The Primer: Week 5 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Total: 41.0
Line: SF by 4.0

QBs
Josh Rosen: It’s been a mixed reviews for Rosen to this point, though he’s been an improvement over Sam Bradford. He’s completed just 55.9 percent of his passes, but it doesn’t help that his receivers have dropped three balls. It also doesn’t help that Larry Fitzgerald is out there playing on a bad hamstring. If there’s a “get-right” game for Rosen and the wide receivers, it’s probably right here against a 49ers secondary that’s without Richard Sherman. No quarterback who’s played them has finished with less than 36 pass attempts, which is also likely the reason that none of them have finished with less than 19.7 fantasy points. To be fair, they’ve had a tough start to the season against Cousins, Stafford, Mahomes, and Rivers. Still, they’ve allowed at least two passing touchdowns in every game, including three of them in 3-of-4 games. Their pass-rush hasn’t been doing a great job, either, as they’ve totaled just five sacks over the last three games with just one interception. While the schedule hasn’t been kind, Rosen doesn’t have the weaponry to go out there and throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, making him just a low-end QB2, though it should help his confidence (not that he needs it).

C.J. Beathard: Who would’ve thought that the 49ers would jump out to an early lead against the Chargers last week? Beathard’s final stat-line looked decent (298 yards, 2 touchdowns), but just 145 of his 298 yards came through the air, as his pass-catchers did some work after the catch, including Kittle who totaled 85 of his 125 yards after the catch. Still, Beathard has proven to at least be competent against a defense with a pulse. The Cardinals defense has looked a lot better the last two weeks, holding the combination of Mitch Trubisky and Russell Wilson to just 392 yards and no touchdowns. Their defense is starting to gel under Steve Wilks as they figure things out, so knowing that and that they’ve yet to allow a quarterback reach 20 points, there’s very little reason to play Beathard as a streamer, as the risk is much greater than the reward. He also may be without his field-stretcher Marquise Goodwin, who is dealing with thing and hamstring injuries.

RBs
David Johnson: It was good to see Johnson targeted four times on just 27 pass attempts by Rosen, as the 14.8 percent target share is an improvement. He also carried the ball a season-high 22 times, and though it only netted 71 yards, one of them was a touchdown. Any time they get down in the red zone, it’s likely going to be Johnson with the first few opportunities, as they’re still seeking their first win under Wilks, so they don’t need to put that pressure on their rookie quarterback. The 49ers got a good one in Fred Warner, as he’s really stepped up as what could be a rock-solid linebacker in this league. Rueben Foster hasn’t quite found his groove yet, as he’s looked rusty after his suspension. Last week was the first one the 49ers allowed more than 82 yards on the ground to running backs, but that’s not where Johnson succeeds. The 49ers have now allowed a massive 35 receptions (2nd-most), 269 yards (4th-most), and two touchdowns (3rd-most) to running backs, so the Cardinals should be able to exploit that. If there was a matchup that was made for Johnson to succeed, this may be the one. He should be played as a low-end RB1 whose scoring chances are quite limited.

Matt Breida and Alfred Morris: The timeshare is getting smaller as the weeks go on, as Morris’ snap counts have gone from 35, to 31, to 23, to just 14 in Week 4, which is odd because they led much of that game. It’s clear Kyle Shanahan doesn’t believe Morris is the same back he used to be, so he’s moving forward with Breida, who appears healthy after playing 38-of-60 snaps despite his hyperextended knee that he suffered in Week 3. It was his highest snap-count of the season. This game may seem like one for Morris, but with his low snap counts, he’s best avoided. The Cardinals defense has struggled against the run while they continued to try and find the pieces to fit in Steve Wilks’ system, though they’ve also had a tough start to their schedule facing Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, and Jordan Howard. They’ve still allowed seven rushing touchdowns, which leads the NFL (no one else has allowed more than five), so Breida suddenly looks like a must-play RB2, especially when you consider how often Beathard checks down, which essentially makes Breida gamescript-proof.

WRs
Larry Fitzgerald: Can we all just agree that Fitzgerald shouldn’t be playing through his hamstring injury? It’s nonsense to push a veteran like him through this when his team is 0-4 and in no position to make a playoff run. He’ll see K’Waun Williams in coverage this week, a cornerback who he played against last year and saw seven targets but totaled just 4/32/1 with the touchdown coming in overtime. Rosen looked competent last week and it’s unlikely the 49ers pass-rush will make him any more uncomfortable, so there’s no reason to downgrade Fitzgerald due to his quarterback change. The real issue is his health, making him a risky WR4, but one that you should probably stay away from until we see him practice fully throughout the week.

