The beginning of the football season presents interesting opportunities for fantasy owners. Never do values swing more than in those first couple of games, where fantasy owners are gauging whether some big performances are flukes or for real.
This is the time you need to explore the market. Even if your fantasy team is in good shape, you never know what another manager who is struggling at quarterback might give up for Patrick Mahomes, or whether you can turn your last-round pick of DeSean Jackson into a decent running back.
A 2-0 start can evaporate pretty quickly. Don’t rest on your laurels. Go out and do your best to improve your team.
And to help you out on that endeavor, we provide our handy trade value chart. If you missed last week’s article, these values are based on 12-team, 0.5 PPR formats, so feel free to adjust accordingly.
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Quarterbacks
| Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
| Aaron Rodgers | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Cam Newton | 18 | 18 | – |
| Tom Brady | 18 | 20 | -2 |
| Drew Brees | 18 | 18 | – |
| Patrick Mahomes | 18 | 13 | +5 |
| Kirk Cousins | 15 | 13 | +2 |
| Russell Wilson | 15 | 20 | -5 |
| Deshaun Watson | 15 | 15 | – |
| Philip Rivers | 13 | 7 | +6 |
| Carson Wentz | 9 | N/A | +9 |
| Andrew Luck | 9 | 13 | -4 |
| Matthew Stafford | 7 | 7 | – |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 7 | 7 | – |
| Jared Goff | 7 | N/A | +7 |
There aren’t too many takeaways from last week, other than I feel confident that Patrick Mahomes’ hot start is not entirely fluky and Carson Wentz is back. Just . . . don’t trade for a quarterback. Seriously. Unless you’re in a league where everyone drafted a backup QB, don’t worry about your situation at the position. There are plenty of options.
Running Backs
I am concerned about David Johnson, and if you own him, you probably are, too. In 2016, he averaged about 31 pass routes per game. So far this year, he’s averaging 16. He’s lining up almost exclusively in the backfield after starting out of the slot on a significant number of snaps in 2016. In other words, all the factors that should be in play to make Johnson great simply aren’t there. Steve Wilks says he will get Johnson the ball more, but for now, he drops sharply in value. Don’t go crazy, however. He still needs to be valued as a top-10 running back, particularly in PPR formats. I’d “buy low” to an extent, but only if you are actually buying low.
Conversely, if you have some depth, I’d look to buy high on Chris Thompson in any format that gives out any sort of bonus for a reception. Jay Gruden simply does not like to have a pure bell-cow back and, even if he did, it’s unlikely that Adrian Peterson would be able to hold up under an enormous workload. The only concern with Thompson is health. In his breakout 2017 season, he averaged roughly 11 touches for 86 yards and 1/2 a touchdown per game. This year? He’s averaged 14 touches for 110 yards and half a touchdown per game. This is not a fluke. Again, you need to have depth to make a move for Thompson because of the injury risk. But if you do, don’t shy away.
Other big movers include James Conner (getting tougher to see Le’Veon Bell coming back before Week 10), Phillip Lindsay (getting harder to deny his production), and Giovani Bernard (could be one week, could be several weeks. Win now – worry about the future later). But if you’re in need of a running back, there should be plenty of options available for trade.
Wide Receivers
There isn’t too much to say about the wide receivers. Yes, as Mike Tagliere and I discussed on the Sunday night podcast, Michael Thomas is my number one wide receiver at this point, though he’s essentially a co-number one with Antonio Brown. A.J. Green, Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs all gain in value, simply because their performances have put them firmly in the truly elite class.
If there is one player worth discussing, however, it’s Josh Gordon. Since his move to the Patriots, I’ve seen Gordon traded for anywhere from a top-tier running back to a low-end starting quarterback. But as for me, I’m passing unless you can get him dirt cheap. Gordon hasn’t had a productive fantasy season since 2013 – FIVE SEASONS AGO. I understand that he should, theoretically, be catching passes from one of the all-time great quarterbacks in an outstanding offense. But you, or at least I, cannot just assume that he’s simply going to step in and hit the ground running. He obviously still has his off-field issues that he needs to fight through, he’s battling a hamstring injury, and he doesn’t know the offense. And although I know the Browns are generally incompetent, do we really think that teams were falling over themselves to offer more than the meager price the Patriots paid? Gordon has talent and I really hope he succeeds. But there’s no way I’d be willing to deal anything substantial for him at this point.
To be clear, if I owned Gordon, I would not deal him at that price above. I’d simply hold him for now and hope that everything breaks right. But if I’m looking to deal FOR him, that’s about as high as I’d go at present.
Tight Ends
| Player | Current Value | Previous Value | +/- |
| Rob Gronkowski | 41 | 41 | – |
| Travis Kelce | 35 | 29 | +6 |
| Zach Ertz | 35 | 35 | – |
| Jimmy Graham | 10 | 10 | – |
| George Kittle | 8 | 8 | – |
| Jordan Reed | 8 | 8 | – |
| Evan Engram | 8 | 8 | – |
| Kyle Rudolph | 8 | 7 | +1 |
| Trey Burton | 8 | 8 | – |
| O.J. Howard | 6 | 4 | +2 |
| Jack Doyle | 5 | 8 | -3 |
| Jared Cook | 5 | 7 | -2 |
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 5 | – |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 3 | N/A | +3 |
| David Njoku | 3 | 4 | -1 |
If you aren’t trading for one of the top three tight ends, then it really doesn’t matter. Everyone else is pretty much a throw-in to any deal. #analysis.
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Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.
