Want to win your NFL pick’em contest or confidence pool? Here are six games from the Week 1 slate that you need to have on your radar.
By considering not only the win odds but also the expected pick popularity of every team, you can give yourself a much better chance to win weekly and/or season prizes in your football pool this year.
——
Last season, 81% of TeamRankings subscribers reported winning a prize in a football pick’em. If you want an edge in NFL pools or betting, check out their NFL pick’em pool picks, NFL survivor pool picks, and NFL betting picks.
FREE TRIAL OFFER
For a limited time, FantasyPros readers can get a free All-Access subscription to TeamRankings for the first week of the 2018 NFL season. The free trial includes all NFL game predictions and picks, end of season projections, and customized picks for your NFL survivor pools and pick’em contests.
——
Why Week 1 Pick Popularity Matters
The only way to win an NFL pick’em contest is to outscore your opponents. And the only way to outscore your opponents is to get picks right that they get wrong.
To maximize your edge in a football pool, you, therefore, need to identify opportunities to “fade the public” in a way that increases your odds to win a prize. If your primary goal is to win weekly prizes in a season-long pool, or if you’re playing in a pool that only offers weekly prizes, then making some highly unpopular picks can greatly increase your expected profits.
Pools that only offer end-of-season prizes, on the other hand, typically call for much more conservative picking in the early weeks. Still, picking the less popular team in toss-up games will give you an edge over your opponents. Furthermore, if you find yourself trailing the leaders toward the end of the season, picking small underdogs that are underrated by the public often gives you the best chance to catch up.
In our Football Pick’em Picks product, we collect data from popular national pick’em contests to estimate pick popularity for every team in both game-winner and spread-based pools. Then, we compare a team’s pick popularity to its win odds (or spread cover odds) to determine if it’s being underrated or overrated by the public. Finally, we use algorithms to determine the specific set of Week 1 picks that offer the best risk vs. reward profile for your pool.
6 Picks Of Interest For NFL Week 1 Pools
This week’s analysis of win odds and pick popularity yields six picks worth noting.
As you’ll see from the writeups below, we are not saying that you should make all six of these of these picks in your football pool. Why not? Because the best picks for your specific pool will depend on a number of different strategy factors (e.g the size of your pool; whether it uses confidence points or not; whether it offers season prizes, or weekly prizes, or both). We built our Football Pick’em Picks product to do all that pick optimization work for you.
Still, whether you use our product or not, the six games below all have characteristics you should be aware of when you make your Week 1 picks in game winner based NFL pools.
Note: Win odds and projected pick popularity data below is current as of Monday night, and may change before kickoff time. Our Football Pick’em Picks product is updated multiple times daily with the latest information.
Bigger Favorite At A Reasonable Price
Baltimore (vs. Buffalo)
In Week 1, six teams are favored to win by six points or more by the betting markets, with each team having win odds in the 70-80% range. Bigger favorites like these teams are almost always overrated by the public, for two reasons. First, many people assume these games are “locks” for the favorites when in reality a 4-in-5 or 7-in-10 chance to win is far from a lock. Second, a lot of people can’t imagine that picking a touchdown favorite to lose would ever be a sound strategy in pools when in reality it sometimes is.
Out of this week’s larger favorites, Baltimore looks like the most fairly valued of the bunch (73% win odds as a 7-point Vegas favorite, picked by 89% of the public). So if you want to make a big bold upset call this week, do not make it the Bills. You can take less risk for more potential reward with other upset picks.
Value Favorite
Denver (vs. Seattle)
Denver is a team with a tarnished image after a 5-11 finish and horrible quarterback play last season. However, both our projections and the betting markets expect the Broncos to improve by a couple wins this year. Seattle is just the opposite case, a team with a celebrated QB and strong public brand that’s expected to get worse in 2018. Such context often presents a nice upset pick opportunity, but the icing on the cake is that Denver is actually favored to win this game, by a field goal. Given the Broncos’ 60% win odds and pick popularity of only 53%, it would not be wise to pick the Seahawks if their popularity in your pool lines up with the national average.
Unpopular Toss-Up Pick
Washington (at Arizona)
This one is as clear-cut as they come. The game has a line of (Pick), meaning that neither team is favored by the betting markets, yet over 70% of the public is picking Arizona to win. We’re fairly high on Arizona’s prospects for improvement this year, but there is effectively no chance that the Vegas line is underestimating the Cardinals’ win odds in this game by 20%. In a coin flip game, picking the less popular team will almost always give you an incremental edge, and the popularity difference here is stark. If these numbers hold, Washington is the obvious play.
Small Underdogs With Value
Miami (vs. Tennessee)
Wow, does the public hate Miami this week. The Dolphins are the slightest of underdogs at home, yet nearly 80% of pick’em entries have Tennessee winning the game. To put that in perspective, the Titans, a 1-point Vegas favorite, are about as popular a pick this week as the Rams, a 4.5-point favorite. With close to a 50/50 shot to win, Miami deserves consideration in larger pools with season prizes. However, if your primary goal is to win a weekly prize, the Dolphins are pretty close to a no-brainer pick.
Atlanta (at Philadelphia)
It’s not as good an opportunity as Miami — the Falcons are a riskier pick (45% win odds, vs. 48% for Miami) and more popular too (25% picked vs. 20% for Miami). But Atlanta still qualifies as a solid fade-the-public play. The public tends to hold last year’s Super Bowl champion in very high regard, and that often creates a value opportunity in Week 1. (You may remember what happened to the 2017 Super Bowl champion Patriots in their home opener against the Chiefs last year.) 2018 is no exception, especially with the Eagles battling a host of injury issues. As a 2.5 point underdog, Atlanta still may be an unnecessary risk as a Week 1 pick in smaller season prize pools, but the Falcons look like a great option to increase your edge in 1-week contests.
Value Gamble
Cleveland (vs. Pittsburgh)
You would not want to make this pick in a typical season prize pool, but the most underrated team in pick’em contests this week, by a wide margin, is the Browns. It should surprise no one that the overwhelming majority of the public thinks Pittsburgh will win this game, but Pittsburgh’s pick popularity — 90% — is extremely high given that the Steelers are only 4-point Vegas favorites (about 65% win odds). That means by picking the Browns, you’ve got nearly a 35% chance to gain ground on almost all of your opponents, which is a big reward. In a larger 1-week pool, or in pool formats where picking all favorites but making one differentiating upset pick makes sense, the Browns offer great value.
Special Offer For FantasyPros Readers: Get up to 60% off a TeamRankings premium subscription before 2018 NFL season starts. Discounts are available on NFL Pick’em Picks, NFL Survivor Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.
All Articles In This Series
Part 1: How To Get An Edge In NFL Pick’ems And Survivors
Part 2: How The Pros Dominate Football Pick’em Contests
Part 3: Value-Driven Picking In NFL Survivor Pools
Part 4: NFL Expert Picks & Model Predictions
