Few weeks in recent memory have been as surprising as Week 3 of 2018. It was just plain weird, and the weirdest of the weird was the Bills’ shocking 27-6 victory over the Vikings.
As 17-point Vegas favorites, Minnesota evidently felt they wouldn’t need Dalvin Cook in a likely blowout. Well, it was a blowout all right, just not in the way that the Vikings (and just about everyone else) envisioned. Latavius Murray, who looked like a phenomenal plug-and-play RB set up for a massive workload, received just two carries (Vikings RBs as a whole only had four!). Stefon Diggs was also a complete non-factor, while Buffalo’s Josh Allen and Chris Ivory put up big stats on fantasy owners’ benches — or more likely, on the waiver wire.
It’s hard to think of a game in the last decade that produced a more unexpected result. Or maybe the last two decades. The Vikings are the first 17-point favorite to lose since the 1995 Dallas Cowboys.
Minnesota-Buffalo was hardly the only surprise of Week 3. Detroit trounced New England, Washington easily handled Green Bay, the injury-riddled Titans snuck past the Jaguars, and the Browns won their first game since 2016.
As fantasy managers, we always want to try to predict how game flow will impact fantasy stats. But sometimes things simply don’t go as expected. Here are nine more things we learned in Week 3.
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Jimmy Garoppolo is hurt and the 49ers are in trouble
Garoppolo didn’t post any massive stat lines over the first three weeks, but he certainly held his own, looking like a low-end QB1 or at worst a solid streaming option. But then he went down late in Week 3 with what the 49ers expect is a season-ending ACL tear. Just awful misfortune for a team that already lost Jerick McKinnon to the same injury.
The fantasy implications of Garoppolo’s injury are significant, as it is likely to severely drag down the entire offense. Marquise Goodwin, who appeared to have weekly WR2 potential now that he would finally get a chance to play with an above-average quarterback, will likely revert back to the boom-or-bust flex option he’s been while suffering through subpar QB play in the past. San Francisco’s other WRs fall even further off the fantasy radar. Tight end George Kittle’s breakout potential is also now severely capped, although the big-bodied Kittle will have a chance to establish himself as fellow Iowa alumni C.J. Beathard’s safety blanket.
As for the 49ers running game, downgraded QB play will likely mean fewer scoring chances and more stacked boxes. The shift from Garoppolo to Beathard will probably be felt more by Alfred Morris, a between-the-tackles grinder who needs goal line TDs to produce, than it will be by Matt Breida, who has big-play ability and could also see an uptick in catches out of the backfield.
The Patriots could really use Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman
The Patriots’ offense was hard to watch on Sunday night. Outside of a well-placed touchdown pass to James White, Tom Brady’s best throws involved tossing his helmet on the sideline.
New England didn’t run the ball nearly as well as expected, but the biggest issue was that Rob Gronkowski was constantly draped by defenders. The Lions clearly weren’t too worried about devoting coverage to Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett, and Brady didn’t seem to have a lot of trust in his wide receivers, either. Brady’s passing lines have progressively worsened each week, from 377-3 to 234-2 to 133-1 last night.
It wouldn’t be wise to expect Josh Gordon to walk in the door, instantly learn the offense and Brady’s tendencies, and become the elite WR1 that we last saw five years ago. But Gordon should at least be able to earn some defensive attention — especially after he breaks a big play or two — which could help free up Gronkowski to do Gronk things.
Meanwhile, at age 32 and coming off a major injury, Edelman isn’t going to be a world-beater. He never was, really — he’s a possession receiver that is best utilized in PPR leagues. But what Edelman does have is a great rapport with Brady, which should allow him to become the chain-moving short-and-intermediate route runner New England needs to sustain drives and score points.