Christian Kirk: It’s official… Kirk is the highest-scoring Cardinals wide receiver. He may have seen four fewer targets than Fitzgerald, but he’s got one more catch and eight more yards, though neither of them have scored. Kirk is being played all over the field, so he’ll see a mixture of Jimmie Ward, Akhello Witherspoon, and K’Waun Williams. Their secondary hasn’t allowed a receiver over 63 yards the last two weeks, which included Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. It’s tough to recommend Kirk just yet, but he’s creeping onto the radar and should be looked at as a low-upside WR5 for now.

Marquise Goodwin: It seems like Goodwin is unlikely to play this week, as he’s reportedly dealing with both thigh and hamstring issues.  A speed guy with a hamstring injury? No, thank you.

Pierre Garcon: With the injuries to both Goodwin and Dante Pettis, Garcon played 49 snaps in Week 4 and saw a season-high seven targets. He walked away with four catches for 52 yards against the Chargers, and though he struggled against the Cardinals last year (4/36/0), he won’t have to deal with Patrick Peterson nearly as much, as the Cardinals have planted him at LCB, which is where Garcon goes just 45 percent of the time. He’ll see Peterson and Bene Benwikere, who has taken over for the incompetent Jamar Taylor at LCB. Benwikere has been an improvement for sure, allowing just 5.6 yards per target on a small sample size. Garcon is the guy you toss in your lineup if you’re looking for a 4-6 catch, 40-60-yard performance, but he won’t win you a week or anything.

Trent Taylor: If there’s one player who could match Garcon’s floor this week, it’s Taylor who’ll be matched-up with Budda Baker in the slot. I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again… Baker is a great football player, but he’s not a slot cornerback. He’s now allowed 16/147/0 on 19 targets in coverage. With Dante Pettis out, it’s going to be Taylor playing a bigger role, though let’s not pretend he’s a must-play or anything, as his season-high is 28 yards. He’s someone who you can toss in a PPR lineup and reasonably expect 5-8 points this week.

TEs
Ricky Seals-Jones: As I suspected, Seals-Jones has already started to lose snaps to Jermaine Gresham. After playing 135-of-148 snaps the first three weeks (91.2 percent), he played just 39-of-60 snaps (65.0 percent) in Week 4, while Gresham tallied 33 snaps. Seals-Jones did see four targets, so it wasn’t all bad, but he’s going to be a big-play-or-bust tight end every week. The 49ers have allowed a tight end touchdown in every game thus far, though just one tight end has topped 27 yards against them. We are often looking for touchdowns out our streamers, so Seals-Jones should actually be on the radar, but understand that his downside is something like two catches for 25 yards.

George Kittle: We saw Kittle hook-up with his Iowa teammate Beathard for 125 yards and a touchdown last week, though Kittle did a lot of that work after the catch. He saw a team-high eight targets, which now makes it at least seven targets in 3-of-4 games. He’s clearly going to be the favorite for Beathard and for good reason, but is the matchup with the Cardinals a good one? They’ve allowed just 13 receptions (5th-lowest) and 143 yards (5th-lowest) though four games, but they’ve also allowed two touchdowns. The reason to remain hopeful with Kittle is that no tight end has seen more than five targets against them, so it’s not like they’ve been tested quite yet. You should continue plugging Kittle in as a TE1 who is getting too many targets to bench, and this matchup may not be as bad as initially thought.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

Total: 45.0
Line: HOU by 3.5

QBs
Dak Prescott: It’s pretty much been the start to the season that everyone expected out of Prescott from a fantasy perspective. The pass-catching options are terrible, and it’s leaked into his output. It hasn’t mattered much to Texans opponents, though, as they’ve now allowed at least 277 yards and two touchdowns in non-Blaine Gabbert games. It’s been really bad over the last two weeks, as both Eli Manning and Andrew Luck have lit up their secondary for 761 yards and six touchdowns, and it won’t help that they just lost cornerback Aaron Colvin for maybe the year. Now, to be fair, those quarterbacks have better options than Prescott, so we shouldn’t automatically assume he puts up QB1 numbers. But with the Texans defense being so stingy against the run, Prescott will be relied upon more than usual, making him a semi-decent QB2 this week.

