There are many people who ask me what the biggest advantage is in fantasy football. It’s really a hard question to answer, as there are so many avenues, but if I had to narrow it down to one thing, I’d say Twitter. Why? Because while fantasy football does come down to luck at times, the other times it comes down to knowledge.
When connected on Twitter, not only do you get notifications from me when new articles and rankings go up, but I’ll also try to give you tidbits here and there about fascinating facts I find throughout the week. Some hear Twitter and think, “Oh no, social media,” but I promise you that I don’t use Twitter for anything other than football. You can follow those you want to, and you won’t receive friend requests. Heck, don’t tell your friends about your account. You’re there for football news and you don’t need it clouded with Tony letting you know where he went out clubbing on Friday night.
The fact that you’re here tells me you want to win and gain the knowledge edge in fantasy football, so go ahead and do it, follow me @MikeTagliereNFL and then decide who else you’ll want to follow. I’d suggest @RapSheet and @AdamSchefter as the first two, after me, of course.
Matchup Links:
Titans at Chargers | Panthers at Eagles | Vikings at Jets | Patriots at Bears | Bills at Colts | Browns at Buccaneers | Texans at Jaguars | Lions at Dolphins | Saints at Ravens | Cowboys at Redskins | Rams at 49ers | Bengals at Chiefls | Giants at Falcons | Broncos at Cardinals
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In case you’ve missed it, I’ve been going back into The Primer on Saturday morning trying to update you on the injury reports that impact your decisions. While I cannot write a whole new article, I do talk about a lot of these things on our Sunday morning livestream, which is FREE to everyone. It’s where I discuss all the latest injury news and then take your questions live from 11-12am EST. Click here to be taken to our YouTube page where you can get notifications when we go live.
If you’re new here, here’s what you can expect out of this article each and every week: Numbers, facts, stats, opinions, and some shenanigans here and there. It’s my unbiased opinion about everyone on your roster. Whether it be season-long advice, DFS advice, or wide receiver/cornerback matchups, it’s all covered. The idea here is to give you as much information as possible and give you as much confidence as possible when you hit that ‘submit lineup’ button each week. Who should be in your lineup this week?
Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (In London)
Total: 45.0
Line: LAC by 6.5
QBs
Marcus Mariota: There are many of Mariota apologists out there who are now saying his elbow is the reason for his struggles, but correct me if I’m wrong, his 344-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Eagles was after his injury. He’s simply not playing well and last week he lost all sense of the pocket, stepping into sacks over and over, seemingly lost. The offensive line melted in front of him, but Mariota is not seeing the field correctly and missing throws left and right, similar to what we saw last year. His tally over his last 20 games now sits at 201.3 yards per game with 15 touchdowns and 19 interceptions. He’s also running into a Chargers defense who’s seemingly starting to find their way on defense after struggling to start the year. They allowed eight passing touchdowns over the first three games, though they did play Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff in two of them. Over the last two weeks, they’ve managed to hold Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield to just 506 yards and two touchdowns combined, while intercepting three passes. Those two are known as far more accurate quarterbacks than Mariota, so this matchup seems to present an issue. On top of that, he’ll be traveling across the country after being sacked 11 times in Week 6. The Chargers themselves have now racked up eight sacks the last two weeks. Mariota isn’t a streaming option in Week 7.
Philip Rivers: With the Chargers defense starting to play better, we’re seeing the effects of that on Rivers’ pass attempts, as he’s now thrown just 47 passes over the last two weeks. In the three games the Chargers defense has allowed 20 or less points, he’s averaged just 24.7 pass attempts per game, which pales in comparison to the 40.0 attempts when they don’t. To give you a gauge, the Titans have scored more than 20 points just once this season, so we’re likely to see limited pass attempts once again. The Titans defense has also stepped-up on the road, holding opponents to just 15.3 points, the second-best road number in the league. While Rivers can make up for some of that with efficiency, 250 yards and two touchdowns isn’t enough to finish as a QB1 in today’s game. He should be considered a middling QB2 who should provide a solid floor, though he lacks a tournament-winning ceiling.
