We did it, folks! Week 1 is in the books. Now is when things get fun.
If you’re playing daily fantasy football, then you need to be stacking, especially in GPP contests. If you’re not, you’re losing. Stacking is a pretty simple concept. It’s when you roster multiple players from one team in your DFS lineup. You can also stack players from both teams in the same game when there’s potential for a shootout.
When you’re able to successfully target these ideal game scripts and stack appropriately, you can win big. With that in mind, let’s focus in on some key game scripts and correlating stacks for Week 2.
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Atlanta Falcons (-5.5) vs. Carolina Panthers
Stack: Cam Newton (FD: $8,200; DK: $6,600) & Christian McCaffrey (FD: $7,400; DK: $7,000)
This is a bet on matchups and (relatively) low ownership. It starts with McCaffrey. Dan Quinn’s Atlanta Falcons run a scheme that relies on fast linebackers to cover tons of ground in space and limit bigger plays. Subsequently, the Falcons gave up 11 more receptions to running backs than any other team in the league last year. This already sets up well for McCaffrey, who led all running backs in targets as a rookie then saw nine more last week.
On top of that, Greg Olsen is out with a foot injury. When Olsen sat last year, McCaffrey scored 3.35 more PPR points per game and saw two more targets per game. The Falcons lost rangy off-ball linebacker Deion Jones (foot) as well as hard-hitting safety Keanu Neal to injury last week. All of that should lead to plenty of passing game work for McCaffrey, and it’s possible his ownership is down after disappointing in a pristine home matchup last week.
Newton is a great stack partner because you give your lineup access to all of Carolina’s offensive touchdowns. Similarly based on the scheme information above, the Falcons gave up the most rushing yards in the league to quarterbacks last year. While Atlanta’s weakness to pass-catching backs is well-documented by the DFS community, it’s forgiving ways to rushing quarterbacks is less so. Also coming off a down game by his standards, Newton will assuredly go underowned despite playing in a dome against a defense that just lost some of its top speed.
Bring it Back with: Julio Jones (FD: $8,500; DK: $8,400)
Jones will score touchdowns this year. I mean, I think so. Even if he doesn’t, the dude simply eats at home against Carolina. Over his career, Jones averages almost three full more PPR points per game at home versus Carolina compared to all other games. Coming off a 19-target game, he’s a great option in cash lineups. If Devonta Freeman’s (FD: $6,800; DK: $6,000) knee keeps him out, then Tevin Coleman (FD: $5,600; DK: 5,300) becomes an autoplay based on volume and price alone.
New Orleans Saints (-8.5) vs. Cleveland Browns
Stack: Tyrod Taylor (FD: 6,600; DK: $5,900) & Jarvis Landry (FD: $6,700; DK: $6,300)
This game has the second-highest over/under on the slate (50) and Ryan freaking Fitzpatrick just hung 48 points on the Saints, so this stack should have high ownership. However, it’s the Browns, and Taylor has never gotten the respect he deserves from a fantasy football perspective. Regardless, the matchup/price combination is too tasty to pass up.
Taylor is an obvious call and works in both GPPs and cash games thanks to his rushing ability. “Fitzmagic” ran for 37 yards and a touchdown last week against the Saints, while 37 yards is typically Taylor’s rushing floor in a given week. Whether in catchup mode or neutral game script, he has the rushing floor and, given his weapons, a sneaky passing ceiling that more than justifies his super cheap price. He was the QB6 in a tougher matchup while playing in horrendous conditions last week in his first game in a new offense.
Landry, meanwhile, managed 21.8% of his 2017 air yards total just in Week 1 alone. This significantly raises his GPP ceiling, while his monstrous 37.5% Week 1 target market share ensures his safe floor is intact. He should avoid Marshon Lattimore for the most part and could legitimately catch 12+ passes if the Browns are in catchup mode.
Bring it Back with: Alvin Kamara (FD: $9,000; DK: $9,500)
Run it back with Kamara because, you know, he’s Kamara. Heck, with such a concentrated passing game on both sides of the ball and a massive over/under, I’m tempted to play Michael Thomas (FD: $8,800; DK: $8,600) here as well.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Stack: Ben Roethlisberger (FD: $7,600; DK: $6,900) & JuJu Smith-Schuster (FD: $7,200; DK: $6,400)
Based on price, matchup, Week 1 performance, and shootout potential, my bet is on Patrick Mahomes (FD: $7,500; DK: $6,100) and Tyreek Hill (FD: $8,100; DK: $7,600) to be this week’s highest-owned GPP stack. They’re both just so fun to watch and coming off massive games in a tough matchup, while Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t scaring anyone these days. The goal here is to go somewhat contrarian and benefit from the team with the highest implied team total on the entire slate.
This is partly contrarian for reasons stated above, but also because Big Ben is coming off a down performance and is still highly-priced. We already know he has very different home/road splits, averaging 25 points per game at home, but 18 on the road since 2010. On the road against Cleveland, he’s been even worse, scoring just 15.9 points per game for his career. Add in the brutal weather, and it’s easy to see why he had such a lousy performance last week.
Not only is it smart to bet on the future Hall of Famer bouncing back at home this week with the highest team total on the slate, but the matchup is pristine. The Chiefs gave up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season, then traded away cornerback Marcus Peters. Elite safety Eric Berry tore his Achilles last year and now hasn’t practiced in a month due to a heel injury. Philip Rivers was the QB3 in this matchup a week ago, despite Tyrell Williams and Travis Benjamin each dropping a touchdown…not to mention a would be 50-yard reception was dropped by Benjamin. This could be one of the defenses we attack in DFS all season.
Of course, it’s never a bad idea to use Antonio Brown (FD: $8,900; DK: $8,800) in a good matchup against a defense that will legitimately trot out three slot cornerbacks. But Smith-Schuster is significantly cheaper and will run the majority of his routes in the slot, where Keenan Allen roasted Kansas City for eight catches, 108 yards, and a touchdown. With his strong target projection, he’s playable in cash and GPPs.
Bring it Back with: Travis Kelce (FD: $6,800; DK; $5,900)
Since we’re going contrarian, we might as well go full tilt. Kelce undoubtedly ruined some lineups last week, but I’m much more interested in him being second on the team with six targets than I am with his one-catch performance. The Chargers shut him down both times last year and were the seventh-toughest tight end matchup last year. Sharp players will look beyond the box score, see the usage, and take advantage. With Delanie Walker and Greg Olsen injured, and Rob Gronkowski taking on the Jaguars, Kelce could sneakily be the best tight end play on the board and should have low ownership to boot.
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Eli Weiner is a correspondent at FantasyPros, a writer for numberFire and the former vice president of SconnieSportsTalk. For more from Eli, you can view his archive or follow him @eweinerfantasy.