Deshaun Watson: He’s back to his high-scoring ways, as he’s now thrown for at least 310 yards and two touchdowns in every contest the last three weeks, though he might have to do it without Will Fuller once again this week, who is dealing with another hamstring injury. The Cowboys defense will be without Sean Lee once again, though that helps the run-game more than it does the passing-game. Still, the run-game has been non-existent for the Texans, which is why you’ve seen Watson chuck the ball 40-plus times the last two weeks. The Cowboys have struggled over the last two weeks, allowing Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford to complete 40-of-56 pass attempts for 499 yards and four touchdowns. We also don’t want to overlook the fact that Cam Newton rushed for 58 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 1. It’s not great that they’ll be getting defensive tackle David Irving back from suspension, but he could be eased back into action. Watson is back to being an every-week start, and the Cowboys defense has been trending in the wrong direction.

RBs
Ezekiel Elliott: After having a dream matchup with the Lions, Elliott gets one of his tougher matchups of the year against the Texans, who have allowed just 3.60 yards per carry with one touchdown on the ground to this point. They have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs, and Elliott has now seen 22 targets on the season, so there’s a different avenue for success. Still, when looking at the weaknesses of the Texans, it’s their cornerbacks by a longshot and the Cowboys have to be able to exploit that. You’re never going to even consider benching Elliott, but this is a game that you’ll probably want to limit your exposure in DFS.

Lamar Miller: It’s been a brutal year for Miller and the run-game to this point, as he’s averaging sub-four yards per carry and has yet to find the end zone. When you’re playing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, who also lost their starting right tackle early in the season, these bad games are bound to happen. We all know about the Cowboys splits with and without Sean Lee by now, right? Last year it was just 3.52 yards per carry with him in the lineup, but 4.88 yards per carry without him in the lineup. Last week, we saw the Lions run the ball just 17 times, though they netted 74 yards and a touchdown on them. The Cowboys do, however, get defensive tackle David Irving back from suspension this week, and that’ll help them. Miller will likely be used a bit more in the passing-game if Fuller is sidelined, so he remains in the low-end RB2 conversation, though he’s not a sexy play by any means.

WRs
Allen Hurns: It hasn’t been a great start to his tenure in Dallas, but Hurns has seen nine targets the last two games after seeing just five the first two weeks. If he can’t get on track in this matchup, there’s some real issues. The Texans are forced to start Johnathan Joseph and Shareece Wright at cornerback, which just might be the worst duo in the league. They lost both Kareem Jackson and Aaron Colvin seemingly for the season, and even with Colvin, they’d allowed at least one 100-yard pass-catcher in 3-of-4 games. In fact, over the last two weeks, they’ve allowed eight pass-catchers to record at least 11.4 PPR points against them. With how well the Texans stack up their front-seven, Hurns could see five-plus targets against this secondary, which should net some fantasy points. He’s an emergency bye week fill-in, but one that might just pan out.

Michael Gallup: It appears that the Cowboys have finally moved on from Deonte Thompson and are going to give Gallup a run as the receiver opposite Hurns. He’s also seen nine targets over the last two weeks, and though it’s been nothing to write home about, he totaled a season-high 45 yards last week. Getting on the field for more snaps and targets is never a bad thing, so he’s someone to keep an eye on this week. It’s not reasonable to start him in season-long leagues, but as someone who might be playing the primetime DFS slate, Gallup isn’t the worst tournament option.

Cole Beasley: After seeing eight targets in the opener, we all wondered if Beasley was going to be the “focal point” of the Cowboys passing attack, but three weeks and 13 targets later, he’s still the same guy. He’s going to see Kayvon Webster in the slot now that Aaron Colvin suffered what could be a season-ending ankle injury. Webster is recovering from an Achilles injury that he suffered last season, so he’s iffy at best. If he can’t go, they move down to Johnson Bademosi, who’s been passed on from team-to-team. It’s a solid matchup for the slot receiver who can be considered as a WR4/5 bye week replacement in PPR formats.