RBs
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: The defense has allowed the Titans offense average 26.5 rushing attempts per game, though they’ve done nothing with them. The duo has combined for just 426 yards and one touchdown on 132 carries, and then 152 scoreless yards on 27 receptions, which amounts to just 62.1 fantasy points on 159 touches, or 0.39 fantasy points per touch. As a mark, Adrian Peterson‘s 0.41 fantasy points per touch was the lowest in the NFL. They’ve been just as bad as you’ve thought. Since Week 1 when he totaled 75 yards on 16 carries, Lewis has totaled just 111 yards on 44 carries (2.52 yards per carry), so his role is understandably diminishing to passing-down work. Henry hasn’t been much better, and the Chargers aren’t a defense to attack via the run. They’ve allowed just one running back to score more than 11.7 PPR points this season and that was Todd Gurley, who pretty much demolishes everyone he plays. Getting defensive tackle Corey Liuget back the last two weeks has been a welcomed addition, as they’ve held Marshawn Lynch to just 9/31/0 and Carlos Hyde to just 14/34/0 on the ground. Henry is someone who can arguably be cut from fantasy rosters, but it’s hard to find running backs who’ve produced the way he has in the past on the waiver wire. He’s not playable in this matchup. The Chargers have allowed Jalen Richard 6/53/0 and Duke Johnson 4/73/0 through the air the last two weeks, so Lewis does at least offer RB4 potential as he’s seen 27 of the 33 running back targets. Mariota needs some confidence building passes, so they’d be wise to get Lewis involved.
Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: It’s a home game where Gordon is a big favorite, what’s not to like, right? Well, the Titans defense may have allowed two touchdowns to Alex Collins last week, but that was an outlier in what’s been a tough run defense the last two years. Prior to that game, they’d allowed just four rushing touchdowns in their last 21 games. They did allow five receiving touchdowns to running backs last year, something Gordon has done seven times himself over the last two years, so there’s other avenues for production. But there have been some warning signs for this run defense, as they’ve now allowed at least 97 rushing yards in 5-of-6 games, and a large part of that is due to the fact that their defense is on the field a lot, as opposing offenses average the fourth-highest time of possession in the NFL against them. Despite that, the Titans have still allowed the seventh-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. It’s not a great matchup for the Chargers running backs, and although you’re still playing Gordon as an RB1 every week, it’s a week to limit exposure in DFS. Ekeler has now totaled seven touches in each of the last two games, which will make him touchdown or bust most weeks, though his offense provides more scoring opportunities than most, keeping him on the RB4 radar.
WRs
Corey Davis: After his nine-catch, 161-yard outburst against the Eagles in Week 4, Davis has totaled just five catches for 73 yards over the last two games combined. His 10 targets during those games may not seem like much, but knowing Mariota threw the ball just 41 times might change your mind, as it’s still near a 25 percent target share. Of the six quarterbacks to play the Chargers, five of them have totaled at least 33 pass attempts. The only one who didn’t was Patrick Mahomes, who didn’t need to because he threw four touchdowns on 27 attempts. This should be a game where Mariota throws the ball 30-plus times, which means Davis will see enough targets to be considered, even in a tough matchup with Casey Hayward. After a rough start to the season, it seems Hayward has turned a corner and got back to his former self who was considered one of the best cornerbacks in the league in 2016 and 2017 when he allowed a sub-60 QB Rating in his coverage. Davis is on the low-end WR3 radar due to the volume, but he’s not one you should be very excited about his prospects this week.
Taywan Taylor: He got behind the tough Ravens defense last week for what should have been a long touchdown, but Mariota overthrew him by a good five yards. Going from nine targets in the game against the Eagles to just five targets in Week 5 and two targets in Week 6, Taylor is slipping off the radar. He’s going to see Trevor Williams in coverage while Davis sees Casey Hayward, so it’s an upgrade, but it’s hard to like him more than a WR6 punt-play with such low volume. Williams has been bad in coverage this year, which is quite different from his 2017 season, but he’s been picked on with Hayward playing better. On the season, he’s allowed 20-of-27 passing for 304 yards and three touchdowns. Of the 78 cornerbacks who’ve seen at least 20 targets in coverage, Williams has allowed the ninth-highest QB Rating. Taylor is someone you can toss into a tournament lineup as a one-percenter, but you can’t play someone who’s playing with a struggling quarterback and has seen seven targets the last two weeks confidently.
