In hopes that my wife doesn’t read this, I’ll let you in on a common line uttered in our house. “It was on sale, I had to buy it!” I can’t tell you how many times I’ve come home to see multiple packages delivered with the mail only to hear this line afterward. Somehow we ended up with a Roomba and a new vacuum within a month. Both on sale, of course.

Marketing agencies are slick. They know human psychological behavior. Getting these good deals gives us a high and makes us spend money when we wouldn’t normally. We always want the next great deal.

Fantasy football is similar in that we’re always on the lookout for these deals, or what we call “value” in the fantasy world, come draft time. The best way to do this is by reading what the market is doing. Of course, we always want what we perceive as the best players on our team, but there’s certainly an ideal way of going about getting these guys.

Let’s say you’re in the fifth round of your draft and it’s your pick. You’re super prepared for this draft, so you have your rankings all done and in front of you. The highest ranked guy on your board, Player X, has a seventh-round average draft position (ADP), while Player Y has a fifth-round grade. You like Player X more and want him on your team more than you want Player Y, so why not take X now? Well, we might not because we humans love value.

Why take Player X at a price two rounds higher than you can typically get him? Drafting Player Y in the fifth and Player X in the seventh gives you two fifth-round players rather than a fifth-round player and seventh-round player. We’re creating value and strengthening our team.

These instances constantly happen in the draft due to the nature of evaluations. One man’s reach might be another man’s value. Let’s take a look at some of the receivers that are currently being undervalued based on their ADP.

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Allen Robinson (CHI)
My Rank: WR15
ECR: WR18
ADP: WR21

If you were playing fantasy in 2015, you remember Robinson’s insane breakout. He grabbed 80 catches for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns en route to a WR6 finish despite playing with Blake Bortles and propelled himself into being a top-15 pick in 2016. If you were playing in 2016, then you’d remember Allen Robinson’s disastrous 2016 season. Despite getting the exact same amount of targets (151) and hauling in a similar amount of catches (73) as he did in 2015, everything else was a massive bust. With just 883 yards and six touchdowns, he finished as a WR2 or better only five times in 16 weeks.

But his 2016 numbers should not have been nearly that bad. He was still plenty fast, coming in well above the average wide receiver in game speed. Despite being third in the league in Air Yards, he came in 37^th in receiving yards. Almost unfathomable.

Consider this his rebound tour. Mitch Trubisky looks to take a big step forward with new head coach Matt Nagy, and Robinson was signed to a big free agent deal over the summer to be the guy that helps him along in his development. Robinson should see plenty of volume with the relative lack of passing options in that Bears offense. Tarik Cohen is solid out of the backfield, but who else are they throwing to?

Trey Burton is getting hype, but he’s an undersized tight end who has never done much. Taylor Gabriel flashed in Atlanta in 2016, but there’s no chance he’s good based on any sort of historical data for players of his size. Anthony Miller is getting good reports, but he’s a rookie and will undoubtedly take time to adjust. Allen Robinson comes with risk, but so do the players drafted behind him. His upside is worth it.

Robby Anderson (NYJ)
My Rank: WR31
ECR: WR36
ADP: WR42

Last year’s PPR WR18 is going as the 42^nd wide receiver off the board? Really? From Week 7 to Week 13, Anderson was the overall WR5 in both raw points and points per game. He was 12^th in Air Yards for all wide receivers, and his 13-yard average depth of target ranked higher than guys like DeAndre Hopkins, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, and T.Y. Hilton. He’s a legitimate deep ball threat who gets great separation (16^th among WRs) but still catches plenty of balls when he doesn’t, coming in 29^th in contested catch rate at the position.

Josh McCown was a serviceable quarterback for the Jets, but third-overall pick Sam Darnold is on a whole different level and certainly helps Anderson’s stock. Many will point to his slow start or poor finish, but the third-year receiver should only build on his promising second-year campaign. Another WR2 finish might be a lofty goal, but he’ll almost certainly exceed his draft day value if his ADP remains where it is.

Kelvin Benjamin (BUF)
My Rank: WR37
ECR: WR45
ADP: WR44

I’ll go against the grain with Benjamin. I will flat out say I don’t like Benjamin as a player, but this situation is going to be perfect for him. The Bills have had the fewest passing attempts in the league the last three seasons, and it’s not even really that close with them, having over 100 fewer than the next lowest team. This is, at least in part, due to Tyrod Taylor who is now in Cleveland.

Taylor leaving is the absolute best thing to happen to Benjamin in Buffalo. Without going too much into Taylor’s quarterbacking, the one thing that is universally agreed upon is he’s safe with the football, which is not a recipe for success for a guy who gets as little separation as Benjamin does. We saw Nathan Peterman have no regard for taking care of the football and Josh Allen’s biggest knock was the same.

Benjamin had a lost year in 2017 after being traded. I know he isn’t exciting, and the Bills will be bad, but there’s not much competition for targets in Buffalo, and he’s a big body who could see plenty of red zone work. He’s worth a look as a WR4/flex due to his volume and touchdown upside.

Cameron Meredith (NO)
My Rank: WR36
ECR: WR53
ADP: WR54

Last month I projected Meredith to see around 90 targets as the second receiver for Drew Brees. 39 receivers hit that 90 target threshold in 2017, with 31 of them finishing as a WR3 or better. Only two of those eight that didn’t make the cut, Jamison Crowder and DeSean Jackson, played with a competent quarterback. Drew Brees is not only a competent quarterback, but still one of the best in the entire league at 39 years old.

I know Meredith is coming off an ACL tear, but he will be an entire year removed from the surgery come Week 1. In 2016, Meredith played 12 full games and had 89 targets in those, which happens to line up directly with what he should see this year. What about his 137.6 half-PPR fantasy points on those 89 targets? They would have made him the WR32 last season. And this is with Matt Barkley, Brian Hoyer, and Jay Cutler! Are you going to tell me he won’t do better with Drew Brees? My WR36 ranking bakes in some of the injury problems and coming to a new team, but Meredith going as the WR54 is absolute insanity.

You might not agree with all of my rankings, and that’s perfectly fine! The game would be boring if we all had the same thoughts. The important thing is to think deeper about fantasy strategy and to try and maximize your team’s chances to win with value on draft day. Knowing what the rest of the room or industry is doing by gauging ADP is a great way to do that.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back tomorrow with some overvalued players.

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Ryan Melosi is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive and follow him @RTMelos.