Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Total: 39.0
Line: TEN by 3.5
QBs
Marcus Mariota: Whew, it was good to see Mariota put together a respectable performance against the Eagles last week. We had heard reports that his arm/elbow was doing better, but sometimes that can be floated out there as coachspeak. His 69.8 percent completion rate against the Eagles was his highest since Week 6 of last year, so there’s room for optimism. The Bills defense looked to be a stomping ground at the start of the year as they allowed six passing touchdowns to Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers, but have now held Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rodgers to less than 300 yards and just one touchdown apiece the last two weeks while on the road. This game will be in Buffalo, where they allowed three fewer points per game last year. Granted, the defense isn’t the exact same, but it’s the same scheme with a lot of familiar faces. This should be a game where the Titans try to get their ground-game right, so Mariota could take a backseat to their production. He’s still on the middling QB2 radar because he’s running the ball again (97 yards and a touchdown over the last two games), but his upside is a bit limited in this game. It seems like the Bills may be without both Micah Hyde and Rafael Bush in their secondary, which could help open up things, though it should still be a run-heavy gameplan.
Josh Allen: The good news… he’s got more fantasy points than Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Rosen through four weeks. The bad news… that won’t last long with the way he’s playing. He’s running the ball a lot, as he’s now got 90 rushing yards and two touchdowns in his three starts. His accuracy bottomed out at just 48.5 percent last week against the Packers, so it’s unlikely we see him start lighting it up against a Titans defense that’s allowed just 46 total points over the last three weeks, which included matchups against Carson Wentz, Blake Bortles, and Deshaun Watson. He’s barely on the QB2 radar this week, but he is due to his legs.
RBs
Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis: The Titans run-game hasn’t been what you’d call great. In fact, you might say that it’s been one of the worst in the NFL. Henry and Lewis have combined for just 306 yards on 97 carries (3.15 yards per carry) with one touchdown. To be fair, though, they have just played three of the best run defenses in football (Texans, Jaguars, Eagles). If there was a week for them to get their act together, this would be it. Similar to the Bears passing-game against the Bucs last week where they used it as a confidence-builder, the Titans need to do that with their run-game in this matchup. The Bills have now allowed 22 running back touchdowns in their last 13 games, including seven through four games in 2018. The Titans also have their offensive line completely healthy heading into this game, so look for the ground-and-pound to come out in full force this week. While it may seem dangerous, Henry should be in lineups as a low-end RB2 this week, while Lewis is a high-end RB3, as the Bills have allowed a very-high 29 receptions through four games. If you’re not going to play Henry here, drop him or trade him, because you never will.
LeSean McCoy: We knew there were plenty of concerns with McCoy entering the season, but we didn’t think he’d have just 29 touches through four weeks of football. It’s not just the injury that’s limited him either, as he has yet to total more than 13 touches in a game. The Titans haven’t been the immovable force they’ve been in years past, but they have still yet to allow a touchdown to a running back (receiving or rushing). McCoy has played better with Josh Allen under center averaging 4.5 yards per carry, though it’s a limited sample size. He’s also seen 10 targets the last two games they’ve played together, which is where they’ll want to attack in order to give Allen some confidence throws. McCoy did play 60 percent of the snaps against the Packers last week, so we should accept him as healthy moving forward. The Bills may be showcasing him for a trade here shortly, so don’t lose all hope with McCoy, who is just an RB3 this week, though one with a higher floor than most timeshare running backs, just not as high of ceiling. It would help if linebacker Wesley Woodyard missed the game, as he left last week’s game with a shoulder injury. Update: Woodyard has been ruled out, so McCoy sees a slight bump, though it’s hard to say he’s a top-24 option.
WRs
Corey Davis: There were some haters on my Twitter timeline last week for continuing to believe Davis is a WR3 for a remainder of the season, but when you’ve had some seriously tough matchups to start the year, where should expectations have been? While I was concerned about Mariota’s arm, it’s clear that he’s got enough to get it to Davis, who is a budding superstar. He’s seen a massive 42 percent of the Titans air yards through four weeks, which is the third-highest mark in the league. He’s got another tough matchup on the slate in Week 5, as he’ll see upcoming superstar Tre’Davious White, who has shadowed both Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs the last two weeks, holding them to a combined 12 catches for 98 scoreless yards on 24 targets. As was the case with Davis against the Jaguars two weeks ago, you want to approach the matchup with caution, though it’s hard to pass-up that target share. Knowing he’s the go-to receiver when Mariota is in trouble, Davis is still in the WR3 conversation, but stay away from him in DFS this week.