Keenan Allen: I’ve been saying it for a few weeks, but there’s going to be an Allen explosion here at some point. He’s tied for 14th in targets (51), 12th in receptions (36), and 18th in yards (434). He’s scored just one touchdown, though, leaving many dissatisfied with his performance. His quarterback has the sixth-highest touchdown percentage in the league, so it’s only a matter of time. Don’t forget that Allen was the No. 30 fantasy receiver after 10 weeks last season, only to finish No. 3 behind only Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. The Titans secondary has allowed four 100-yard receivers this year, though none of them have been primary slot receivers, which Allen is. Their slot cornerback Logan Ryan has played phenomenally through six games, allowing just 124 yards on 18 targets in coverage. But here’s the thing – we know the player he is and he’s been playing a bit over his head. Just last year, he allowed a 103.2 QB Rating in his coverage. Allen is the far superior player in this matchup, though the Chargers can choose to attack Malcolm Butler, who’s been beat like a drum all season. Allen needs to stay in lineups as a high-end WR2 who will break-out at some point. He’s a great tournament play knowing his ownership should be suppressed.
Mike Williams: He saw Denzel Ward for most of the game in Week 6, so it’s not shocking to see him finish with just one catch for four yards. The downside here is that he’s now seen four or less targets in four of the last five games, and he’s failed to top 45 yards in each of the last three games. The talent hasn’t suddenly evaporated, so you don’t want to completely abandon the guy who can catch two touchdowns in any given week. The Titans have allowed five receivers to post 93 yards or more against them and all of them were perimeter wide receivers, which Williams is. He’ll see a mixture of both Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler in coverage, but Butler is the one they’ll want to target more often. Williams will see him around 40-45 percent of the time, which is a good thing. Butler has allowed five touchdowns on 41 targets in coverage this year, so we may see Williams pop back up on the WR4 radar this week, though he’ll be ranked as a WR5 with the target risk.
Tyrell Williams: It’s likely that we’re left to choose between Tyrell and Mike every single week, though there may be some weeks where both can post usable numbers. This is not likely one of them considering teams don’t average tons of pass attempts against the Titans. There’s been just one game where their defense has allowed multiple 13-plus point PPR receivers and that was DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, two players who see a lot more targets than the Williams’ do. Many will rush to think that Tyrell is a hot waiver wire pickup, but he’s still yet to see more than five targets in a game, which will make his production extremely sporadic, and it’s the reason he’s failed to total more than 66 yards in 5-of-6 games. He’s going to see Adoree Jackson quite a bit, so he’s in the WR6 column this week.
TEs
Jonnu Smith: So, he caught his first pass in three weeks against the Ravens. Progress, I guess. Still, there’s no tight end in this room who deserves a look on the streaming radar. Carry on.
Antonio Gates: Most don’t know, but Gates has topped out at just 23 snaps over the last five weeks. While I thought it was possible he was being eased back into action, that’s not the case after he played just 16-of-60 snaps against the Browns in Week 6. He’s another one who’s failed to see more than five targets in a game and knowing Rivers is likely to see a dip in attempts this week, he may be down to the 2-3 target window against the Titans defense who haven’t allowed a tight end outside of Zach Ertz more than 4.8 PPR points. Feel free to leave Gates on the waiver wire.
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
Total: 45.0
Line: PHI by 4.0
QBs
Cam Newton: With the defense struggling a bit now having allowed at least 21 points in each of their last four games, Newton is going to be asked to throw more than he would like. It’s why we’ve seen him average 36.0 attempts per game over that stretch, which is much higher than the 30.8 attempts he averaged last year. He’s responded well, throwing at least two touchdowns in each of the games, finishing with no less than 16.4 fantasy points. The Eagles have now played three home games against Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Kirk Cousins, yet they’ve allowed just 238.7 passing yards per game (5.97 yards per attempt) with just two touchdown passes in the three games combined. It’s much different than what they’ve allowed on the road, so it’s an additional factor to weigh in your DFS lineups. The Eagles did allow Luck and Marcus Mariota a combined 79 yards and a touchdown on the ground, which is something that we must pay attention to with Newton, who has averaged 41.6 rushing yards per game. With 10 days rest, the Eagles will be ready and waiting for the Panthers, but Newton is the one who’s got to move the ball, as the run-game will likely struggle. He’s a mid-tier QB1 this week, but one who you shouldn’t feel the need to play in DFS.
