The Primer: Week 5 Edition (Fantasy Football)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Total: 51.5
Line: KC by 3.5

QBs
Blake Bortles: Many will tell you that Bortles has been so much better without Leonard Fournette in the lineup and it’s true, though I’ll have you know that it’s a very limited sample size (five games). In those games, he’s averaged 287.8 yards and 1.8 touchdowns. The Chiefs may have shut down Case Keenum on Monday night, but that says more about how bad he was than it does the Chiefs defense. It was the first time all season where the Chiefs didn’t allow at least two touchdowns and 20 points to the opposing quarterback. Here’s an odd tidbit, though. Over the last two seasons, there have been just four games where the Jaguars were at least three-point underdogs (as they are this week). In those four games, Bortles has averaged just 155.5 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. The Chiefs have also been a much tougher defense at home the last few years. Players have said that Arrowhead is a tough place to play and it shows in the stats. Opponents averaged 8.1 less points per game there in 2017, and 7.1 less in 2016. While I’m not willing to say Bortles is a bust this week due to the massive change in personnel, but he’s also not safe enough for cash games. Consider him a high-end QB2 this week.

Patrick Mahomes: It was pretty remarkable to watch Mahomes work outside of the pocket on Monday night, as he continually made improvisational plays throughout the game. The cause for concern is that his offensive line may get him killed if they don’t start giving him a bit more time, and he’s likely to be without Sammy Watkins for multiple weeks. This week will be his toughest test all season, as the Jaguars defense is the best in the league. There have been just two quarterbacks over their last 20 games who’ve posted more than 18 fantasy points and none with more than 22 fantasy points. What exactly does that mean? Well, 22 fantasy points would’ve net you the 13th-best performance by a quarterback in Week 4. So, in short, the Jaguars are nearly impossible to finish inside the top-12 against. Their defense hasn’t taken a step back at all, either, as they’ve yet to allow a team to score more than 20 points against them in 2018. On a short week, it’s risky to play Mahomes as anything more than a high-end QB2, though I understand the “want.”

RBs
T.J. Yeldon and Corey Grant: Now that Leonard Fournette is out for the foreseeable future, it’s the Yeldon show again. It’s not a bad week for him to get the nod, either, as the Chiefs have allowed at least 104 yards rushing in 3-of-4 games, but have also allowed 31 receptions for 385 yards and two touchdowns through the air, which is where Yeldon has shined the last few years. The 385 yards they’ve allowed to running backs through the air is the most in the NFL (75 more than the Falcons). This is a crazy stat, but there have been eight running backs who’ve scored at least 11.8 PPR points against them this year… we’ve played four games. Yeldon should be considered a solid RB2 this week who should see anywhere between 15-20 touches, and though I don’t see this game being as high-scoring as oddsmakers, it helps that they see it that way which would lead to more scoring opportunities for Yeldon. As for Grant, he blew his golden opportunity to start a few weeks ago when Yeldon was banged-up, so he’s clearly in a backup role, though he should see enough touches to get onto the RB5 radar in deeper formats.

Kareem Hunt: He was running with a purpose on Monday night, almost as if someone told him you’ll start to lose carries if your issues persist. And for those who say there were no issues, go back to last week’s article where I talked about it. The Chiefs are going to need Hunt to play at that level again in Week 5, as the Jaguars are the stiffest opponent they’ll play. Outside of one run by Saquon Barkley that went for a 68-yard touchdown (that was ridiculous), the Jaguars have allowed just 221 yards on 79 carries (2.80 yards per carry) without a single touchdown. It was nice to see Hunt used in the passing-game a bit more in Week 4, as he saw four targets, which was more than he had in the first three games combined. It’s hard to say that Hunt is anything more than a high-end RB2 in this tough matchup, though being a home-favorite with a high total usually means good things.

WRs
Keelan Cole: After going for 116 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 2, Cole was the talk of the town. He was the Jaguars receiver you wanted to own. He saw nine targets against the Titans but finished with just 40 yards, so naturally fantasy owners were tempted to bench him (eye roll) against the Jets where he totaled just 15 yards on three targets. While the target total is far from ideal, we cannot continue to ride this wave every single week. Now it’s Donte Moncrief and Dede Westbrook who are the receivers you want, right? Give me Cole, as he’s the most talented of the group and one low-target game won’t change that. He’s going to match-up with all the Chiefs cornerbacks, but primarily Steven Nelson, who has been slightly below-average over the first four weeks, allowing a 93.4 QB Rating in his coverage. It’s pretty much in line with his career, as he allowed a 92.2 rating in his coverage last year. No Jaguars wide receiver is a sure thing from week-to-week, but Cole is still the one I’d prefer of them, which makes him a WR4-type option this week.