Taywan Taylor: In case you didn’t hear, Rishard Matthews is no longer part of the Titans and Taylor is now a full-time player in the offense. He’s seen increased targets from one, to four, to five, and then nine targets in their Week 4 win over the Eagles. He’s done well with the targets, too, catching 14-of-18 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown. He’s probably best utilized out of the slot, but he ran just 18 percent of his routes from there in Week 4, while Davis was there 30 percent of the time, and Tajae Sharpe was there 40 percent of the time. Due to Davis attracting White in coverage, that’ll leave Taylor with Ryan Lewis, a second-year cornerback who’s played just 121 snaps in his career, or Phillip Gaines, who has now missed two weeks in a row. Gaines practiced last week and wasn’t listed on the injury report, so it’s possible that he’s fallen out of favor already. This isn’t a game where the Titans should throw much, but Taylor has the best matchup on the field, making him a decent desperation WR5 option.
Kelvin Benjamin: He took a big shot last week that had him in the locker room being examined for a concussion, but he did return to the game. Remember when he said that Cam Newton was inaccurate? I wonder how he feels now that he’s caught just 7-of-21 passes on the season from Nathan Peterman and Allen. His 4.4 yards per target is embarrassingly low and it’s unlikely he provides any fantasy value unless he scores a touchdown. The Titans cornerback duo of Adoree Jackson and Malcolm Butler is supposed to be a good one, though Butler hasn’t exactly shined with his new team while allowing four touchdowns in four games. Benjamin actually lines up against Jackson roughly 50-55 percent of the time, while he’ll see Butler 35-40 percent of the time. He’s always a touchdown away from fantasy relevance, but do you really want to do this to yourself? I mean, I don’t even want to write about any Bills wide receiver, let alone play them.
Zay Jones: He saw a season-high seven targets last week, though they netted just 38 yards. Outside of his 57-yard catch in Week 2, Jones has totaled just 87 scoreless yards on 16 targets. There are plenty of other wide receivers out there who present more one-off upside than him, so don’t play him.
TEs
Jonnu Smith: I always try to cover at least one tight end from every team, so that’s why Smith is here, though his one catch for nine yards since Delanie Walker went down in Week 1 suggests you shouldn’t consider him. The Titans have started to give Luke Stocker more snaps recently, though neither of them should be considered as streamers even though the Bills have allowed a tight end touchdown in back-to-back games.
Charles Clay: It was good to see Clay targeted a bit more in Week 4, as he saw a season-high six targets. They amounted to a mediocre four catches for 40 yards, but believe it or not, that was a top-20 tight end performance. That’s where we’re at with tight ends nowadays. The Titans held the combination of Mike Gesicki, Jordan Akins, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins to just six catches for 50 yards in the first three games but allowed Zach Ertz a massive 10 receptions for 112 yards last week. Ertz ran 59 percent of his routes out of the slot, while Clay actually ran 55 percent of his from there last week, which ranked top-10 among tight ends. With Kenny Vaccaro going down with an injury, the Titans will be forced to go with Kendrick Lewis a veteran who’s played just 65 snaps since 2015. Clay should be considered a mid-tier TE2 who is trending in the right direction.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
Total: 57.0
Line: PIT by 3.0
QBs
Matt Ryan: Since the season-opener where he was buried by many analysts for saying he had a “dead arm,” he’s piled up 1,065 yards and 12 total touchdowns the last three games. Knowing his defense is going to allow tons of points, you should expect more of the same. His efficiency has been through the roof, which is why you don’t see obscene pass attempt numbers, but they’ll be there should his efficiency take a dip. The Steelers defense has looked pretty bad through four weeks, allowing each quarterback they’ve played at least 22 fantasy points, which includes Tyrod Taylor. The 12 touchdowns they’ve allowed through four weeks ranks as the second-most to only the Buccaneers. It’s not just the touchdowns, either, as they’ve allowed 9.2 yards per attempt over the last three weeks. They’ll also be without linebacker Vince Williams and safety Morgan Burnett, making this a beautiful spot for Ryan and the Falcons offense. The cornerback “talent” on their defense has no prayer to hang with the trio that the Falcons present, making Ryan a high-end QB1 and one who should be safe for cash games.
Ben Roethlisberger: After being embarrassed at home on primetime, you need to get over it and put Roethlisberger back into lineups. It was just the second time in the last 16 home games where he failed to throw at least two touchdowns. Roethlisberger hasn’t played well, despite being top-10 in fantasy points through four games, but the Falcons are the recipe for success. Since losing Keanu Neal and Deion Jones (also lost Ricardo Allen), the Falcons defense has allowed at least 335 passing yards and three touchdowns to each of Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Andy Dalton. If the Steelers could ask for any opponent to get their passing attack back on track, it’d be the Falcons right now. On top of that, they’ll be without defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, who is one of the best interior linemen in the game. If Roethlisberger throws for less than 300 yards and three touchdowns in this game, I’d be shocked. That should tell you he’s a must-play elite-level QB1 whose run-game is struggling.