Carson Wentz: Their run-game was able to get something going last week, but let’s be real… the Eagles will move the ball through the air the majority of time. The Panthers secondary has shown some high-floor performances ever since they shutout Dak Prescott in Week 1. Since that time, they’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game, which included Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, and Alex Smith. When it comes to Wentz himself, he’s gotten better each week, scoring 11.2, 20.7, 21.0, and then 24.5 fantasy points in his four games. The addition of Jeffery back to the offense has been night and day, and it’s allowed Ertz to see less attention from opposing secondaries. The Panthers have oddly allowed just over 5.0 yards per carry on the season, so it’s possible the Eagles will be able to run the ball, though they’re not built to be a 30-plus carry team. Because of that, Wentz should continue to provide a high floor in fantasy leagues. Consider him a low-end QB1 for this matchup.
RBs
Christian McCaffrey: After racking up 45 carries in his previous two games, McCaffrey went back to his old ways in Week 6 when he saw just eight carries. The Panthers are quick to abandon the run if they fall behind, but it doesn’t matter all that much to McCaffrey considering he’s gamescript-proof. He’s now totaled 105 of the Panthers 126 touches, which is a whopping 83.3 percent. In Week 6, he totaled all 15 running back touches for them. After not allowing a single running back total more than 42 rushing yards through five games, the Eagles did allow rookie phenom Saquon Barkley to go nuts on them last week for 130 yards on just 13 carries. While McCaffrey won’t hit those numbers, the most important numbers are those in the receiving game, as he was the second running back in three weeks who totaled nine receptions against them. Outside of Barkley, they’ve yet to allow a running back to reach 16 PPR points against them. Clearly, McCaffrey is worth much more in PPR formats and should be considered a high-end RB2, but in standard leagues he’s more of a mediocre RB2 this week.
Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood: We saw pretty much what we expected last week, right? Smallwood led the team in snaps with 44, while Clement was eased back in with 26 touches. Apparently Clement was told he needed to prove something before the game to show the front office they didn’t need to trade for a running back. He played really well, so it’s likely why we haven’t heard of one. For Smallwood, here’s the thing… it took injuries to Jay Ajayi, Clement, and Darren Sproles for him to see the field. Considering Doug Pederson doesn’t like to play running backs who don’t practice, it makes sense he gave Smallwood more snaps. I believe Clement is the most valuable back in the offense going forward. The Panthers have been a shutdown run defense under Ron Rivera for quite some time, but have allowed 5.03 yards per carry on the season, though they’ve also played a brutal schedule thus far, facing Saquon Barkley, Giovani Bernard, Ezekiel Elliott, Tevin Coleman, and Adrian Peterson through five games. Still, teams are averaging just 20.8 rushing attempts per game against them, which ranks bottom-five in the NFL. Smallwood should be considered a middling RB3 who will bust without a rushing touchdown (Panthers haven’t allowed one the last two games), while Clement is a similar option, though he comes with a higher floor due to his work in the passing game.
WRs
Devin Funchess: There’s a lot of moving parts around Funchess who fill roles, but he’s the clear No. 1 option in the passing-game, as he’s got 14 more targets than any other Panthers receiver. He’s now seen at least seven targets in each of the last four games, providing a solid fantasy floor. He’ll see a mixture of Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills in this game, but 60 percent of the time, it’ll be Darby. He’s been somewhat of a mixed bag this year, but he’s coming off a game in which he limited Odell Beckham to just one catch for six yards in his coverage. He’s struggled at times, too, but we’re talking about a 24-year-old cornerback who’s allowed a passer rating of just 84.3 in his four-year career. He’s got decent size to hang with Funchess, too, so this isn’t one where you should feel the need to play Funchess if you don’t have to. He should be considered a middling WR4 who can still do his damage away from Darby, provided the Panthers move him over to the right side a tad more.