Dede Westbrook: After seeing 13 targets against the Jets in a phenomenal matchup with Buster Skrine, everyone wants Westbrook. That massive target total put him atop the Jaguars wide receivers in targets (28), but I’d urge you to slow down just a little bit. He’s going to have a much tougher matchup this weekend against Kendall Fuller, who is the Chiefs best cornerback and the one who plays the slot when the opponent goes three-wide. He’s allowed a 68 percent catch-rate in coverage, but just 7.1 yards per target and one touchdown (JuJu Smith-Schuster). Any time a wide receiver gets the volume that Westbrook got in Week 4, we have to take notice, but it doesn’t mean you should expect it as the norm going forward. He’s an upside WR4/5, but not one I think you absolutely need to play this week.

Donte Moncrief: I’ve been hesitant to buy into Moncrief because of how many times we believed he’d break-out with Andrew Luck. Going to Bortles is obviously a downgrade and when you have Cole and Westbrook to compete with, it’s not going to be easy to trust him. His 109-yard, one-touchdown performance against the Jets last week was impressive, but we cannot forget that it was his first game with more than 34 yards with the Jaguars. He’s got what might be the best matchup on the field this week, as his primary matchup will be against Orlando Scandrick, a converted slot cornerback who is now trying to cover the perimeter. He’s allowed just a 39.3 percent catch rate, but he’s also allowed two touchdowns in his coverage. Both of them came back in Week 1 against the Chargers, so it’s possible that Scandrick is flourishing in his new perimeter role, though I’m still skeptical with his 5-foot-10 frame. Moncrief is likely a touchdown-or-bust candidate this week, meaning there’s others who I’d rather play as a WR5.

Tyreek Hill: The good news is that he tied a career-high in targets last week (13), though it was likely due to the Sammy Watkins injury that knocked him out early in the game. Hill has now been held to less than 55 yards in back-to-back weeks, as Kelce has taken on the role of go-to receiver, though that’s kind of how it should be. Hill is going to get the splash plays and blow-up scoreboards from time-to-time, but we’ve now seen what his floor is. The Jaguars aren’t going to shadow Hill, but rather play their usual sides with Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye, though I’d expect Andy Reid to scheme Hill into the slot more than he typically does, especially with Watkins out. Hill has run 36.6 percent of his routes from the slot to this point, so he’ll see either D.J. Hayden or Tyler Patmon in the slot nearly half the time. Hayden has missed the last two games with a toe injury, so to expect him back here against the Chiefs may not be wise unless he’s 100 percent (he’s been ruled out). Patmon has filled in well, but he’s just a journeyman back-up who is there to fill a role. You’re going to plug Hill into lineups as a WR2, though it’s best to limit your crazy expectations for this game. There have been just two wide receivers who’ve reached 100 yards against them the last two years, and both receivers had 15-plus targets (Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown).

Chris Conley: With Sammy Watkins sidelined, Conley will now be a full-time player in the offense. He’s shown chemistry with Mahomes thus far, catching two touchdowns in the first three games on just six targets. He’s the one who primarily plays the slot (ran 58.7 percent of his routes from the slot in Week 4 while replacing Watkins), though I’m guessing Reid will get creative for this game. Conley is the type of player who if you’re in a deep format, he will likely see 4-6 targets in this game, though it’s probably the worst time for him to see starter snaps, as the Jaguars haven’t even allowed a wide receiver to hit 11 PPR points the last two weeks.

TEs
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: I feel like it’s Groundhog Day with Seferian-Jenkins, though he’s missing the touchdowns. At the start of 2017, it seemed like he and Josh McCown were connecting on touchdowns every week, but the yardage was just never there. He’s now played four games with Bortles and seen 19 targets, yet he’s failed to top 24 yards in a single game. If there’s a time for him to come out of his shell, it’s this week against the Chiefs, who have allowed the last three tight ends they’ve played to combine for 14 receptions, 274 yards, and one touchdown. Who were those tight ends? Jesse James, George Kittle, and Jeff Heuerman. With Fournette out in Week 2, we saw Seferian-Jenkins score against the Patriots, so it’s possible we see that happen again. That’s the only red zone target he’s seen from Bortles, but those streaming tight ends are in desperate times. Seferian-Jenkins can be considered as a streamer this week, though he’s obviously very touchdown-dependent.

Travis Kelce: After his slow start where he had one catch for six yards, Kelce has obliterated fantasy leagues with 301 yards and three touchdowns over the last three weeks. There’s reason to doubt that continues in Week 5, though, as the Jaguars have been elite at defending the position. While they haven’t had much competition the last two weeks, they held the combination of Evan Engram and Rob Gronkowski to just four catches for 33 yards in the first two weeks. Even going back to last year, they’d allowed just five touchdowns all season to them and just 40.4 yards per game. Their defense is just so athletic, especially with the linebackers who are able to stay with tight ends through the first and second level. Kelce will never be benched in season-long leagues, but this is a week where you should probably look at other options in DFS.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