RBs
Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman: With Freeman practicing on a limited basis last week for the first time since his injury back in Week 1, he’s likely going to return for this game. It was likely an MCL sprain, which is a nice way of saying he had a slight tear in his knee. The Falcons are fortunate enough to have Coleman on the roster, so they’ll likely ease him back for this game. The Steelers run-defense hasn’t been a weak point, though, as they’ve yet to allow a running back more than 75 yards, and that’s despite both Carlos Hyde and Kareem Hunt seeing 18-plus carries. In fact, they haven’t allowed a team of running backs to score more than 19.1 PPR points against them this year, though they’ll have a lot of other concerns in this game with the Falcons pass-catchers. Knowing it’ll be a timeshare, it’s hard to say Coleman is more than a low-end RB2, while Freeman is a risky RB3 who could reaggravate his injury at any time. The matchup isn’t good enough to consider either of them for cash games, and considering the Steelers haven’t allowed much on the ground, it might be best to limit tournament exposure as well.
James Conner: So, wait, Le’Veon Bell is actually really good and he’s not just a replaceable piece in the offense? Weird. Outside of the Browns game in Week 1, Conner has totaled just 97 rushing yards on 32 carries (3.03 yards per carry), though he’s added another 107 yards through the air. With Roethlisberger struggling, the offense hasn’t scored as much as most thought, though this shouldn’t be one of those weeks. The Falcons have allowed 104 points to their last three opponents, which has included these performances to running backs: Christian McCaffrey 27.9 PPR points, Alvin Kamara 34.0 PPR points, and Giovani Bernard 25.6 PPR points. But there’s a catch… they still haven’t allowed anyone to rush for 70 yards against them and a lot of the points have come in the passing-game, where they’ve allowed 42 receptions, 310 yards, and a touchdown to running backs. It most definitely helps that defensive tackle Grady Jarrett will miss this game, as he’s one of the best run-stuffers in the league. Even if he can’t get it going on the ground with Jarrett out, Conner has seen at least five targets in every game, so he should be safe to plug in as an RB1 this week who I’d bank on scoring at least once.
WRs
Julio Jones: There was a poll on Michael Fabiano’s Twitter account on Sunday that asked whether you’d rather have Jones or Ridley, where 58 percent of voters said they’d rather have Ridley. I hate to break it to them, but even with the two touchdowns in Week 4, Jones outscored Ridley in PPR formats 26.3 to 21.4 points. It’s crazy that Jones now has 502 yards without a touchdown, but here we are. He’s the modern improved version of Andre Johnson for those who have played for the last decade. There isn’t a single receiver outside of Jones with more than 331 yards who’s yet to score a touchdown. Odell Beckham is the only other one over 185 yards without a touchdown. Do you see where I’m going here? There’s an explosion coming soon. The Steelers don’t shadow anyone, so Jones will see a mixture of Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton/Mike Hilton, but mostly Artie Burns who was reportedly almost benched two weeks ago. Burns has now seen 15 targets in coverage but allowed 220 yards and three touchdowns on them. The inexperienced safety duo of Terrell Edmunds and Sean Davis won’t help much, as Jones is an elite-level WR1 this week. He’s still the Falcons WR1.
Calvin Ridley: It’s about time that the fantasy community realized just how talented Ridley is, but I hate to break it to you guys, Ridley isn’t likely going to score four touchdowns the remainder of the season. That would put him into double-digits, which no Falcons pass-catcher has done since 2012. Ridley is benefiting from Jones’ double teams, but everyone in the league has been forced to take notice. He’s obviously a must-play right now, but regression is coming for the receiver who has just 264 yards (31st among wide receivers) through four games. Ridley will see a lot of Joe Haden in coverage this week, who is definitely past his prime, though as he showed last Sunday night, he’s still got a few tricks up his sleeve. He’s allowed just a 40 percent catch-rate in his coverage, though Ridley will put him to the test as the best receiver he’s faced to this point. Plug in Ridley as a high-end WR3, though I’m concerned the expectations are getting out of hand.
