The first week of the 2018 NFL season was, quite frankly, bananas. The Browns did the most Browns thing ever and recorded the first Week 1 tie in 47 years. The Buccaneers and Saints made Scorigami, Tampa Bay winning 48-40 and tying their franchise record for points scored. Sam Darnold joined the exalted company of Brett Favre by throwing a pick-six in his first NFL passing attempt and then proceeded to light the Detroit Lions on fire. Aaron Rodgers staged the greatest fourth-quarter comeback in Packers history while hopping around on one foot because of a partial MCL tear. If you watched the end of that game, you were either crying because you’re a Bears fan or crying because it was so beautiful. The Dolphins and Titans played the longest game in NFL history. All seven new head coaches lost their debuts. Fourteen different team D/STs scored 10+ fantasy points. There were 12 defensive touchdowns across the league. I don’t know the last time either of those things happened because the data I have right now only goes back to 2002. We’d been waiting a long time for football to come back, and it smacked us in the face with one of the most incredible weekends in the history of the sport.
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How Did We Do Last Week?
If you based any decisions on my Week 1 D/ST projections, there’s 18% chance you’re mad at me. But that means there’s an 82% chance you did fine! Here are the actual outcomes from the teams I had ranked in my top two tiers:
| Rank | Team | Opponent | Proj | Actual |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||
| 1 | BAL | BUF | 7.87 | 17 |
| 2 | DET | NYJ | 7.43 | 8 |
| 3 | NO | TB | 7.13 | -4 |
| 4 | JAC | NYG | 6.94 | 13 |
| 5 | PIT | CLE | 6.93 | 9 |
| 6 | MIN | SF | 6.83 | 18 |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||
| 7 | DEN | SEA | 6.82 | 12 |
| 8 | LAC | KC | 6.77 | -3 |
| 9 | NE | HOU | 6.75 | 8 |
| 10 | WAS | ARI | 6.72 | 13 |
| 11 | GB | CHI | 6.69 | 7 |
The Chargers got blown up by Tyreek Hill, and holy cow did the Saints (who I started in half my leagues) get blown up by Ryan Fitzpatrick, but everybody else scored at least seven points, which is the border to being a fantasy starter in a typical week. (Though to be fair, this was anything but a typical week.)
What About This Week?
Here are the projections for week 2:
| Rank | Team | Opp | O/U | Spread | PA | Sack | Turnovers | TD | FPTS | Yahoo Own% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||||
| 1 | LAR | vs. ARI | 46.5 | -13 | 16.75 | 2.9 | 1.43 | 0.16 | 8.17 | 100% |
| 2 | LAC | @ BUF | 43 | -7 | 18 | 2.58 | 1.45 | 0.2 | 7.81 | 92% |
| 3 | CHI | vs. SEA | 43 | -3 | 20 | 2.74 | 1.35 | 0.17 | 7.18 | 49% |
| 4 | NO | vs. CLE | 50 | -8.5 | 20.75 | 2.78 | 1.4 | 0.14 | 6.96 | 85% |
| The Still A Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||||
| 5 | PHI | @ TB | 44 | -3 | 20.5 | 2.23 | 1.46 | 0.18 | 6.84 | 99% |
| 6 | ATL | vs. CAR | 44 | -5.5 | 19.25 | 2.39 | 1.31 | 0.15 | 6.76 | 34% |
| 7 | DEN | vs. OAK | 45 | -6 | 19.5 | 1.96 | 1.52 | 0.16 | 6.74 | 93% |
| 8 | WAS | vs. IND | 45.5 | -5.5 | 20 | 2.91 | 1.22 | 0.11 | 6.7 | 3% |
| 9 | SF | vs. DET | 47.5 | -5.5 | 21 | 2.6 | 1.42 | 0.1 | 6.57 | 3% |
| 10 | HOU | @ TEN | 45 | -2 | 21.5 | 2.11 | 1.41 | 0.2 | 6.56 | 78% |
| 11 | NYJ | vs. MIA | 44 | -3 | 20.5 | 2.13 | 1.54 | 0.11 | 6.51 | 2% |
| The You Can Surely Do Better Tier | ||||||||||
| 12 | DAL | vs. NYG | 42.5 | -3 | 19.75 | 2.25 | 1.35 | 0.13 | 6.5 | 7% |
| 13 | MIN | @ GB | 46 | 1 | 23.5 | 2.58 | 1.4 | 0.16 | 6.39 | 100% |
| 14 | TEN | vs. HOU | 45 | 2 | 23.5 | 2.7 | 1.47 | 0.11 | 6.35 | 15% |
| 15 | BAL | @ CIN | 44 | 0 | 22 | 2.25 | 1.31 | 0.18 | 6.31 | 94% |
| 16 | SEA | @ CHI | 43 | 3 | 23 | 2.25 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 6.14 | 18% |
| 17 | MIA | @ NYJ | 44 | 3 | 23.5 | 2.41 | 1.32 | 0.17 | 6.14 | 1% |
| 18 | NYG | @ DAL | 42.5 | 3 | 22.75 | 2.12 | 1.32 | 0.18 | 6.05 | 6% |
| 19 | PIT | vs. KC | 53 | -5 | 24 | 2.46 | 1.48 | 0.1 | 5.99 | 81% |
| 20 | JAC | vs. NE | 45 | 2 | 23.5 | 2.36 | 1.25 | 0.17 | 5.93 | 100% |
| 21 | CIN | vs. BAL | 44 | 0 | 22 | 2.14 | 1.26 | 0.15 | 5.89 | 11% |
| 22 | GB | vs. MIN | 46 | -1 | 22.5 | 2.13 | 1.31 | 0.14 | 5.82 | 32% |
| 23 | NE | @ JAC | 45 | -2 | 21.5 | 1.94 | 1.31 | 0.13 | 5.76 | 70% |
| 24 | DET | @ SF | 47.5 | 5.5 | 26.5 | 2.33 | 1.46 | 0.16 | 5.75 | 53% |
| 25 | TB | vs. PHI | 44 | 3 | 23.5 | 2.21 | 1.26 | 0.16 | 5.72 | 1% |
| 26 | OAK | @ DEN | 45 | 6 | 25.5 | 2.46 | 1.21 | 0.13 | 5.37 | 2% |
| 27 | IND | @ WAS | 45.5 | 5.5 | 25.5 | 2.19 | 1.24 | 0.13 | 5.19 | 0% |
| 28 | CAR | @ ATL | 44 | 5.5 | 24.75 | 2.05 | 1.26 | 0.13 | 5.19 | 55% |