DeAndre Hopkins: Some may see that Will Fuller is likely out as being a good thing for Hopkins, but that hasn’t been the case over the last two seasons. In the 12 games they’ve both played, Hopkins has averaged 104.8 yards and 1.08 touchdowns. In the seven games Fuller missed, Hopkins averaged 80.4 yards and 0.29 touchdowns. It could be coincidental, but Hopkins saw nearly identical targets both with and without Fuller. The Cowboys don’t have a shadow cornerback who’ll follow Hopkins around, so he’ll see both Byron Jones and Chidobe Awuzie quite often, though Jones in particular. Jones is a former first-round pick who is finally living up to his cost, as he hasn’t allowed a single touchdown on his 16 targets in coverage this year. It’s a small sample size, but through four games, the Cowboys haven’t allowed a perimeter wide receiver more than 77 yards, which included games against Devin Funchess, Odell Beckham, and Kenny Golladay/Marvin Jones. Hopkins is going to get targeted 10-plus times, so he’s a must-play WR1, but the Cowboys have done a good job limiting top options to this point.

Keke Coutee: What a debut by the shifty Coutee who saw 15 targets, connecting on 11 of them for 109 yards. While Watson usually isn’t a check-down quarterback, he and Coutee appeared to have a connection. While some will tie Coutee to a high-volume slot receiver, he’s much more than that and presents big-play potential. During the draft process, I compared him to Tyreek Hill, saying he was the lite-version who could be a game-breaker. The Cowboys have had Anthony Brown covering the slot this year, a former sixth-rounder who has allowed a 104.2 QB Rating on the 159 career targets he’s seen in coverage. He is fast, though, which means the quick Coutee may have to play a similar role to the one he did last week, which obviously worked. Knowing they don’t have a tight end to heavily target, Coutee is most definitely on the upside-WR4 radar this week. Update: Coutee popped-up on the injury report with a hamstring and is now questionable for this game. 

TEs
Geoff Swaim: You wouldn’t know it by name recognition, but did you know that Swaim has a higher target share than Kyle Rudolph? The Cowboys haven’t passed nearly as much, so he doesn’t have more targets, but he’s seeing a decent portion of the pie, especially the last two weeks. He’s seen 12 targets that have turned into 8/86/1, so there’s been some production. It shouldn’t be too much of a shocker, either, considering he’s played 227 of a possible 245 snaps. The Texans have allowed a tight end touchdown in 3-of-4 games, though the only one they didn’t was against the Titans where Jonnu Smith saw exactly zero targets. Swaim is definitely on the streaming radar this week and might prove to be more than that considering his volume over the last two weeks.

Ryan Griffin: We’re still seeing Griffin play the majority of snaps for the Texans, though it hasn’t amounted to much. He’s seen 11 targets through four weeks, totaling four catches for 75 yards. That would be okay for one week, let alone four weeks. It’s even worse when you know that Watson has thrown for at least 310 yards in each of the last three games. You can feel free to avoid the Texans tight ends in fantasy football until we see them targeted a bit more with a lot more efficiency.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

Total: 52.5
Line: NO by 6.5

QBs
Alex Smith: They’ve now had an entire two weeks to prepare for the Saints, who have been a mystery to this point. Their defense looked like it was the one from two years ago at the start of the season, but then went into New York and held the Giants to just 255 passing yards and 50 rushing yards. Their run-defense has been elite all along, so Smith will be relied upon to move the ball this week. The good news is that no quarterback has completely “busted” against the Saints, as even Tyrod Taylor and Eli Manning were able to post at least 14.4 points. Looking at the entire scope of things, the Saints have allowed a 75 percent completion rate, 9.6 yards per attempt, and an 11 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio. Knowing they’ve had two weeks to gameplan and pick out their mismatches, Smith should be considered a low-end QB1/high-end QB2 for this game who comes with plenty of upside.

Drew Brees: After starting out the season on a ridiculous pace, Brees was essentially able to take a week off from elite production for a game as Kamara scored three rushing touchdowns. It was a subtle reminder that when the Saints are able to run the ball 20-plus times, Brees’ production may suffer. Knowing that Mark Ingram is back, it adds another layer of risk. The Washington defense has been much better than anticipated this year, as they’ve allowed just 5.48 yards per attempt through their three games which did include matchups with Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. Both of those quarterbacks threw for two touchdowns, but neither of them finished as a top-12 quarterback because of their limited yardage. In today’s game, to hold three teams to 265 yards or less, you’re doing something right. Because of that, it might be wise to scale back expectations for Brees, though not too much because it’s still a small sample size. He’s at home, which is where he’s always dominated, so he’s still a high-end QB1, but he comes with a bit too much risk for cash lineups.