Total: 53.5
Line: LAC by 6.0

QBs
Derek Carr: Remember when everyone thought Jon Gruden was going to run the ball like it was 1998? Well, the Raiders currently rank seventh in pass attempts as they’re averaging a robust 42.2 attempts per game. After throwing just two touchdowns in the first three games (with five interceptions), Carr popped off for 437 yards and four touchdowns in Week 4, though he still threw two interceptions. He’ll make throws that have you wonder if he’s going to be elite and then others where you think the Raiders need to draft a quarterback ASAP. In a new system, I’m willing to give him some leeway, though we’re at the point where things should come together. The Chargers will be without Joey Bosa once again, which is good for any quarterback, just ask the four quarterbacks they’ve played thus far. Nobody has thrown the ball more than 37 times against the Chargers, though that’s due to efficiency, as they’ve allowed 8.7 yards per attempt (4th-highest) and a 7.5 percent touchdown percentage (3rd-highest). Even backup C.J. Beathard was able to throw for 298 yards and two touchdowns against them last week. They do get defensive tackle Corey Liuget back from his suspension, though he may be on a snap count in his first game back with the team. Carr is risky, but this game has real shootout potential, making him a high-end QB2 and one I’d consider streaming.

Philip Rivers: Where would the Chargers be without Rivers this year? I mean, 11 touchdowns, just two interceptions, and a 110.8 QB Rating is mighty impressive. The Raiders have been better than most expected them to be on defense, though they’ve still allowed at least two passing touchdowns in 3-of-4 games. Their competition hasn’t been great outside of Jared Goff in Week 1 who threw the ball just 33 times in a blowout, but they’ve still yet to allow a 300-yard passer, though Baker Mayfield and Ryan Tannehill came close the last two weeks. With the way the Chargers defense is playing, they aren’t likely to take pressure off Rivers, so we shouldn’t back away now. The last time he played the Raiders (though it was under a different coaching staff), he popped off for 387 yards and three touchdowns. He’s a low-end QB1 who could suffer a bit because this seems like a game where Melvin Gordon can go off.

RBs
Marshawn Lynch: Despite running for 130 yards, which was more than double his previous season-high, Lynch failed to score for the first time in Week 4 against the Browns. He may have if the refs didn’t blow a play dead when a defender was trying to tackle Lynch, where he spun out of it and had a lot of green grass in front of him. But I’m not mad about that… not at all (sarcasm font). The Chargers haven’t been a dominant run defense through four weeks, but they get defensive tackle Corey Liuget back this week and that should help. They’ve only allowed two rushing touchdowns without him, which is quite the accomplishment considering they played against Kareem Hunt and Todd Gurley. Lynch has averaged 19 carries per game the last three weeks, so there’s no way you’re considering benching him, though you may want to avoid in cash-games, as there’s a possibility the Chargers jump out in front and he’s game-scripted out. I’d still trot him out there as a solid RB2 in season-long leagues.

Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler: We’re now through four weeks and it’s clear that there’s more of a timeshare in the Chargers backfield than people realize. Gordon has 78 touches while Ekeler has 41 of them, which is a 1.90 to 1 ratio. Last year, that number was 342 for Gordon, 74 for Ekeler, a 4.62 to 1 ratio. Gordon has obviously done fine considering he’s the No. 3 running back in fantasy, but the three receiving touchdowns are a bit inflated. The Raiders have been one of the best in the NFL at limiting the receiving numbers for running backs, as they’ve allowed just 13 catches for 124 yards to them. The issue for them has been on the ground, where they’ve now allowed four rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks, including three to the Browns last week. The 557 yards rushing they’ve allowed ranks as the third-highest in the NFL and we know Rivers won’t contribute to that. Gordon should be able to get it done on the ground this week, making him in RB1. Ekeler is a bit riskier considering where he excels, so even though he’s been seeing 7-14 touches per week, he’s just an RB4 who’s yet to score a rushing touchdown, though he’s a bit more appealing in PPR formats.

WRs
Amari Cooper: Welcome to what is the seesaw of Cooper’s production. After seeing just three targets in Week 1, he turned in 10/116/0 in Week 2. Then after seeing just five targets in Week 3, he turned in 8/128/1 in Week 4. Coincidentally, he saw 10-plus targets in his two productive games, so maybe… just maybe, Carr should consider targeting him on a consistent basis. If the targets are there, production most likely follows. The Chargers secondary hasn’t lived up to last year’s reputation, as they’ve already allowed two 30-plus point wide receivers (Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods), as well as a 24.5-point tight end (George Kittle). They have Cooper moving all over the formation, as he’s played one-third of his snaps out of the slot, so it’s unlikely he sees one cornerback much more than the other. He was a bit Jekyll and Hyde against them last year, finishing with 5/28/0 in the first meeting, but 3/115/1 in the second meeting. Surely enough, he had six targets in each game. Cooper is going to be maddening to own all season, but his ceiling is as high as almost anyone’s on a weekly basis. Keep trotting him out as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.