Mohamed Sanu: While everyone discusses Jones and Ridley, don’t sleep on Sanu, who has now seen 16 targets over the last two games. He’s produced, too, catching 10 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. The Steelers were without up-and-coming stud slot cornerback Mike Hilton last week and were forced to go with Cameron Sutton, who has been horrible in coverage this year, allowing 210 yards and three touchdowns on just 17 targets in coverage. It’s not too much different than last year where he allowed 80 yards and a touchdown on just 11 targets. Hilton didn’t practice last week and was listed as doubtful before being ruled inactive with an elbow injury, though some are expecting him to return this week. If Hilton plays, it would surely downgrade Sanu’s matchup to mediocre WR5 territory, but if Hilton misses the game, Sanu would be a usable WR4 this week.
Antonio Brown: He hasn’t produced on his targets, but Brown ranks second to only Adam Thielen in targets through four games. In fact, there’s nobody with more than 39 targets who has less yardage than Brown. Knowing he’s seen 53 of them, you’d think there’s a big problem with him, though the issue lies with his quarterback, who is constantly throwing the ball behind/above/ahead of him. We have enough of a sample size to trust they’ll get back on track and it’s likely this week. The Falcons have tried to solidify their issues on defense by moving Desmond Trufant into the slot, though that didn’t work out too well, as he allowed seven catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in his coverage against the Bengals. They may switch back after realizing the disaster, but it’s not as if Trufant or Robert Alford stands a chance against Brown. There’ve already been 10 wide receivers who scored double-digit PPR points against the Falcons through four games, including nine in their last three games. He’s a WR1 and one you should feel confident playing in any format.
JuJu Smith-Schuster: He’s just four targets behind Brown after four weeks and he’s outpaced him in yardage 416 to 272, though Brown has three touchdowns to Smith-Schuster’s one. If the Falcons follow through with what they did last week, it would be Desmond Trufant who’d match-up with Smith-Schuster, and while some would consider that a bad thing, he was brutal covering Tyler Boyd last week, who finished with 11 catches for 100 yards. In what looks to be a get-right game for the Steelers, Smith-Schuster should be able to post borderline WR1 numbers this week. Even if the Falcons go back to Brian Poole in the slot, it’s not a bad matchup for Smith-Schuster, as Poole was moved to safety so they could play rookie Isaiah Oliver on the perimeter (also had injuries that made it somewhat necessary). Poole had allowed a 129.4 QB Rating in his coverage prior to being moved to safety.
James Washington: If you’re looking for a sleeper to pair with Roethlisberger in DFS this week, Washington will match-up with fellow rookie Isaiah Oliver in coverage, which would mean good things. Oliver got his first start last week and proceeded to allow 26 yards and a touchdown on three targets in coverage. All it takes is one, too, as Washington’s 17.2-yard average depth of target ranks fourth in the NFL behind only John Brown, Tyreek Hill, and DeSean Jackson. He’s one of my favorite contrarian plays in this game and one who should be in a few tournament lineups.
TEs
Austin Hooper: It’s really easy for teams to forget about Hooper, who is a solid athlete, but has shown little else while in a football uniform. The Falcons wide receivers clear out so much that Hooper is going to be left sitting in the middle of a zone, just begging for Ryan to throw to him. Knowing he won’t see more than five targets is worrisome, but the Steelers have really struggled against tight ends over the last three weeks allowing 26 receptions for 314 yards and three touchdowns. If Morgan Burnett comes back, we’d want to downgrade the matchup, but if he’s out, Hooper should be considered a high-end TE2 who could finish as a top-five option. Update: Burnett is doubtful to play.
Vance McDonald: For those who worry about it being a fluke, have no worry, McDonald is the new Steelers pass-catching tight end. He’s run 58 routes over the last two weeks while Jesse James has run just 28 routes. Knowing that Roethlisberger is just the 27th rated deep-ball passer in the league through four weeks, why not give him some confidence-builders to McDonald who is averaging an NFL-high 13.0 yards after the catch. Granted, it’s not the larges of sample sizes, but he’s every bit the athlete you want running in the open field, just ask Chris Conte. The Falcons defense has holes all over, so the Steelers will be able to pick which area to attack. They may choose to go McDonald’s way quite a bit, as the Falcons have allowed 10-of-12 targets to be completed for 115 yards and a touchdown to tight ends the last two weeks. McDonald should be considered a low-end TE1 who has more upside than most streamers.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Total: 47.0
Line: BAL by 2.5
QBs
Joe Flacco: It was odd watching Flacco on Sunday night football as he continually looked to be just zoning out on the bench. He did say something after the game about how it was odd how off he felt on the sidelines, as he kept thinking about the plays they left on the field. Am I the only one who thought he just looked depressed? Probably. Despite his blazing-hot start to the season, Flacco ranks just 14th in quarterback scoring, which says a lot about the state of the NFL as a passing league, as he’s averaged 313 yards and two touchdowns per game. The Browns are coming off a game in which they allowed Derek Carr to throw for 437 yards and four touchdowns, though they intercepted him twice as well. It was a weird game for the Browns defense, as they’d held Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees to just 578 yards and three touchdowns combined through the first two weeks. Call it a glitch in the matrix, as their defense won’t allow nearly 30 fantasy points to many quarterbacks. Flacco hasn’t been under duress much this year, though that may change with Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi coming after him this week. The Browns did lose starting cornerback Terrence Mitchell likely for the season, so they’ll move forward with T.J. Carrie and Briean Boddy-Calhoun alongside Denzel Ward, which is odd because they’re both slot cornerbacks. On the road, Flacco is just a low-end QB2 against a Browns defense who simply had an off week.