RBs
Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson: If I would’ve told you that Peterson would be the No. 9 PPR running back through four weeks (on a PPG basis), you would’ve called me nuts. Think about it for a quick minute… if you were to redo a draft from the start of the season, where would Peterson go? We’re not about to head into his revenge game! I couldn’t be more sarcastic, as the Saints granted him his wish of being traded last year. Through four games, the Saints have one of the best run defenses in all of football, though. In fact, they’ve still yet to allow a running back top 69 yards on the ground. Over the last three weeks, they’ve clamped-down and held Carlos Hyde to 43 yards on 16 carries, Tevin Coleman to 33 yards on 15 carries, and Saquon Barkley to 44 yards on 10 carries. It’s possible for this game to get away from Washington, though, which would be another bad check-mark on Peterson’s outlook, as he’s not gamescript-proof. The only running back to total more than 12 PPR points against them was Barkley, who did that because he caught six passes for 56 yards, something Peterson is unlikely to do. You aren’t benching him because if anyone scores a rushing touchdown on their team, it’s likely him. Just understand that it’s not a great matchup, making him a low-end RB2. Thompson is very interesting, as the line seems to indicate more passing situations for Washington. In the only game they lost, Thompson totaled 93 yards on 14 touches while Peterson was limited to 50 yards on 14 touches. This is a game where Thompson could rack up plenty of targets considering how good the Saints have been against the run, making him a rock-solid RB2 in PPR formats and a low-end RB2 in standard.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram: After totaling just 21 carries over the first two games, Kamara racked-up 35 carries over the last two games, likely because nobody else on the depth chart was getting anything done. With Ingram back, you should expect Kamara to go back to his 8-12 carries per game with a ton of work in the passing-game. It’s really odd as Washington was expected to be a better run-defense with their healthy linebackers and drafting of multiple defensive lineman while having a bad secondary, but it’s been the opposite. Despite playing against weak competition (David Johnson (sorry), Marlon Mack/Jordan Wilkins, and Jamaal Williams), they have allowed 4.81 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns through three games. They’ve allowed at least nine receptions to running backs in two of their three games, which bodes well for Kamara. It’s really tough to say how much they’ll use Ingram in this game, but knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent, he should play a significant role, making him a low-end RB1, while Kamara is obviously must-play RB1. Yes, as we saw last year, there’s room for both of them to produce RB1 numbers. Here’s your proof:

WRs
Paul Richardson: Knowing that the Saints typically have Marshon Lattimore cover the opposing No. 1 receiver, who would it be here? Richardson has been their best receiver to this point, though most would say that Doctson is their No. 1 guy. In reality, the Saints may just play sides in this game. If they do that, Lattimore would be on Doctson more often. If that’s the case, Richardson can beat Ken Crawley in coverage, who has been terrible to the point they benched him for P.J. Williams, who is also not good. However, with Patrick Robinson needing to go to injured reserve, Crawley is back out there. He’s now allowed 332 yards and four touchdowns on just 24 targets in coverage. Richardson is worth taking a look at as a boom/bust WR4 this week, though it’s always possible the Saints shadow him with Lattimore which would obviously hurt.

Jamison Crowder: After getting off to a slow start, we may have seen Crowder turn the corner health-wise as he caught all four of his targets for 39 yards and a touchdown against the Packers before their bye week. While both Jordan Reed and Chris Thompson are stealing some of his targets, I’d expect Smith to exploit the mismatch that Crowder has against backup cornerback P.J. Williams this week. He’s only playing because Patrick Robinson got hurt, as Williams has now allowed 13-of-14 targets to be completed for 164 yards and three touchdowns. The matchup doesn’t get much better for Crowder, so put him on your WR3 radar who could have a breakout game this week.

Josh Doctson: He’s had some good matchups to exploit this year, but nothing has materialized for Doctson, who is still struggling to gain separation. His 2.3 yards of separation ranks as bottom-24 among wide receivers. Richardson has averaged 2.8 yards, which is obviously better, but particularly because Smith is the most risk-adverse quarterback in the game as he threw into tight coverage a league-low 12 percent of the time last year. It’s very possible that Doctson is at risk of being traded at some point because his skill-set simply does not fit that of Smith. He may see Marshon Lattimore this game, which would be another negative, as Lattimore would surely keep him in close proximity. Doctson is just a touchdown-hopeful WR6 at this point and not one I’d like to trust. Update: Doctson has missed practice all week and is likely to miss this game. 