D.J. Moore: It seems the Panthers want to trust him more but fumbling the ball twice on his first two touches definitely won’t help. He still ranked fourth in snaps behind Funchess, Torrey Smith, and Jarius Wright, but he touched the ball five times for the second consecutive week coming out of the bye. He’s now totaled at least 58 total yards in three of the last four games, so he’s worth a stash on benches who might turn into something if they decide to bump his playing time. He’s playing all over the place, so there isn’t one cornerback he’ll see more than others. The Eagles weakness is most definitely through the air, and specifically via the slot and the left side of the secondary (where Jalen Mills plays), so expect them to try and get the ball in Moore’s hands while in space, as he averages 10.3 yards after the catch, which ranks second in the NFL among wide receivers who have seen at least 10 targets. He’s not the worst punt-play in tournaments, but I’d like to see him play more snaps before trusting him in any capacity.
Alshon Jeffery: What were the Giants thinking last week? They had been using Janoris Jenkins to shadow top receivers all year and then decided Jeffery wasn’t worthy? Maybe they had a philosophy change, but whatever the case was, it didn’t work. We’ll see if the Panthers learned from that, as they’ve used James Bradberry in shadow coverage this year. He’s played really well for the most part with his only flaw being the 131-yards and touchdown he allowed to Odell Beckham when they played a few weeks ago. Prior to that, he’d held Julio Jones to 5/64/0 and A.J. Green to 5/58/0, so it’s not as if he’s a cornerback you can pick-on at will. But here’s the thing – he’ll have to earn his money in this one. The Eagles don’t have a ground-and-pound run-game, so you’re going to see Jeffery get targeted as the top receiver. He’s seen at least eight targets in each of his starts this year, so when you factor in his skill-set, he’s essentially a must-play WR2 regardless of matchup, though he’s on the lower end of that spectrum this week. He’s someone I’d probably avoid in DFS because Bradberry isn’t likely to allow a massive game.
Nelson Agholor: It’s difficult to gauge the Panthers defense against slot receivers, as they’ve been a bit of a mixed bag. From allowing Cole Beasley 7/73/0 and Tyler Boyd 6/132/1, to then holding Mohamed Sanu to 2/19/0 and Sterling Shepard to 4/75/0. It’s likely due to their hit-or-miss cornerback Captain Munnerlyn, a 10-year veteran who’s been inconsistent his entire career. With James Bradberry shadowing Jeffery, it’s not inconceivable to think Agholor would get targeted more, but he’s seen just nine targets the last two weeks combined. With the ups and downs of this matchup, there’s a variety of outcomes, though Agholor should be able to win his matchup most of the time. Consider him a volatile WR4 who has a better matchup than Jeffery.
TEs
Greg Olsen: In his last 10 games, here’s Olsen’s stat line: 51 targets, 26 receptions, 294 yards, and one touchdown. Does that look like must-start material? That’s just 2.6 receptions for 29.4 yards per game. With Funchess, McCaffrey, Moore, Curtis Samuel, and everyone else involved, it’s going to be hard to see Olsen recapture the magic he had from 2012-2016. He’s also said he’ll need foot surgery in the offseason, so there’s clearly an underlying problem. Despite playing against Kyle Rudolph, Eric Ebron, Austin Hooper, and O.J. Howard, the Eagles have allowed just one tight end to top 41 yards, and it was Howard, who did almost all his damage on one 75-yard touchdown catch. Outside of that, he totaled just 2/21/0 in that game. They’ve now been a top-five team against tight ends in two of three seasons under Doug Pederson, so it’s safe to say this isn’t a plus-matchup. Olsen is just a high-end TE2 who you shouldn’t feel is a must-play.
Zach Ertz: We always knew Ertz would be heavily-targeted but he’s now seen 67 targets through six games, which puts him on pace for 179 targets for the season. Over the last five years, there’s been no tight end with more than 142 targets in a season. It’s clear that Ertz is a wide receiver with a tight end designation. I’d mentioned that Ertz would start scoring touchdowns two weeks ago and he’s now scored twice on his last 20 targets, so I take full credit for that. The Panthers have been a matchup to target with opposing tight ends the last few years, as they’ve been bottom-five against the position in two of the last three years. Through five games, they’ve allowed 28-of-38 passes to tight ends to be completed for 297 yards and three touchdowns, and that’s despite just two of those targets being in the red zone. Ertz is an elite TE1 and one who should be considered in all DFS formats.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
Total: 47.0
Line: MIN by 3.0
QBs
Kirk Cousins: After a tremendous start to the year, Cousins has cooled off a bit over the last two weeks, throwing just one touchdown in each game, though it really should’ve been expected considering we knew his attempts would fall from the historical pace they were on. It was only a matter of time before the defense started to play better. While Cousins ranks eighth in touchdown passes (12), he’s just 21st in touchdown percentage (4.6 percent) directly behind Sam Darnold. The Jets defense has been without Trumaine Johnson the last two weeks and it’s shown, as they’ve allowed Case Keenum 377/2 and Andrew Luck 301/4. Even before that, they allowed Blake Bortles to throw for 388 yards and two touchdowns, so feel free to put Cousins back into lineups as a rock-solid QB1 confidently. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re without two of their top three cornerbacks and starting free safety. The Jets aren’t an elite run defense, but they’re good enough to limit the Vikings run-game, meaning Cousins will be the one who moves the ball down the field. His favorite wide receiver also happens to have potentially the best matchup on the field.
