Week 3 certainly wasn’t short on surprises.
The Bills beat the Vikings by 21! The Browns actually won! The Lions had a 100-yard rusher for the first time in nearly five years! (More on that in a minute.)
Rookies were a big part of these surprises, too. I’m here to help you sort through all of the noise and find out which rookies are for real, and which ones you should stay away from in fantasy.
Here are three first-year guys whose stock rose this week, and three whose stock fell.
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Stock Up
Kerryon Johnson (RB – DET)
I know I’m probably the 10,000th person to say this, but: The last time the Detroit Lions had a 100-yard rusher was on Thanksgiving Day in 2013 when Reggie Bush did it. Finally, on Sunday night, Johnson broke that streak, wrestling away the Lions’ starting job at the same time.
The 21-year-old carried the ball 16 times for 101 yards. He only finished with 10 fantasy points in standard-scoring leagues because he couldn’t find the end zone, but Johnson was Detroit’s most electric back, by far.
Johnson has a favorable matchup this weekend, too, against the Cowboys. They’ve allowed the 18th most fantasy points to running backs this year, according to our rankings, and Dallas will be without star middle linebacker Sean Lee. Last season, with Lee out, the Cowboys gave up 1.7 yards per carry more than they did with him on the field, according to Rotoworld’s Evan Silva.
Baker Mayfield (QB – CLE)
Full disclosure — I’m a Browns fan. But I promise I’m not being a homer here.
Mayfield legitimately showed the ability to rip off big plays in Cleveland’s offense and seems to be able to utilize the weapons in the passing game — Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway, Duke Johnson, David Njoku — more than Tyrod Taylor could in his two-and-a-half games under center.
Mayfield isn’t an immediate fantasy starter, but he’s worth keeping an eye on, especially in two-quarterback or superflex leagues.
His schedule is also very easy coming up (at least in terms of fantasy). The Browns play the Raiders this weekend – who have given up the 12th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, then play the Ravens (obviously a tough matchup for any quarterback, let alone a rookie). But then he has six consecutive games against teams that rank among the eight worst defenses against quarterbacks in fantasy, according to our strength of schedule rankings. Pick Mayfield up now if you have the roster space.
Calvin Ridley (WR – ATL)
I was critical of Ridley’s role in Atlanta’s offense earlier this year, but he certainly shut me up Sunday.
Ridley now appears to be the No. 2 receiving option for Matt Ryan. The problem is, you’ll have to pay top dollar for him or use the No. 1 waiver wire claim. The Alabama product is now the No. 5 receiver in fantasy after scoring three touchdowns against the New Orleans Saints and is owned in about half of Yahoo and ESPN leagues.
Of course, he’s not going to score three touchdowns every game, but he’s worthy of flex consideration going forward. While Julio Jones owners are pulling their hair out over his usage rate in the red zone, Ridley owners will be pleased to see that all three of his scores came from inside the 20.
Stock Down
Phillip Lindsay (RB – DEN)
Just last week I was talking up Lindsay’s play so far. By Sunday, he had been picked up in 75 percent of Yahoo leagues and started in just under 50 percent. And boy, were those owners upset.
Lindsay’s day ended early — he threw several punches in a pile-up during Sunday’s game against the Ravens and was ejected. And it wasn’t just the fact that he was ejected, it was that the other running backs got a chance to shine.
Fellow rookie Royce Freeman finished the game with 12.8 points in PPR leagues, and Devontae Booker scored 9.4 on his 10 touches. After this weekend, I truthfully have no idea how this backfield is going to shake out.
D.J. Moore (WR – CAR)
It looked like Moore was going to become more of a deep threat in Carolina’s offense after Week 2. He ripped off a 56-yard touchdown against the Falcons and was targeted on the team’s final play of the game when Cam Newton threw up a Hail Mary.
But besides that one touchdown, Moore has been totally invisible. He wasn’t targeted at all in Week 3 against the Bengals and was on the field for only 49 percent of the Panthers’ offensive snaps, according to FootballGuys.com, less than Torrey Smith — who has a very similar skill set to Moore.
Moore could certainly rip off a few more long touchdowns before the season’s done, but he’s not worth rostering in fantasy for now.
Nyheim Hines (RB – IND)
There was some hope that Hines could emerge from the Colts’ backfield, especially with Marlon Mack starting out the year injured, but he’s not worth owning in any leagues at this point.
Hines has carried the ball 14 times during the first three weeks of the season, averaging 3.1 yards per carry, and he only had five carries in Week 3.
Jordan Wilkins has become the feature back in Indianapolis, carrying the ball an average of 10 times per game (although he’s yet to find the red zone). Hines has just one red zone carry all season, and none from inside the 10-yard-line, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, while Marlon Mack and Wilkins have combined for six red zone carries.
It’s clear Hines isn’t in the Colts’ plans, at least for now.
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Jon Munshaw is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jon, check out his archive and follow him @jon_munshaw.