Baker Mayfield: It was a mixed-bag for Mayfield, as he definitely made some mistakes, but so did his pass-catchers as they dropped six passes of his 41 attempts. They’ve now dropped nine of his 64 attempts through 1.5 games. There are just four quarterbacks who’ve had more drops on the entire season. Can the Browns get Josh Gordon back by any chance? The Ravens will be getting Jimmy Smith back from his four-game suspension this week, and he’ll join a very talented cornerback room with Brandon Carr and Marlon Humphrey, though we don’t know which will cover the slot. Outside of the one hiccup game against Andy Dalton on Thursday night, the Ravens secondary has allowed just one passing touchdown. Knowing that the Browns don’t have the prototypical alpha wide receiver, the Ravens aren’t likely to do much shadowing in this game. Mayfield is returning to Cleveland this week, but the matchup isn’t one where you should expect anything more than low-end QB2 numbers.
RBs
Alex Collins and Javorius Allen: We have no more clarity on the Ravens backfield after Week 4, and in fact, Kenneth Dixon will return before long to make it even more complicated. Collins fumbled near the goal-line, which nearly changed the entire outlook of the game, and it’s an issue he’s had since joining the Ravens. It’s now six fumbles in 19 games with them and while it’s frustrating, John Harbaugh came to his defense after the game saying that it’s due to his running style, though they do need him to protect the ball a bit more. We saw Collins finish the game with 36 snaps while Allen played 33, so it’s still an even split between the two, though Collins has continually outproduced Allen whose stats are padded by four touchdowns. The Browns have now allowed at least 107 rushing yards to opposing running backs in 3-of-4 games, including multiple rushing touchdowns in two of those games. Teams have averaged 27.3 carries per game against the Browns and that likely comes down to the fact that the Browns opponents have averaged over 73 plays per game, which is ridiculous. Knowing Collins has seen a two to one ratio in carries, we should be able to lock him in for 15 carries this week, which presents RB2 value. Allen isn’t getting enough touches to consider him anything more than an RB4 who relies on touchdowns as a third-down back.
Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson: There will be a lot of Nick Chubb supporters out there this week after he broke a couple runs and finished with 105 yards and two touchdowns, but don’t overlook the fact that he had just three snaps. Seriously, those were the only three plays he was in the game. Hyde has done nothing to lose this job, and it’s the reason Chubb is only playing a few snaps per game. The Ravens defense has returned to form this year, allowing just 3.64 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown on the year. They also got C.J. Mosely back last week, so there’s no worry with him going forward. This game is likely going to put an end to Hyde’s six straight games with a touchdown dating back to last year, which makes him just a high-end RB3 who should still get 15 touches. Johnson should be used more in this game, though we’ve seen him touch the ball just 21 times through four games. We should note that Mayfield did get him a season-high four receptions for 45 yards last week, leaving a bit of hope for him. Johnson should be looked at as a risky RB4 who I’m starting to feel better about in PPR formats.
WRs
Michael Crabtree: He’s going to fall out of favor with Flacco really quick, as he’s now dropped five of his 34 targets. His drop rate is 21.7 percent, which is 10 percent more than the next closest wide receiver. Even when he catches the ball, he’s not doing much with it, his 184 yards and one touchdown suggest. In fact, he’s now the No. 3 receiver on the team in fantasy production behind both Brown and Snead. The Browns are likely to have Denzel Ward cover Crabtree, though there’s no guarantee of that considering Brown’s emergence this year. They may choose to play sides, which would still have Crabtree against Ward roughly 60 percent of the time. Until we see him correct his drops and develop some sort of chemistry with Flacco, he needs to be moved into WR4 territory. The matchup against the Steelers was a gift, but one that he clearly didn’t want. I’m okay benching him until we see something new.
