The Rams Wide Receivers Player Profile (2018 Fantasy Football)

Throughout the offseason, we’ve put together an impressive list of player profiles, but we haven’t hit on any of the Rams wide receivers. In a recent poll on Twitter, multiple followers suggested that the Rams trio should be covered in one article. With limited time remaining in the offseason, it seemed like the best way to approach them.

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If you’ve stared at the draft board confused over the last few months trying to figure out how to value Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp, know that you are not alone. The current ADP (average draft position) of the trio is Cooks at WR20, Woods at WR32, and Kupp at WR39. In this article, we’ll determine which of the three is the best value, while also determining who you should be avoiding.

YEAR ONE OF MCVAY

It was a year for Rams fans to remember in 2017, as Sean McVay came in and completely changed the atmosphere in Los Angeles. They went from the NFL’s lowest-scoring offense (14.0 points per game) to the 3rd-highest scoring offense (28.9 points per game), leaving most chasing the players involved in this year’s drafts. Most would be shocked to learn that Jared Goff totaled just 477 pass attempts in 2017, which ranked 18th in the NFL, behind guys like Case Keenum, Dak Prescott, and Andy Dalton. Part of the reason for the limited attempts came down to his efficiency, as his 0.51 fantasy points per pass attempt ranked sixth in the NFL. If he hadn’t been as efficient, the offense would’ve required more attempts. He also played just 15 games, so his actual total should have been right around 509 attempts.

When looking at the breakdown of targets in year one under McVay, the running backs saw 19.6 percent (19th in NFL), wide receivers saw 62.5 percent (7th in NFL), and tight ends saw 17.1 percent (21st in NFL). It’s fair to say that the wide receiver position benefits from McVay there and as you’ll see later in the article, so does their efficiency. Here’s a look at what the combination of Woods, Kupp, and Sammy Watkins did last year when all three were on the field (12 games):

Some may look at the year-end numbers and think, “how did Kupp wind up with 94 targets?” Here’s the difference for Kupp in games where Woods was in the lineup, compared to when he was out of the lineup:

As you can see, Kupp’s numbers were extremely inflated once Woods missed Weeks 12-14, ballooning his overall numbers. With Woods in the lineup, Kupp never topped 76 yards and topped 65 yards just once.

WHAT DOES COOKS CHANGE?

Some will tell you that when you trade away a first-round pick away for a wide receiver, he’s going to be heavily involved. That happens to be true most of the time, but what about last year when they traded away a second-round pick for Sammy Watkins? He saw just 70 targets despite playing 15 games, which ranked 59th among wide receivers. Well, it’s a unique situation because Watkins was traded to the Rams in the middle of the preseason and Watkins never had a chance to learn the offense or develop any chemistry with Goff, making him somewhat of a decoy in the offense a majority of the year. Cooks was acquired before the NFL Draft and was reportedly training with Goff before that. I’m not worried about him being used as a decoy in this offense.

Now we have Cooks, who has seen at least 114 targets in each of the last three seasons coming into the offense to disrupt the target share. If you recall, the Saints traded Cooks because he “wanted to be more involved” in the offense. Keep in mind he saw 246 targets in the two previous years with them. After seeing 114 targets with the Patriots in 2017, he’s found himself on his third team in as many years, though the Rams made a massive commitment to him with a five-year, $81 million extension. The Rams clearly have a role/plan for Cooks.

Knowing that there was an average of just 17.1 targets to go around between the three wide receivers last year (again, when they all played), it’s going to be difficult for Cooks to hit even the 114 targets he hit last year, especially when you think about the fact that Woods and Kupp are now in year-two of the offense. Some will try and tell you that the addition of Cooks just means more targets for the wide receivers, but remember that they already ranked seventh in the NFL among wide receiver target shares. Meanwhile, you don’t want to take targets away from Todd Gurley, who is one of the best receiving-down backs in the game, and the Rams are reportedly expecting second-year tight end Gerald Everett to play a bigger role in 2018. Unless you’re projecting a massive increase in pass attempts, it’s not likely that the wide receivers see many more targets. Being optimistic, we can up the number to 18.0 targets between the three of them, but by doing that, you’re expecting them to throw the ball 20-30 more times in 2018.

THE PROJECTED TARGET SHARE

It’s do-or-die time, the area you care about – how do we project their targets in 2018? I hate to be the bearer of bad news for those who are Woods supporters, but he’s the one who will lose targets to Cooks. They’re primarily perimeter options, while Kupp played a specific role out of the slot roughly 61 percent of the time when Watkins and Woods were on the field in 2017. Again, they’ll all move around, but Cooks and Woods are the primary 1 and 2 options lining up outside. This will leak down to Kupp a tad, but Woods is the one who is affected the most.

I’m not willing to move Woods down to the Watkins range of targets, simply because he was so efficient with his targets last year, and he now understands the offense better than ever. Putting both him and Kupp in the 5.5-target range feels about right, which would leave Cooks in the 6.1- to 7.0-target range. Putting these into season-end totals, Woods and Kupp would be right around the 85-target mark, while Cooks would be in the 98-110 target range.

WHO GETS THE MOST VALUABLE TARGETS?

One thing that I didn’t realize until we had Matt Waldman on the podcast was just how much Kupp was used in the red zone last year. On the year, there were 55 pass attempts directed at wide receivers in the red zone. Here’s how that target distribution looked:

It seems as if Goff wanted to target Kupp when there was some distance between him and the end zone, but once inside the five-yard-line, the bigger wide receivers were preferred. Knowing that Kupp saw more than double the red zone targets that any other wide receiver did is huge, as the average red zone target was worth 1.81 standard fantasy points, whereas the average non-red zone target was worth 1.06 standard fantasy points. Here’s Cooks’ totals in the red zone throughout his career:

Knowing that he’s seen a career-high of just 12 red zone targets in two of the league’s best offenses (Saints, Patriots), it should tell you that he’s not going to come in and steal those Kupp targets in the red zone. It seems likely that he’ll be used in the Watkins role in that area of the field, while also utilizing him on gadget plays.

2018 OUTLOOK

It’s going to be somewhat difficult to project these wide receivers week-in and week-out, as the cornerback matchups will often come into play, though McVay will make adjustments to maximize the talent on the roster. Cooks is the most talented player in this group, even if Woods and Kupp are reliable options, but make no mistake about it, Cooks is not an alpha-dog that requires 140 targets. Below you’ll find my actual projections on each player, though the path to production will likely be a bumpy one. Because of that, Cooks should be looked at as an ideal high-end WR3 on your fantasy squad who’ll hit those numbers more often than not with some week-winning performances, while Kupp is the touchdown-dependent WR3/4. That leaves us fading Woods at his current cost of WR32, which puts him as an every-week starter on someone’s fantasy team. Knowing that he saw essentially one-third of Kupp’s red zone targets should have you concerned. He likely belongs in the WR4 conversation with guys like Pierre Garcon and Nelson Agholor. In the end, you shouldn’t be going out of your way to get any of these Rams players at their current cost, though Cooks is the one who’s closest to where he should be. I’ll leave you with my 2018 projections for each player.

Brandin Cooks: 104 targets, 61 receptions, 921 yards, 6 touchdowns, 50 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Cooper Kupp: 92 targets, 63 receptions, 794 yards, 5 touchdowns
Robert Woods: 90 targets, 59 receptions, 798 yards, 5 touchdowns

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.