Jordy Nelson: It was good to see Nelson used in the slot once again in Week 4, as he ran 49 percent of his routes from there, while Seth Roberts ran just 20 routes all game. On Nelson’s nine targets out of the slot, he’s caught seven of them for 124 yards and a touchdown, so maybe it’s a thing going forward. He’ll see a lot of Desmond King this week, which is a good thing, because King has still yet to allow an incomplete pass while covering the slot. 14-of-14 targets have been completed for 116 yards, though no touchdowns just yet. Knowing Nelson has seen eight targets in each of the last two games while playing more in the slot, he may just be a serviceable WR4 for the remainder of the season, though his ceiling is a bit limited.

Martavis Bryant: The good news is that he’s seen escalating targets each week, topping out at seven last week. The bad news is that he’s not going to get them for very long when he drops wide-open touchdowns. He should have had a 50-plus yard touchdown in Week 4, but he just flat-out dropped it. He still ended with 51 yards, but it was a disappointing day. If the Chargers use anyone to shadow, it’ll be Casey Hayward on Cooper, so that would leave Bryant against Trevor Williams, who has been less-than-average this season after flashing a lot of talent in 2017. He’s allowed 11-of-15 targets to be completed for 164 yards and two touchdowns through four weeks, but those numbers show he’s not one to allow very big plays, which is what Bryant needs to stay alive. With the lack of pass-rush, it makes Bryant a bit more attractive, but not enough to consider him more than a WR6 option.

Keenan Allen: This feels a bit like 2017 where Allen had an extremely slow start to the season, though most fantasy players don’t recall that. Let me remind you that he was the WR30 after 10 weeks. He’s currently sitting as the WR31 through four weeks. The emergence of Mike Williams has surely made life harder on him, as his target share isn’t what it was down the stretch last year. Still, he’s seeing seven-plus targets from a red-hot Rivers right now, so the fantasy points will come. The Raiders have been using Leon Hall to cover the slot up until this point, but it’s likely they go Daryl Worley, who is returning from a four-game suspension. He’s a third-round pick from the 2016 draft who the Panthers traded to the Eagles, who ultimately released him after being charged with a DUI, possession of a firearm, and disorderly conduct, which is where his suspension came from. It’s possible that he’s eased back into action, but one thing is for sure… he’s not as talented as Allen. Provided all is well on the injury front, I’d trust Allen as a low-end WR1 in this game.

Mike Williams: After totaling 189 yards and three touchdowns in the first three games, expectations were sky-high for Williams in Week 4 where he had his worst game of the season, totaling just three targets and one catch for 15 yards. He’s still No. 3 in snaps behind Tyrell Williams, though the Chargers do run a lot of 3WR sets. Knowing that Travis Benjamin is now out for the foreseeable future, we should consistently see Williams on the field. The Raiders perimeter cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Gareon Conley have played well this year, allowing just 22-of-48 passes to be completed for 352 yards and one touchdown. Both have great size, too, so it’s not as easy of a matchup that most will assume. Williams remains a high-end WR4 who comes with massive touchdown-upside, but this should be a Keenan Allen week.

Tyrell Williams: Over his last 16 games played, there’s been just three occasions where Williams has seen more than five targets. It’s odd because he’s still the No. 2 wide receiver when it comes to snaps, but he’s almost a decoy at this point. He’s still yet to top 48 yards this season despite Rivers’ hot start, though when you’re consistently seeing 3-5 targets, it’s tough to produce. As mentioned in the other Williams’ writeup, the Raiders perimeter cornerbacks have been solid, allowing just 7.3 yards per target and a 45.8 percent catch-rate. Unless Williams catches a long touchdown, he’s going to bust, which can be said about a lot of wide receivers, making him just a low-end WR5 in a solid offense.

TEs
Jared Cook: He’s out to try and make fantasy analysts look stupid this year, as it was the cool thing to love Cook’s athleticism back in the day, though everyone had moved on after nine years of no production. Seriously, Cook has never had a season with more than 95 standard fantasy points. He now has 49 of them through four games. The Chargers got smacked in the mouth by George Kittle last week, who posted 125 yards and a touchdown while playing with C.J. Beathard. It was odd, too, as the Chargers hadn’t allowed a tight end to total more than 35 yards in the first three games, including Travis Kelce, who totaled just one catch for six yards. Jahleel Addae was the one who allowed the 82-yard reception to Kittle for a touchdown last week, so most of the production did come on one play. Considering Cook has seen 35 targets, he’s one of the big parts of this offense, so he remains on the low-end TE1 radar, though this is a tougher matchup than last week’s.