John Brown: Name the only wide receivers that have more air yards than Brown through four weeks. I’ll save you the research… Julio Jones, that’s it. He’s seen four fewer targets than Crabtree, but his are far more valuable. The matchup this week will likely be against Briean Boddy-Calhoun or T.J. Carrie, who both run near a 4.5-second 40-yard dash. Brown has had no issue beating teams deep, though the Browns do have one of the better safety duos in Damarious Randall and Jabrill Peppers. As of now, Brown has yet to finish a game with less than 8.6 standard points or 13.5 PPR points, which means he’s must-start WR2/3 material. Even if he has a down week at some point, all wide receivers do. It’s clear that the smoke that we were hearing out of camp was in fact correct about the Flacco-to-Brown connection.
Willie Snead: We’ve started to talk about Snead recently, and with the struggles of Crabtree, he’s likely to continue seeing his target share increase. He’s now seen at least five targets in every game and his 26 targets rank 36th among wide receivers. His matchup in the slot will likely be against Briean Boddy-Calhoun, who has played poorly through four weeks, allowing 9-of-11 targets to be completed for 174 yards. For a slot-only cornerback, that’s pretty high. The Browns actually benched him but were forced to go back to him after Terrance Mitchell injured himself and is likely out for the year. Snead isn’t someone who’s suddenly going to see 10-plus targets per game and offer tremendous upside, but he’s a Mohamed Sanu-type player who is unowned in a lot of leagues, and he makes for a decent bye week filler who comes with a decent floor.
Jarvis Landry: It’s now two drops in two weeks for Landry, who should’ve seen his value go up with Mayfield under center. He did score his first touchdown last week, but the performance could have been better. The Ravens defense will get Jimmy Smith back this week, which is no good for opposing offenses, though you don’t know if they put him back into a full-time role immediately. It’s an interesting predicament for the Ravens, as their slot corner Tavon Young has been the one who’s been picked on through four games, allowing 10/131/2 on 13 targets in coverage. The combination of Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr has been legit, though playing the slot is an entirely different position than the perimeter. Because of that, Landry is likely the only one you want to consider of the Browns receivers, as he still plays 60-plus percent of his snaps in the slot. Play him as a low-end WR2, but one who might do better than expected depending on how the Ravens handle their cornerback situation.
Antonio Callaway: It was the second straight week where Callaway looked terrible when it came down to actually catching the football. He’s now seen 19 targets the last two weeks, but he’s caught just seven balls for 74 scoreless yards, while dropping three of them. If that persists, he’ll lose targets to Rashard Higgins, who has dropped just four passes on his 81 career targets. It doesn’t really matter all that much this week, as he’s going to see Brandon Carr and Marlon Humphrey/Jimmy Smith in coverage, which is bad news. That duo has been lights out this year, allowing just 253 yards on 50 targets in coverage this year. Callaway will have better days ahead if he can start bringing in the football, though you shouldn’t expect that to magically happen in a tough matchup.
TEs
Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews: It’s rumored that Hurst will be active for this game, though the Ravens tight end room was already pretty crowded. Here’s the routes run for the trio last week: Nick Boyle 17, Andrews 16, Maxx Williams 11. Now we add Hurst, who’s the best of the bunch, though he’s coming off foot surgery? That’s a no-go for me, as he’s still a rookie in his first regular season game in what looks to be a four-way timeshare. Foot surgery and pass-catchers don’t go well together, especially when it was just over a month ago. The Browns are coming off a game in which they allowed Jared Cook to go for 110 yards and two touchdowns. They have been the defense to target over the last two years, so it appears they still might be. During the 2017 season, they allowed TE1 performances in 11-of-16 games and it’s the same defensive coordinator, so it’s very possible. Still, taking a shot on any of these guys is a risk right now, though Andrews would be the one I’d probably lean if forced to choose.