Michael Thomas: After tussling with Janoris Jenkins last week, Thomas walked away from the game with just four targets and 47 yards. With Ingram back in the offense, we’re likely to see the volume come down a bit, though this matchup is one where Thomas can make some noise. Washington doesn’t use Josh Norman to shadow and Thomas would only be in his coverage roughly 25 percent of the time anyway (Thomas still wins that matchup every day). Washington has had some less-than-stellar wide receivers play against them, as the Cardinals and Colts wide receivers don’t scare you. The Packers duo of Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison tagged them for 9/128/2 before their bye week, so it’s very doable. While the run-game will bring down his ceiling a bit, Thomas is still an elite WR1 who needs to be in all sorts of lineups.

Ted Ginn: We’re starting to see the gap shrink between Ginn and the other Saints receivers, and it won’t help with him making boneheaded special teams plays, either. Sean Payton had a few choice words for him during their win over the Giants, so that could also affect the snaps. He did see a season-low three targets as well, so maybe it’s best to look for an alternate bye week filler. On top of that, Ginn would match-up with Josh Norman most of the time, a matchup that Norman should win. Ginn is just a mediocre WR5.

Cameron Meredith/Tre’Quan Smith: It seems that the Saints are bringing these two into the offense together, as Meredith played 22 snaps last week, while Smith got 26 snaps. It seems that Smith would essentially slide into the Ginn role, while Meredith mans the slot the majority of time, as evidenced by his 9-of-12 routes that were in the slot from Week 4. Washington has put Fabien Moreau in the slot to replace Kendall Fuller and he’s done a respectable job thus far, though the competition has been relatively weak. It was Larry Fitzgerald who posted 7/76/0 in Week 1 which accounted for 49.7 percent of Sam Bradford‘s yardage, but then he had to cover Chester Rogers and Randall Cobb. While Meredith isn’t a world-beater, he’s a big-bodied slot receiver who is matched-up with an inexperienced cornerback. I’d rather take my shot on him than Ginn this week as a bye week replacement WR5 option. Smith is more of a wait-and-see player, though he should be added right now in deeper leagues.

TEs
Jordan Reed: After talking about how Doctson is failing to create separation while averaging just 2.3 yards of separation, it’s no wonder Smith loves Reed who is averaging 3.2 yards of separation. He’s healthy and has been compared skill-wise to Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, and the stats come close to backing that up. Through three weeks with Smith, he’s the No. 8 tight end in points per game. The Saints have been really good against tight ends this year (were last year, too), allowing just 16 catches for 159 yards and no touchdowns through four weeks. Keep in mind that’s with them allowing 11 passing touchdowns in that time. The tight ends they went up against included O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate, David Njoku, Austin Hooper, and Rhett Ellison. It’s not the best matchup for Reed but knowing how much the Washington receivers have struggled to get open, he’ll be targeted more than most do against the Saints. He’s a must-play TE1 while healthy, which he is.

Ben Watson: It’s tough to completely overlook Watson with the way Brees is playing, especially when he’s seen 18 targets, which ranks 15th among tight ends. He’s totaled 13 receptions for 157 yards on those targets, but hasn’t found the end zone just yet. Washington has yet to allow a tight end finish with more than 45 yards, but that’s not what we’re after with Watson. They did allow a touchdown to Eric Ebron in Week 2 and then allowed a touchdown to Jimmy Graham in Week 3, though it was overturned due to a penalty. The same exact safety duo of D.J. Swearinger and Montae Nicholson allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the tight end position, including eight touchdowns. With the threat of play-action back with Ingram, Watson should start to score a few touchdowns in the red zone. He’s a high-end TE2 this week.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Total: 53.0
Line: NE by 10.0

QBs
Andrew Luck: As mentioned last week, Luck is a streamer at this point in time, though he’s a high-end one due to the situation he’ll find himself in most of the time. His defense isn’t going to hold teams below 20 points very often and his run-game is essentially non-existent. Now he’s without both T.Y. Hilton and Jack Doyle on a short week traveling to New England. The Patriots defense has been a bit Jekyll and Hyde through four games, though they’ve played much better in their two home games, holding the combination of Deshaun Watson and Ryan Tannehill to 28-of-54 passing for 276 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. The lone reason to remain optimistic about Luck is due to the fact that he’s thrown the ball at least 40 times in 3-of-4 games this year, which typically nets fantasy points. I’m down on Luck this week simply because of who he’s missing at his disposal (his top two options), making him a middling QB2, though the over/under on this game suggests he’ll be a fine streamer.

