatively safe WR3 who comes with some serious upside. Don’t forget that prior to the Patriots game, he’d averaged 7.3 targets in the last four games.
Anthony Miller: If someone… anyone from the Bears organization is reading this, please utilize Miller this week in what is likely the best matchup of the season. Last week was a good one and while some will look at his two-catch, 35-yard performance and say “no, thanks,” I urge you to go back and watch the game. On one occasion, Miller had multiple yards of separation 15 yards up the field and Trubisky threw the ball three yards behind him, hitting the defender in the back. Another occasion, Miller had Jonathan Jones beat for a 40-plus yard touchdown, but Trubisky underthrew him by multiple yards and the ball was intercepted. This week, he’s got another great matchup on his hands with either Buster Skrine or Parry Nickerson in the slot, and those two have been terrible to this point, allowing 44-of-57 passes to be completed for 532 yards and three touchdowns. Even if Robinson plays, Miller needs to be involved heavily in the gameplan and could be considered as an emergency WR4/5 option who’s available in over 90 percent of leagues. He’s going to be in some of my tournament lineups.
TEs
Chris Herndon: We’ve talked about Herndon seemingly every single week here in The Primer, so it was not surprising to us who saw him get the production the last two weeks. Did we think he’d total seven targets for 4/42/1? Probably not, but we know he has been running the majority of pass routes for the team. With the lack of receiving options, it seems they’ll rely on him a bit more than they did at the start of the season. The Bears have allowed four top-12 performances to tight ends this year, but there’s an asterisk next to them because none of them have finished with more than 49 yards, which should tell you that they all scored touchdowns. Do you want to bank on Herndon scoring a touchdown for the third week in a row? I’m not betting on that considering he’s still seen just 12 targets over the last five games. He’s on the TE2 radar, but that’s about it.
Trey Burton: We finally saw Burton utilized the way we all expected in Week 7, as he totaled season-highs in targets (11), receptions (9), and yards (126). It was a great matchup against the Patriots, while the matchup with the Jets is a bit tougher. They’ve still yet to allow a tight end more than four receptions, though they’ve had one of the easiest schedules against the position. Still, Jamal Adams has done a great job in coverage this year and deserves some respect. They’re a middle-of-the-pack defense against tight ends, but Burton may see more targets than they’re used to, as just one tight end has seen more than four targets against them, and that was Eric Ebron who caught 4-of-7 targets for 71 yards and a touchdown in Week 6. With Allen Robinson looking less than 100 percent (may not even play at all), Burton should see a minimum of five targets in this game, making him a TE1, though it’s not a slam dunk matchup.