David Njoku: I’ve been saying that a Njoku breakout is imminent, though five catches for 52 yards isn’t quite it, even if it was the 14th-best tight end numbers from last week. He’s still yet to score, though that’ll come in time, as he’s too big and athletic not to. The fact that he saw seven targets from Mayfield in his first start is huge, and it’s likely that Callaway’s drops lead to more targets for Njoku. The Ravens haven’t played very stiff competition this year, as Vance McDonald was the best one they’ve seen and he totaled five catches for 62 yards last week. The Ravens have Tony Jefferson do most of the coverage with tight ends, and on the season, he’s allowed 11 catches for 136 yards on 17 targets, though he’s still yet to allow a touchdown in his coverage. Njoku should still be considered a low-end TE1, as the Ravens cornerbacks will remove Callaway and Higgins almost completely. He makes for an interesting tournament option this week.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 50.0
Line: CIN by 6.0
QBs
Ryan Tannehill: It’s never a good thing to be benched for Brock Osweiler. Let’s just leave Tannehill’s Week 4 “performance” at that. Now he goes on the road to play against the Bengals and the over/under on the game is 50.0? Seriously, what gives? Tannehill had a really short leash considering he’s played well and led them to a 3-0 start, but it was a bad game they likely just wanted to come away from healthy. The Bengals have been without Vontaze Burfict for the first four weeks, but he’s back, which is bad news for the Dolphins. Both the opponent’s yards per attempt on the ground and through the air decreased with him on the field last year, which included 575 snaps on and 551 snaps off, so it was a big sample size. The Bengals secondary has missed the presence of Adam Jones, though, as they’ve now allowed at least two passing touchdowns in each game. It’s not all great, though, as they’ve faced a ton of pass attempts. Their touchdown percentage allowed is 5.3 percent, which ranks 14th in the league, so it’s not that bad. Tannehill has yet to throw more than 28 pass attempts in one game. They’ve also allowed just 7.4 yards per attempt, which may seem high, but it ranks 16th in the league. Safe to say, this isn’t an elite matchup for Tannehill, though the total is very odd. I’d consider him just a low-end QB2 in this matchup.
Andy Dalton: Is it possible that Dalton has turned a new leaf in his career during the eighth season of it? Unlikely, but he’s now on pace for 44 touchdowns while his previous career-high is 33. In fact, he’s thrown more than 27 just once. The addition of John Ross to the offense has paid dividends to both Dalton and the run-game, as his speed demands respect. Still, regression is coming. The Dolphins have been a surprise team through four weeks, but they’ve slowly been slipping, though missing Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones might be part of the issue. A positive for Dalton is that they’ve now allowed an average of 317.7 passing yards per game to the combination of Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, and Tom Brady the last three weeks. But maybe the craziest part is that they have intercepted at least two passes in each of their four games and lead the NFL with nine on the season. Dalton is coming off throwing five interceptions the last two weeks and looks to be without Ross for this contest. While the over/under says Dalton should score more than I think, but he’s got the looks of a middling QB2 to me this week. Update: The Dolphins will be without pass-rusher Cameron Wake and cornerback Bobby McCain for this game, two of their better starters on defense.
RBs
Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore: It’s gotten to the point where I’m throwing my hands in the air. In close games, they give Gore half the work. In games they’re losing throughout, they give Gore the majority of the work when Drake’s skill-set is much better suited. As my co-host on the Sunday night podcast Dan Harris said, it’s not as if it’s a new coaching staff who hasn’t seen what Drake can do in the NFL. He currently ranks 38th in carries behind guys like LeGarrette Blount and Frank Gore. This is an issue, but one neither you or I can fix. The Bengals have been gashed up the middle of the field the last two weeks, as they’ve had multiple injuries on their defensive line. They’ll be getting linebacker Vontaze Burfict back this week, which will most definitely help, though the loss of defensive tackle Ryan Glasgow still hurts up the middle. The only game where the Bengals did allow more than 86 rushing yards to their opponent was Christian McCaffrey when they were down to two defensive tackles for the majority of that game and their linebackers didn’t show up. I’m not placing any bets on this backfield, even though it’s clear who the most talented one is. Drake is just an RB4 until Adam Gase gives us a reason to move him up, while Gore is just a low-upside RB4/5 option.
Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard: It’s likely that Mixon is back for this week, so that’s how we’ll approach this game. In case you missed it, Bernard actually left the Falcons game in the fourth quarter with some sort of injury and was unavailable on the team’s final drive. The Dolphins have now allowed at least 100 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in 3-of-4 games, including a breakout performance to Sony Michel last week where he went for 112 yards and a score. In fact, the Dolphins have allowed at least one running back to rack up 17.2 or more PPR points in every game. Part of the reason is that they’ve allowed 30 receptions for 267 yards and two touchdowns through the air to running backs, which is an area where Mixon and Bernard excel. It also helps that center Billy Price may return this week (Update: he’s now considered week-to-week), one of the key additions to the offensive line who’s missed the last two weeks. Prior to going down with a knee injury, Mixon had a stranglehold on the backfield, so it’s hard to see his workload go anywhere, though if John Ross is held out, they may need to use both of them in the passing-game. Consider Mixon a low-end RB1 while Bernard is in the RB4/flex conversation, provided he’s okay. If Mixon isn’t medically cleared for this game, Mark Walton becomes a rock-solid RB2. Update: Bernard has been ruled out as someone who’ll miss 2-4 weeks. Mixon has been cleared and will play the majority of the snaps against the Dolphins, making him a must-play RB1.