| 29 | BUF | vs. LAC | 43 | 7 | 25 | 1.73 | 1.24 | 0.13 | 4.78 | 2% |
| 30 | KC | @ PIT | 53 | 5 | 29 | 1.89 | 1.4 | 0.12 | 4.44 | 16% |
| 31 | CLE | @ NO | 50 | 8.5 | 29.25 | 1.78 | 1.25 | 0.11 | 3.85 | 6% |
| 32 | ARI | @ LAR | 46.5 | 13 | 29.75 | 1.99 | 1.21 | 0.1 | 3.81 | 19% |
An important note: There is no public line for the Titans-Texans game because of the uncertainty over whether or not Marcus Mariota will play. (See Below) The 45.5 point total and spread of Houston -4.5 come from our current consensus projections, which have Tennessee scoring 20.5 points and Houston scoring 25. Over the past few years, consensus projections haven’t been quite as good as Vegas at projecting points but have been only marginally worse. I will update this article (and tweet about it) as soon as a public line becomes available.
Edit: With news that he practiced on Wednesday, it looks like Mariota is going to play. The line is currently at Houson -2 with a total of 45 (compared to our initial guess of Houston -4.5 with a total of 45.5, expecting Mariota wouldn’t play). This knocks Houston down the rankings, but not as far as I thought it would. They move from 6th to 10th, but that is still good enough to keep them in the tier of startable teams. Atlanta, Denver, Washington and San Francisco have each been pushed up a spot by this move. Tennessee moves up from 18th to 14th, but I still wouldn’t start them. Baltimore, Seattle, Miami and the Giants have been pushed down a spot by this move.
Tell Me About the Top Picks
- LAR vs ARI: The Rams hosting the Cardinals looks like a home run to me and Vegas agrees with an enormous 13-point spread.
- LAC @ BUF: There were a handful of offenses that I and everyone else expected to be horrible last week. Unlike the Jets and Buccaneers, the Bills actually were. Even in Buffalo, the Chargers D/ST should make quick work of them.
- CHI vs SEA: Chicago hosting Seattle seems kind of weird here. I’m not in the habit of targeting Russell Wilson with my D/ST, and the Seahawks are only three-point underdogs. However, there are a lot of things working against them: (a) The Bears are at home, (b) The Seahawks give up a ton of sacks, (c) The Bears just acquired Khalil Mack, and they were already a threat to put up good sack numbers. (d) With Doug Baldwin out, Wilson doesn’t have many weapons at his disposal.
- NO vs CLE: I know, I know, the Saints got lit up in Week 1. If their owner in your league panic drops them, I think you should take advantage. They are 8.5-point favorites at home, and it’s against the Browns. As long as Hue Jackson is still “managing” the team, you should be targeting them regardless of the on-field personnel.
- PHI @ TB: Despite Tampa Bay making history against a (theoretically) good Saints defense, Vegas is only giving them 20.5 points against an (actually?) excellent Eagles defense. I would keep an eye on this line, but right now I feel comfortable starting the Eagles on the road.
- HOU @ TEN:
See my note above. This rank reflects an uncertain expectation that Mariota won’t play. If it becomes certain, I would expect Houston to move into the top tier.If he does play, this rank will move down, but might still be in the range of startable. Edit: Mariota will play, and this has moved Houston down from 6th to 10th, staying in the “Still a Fine Choice” Tier. - ATL vs CAR: Vegas loves this match-up, giving Carolina less than 20 points in Atlanta.
- DEN vs OAK: This is a nice home match-up for the Broncos against a Raiders defense that looked just as bad as I was hoping. (I’m from Denver, OK?)
- WAS vs IND: Vegas is clearly not a believer in the new and improved Andrew Luck, giving the Colts just 20 points in Washington.
- SF vs DET: The Lions looked horrible against the Jets in Week 1. Look for them to repeat the feat in San Francisco.
- NYJ vs MIA: The Jets looked great on both sides of the ball last night. Miami was a one-point favorite before that game started, and the line has moved in the wake of that performance to where Miami is now a three-point underdog. You could do a lot worse than starting the No. 1-scoring fantasy defense at home against the Dolphins.
- DAL vs NYG: I have this one in the “You Can Surely Do Better” tier, but I feel I should mention that Vegas really likes the Cowboys here, giving New York less than 20 points. I made them the cutoff for my bottom tier because, despite that, I’m scared of Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley.
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Jacob Herlin is a Senior Data Analyst for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, follow him @jacoblawherlin.
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