Tom Brady: It was good to see Brady get another three-touchdown game under his belt, but he’s now got four interceptions through four games. It’s not great when you know that he threw just 10 of them the last two years combined. You can make the case that it’s because of Julian Edelman being out and I wouldn’t disagree with you. Well, Edelman returns this week. The Colts defense hasn’t been as bad as we thought through four games, as they’ve allowed just five passing touchdowns in that time. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as they’ve allowed 71 percent of passes to be completed and 7.6 yards per attempt. The Colts opponents have also averaged 70.5 plays per game because they can’t run the ball and sustain drives, so there’ll be plenty of opportunity for Brady and company to restore faith in their ability as they try to rebound from their last primetime loss. News also came out Wednesday afternoon that the Colts will be without two starting cornerbacks. Brady is a QB1 and someone who could throw for something like 250 yards and four touchdowns.

RBs
Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and Robert Turbin: What a group of running backs, eh? The Colts offensive line hasn’t delivered quite yet and it’s not shocking considering they had two new guards (takes time for continuity) and are now down both starting tackles. It’s why I’ve been trying to remind everyone to snag Hines for weeks, as he’s the type of running back this offense needs, and now more than ever. With Luck’s safety blankets in Hilton and Doyle out, Hines has a chance to lead the team in targets in this game. The Patriots got both Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers back on defense last week and it showed, though the Dolphins aren’t exactly a tough test. Still, the Colts aren’t known for a potent rushing attack. The gamescript of this game only favors Hines, though it’s very possible there’s a late garbage-time touchdown. With how much Wilkins has struggled, I’m guessing it’ll be Turbin who gets those carries now that he’s back from suspension. Hines should be considered a solid RB3 in PPR formats who is a little less appealing in standard leagues, though still usable. If you had to choose one outside of Hines, it’d have to be Turbin at this point.

Sony Michel and James White: It was good to see Michel find some room on the ground against the Dolphins, though it was the third time this season they’d allowed 100-plus rushing yards to their opponent. Still, he benefited from Josh Gordon being on the field, as well as the increased snaps. He played a season-high 33 snaps last week and carried the ball 25 times in the blowout win, showing he’s clearly the top-back in the system. The Colts young linebackers Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker have played pretty well against the run early on, though their competition hasn’t been great since Joe Mixon in Week 1 when he tallied 149 total yards and a touchdown. Since then, they’ve played Adrian Peterson, Wendell Smallwood/Corey Clement, and Lamar Miller. Leonard is also apparently dealing with an ankle injury that could limit him. When looking for a great running back play, you want a home running back who is a big favorite. It also doesn’t hurt that Michel is one of the better pass-catching backs in the league, though he wasn’t used at all in the passing-game last week. Consider Michel a high-end RB2 who is gamescript-proof. White comes with a bit more risk now that Edelman is coming back, as he’ll eat up some of those targets that White has been seeing over the first four weeks. We saw Chris Thompson rack up 13 receptions against the Colts, which White can do if needed, but Washington was down throughout that game, something that we don’t see happening in New England this week. He should be considered an RB3 moving forward who has much more appeal in PPR leagues.

WRs
Ryan Grant: Suddenly, Grant is going to be relied upon as a No. 1 wide receiver. With Hilton out for this game, he’s going to be asked to do a lot more, and it’s also the reason we saw him get seven targets against the Texans last week. He totaled a season-high 64 yards, though it was a relatively easy matchup. He’s likely not going to see any shadow coverage in this game, but if he did it would be by Stephon Gilmore, who has had a rough start to the year, allowing three touchdowns on his first 16 targets in coverage. He’s better than that, as we have a quite-large sample size, but it just goes to show he’s not unbeatable in coverage. Grant won’t jump off the page with his numbers, but if you’re in bye week trouble, he may be able to at least provide a stable WR4/5 floor in a game we’re expecting Luck to chuck the ball 40-plus times.

Chester Rogers: So much for me hoping to avoid Rogers in my writeups this year, as the injuries to the Colts team have forced him into fantasy relevance. He had a solid game against the Texans last week, seeing a team-high 11 targets, hauling in eight of them for 85 yards. It was Rogers’ best game he’s ever had with Luck. It seems like the Patriots may get Eric Rowe back in the lineup after missing two games with a groin injury, though Jonathan Jones has done a fine job stepping-in to fill his role. Truth be told, it may be better for Rogers if Rowe plays, as he may be returning too early and had struggled over the first two games, allowing 7-of-9 passes to be completed for 90 yards and two touchdowns. Rogers isn’t someone I’d like to hinge my fantasy season on, but similar to Grant, the targets have to go somewhere. He may have little upside, but he should be on the WR5 radar with Hilton out.