Antonio Gates: We’re still seeing Virgil Green on the field more than Gates and continually running more routes, but Gates is the one who gets the targets. He’s now seen five targets in each of the last two games, which is a lot for tight ends, though he’s caught just five passes for 72 yards. Yes, one was for a touchdown and that’s what Gates does, but he’s not moving so well out there anymore. The Raiders safety duo of Marcus Gilchrist and Reggie Nelson is nothing to fear, as Nelson allowed a touchdown to Darren Fells last week, though it was the first tight end touchdown they’d allowed on the season, but to be fair, the competition had been weak. With his increased target share, Gates is worth a look, but I’m guessing you can find a streamer with more upside.

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 44.5
Line: PHI by 3.0

QBs
Kirk Cousins: I remember saying that the reason I didn’t love Cousins this year was due to his elite defense which would lead to a lack of pass attempts. Through four weeks, the Vikings have allowed the 11th-most points per game and Cousins has thrown more pass attempts than any other quarterback, so it’s no shock to see him as the QB6 through four games. If anything, he should be higher. We’ve seen continued inconsistency from him, similar to the way he was in Washington, though this is a new offense with new pass-catchers. If there’s one thing we’ve learned this season, it’s that the Eagles can be thrown on. We did see them hold Matt Ryan touchdown-less in the opener, but that was likely more play-calling than anything. Since then, we’ve seen them allow seven passing touchdowns to the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andrew Luck, and Marcus Mariota. But looking at everything a bit closer, they’ve been much better in their two home games. Here’s a look at the splits:

They were against Matt Ryan and Andrew Luck at home, so it’s not like it was terrible competition. The Eagles also had the biggest disparity in points per game allowed at home and on the road last year, as they allowed a league-low 12.4 points per game at home, but 24.6 points on the road. Because of this, it seems like it might be wise to look for another DFS option, though the Vikings wide receivers do match-up very well with the Eagles cornerbacks. Knowing how much they’re struggling to run the ball, Cousins remains on the low-end QB1 radar, but he just might not be as safe as you’d initially thought. Update: Pass-rusher Derek Barnett has been ruled out and Haloti Ngata is questionable, so Cousins’ matchup has brightened a tad. 

Carson Wentz: He’s looked solid in his first two weeks back, completing just over 66 percent of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt and that’s despite Nelson Agholor having issues with drops (three of them the last two weeks). Bottom line, you don’t have to worry about Wentz’s health holding him back. Getting Alshon Jeffery back most definitely helped, too. The Vikings haven’t been the same defense without Everson Griffen on the field, as they’ve allowed 12.0 yards per attempt to the combination of Jared Goff and Josh Allen the last two weeks. They’ll have 10 days to prepare for this game, but they’ve also traveled from Minnesota to Los Angeles, back to Minnesota, and now on to Philadelphia. The NFL schedule makers have done them no favors. I’m not convinced the Vikings defense is this bad, but rather ran into a tough matchup with the Rams at the wrong time and just didn’t match-up well with all their playmakers. Wentz should be considered a middling QB2 in this game, though the matchup looks better than it did a few weeks ago.

RBs
Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray: After seeing him limited against the Rams in Week 4, Cook did a radio interview on Monday where he said he was on a pitch count and that his hamstring isn’t fully healed yet. After watching Leonard Fournette reaggravate his hamstring injury last week, it’s wise to be cautious. On top of that, the Eagles have still yet to allow a running back more than 36 yards on the ground. This is similar to last year where the Eagles held opposing running backs to just 59.3 rushing yards per game. If Cook is on a snap-count, that’ll likely limit his third-down usage and that’ll kill his production this week, as that’s where he would need to have success. There’s still been just one running back who’s topped 11.5 PPR points against them, and it was Dion Lewis who caught nine passes for 67 yards. Cook is just a weak RB3 and one you shouldn’t feel pressured to use this week. Murray isn’t usable, either, considering his lack of involvement in the passing-game, as he’s got just nine targets through four weeks.

Jay Ajayi, Darren Sproles, and Corey Clement: With both Sproles and Clement out last week, we saw Ajayi play his second-highest snap total (40) he’s had while with the Eagles. He didn’t have an overly-productive game, but it wasn’t bad against the Titans. In every game this year, the Vikings defense has allowed in between 83-90 yards to the opposing team (not just one) of running backs. They’ve also yet to allow a touchdown on the ground, which includes Todd Gurley last week, though he did catch a touchdown. This extends to last year, too, as the Vikings allowed just eight running back touchdowns all season (7 rushing, 1 receiving). With Sproles and Clement due back, it’s not a game to be excited about Ajayi. He’ll need to get into the end zone to not completely bust because it’s unlikely he totals more than 60 total yards without a big play, which makes him just an RB3 this week. The Vikings have allowed at least 61 receiving yards in 3-of-4 games to opposing running backs, so there’s hope for Sproles and Clement, but not enough to recommend them considering they’re both coming back from injuries. Update: Sproles has been ruled out while Clement is listed as questionable. 