The Lions have finally found a RB, the question is whether they realize it
Second-round rookie Kerryon Johnson looked fantastic on Sunday night, constantly churning out yardage on his way to the Lions’ first 100-yard rushing performance since Reggie Bush in 2013. But even as he busted big play after big play, Johnson split the carries dead evenly with LeGarrette Blount, while Theo Riddick also saw plenty of action in his customary passing-down role.
It’s beyond clear that Blount and Riddick are one-dimensional players, whereas Johnson is displaying an every-down skill set. Playing Johnson more will undoubtedly help this offense by keeping the defense off balance and increasing the potential for game-changing plays. The question is whether the Lions realize it and how long it will take them to fully turn over this backfield to Kerryon.
Until we see Matt Patricia and Jim Bob Cooter begin to feature Johnson, we can’t simply assume it will happen. Johnson has already shown enough in limited touches to push his way into the RB2 conversation, particularly in favorable matchups. But the Lions aren’t going to run the football 32 times every week like they did in Week 3, so I’d feel a lot better about declaring Johnson an every-week RB2 if we knew he’d approach 20 touches every week.
Calvin Ridley’s got game
One of the games that did have the game script we expected was Saints-Falcons, a total shootout that produced some massive fantasy stats. How those stats were divvied up, however, wasn’t exactly as anticipated.
Whether the Falcons planned ahead of time to unleash rookie Calvin Ridley against their division rivals or just made adjustments to their plan of attack during the game, Matt Ryan hooked up with Ridley early and often. Ridley finished with an astounding seven catches for 146 yards and three touchdowns, likely winning the week for the small cadre of fantasy owners who had him in their starting lineups.
Julio Jones owners, who have been eagerly awaiting a touchdown breakthrough for going on three years, will surely grimace at the knowledge that Ridley caught as many TDs in this game as Jones has since the beginning of the 2017 season. Jones hardly had a bad game himself (five catches for 96 yards), but much of that production did not come until the Saints moved shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore off Jones and onto Ridley.
Ridley’s massive fantasy day was clearly game-plan specific, so we shouldn’t overreact here: Jones is still the top option in this offense. Still, there is a clear opening for Ridley to leap frog Mohamed Sanu and Austin Hooper and establish himself as second in line for weekly looks from Ryan.
The Falcons have traditionally spread the ball around too much for their number two wide receiver to have much fantasy value, but Jones hasn’t previously had a sidekick as talented as Mr. Ridley. Ridley instantly vaults onto the weekly WR3/flex radar, and if he can see consistent targets it’s entirely believable that he could put up WR2 numbers.
For one week at least, the Panthers fulfilled their pledge to give Christian McCaffrey 30 touches
The Panthers made headlines in the preseason when offensive coordinator Norv Turner said it was “realistic” to expect Christian McCaffrey to get 25-30 touches per game, and head coach Ron Rivera similarly floated a 21-30 touch goal for McCaffrey after he only got 16 touches in Week 1.
Most onlookers considered those statements to be far from “realistic,” but for at least a week, the Panthers delivered on their promise. After catching 14 passes but rushing just eight times in Week 2, McCaffrey caught only two passes but ran the ball 28 times in Week 3, finishing with a whopping 194 yards from scrimmage.
If there was any downside for McCaffrey owners, it was that he failed to score while Cam Newton vultured two goal line rushing TDs and even C.J. Anderson found the end zone on a screen pass. But make no mistake, even though McCaffrey is unlikely to approach 30 touches every game, he should be one of the most highly utilized RBs in the league, which makes him an every-week RB1, especially in PPR leagues.
The Cardinals still don’t quite get how to use David Johnson
If you’re a glass-half-full kind of David Johnson owner, you could focus on the fact that your first-round pick caught at least four passes and scored a touchdown for the second time in three games. You could also try to think happy thoughts about how this offense could eventually be not-terrible in the second half of the season as Josh Rosen settles in at quarterback.