Sam Darnold: He’s playing much better as of late, taking advantage of the softer matchups on the schedule, throwing five touchdowns on just 52 pass attempts against the Broncos and Colts. The Vikings are going to present a much tougher matchup, because outside of the one Thursday night game where they needed to travel across the country to Los Angeles, they’ve allowed an average of just 257.8 passing yards and 1.0 touchdown per game. With Robby Anderson surely matched up with Xavier Rhodes and Quincy Enunwa likely out of the lineup, Darnold is likely going to struggle in this game. He’s only been sacked three times the last two weeks, but Minnesota will bring the pressure, as they’ve generated at least three sacks in 5-of-6 games. This is not a week to get cute and trust Darnold as a streamer.
RBs
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: Who knows if Cook will return for this game, but even when he does, how much can we trust him? It’s very likely that even when he returns, it’s a timeshare and not one that is very valuable, considering they just got their first rushing touchdown of the season against the soft Cardinals run defense last week. Murray may have impressed in that game, but the Cardinals had allowed nine running back touchdowns in their first five games. The Jets haven’t been an elite run defense by any means, but they haven’t been walked on, either. Through six weeks, there’s been just three running backs who’ve been able to finish inside the top-30 running backs against them, and each of them scored at least one touchdown. Knowing that rushing touchdowns are hard to come by for this Vikings squad, it’s tough to trust Murray as anything more than an RB3, even if Cook does sit this game out. Update: Cook has been ruled out for this game.
Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell: Is it possible that I’ve found the Amari Cooper of running backs? While Crowell isn’t as talented as Cooper, he’s the running back version of him. He’s had games of 219 and 102 rushing yards, but has totaled 40 yards or less in the other four games. He’s a boom-or-bust option, but he’s still on the RB2/3 radar most weeks because you cannot name 24 running backs who are consistently putting up numbers. Powell is clearly going to be involved every week, as he’s actually edged out Crowell 85-78 in the touch department, though he’s not breaking big plays the way Crowell is, which makes him a bit less valuable, though maybe a bit less volatile as well. If there’s one area of the Vikings offense that hasn’t lost a step, it’s their run defense that’s held every running back not named Todd Gurley to 16 or less PPR points. He’s the only one who’s been able to reach 60 yards on the ground as well, so it’s not a week to expect big things out of Crowell. The Vikings have allowed four running backs to rack up 44 or more receiving yards, though none of them caught more than four passes, so it’s not looking great without a big play for Powell, either. Crowell still has that breakaway potential that keeps him in the RB3 conversation, though he’s far from a sure thing this week. He’s also dealing with an ankle issue that kept him out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday, though he’s listed as questionable. Powell is just a low-upside RB4.
WRs
Adam Thielen: What do you give the No. 1 wide receiver in the game of fantasy who’s totaled 58 receptions through the first six games? A matchup with a backup rookie cornerback? That’s what’s happening in Week 7, as Thielen will match-up with Parry Nickerson, who has been filling in for the injured Buster Skrine. He’s allowed 17/184/2 on just 23 targets in coverage and is ill-equipped to handle Thielen, who has totaled more receptions than any other wide receiver in NFL history over the first six weeks of the season. In fact, he’s just one game away from tying the all-time record for consecutive games with six-plus receptions and 100-plus yards. With the matchup he’s got on his hands, it’s hard to see his streak end here. He’s an elite WR1 every week and this game is no different. It’s hard to say he’s not worth his price-tag in DFS, either.