WRs
Adam Thielen: Currently the leader in targets (56) and the No. 2 wide receiver in fantasy football, we don’t even need him to have a great matchup to produce, but he gets one this week. He’ll match-up against second-year cornerback Sidney Jones, who has been decent though four games, but he also hasn’t been tested the way the Vikings and Thielen will. He’s seen just 20 targets through four weeks in coverage and has had to cover Adam Humphries, Chester Rogers, and Tajae Sharpe the last three weeks. There’s no way you’re even considering benching Thielen, as he’s a WR1 until proven otherwise, especially in PPR formats. The concern here is that the Eagles allowed just 1.3 passing touchdowns per game at home last year and just 0.5 passing touchdowns per game at home this year.

Stefon Diggs: Prior to writing this game up, I really felt like the Vikings wide receivers could do some work against the Eagles cornerbacks, but after looking at it closer, they’ve played much better at home. Due to the lack of run-game for the Vikings, we may see enough attempts to overcome that, though the numbers over the last two years on the road against the Eagles don’t look very kind to opponents. Diggs will see a mixture of Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby who have both struggled, and particularly Mills who has allowed over 10 yards per target in his coverage. Diggs isn’t seeing the volume that Thielen is, so he’s the one who’s a bit riskier in this matchup despite the solid cornerback matchup, making him a middling WR2 who likely needs to score to live up to that ranking.

Alshon Jeffery: After it appeared he was out due to a sickness, Jeffery played extremely well in Week 4 hauling in 8-of-9 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. While watching that game, he was making some tough catches in tight coverage, so his shoulder injury appears behind him. He’s got a brutal matchup in coverage this week, as he’s going to be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. He hasn’t been dominant this year, but we have a big enough sample size to know that he’s a stud. Over the entire 2016 and 2017 seasons, he allowed just five touchdowns and 6.24 yards per attempt in his coverage. He’s also a big, physical guy in coverage, so it’ll be a battle between the two. I’d consider Jeffery a high-end WR3 this week who still gets targeted even in tight coverage, though I’d probably avoid him in DFS.

Nelson Agholor: It’s been a brutal season for Agholor, but the last two weeks have been the worst, as he’s dropped three of his 17 targets. Even worse, his 17 targets have turned into just 46 scoreless yards. Of the 147 wide receivers who have caught a pass, Agholor ranks 128th in yards per target. Fortunately for him, the Eagles don’t have many other options to go to at wide receiver. He’s got another solid matchup this week, as the Vikings have rookie Mike Hughes covering the slot. He’s allowed a 70 percent catch-rate in his coverage for 8.9 yards per target to this point, though we’ve also seen some ways to expose the Vikings secondary with a slot receiver who can get matched up with a linebacker (if you missed Cooper Kupp‘s performance last week, it was great). I’m sure Doug Pederson has noticed that as well. Agholor isn’t as safe as we once thought considering his struggles, but he should be put out there as a high-end WR4 who will bounce-back at some point.

TEs
Kyle Rudolph: Despite having just 188 yards through four games, Rudolph has the ninth-most yardage among tight ends this year, which just goes to show how bad the position has been. The concern here is that he ranks ninth in targets despite Cousins leading the league in attempts. His 11.6 percent target share actually ranks just 18th among tight ends, which isn’t great. It’s unlikely Cousins continues to throw the ball 47.3 per game, and it’s also unlikely they have enough plays to do so against the Eagles, who have allowed just 60 plays per game to their opponents while at home. Outside of O.J. Howard‘s 75-yard touchdown back in Week 2, the Eagles have allowed just 11 catches for 85 yards, so it’s not a great matchup. Rudolph is still a low-end TE1 but not a great one.

Zach Ertz: Despite leading tight ends in targets by a wide margin, as he’s got 47 while the next closest is Travis Kelce with 38, Ertz has still yet to score a touchdown. It’s reminiscent of his earlier days when he failed to score more than four touchdowns in any of his first four seasons despite seeing 89-plus targets in three of them. For reference, the average number of targets per touchdown to tight ends as a whole last year was 18.0, meaning if Ertz was simply average, he’d have at least two touchdowns by now. This isn’t solely on him, as the quarterback play was weak throughout the first two weeks, so I’m expecting positive regression moving forward with Wentz. The Vikings have had light competition the last two weeks (Tyler Higbee and Charles Clay), but prior to that, they allowed George Kittle 5/90/0 and Jimmy Graham 6/95/0. Harrison Smith is the one they leave in charge of tight ends most of the time, but Ertz also lines up at wide receiver quite often, which will create mismatches. Consider Ertz a high-end TE1 who’s bound to score very soon.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Total: 50.0
Line: LAR by 7.0

QBs
Jared Goff: What a performance by Goff against the Vikings last Thursday night, coming against a defense that hadn’t allowed two touchdowns since back in Week 12 of last year. Despite throwing just 134 attempts through four weeks (ranks 18th), Goff sits as the No. 3 quarterback. His efficiency is out of this world and it’s not as if teams can prevent it with the way they can run the ball. The Seahawks have a real dilemma on their hands, as Earl Thomas going down for the year was the final straw that was holding everything together. Even with Thomas out there basically deserving of defensive player of the year honors, they had allowed seven touchdown passes to the combination of Case Keenum, Mitch Trubisky, Dak Prescott, and Josh Rosen. We got news that they won’t get linebacker K.J. Wright back for another couple of weeks, so it’s unrealistic to think that their defense could contain the Rams offense, even in Seattle. Consider Goff a high-floor QB1 who will simply fill the gaps that Todd Gurley doesn’t, though the secondary is there for the taking if the Rams want to attack it.