Julian Edelman: Welcome back, Mr. Edelman. This is what Tom Brady has been waiting for, as he’s thrown just two interceptions in his last 13 games with Edelman, compared to 12 interceptions in his last 20 games without him. Some will be worried to start Edelman coming off such a long break, but you shouldn’t be one of them. He’ll match-up with Kenny Moore the majority of time, an undrafted free agent from last year who has played admirably in his role, though he slipped a bit last week, as slot receiver Keke Coutee tagged the Colts secondary for 11 catches and 109 yards. Not that Moore was in on coverage every play, but there’s clearly a weakness over the middle of the field (Update: Moore has been ruled out for this week’s game, meaning the matchup will improve a bit more). With Hogan struggling to do anything and Gordon playing just 18 snaps, Edelman should return to eight-plus targets and be on the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 radar.

Chris Hogan: What in the world has happened to Hogan? He’s totaled just 15 targets through four games, catching eight passes for 109 yards and two touchdowns. Call me crazy, but I believe the addition of Edelman helps. Hogan now goes back to his No. 2 or No. 3 option at wide receiver, which is where he’s excelled during his time with the Patriots. Whether it be behind Edelman or Brandin Cooks, that’s when we saw Hogan succeed. While he’s clearly not an every-week start right now, he shouldn’t be left for dead. The question now becomes… who gets kicked off the field in 3WR sets? I’m assuming it’ll be Edelman, Hogan, and Gordon with Phillip Dorsett going to the bench. While he did play well over the first four weeks, Hogan played even better in that role last year. The Colts cornerback trio is nothing to fear, as they allowed three Texans wide receivers to score 14.9 or more PPR points last week. Hogan should be approached with caution, but I’d still trot him out as a WR4 in most leagues.

Josh Gordon: He played 18-of-81 snaps against the Dolphins last week, so it was clearly just an opportunity to get him on the field. He played well, too, catching both of his targets (including one bullet Brady threw into tight coverage) and broke multiple tackles. There’s nothing about his debut that worries me about his playing time going forward, only that he needs Phillip Dorsett to go to the bench with Edelman returning. The way I see it, the Patriots wouldn’t have traded for Gordon if they didn’t plan on booting Dorsett out of the lineup. The Colts will have Nate Hairston in coverage the majority of the time, a cornerback who has now allowed 17-of-23 attempts to be completed for 202 yards and a touchdown in his coverage. He’s also been dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out of this game all together. The concern is that Brady won’t have to throw a whole lot in this game, combined with the fact that Gordon is being eased in makes him a risk/reward WR4/5 this week.

TEs
Eric Ebron: He’s now seen 21 targets in the two-game absence of Jack Doyle and it’s unlikely to end this week. To give you an idea of how many targets that is for a tight end, there’s just nine tight ends who’ve seen that many targets all season. The Patriots have yet to allow a tight end more than 23 yards this season, though their competition has been Ryan Griffin, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Luke Willson, and Mike Gesicki. Not that Ebron has been great, though, as his 21 targets over the last two weeks have netted just 73 yards, though he did score his third touchdown last week. Knowing the targets he’s seeing, it’s impossible to bench him, even with the inefficiency. Devin McCourty has been the safety in-coverage the majority of time, though Ebron will see a mix of him and Patrick Chung. It’s not a terrible matchup by any means, so consider him a solid TE1 who is getting too many targets to even consider benching.

Rob Gronkowski: As of the time I’m writing this, it appears that Gronkowski is no lock to play in Thursday night’s contest. He suffered an ankle injury two weeks ago that he was playing through, but he reaggravated the injury in the win over the Dolphins where he left the game and didn’t return. Granted, the game was in the bag, but knowing the matchup against the Colts, they may decide to rest him. While the young linebackers for the Colts have been solid against the run, they’ve been struggling a bit in coverage. The combination of Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker have combined to allow 41-of-47 passing for 414 yards and one touchdown. A lot of that has gone to running backs, but tight ends also contribute to that number. When it’s not them, it’s Clayton Geathers, who has also struggled in coverage, allowing a 125.0 QB Rating when targeted. You have to play Gronkowski if he’s on the field, though he doesn’t come without risk right now.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.