But back in reality, things are looking gloomy. DJ failed to surpass 13 carries and 50 rushing yards for the third consecutive week, and he was rarely used as a wide receiver in Week 3 as the Cardinals promised. Most maddeningly of all, Johnson has ceded roughly 30 percent of the carries this season to fourth-round rookie Chase Edmonds, including a critical 3rd-and-2 carry in the waning moments that may have cost Arizona the game against the Bears.
Despite the Cardinals massive offensive struggles, common sense dictates that Johnson should remain a low-end RB1 based on volume alone. But the Cardinals’ coaching staff seems to be lacking in the common sense department at the moment, so Johnson owners can only hope that Steven Wilks and Mike McCoy eventually recognize that featuring your best player helps win games.
Chris Carson is firmly back on the fantasy map
The Seahawks barely played Chris Carson in Week 2, and then made bizarre and contradictory explanations for the decision after the fact. Fantasy owners were left having no idea what was truly going on with the Seattle backfield, leaving Carson as a dicey flex option heading into Week 3.
With Carson sitting on the bench of many fantasy teams’ rosters, Pete Caroll and Co. finally used him the way they had been promising they would all preseason. After getting a total of 13 carries over the first two games, Carson handled 32 carries in Week 3, posting the first 100-yard rushing performance and rushing score of his young career.
It’s always risky to assume the status quo will hold in Seattle, but based on all of the preseason reports and Carson’s Week 3 usage, it does seem like his Week 2 benching may have truly been due to miscommunication on Seattle’s coaching staff. For now, we have to consider Carson the heavy favorite for weekly touches in the Seahawks’ backfield, and that puts him squarely back on the RB2 radar, particularly in favorable matchups.
Aaron Rodgers can’t catch a break
As a legitimate GOAT candidate who is still in the prime of his career, Aaron Rodgers is the kind of fantasy asset that has to be in your lineup whenever he’s able to suit up. It’s easy to look at Rodgers’ numbers this season and feel like he’s failing your fantasy team, but his performance has actually been quite impressive considering what he’s had to deal with.
Rodgers is unlikely to regain his mobility at any point this season due to the knee injury he suffered in Week 1, but that alone shouldn’t prevent him from being an elite fantasy asset. But he needs some help from his teammates. Despite limping around and even picking up a slight hamstring injury as well, Rodgers could have had a much bigger stat line in Week 3 if he hadn’t been killed by dropped passes and penalties.
Nothing that has happened over the first three weeks should drastically affect your expectations for Rodgers going forward. It’s fair to consider playing a Drew Brees or Patrick Mahomes over Rodgers in the short term if you’re fortunate to own both, but Rodgers is still a solid bet to be the best quarterback in fantasy football from this point forward.
Baker Mayfield is the real deal
We learned this one on Thursday night, but it’s well worth covering here. Coming into the draft, Mayfield checked most of the boxes to be an elite NFL quarterback — the biggest knock on him was his height. Well, Mayfield didn’t seem to have any problem peering over the offensive line and finding passing lanes against the Jets, efficiently completely 17-of-23 passes for 201 yards and leading the Browns to a comeback victory. His stat line would have been even better if not for a few drops.
Hue Jackson took some time to acknowledge the obvious, but we now know that Mayfield will be the Browns’ QB going forward. QB is as deep as ever in fantasy football, so you may not need Mayfield on your roster. But it wouldn’t be surprising if he quickly becomes a QB1 consideration, particularly for those who stream the position.
Mayfield’s ascension also provides a major boost to the team’s other skill position players. While Jarvis Landry was already an underrated WR2 thanks to playing a more multi-dimensional role in Cleveland than he did in Miami, he now could push for low-end WR1 status. Antonio Callaway still has to become more consistent, but he’s now an intriguing WR3/flex option with upside. David Njoku hasn’t looked like a TE1 option to date, but this is not the time to give up on him, and the Mayfield era should also only be good news for Carlos Hyde, who has a stranglehold on the Browns’ running back duties and should see plenty of scoring opportunities going forward.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