Russell Wilson: It’s really depressing watching Wilson go on this way, as he’s currently the No. 20 fantasy quarterback through four weeks. While it’s possible that the play-calling under Brian Schottenheimer has been terrible, it could also do with Wilson, who traditionally starts slow. Over his career, he’s averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game through Weeks 1-4, while averaging 24.2 points per game in Weeks 5-17. In 2017, he was the QB9 after five weeks. In 2016, he was the QB23 after eight weeks. So maybe we just don’t draft Wilson and then trade for him later in the season? The fact that his defense is falling apart is likely to lead to more pass attempts, but we need him to run more than he has. The Rams will bring pressure up the middle, though them missing one of their best players in Aqib Talib does help. Under the same coordinator (though there’s a lot of different parts), the Rams defense held Wilson to just 198 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting and then 142 yards and one touchdown in the second meeting. Knowing the Rams have allowed five passing scores over the last two weeks helps, but Wilson is still outside of QB1 territory until he shows signs of life. He’s just a risk/reward QB2 against the Rams. His price has dropped so much in DFS that I’d toss him in a few tournament lineups.

RBs
Todd Gurley: The Seahawks haven’t had an easy road through the start of the season, facing Phillip Lindsay/Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard, Ezekiel Elliott, and then David Johnson. It doesn’t get any easier against Gurley, who will be coming off 10 days rest. After having one of the worst games of his career against the Seahawks in Week 5 last year, he bounced back big after they lost a few pieces, totaling 180 total yards and four touchdowns in Week 15, which most fantasy owners will remember. They’ve done a respectable job this year given the competition, allowing just 4.41 yards per carry and one touchdown, but they’ve also allowed two touchdowns through the air to running backs, and the loss of Earl Thomas will affect the entire defense. Coming off a game in which they allowed David Johnson to score 20.2 PPR points, Gurley should be licking his chops. The only thing that could prevent a complete boom performance is the fact that the Seahawks secondary is so ripe for Goff and the receivers.

Chris Carson, Rashaad Penny, and Mike Davis: As if this backfield wasn’t hard enough to predict with Carson and Penny, they went ahead and added Davis to the timeshare going forward, eh? While Carson was out last week, it’s a question if Penny will be inactive if he’s actually fallen behind Davis on the depth chart, though that’s hard to see happening. Davis had been active for Weeks 2 and 3, but he played just 17 snaps in the two games, so it’s all too odd. Carson is expected back, so this should be his job against the Rams, though it’s no prize as they’ve allowed just one running back to eclipse 48 rushing yards through four games. In fact, no running back has been able to finish with more than 16.9 PPR points against them and that’s despite matchups against Marshawn Lynch, David Johnson, Melvin Gordon, and Dalvin Cook. The defensive front of Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers, and Ndamukong Suh should have no issues swallowing whichever running back is thrown at them, meaning Carson is no more than a risky RB4, while Penny and Davis are emergency options only.

WRs
Brandin Cooks: As mentioned in the intro this week, the Rams offense can absolutely support three relevant wide receivers due to how little the tight end position is targeted. Oddly enough, Cooks leads the team in receptions (26) and yards (452) but is last of the wide receivers in touchdowns (1). The Seahawks play sides, but now must rely on last year’s fourth-round pick Tedric Thompson to cover the deep part of the field with Earl Thomas down. Knowing how well McVay disguises things, don’t expect the kid with 66 career snaps to understand everything that’s going on. Cooks will line up primarily across from Tre Flowers, a fifth-round rookie who’s a converted safety. Through the three games he’s played, he’s allowed 189 yards and a touchdown on 22 targets in coverage. Cooks is the experienced vet who should teach the young man lessons with no Thomas over the top. Consider him a WR2 who should be relatively safe.

Robert Woods: With the addition of Cooks to the offense, I figured it’d be Woods who suffered the most, but it’s just meant less talented cornerbacks for him. He actually leads the team in targets (34) and air yards (417), so there’s little reason to expect his production to decline. He does have the toughest matchup of the three this week, as he’ll see Shaquill Griffin in coverage, the cornerback who has two interceptions and has allowed just 6.1 yards per target in his coverage. Woods will move around, so it’s not exclusively him, but that’s who he’ll likely see about 60 percent of the time. We play odds, so knowing that’s his matchup while Cooks will primarily see Flowers, Cooks gets the edge this week. Woods should still be played as a WR3, but expectations shouldn’t be that he’ll be their best receiver this week.