Stefon Diggs: We knew that his matchup wasn’t great last week, but we also didn’t know the Cardinals would allow Patrick Peterson to shadow him in coverage, something he hasn’t really done this year. Against the Jets, he’s going to have a plus matchup no matter where he’s at on the field, as Morris Claiborne isn’t talented enough to hang with him, while Trumaine Johnson has missed the last two weeks with a quad injury. If he doesn’t return, backup Darryl Roberts will continue to man the LCB station. In short, they don’t have the cornerback talent to cover Diggs, though Thielen has a beautiful matchup as well, which means Cousins can essentially take his pick of the two. Knowing that Diggs was shadowed by Peterson last week, it’s not shocking to see just five targets come his way. Prior to that game, he’d seen at least 10 targets in each of the prior four games, so he needs to be back into lineups as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this week and makes for a solid contrarian play to the highly-owned Thielen.
Robby Anderson: To know the Jets put up 42 points and that Anderson totaled just three catches for 39 yards is disappointing. It’s important to know that he did see five of Darnold’s 30 targets is something to hang your hat on, but his matchup this week isn’t going to make things easy on Darnold. The Vikings will likely put Xavier Rhodes on him, though they could choose to use the speedy Trae Waynes considering he’s got the speed to keep up with Anderson down the field. Rhodes is a very physical cornerback who handles big wide receivers very well, but it’s possible that he’d struggle with Anderson’s speed, so it leaves the door open for a big play. With Enunwa likely out for the week, Darnold will have to continue to search for new targets, and Anderson has seen at least five targets in four of the last five games. He’s not a must-play this week, but he’s one big play away from a solid performance. Consider him a boom-or-bust WR4 in this matchup who is apparently dealing with a hamstring tweak.
Jermaine Kearse: You don’t want to overreact to one highly-targeted game for Kearse, but it’s noteworthy that he received those 10 targets in a game where Enunwa was hurt. He ran 71.4 percent of his routes in the slot last week, which is where Enunwa played when he was seeing all those targets, so it’s fair to say that Darnold prefers slot receivers. Mackensie Alexander is the cornerback who’s been manning the slot for the Vikings, and he’s been tagged for 19/219/0 on just 22 targets in coverage, so it’s a plus-matchup. With the pressure the Vikings bring, it’s likely that Darnold will continue to try and get the ball out safely, so with Kearse’s 9.2 air yards per target being the lowest on the team, he should be the leader in targets this week. He’s not an exciting play, but he should offer a decent floor as a WR4/5-type play.
Terrelle Pryor: The injury to Enunwa allowed Pryor to get back on the field last week where he totaled six targets, racking up 5/57/1 against a beatable Colts secondary. The issue this week is that he’ll see either Xavier Rhodes, who can handle bigger wide receivers, or Trae Waynes, who has the speed to keep up with an athlete like Pryor down the field. It’s unlikely Darnold has time to target his players down the field very much, making Pryor an unenticing fantasy play this week. Update: Pryor is listed as doubtful for this game.
TEs
Kyle Rudolph: We talked about it here a few weeks back, saying that once the Vikings started to lose volume, he’d be the one to suffer the most, as he ranks just 20th in tight ends for target share. He’s still playing in a good enough offense with so little of a run-game that they’ll be throwing the ball 35-plus times most weeks, but know that when they don’t, he’ll suffer. The Jets have had Jamal Adams do most of the coverage on tight ends, which has worked out pretty well for the most part. Eric Ebron did score a touchdown last week, but he was limited to just four catches in a high-scoring game. He was actually the only tight end to record more than two catches against the Jets, making Rudolph a scary play especially when the wide receivers have such good matchups. He remains on the low-end TE1 radar due to the lack of production at the position, but he’s not a great start against the Jets.
Chris Herndon: We’ve been listing Herndon here for weeks, as he’s led them in routes run every week, though the production hadn’t followed. He finally got onto the scoreboard last week with two catches for 56 yards and a touchdown, but the fact remains that he’s still seen just nine targets on the season. The Vikings have been a very giving defense to opposing tight ends, though the competition has been top-notch against them for most of the year. It’s not the worst matchup for a streamer, but Herndon isn’t getting targeted enough to consider him worthy of season-long lineups.