WRs
Kenny Stills: He’s currently the WR36, but ask his owners if it feels like that. While there have been two good performances, there’s also been two games that have netted 2/17/0 and 3/40/0. The entire offense is extremely unpredictable and you’re taking on risk any time you put them into your lineup. He’s still yet to see more than six targets in a game and that’s likely because Tannehill hasn’t thrown the ball more than 28 times. We don’t know if Parker will return this week from his quad injury, though it hasn’t affected Stills in an overly positive way. It would help a bit this week because the Bengals would likely have William Jackson cover him, leaving Stills with Dre Kirkpatrick, who is on the downturn of his career. Truth be told, even Jackson has struggled, as the perimeter duo has allowed five touchdowns in their coverage and have now allowed at least one 15-point PPR receiver in every game. They’ve now allowed nine wide receivers to crack the double-digit point mark, leaving Stills as an intriguing WR4 option this week.
DeVante Parker: While I was on Parker before the season, it’s likely to the point where he’s a forgotten man on the Dolphins team. He’s now missed three of the first four games with finger and quad issues, and the Dolphins have had success using both Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant in those games. Parker did look good in his lone game of the year, though he saw just three targets being eased back in. The Bengals would likely have William Jackson cover him, which is both a good and bad thing. He’s easily the most talented cornerback on their team, but he’s struggled through 2018 allowing a 113.0 QB Rating when targeted. While playing in 2017, that number was all the way down at 36.1, so there’s something that’s got to give. I wouldn’t trust Parker even if he does play this week, as there’s just a little too much risk.
A.J. Green: It was good to see Green out there last week after suffering a hip injury in Week 3, and it didn’t appear to hamper him at all when he posted 78 yards and a touchdown against the Falcons. This week he’s going to have his hands full, as up-and-coming shutdown cornerback Xavien Howard awaits. He’s now covered Corey Davis (6/62/0), Robby Anderson (3/27/0), and Amari Cooper (2/17/0), though he did allow two touchdowns in his coverage last week against the Patriots when there was no shadow situation. Green has now scored five touchdowns through four games and he’s a top-five talent, so this is Howard’s toughest challenge yet. Oddly enough, Green has been a much better fantasy receiver on the road throughout the entirety of his career, so being at home does him no favors. Green still needs to be played, but he’s likely more of a high-end WR2 than WR1 this week who you should limit exposure to in DFS.
Tyler Boyd: He’s the leading receiver for the Bengals, as he’s now got 349 yards through four games, which ranks 11th in the NFL just behind Tyreek Hill. His 36 targets rank as the 17th most in the NFL, so Boyd should be here to stay, especially when we consider the injury to John Ross, who has been seeing a decent number of targets. Boyd will match-up with a mixture of Minkah Fitzpatrick and Bobby McCain, depending on whether or not Reshad Jones plays, as it would move Fitzpatrick back to nickel cornerback instead of the safety role he’s played the last two weeks. Fitzpatrick has been phenomenal in the slot this year, allowing just 40 yards on 15 targets in his coverage, which has amounted to just a 25.7 QB Rating, which is the lowest in the NFL among those who cover the slot (closest is 50.3). Boyd has a tough matchup here, but targets matter, making him a low-end WR3 in this tough matchup, though he’d get an upgrade if Jones is out again.
TEs
Mike Gesicki: Even with A.J. Derby out last week, Gesicki could only see two targets that amounted to nine yards in a plus-matchup. The equation is pretty simple, actually. When you average a league-low 25.0 pass attempts per game, there’s not many to go around because even if a pass-catcher sees a 20 percent target share (which is high), they finish with five targets. It’s odd with the Bengals, as they’ve now allowed three tight end touchdowns, though they’ve all come to backups. Eric Ebron, Mark Andrews, and Logan Paulsen have all scored against them, though they haven’t allowed a tight end to top 31 yards the last three games. Until we see the Dolphins drastically change their play-calling, it’s tough to trust anyone in season-long. One thing to note is that the Bengals have allowed at least two touchdowns in each game, so maybe Gesicki is thrown to in the red zone? Nah, that’s expecting competent coaching.
Tyler Kroft: There will be a lot of people who automatically assume Kroft is the tight end to own in Cincinnati, but you should know that C.J. Uzomah has played a much bigger role to this point. He’s run 65 pass routes through four weeks, while Kroft has totaled just 21 of them. Kroft is the better receiver, but it’s not a cut-and-dry situation. The best part is that you don’t have to choose this week, as the Dolphins have been lights out against tight ends to this point, including the last two weeks, holding Jared Cook and Rob Gronkowski to a combined nine catches for 75 scoreless yards. Wait it out and we’ll revisit the routes run in their next game.