Cooper Kupp: It’s so fun watching the Rams play football, as there’s so many ways they can beat you, including getting Kupp matched-up with linebackers. While Cooks and Woods get the glory in targets, receptions, air yards, and other things, Kupp leads the team with four touchdowns. Only Michael Thomas and JuJu Smith-Schuster have seen more red zone targets (10) than Kupp, and both of those players are considered WR1’s in fantasy right now. He’ll draw Justin Coleman in the slot, who has played pretty well this year, allowing just 5/42/0 on 10 targets, which also means he hasn’t been tested very much. With all the movement taking place with players in their secondary, it’s possible that McVay schemes in a way to confuse their nickel cornerback and free safety, who may get pulled down into coverage when the Rams run a package that requires them to show their cards. Don’t fight the Rams offensive skill players if you don’t have to, because they’ll win the majority of time. Kupp should be played every week as a high-end WR3.

Doug Baldwin: After missing multiple weeks with a sprained MCL, Baldwin returned in a plus-matchup against the Cardinals, though he was held in check with just five catches for 41 yards. The great news is that he played 50-of-66 snaps, so health isn’t an issue moving forward. He’s going to see Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot, who is definitely an above-average slot cornerback, but the Vikings were able to move their slot target (Adam Thielen) around last week to create opportunity where he ended up with 8/135/1, though Robey-Coleman wasn’t in coverage on the majority of it. Baldwin was in the slot on 80.8 percent of his routes last week, so they’ll need to get creative to move him towards Sam Shields, who showed a lot of rust last week, allowing 9/162/2 on 13 targets. That’s like an all-time level bad for a cornerback in one game. Do we trust the Seahawks to go after him and move Baldwin around? If they do, I’d say Baldwin is a must-start WR2. If not, Baldwin would be just a mediocre WR3 who can still beat Robey-Coleman, but it’s tough to say he will knowing how much Wilson has struggled this year. You now know the risk when putting Baldwin in your lineup.

Tyler Lockett: With Baldwin back in the lineup last week, it bumped Lockett back out to the perimeter, limiting his fantasy production, though it wasn’t terrible. The Rams will likely have Marcus Peters cover him this week, which is a big problem for Lockett, as Peters is widely considered one of the better cornerbacks in the league. While he’s beatable at times, Lockett isn’t a difference-maker that you want to give chances to in tight coverage. Peters had been playing RCB, but moved to LCB with Aqib Talib on injured reserve, and that’s where Lockett will play roughly 60-70 percent of the time. While it’s possible the Rams don’t shadow, the Seahawks may choose to play Lockett a bit more on the other side of the field to get matchups with Sam Shields. Not knowing the gameplan, it’s tough to say Lockett is anything more than a mediocre WR4 this week.

Brandon Marshall: With where he typically lines up, he’d match-up with Sam Shields in coverage, a big plus for his potential this week. Shields has played just over 180 snaps since 2015 and it’s showed in his play, allowing 14-of-19 passes to be completed in his coverage for 224 yards and three touchdowns. Marshall doesn’t have the ability to separate anymore, but he’s still tough to bring down after the catch and might be Wilson’s favorite red zone target this week given the mismatch. After all, Marshall does have three red zone targets, which is more than Lockett and Baldwin combined. Prior to tangling it up with Patrick Peterson, Marshall had six targets in each game. One big warning sign, however, is that he played fewer snaps than seventh-round rookie David Moore last week. In fact, they both played more than Jaron Brown. Something odd is going on with the Seahawks. Marshall’s an emergency WR5 for bye weeks who just happens to have the best matchup if he gets his snaps back. If not, Moore might pop-up on the fantasy radar.

TEs
Tyler Higbee: There’s been 10 targets for the Rams tight ends all season. Not just Higbee… all of them. They’ve combined for just 71 yards. Not just Higbee… all of them. The Seahawks have Bradley McDougald coming down to cover the tight end and he’s done a phenomenal job, allowing just 48 yards on 13 targets in coverage. There’s no reason to think McVay changes anything up in this game.

Nick Vannett: After Will Dissly went down for the year last week, it’s going to be the Vannett show for the next two weeks until Ed Dickson is able to come onto the active roster. If there’s a positive in this, it’s that him and Dissly combined for 28 targets the first four games, which would rank fifth at the position. The last tight end on the roster right now is Darrell Daniels, a third-sting tight end who’s caught three career passes. Vannett should be a lock for at least five targets in this game and the Rams have struggled with the position. They’ve allowed 25 receptions (3rd-most) and 328 yards (4th-most) through four games, but they have yet to allow a tight end touchdown. With the targets, receptions, and yardage coming, it’s tough not to like Vannett as a high-end TE2 who can be streamed this week.