Once a new head coach takes over an offense, there are lots of fantasy owners who panic about what it means for the current skill-position players, though there are certain situations where the coaching change should generate positive emotions. With the addition of Matt Nagy and Mark Helfrich to the Bears coaching staff, I thought it would’ve send some life into Jordan Howard‘s ADP, but he currently sits as the RB16 taken in PPR drafts, down from the RB9 spot he held down in last year’s drafts.
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After finishing second in the NFL in rushing his rookie season, Howard took a slight step back in 2017, which could be the reason fantasy owners are hesitant to spend a first- or second-round draft pick on him this year. The odd part is that Howard did finish as a top-14 PPR running back in each of the last two seasons, so his RB16 price-tag suggests the public expects regression, though you might have a hard time finding where it comes from.
OVERCOMING OBSTACLES
It’s been rather impressive to see what Howard’s been able to do over the last two seasons, totaling 2,435 rushing yards while playing for John Fox in his vanilla offense. Just how impressive is that? He has more rushing yards than LeSean McCoy, Todd Gurley, Mark Ingram, and Melvin Gordon over the last two years. In fact, the only running backs with more are Ezekiel Elliott and Le’Veon Bell. His 15 rushing touchdowns rank 11th in that timeframe. While that may not be as impressive as his yardage totals, he scored those while playing alongside Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley, Mike Glennon, and rookie Mitch Trubisky.
According to my study on what running backs should’ve been expected to score based on where their carries/targets took place (read it here), Howard scored 63.2 fantasy points inside the red-zone, while the average running back would’ve scored just 40.7 points. His +22.5 score ranked as the sixth-best inside the red-zone, so it’s fair to say that he was money there and will continue to carry that role. Outside the 20’s, though, it wasn’t as pretty, as he scored 17.6 points fewer than the average running back. That’s likely in-part to do with the fact that he doesn’t break many long touchdown runs (just one from outside the red-zone in 2017) and doesn’t catch many long passes. While it’s a negative, there’s definitely room for optimism.
It’s always good to know that research leads down a similar path, so when you hear that our own Jody Smith found Howard to be potentially the best running back in the red zone last year, producing a first-down on 15 of his 32 carries inside the 20, and losing more than a yard on just three carries, you know we’re headed down the right path. Howard also didn’t turn the ball over in the red zone, which we know most coaches adore, especially when you have a young quarterback under center.
LACK OF OUTSIDE INTEREST
After talking about how Howard seemed to lack what you’d want in-between the 20’s, you’d have to assume they’d bring in some competition for carries, right? What about once we started hearing trade rumors prior to the draft? I’ll admit, it piqued my interest to see what the Bears would do at the position, but here we are, in August, and the Bears added NOBODY. The depth chart behind Howard is Tarik Cohen, Benny Cunningham, and Taquan Mizzell.
While Cohen can be a legitimate threat in the right role, he’s not someone who you want to carry the ball more than 8-10 times per game (I’ll be highlighting that in an upcoming NextGenStats article). Cunningham is just a guy on the depth chart who has totaled just 180 carries during his five-year career, and Mizzell is a former undrafted free agent who weighs 185 pounds. So, to be clear, Howard is not going to lose his job in-between the 20’s, and he was a monster in the red-zone, so he’s not losing that role, either. What this amounts to is a lot of guaranteed carries, something that you cannot say about many running backs. Even if you’re worried about his passing-game involvement, there’s a stat you should know. There’s been 69 running backs who’ve totaled at least 200 carries over the last four years, and just three of them failed to finish as top-24 running backs. Howard’s floor is very much intact.
WHAT CHANGES IN 2018
It’s not just the coaching staff that changed as we head into 2018, as the pass-catching corps has been completely revamped, as all three wide receiver positions, as well as the tight end position have new starters. You may be wondering – does this help or hurt Howard’s production considering they need to “get theirs” too? Well, truth be told, it can really only help his chances to see fewer defenders in the box. According to NFL’s NextGenStats, Howard saw eight or more defenders on 43.1 percent of his carries in 2017, which ranked as the seventh-most in the NFL. The average in the NFL among running backs was 31 percent in 2017. With Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, Anthony Miller, and Taylor Gabriel on the field, defenses will be forced to remain honest the majority of time. It’s the reason that Todd Gurley saw eight or more defenders on just 16.9 percent of his carries.
With Nagy coming from the Andy Reid coaching tree, does he run with a one-back system like Reid has, or does he go with the timeshare approach that Doug Pederson has employed in Philadelphia? Based on Kareem Hunt‘s usage Weeks 13-16, which was the only time Nagy took over play-calling duties from Reid in 2017, it appears he’d be more like Reid in this area. In those games where Nagy called the plays, Hunt totaled 108 combined carries/targets, while the rest of the roster had 17 of them, which is an even bigger piece of the pie than Reid was giving him. In fact, Hunt had carry totals of 24, 25, and 29 in that stretch, three of his four highest totals of the season. But the best part about Howard is that we don’t have to figure out the whole timeshare business, because again, they didn’t add another running back to the stable. Think about the Colts – you’re wondering about Marlon Mack, Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and Robert Turbin, which screams timeshare. Meanwhile, we have Jordan Howard (who ranks third in rushing over the last two years) and Tarik Cohen. We know Cohen will be involved, but this is far from a cloudy timeshare.
Although it’s a small sample size, Nagy appeared to run a faster-paced offense than Reid as well, averaging 63.3 plays per game, while Reid was hovering around 60 plays per game. This was something Pederson has done, too, as his offenses have averaged over 67 plays per game over the last two seasons, which is the highest mark in football. There are plenty of question marks surrounding Nagy because we’ve never seen him take over a whole team, as some offensive coordinators have struggled when moved into the head coach role. Because of that, it’s hard to give you absolute concrete facts, but all the signs point to a Reid-style offense, which has produced a top-20 running back in 15-of-18 seasons, including nine running backs finishing in the top-eight.
RECEIVING PROBLEM
Not everything is pretty for Howard, who is far from a three-down back in the NFL. Most will look at his 32 targets last year, see 23 receptions for 125 yards and think, “He probably just wasn’t used much because of Cohen,” but that’s not quite true. It’s Howard’s struggles that forced the Bears to look in a different direction, as even third-string running back Benny Cunningham got 26 targets in 14 games. Howard has now dropped 15 passes on just 82 career targets, including a five-drop game in 2016. We heard that Howard had eye surgery prior to the 2017 season which was supposed to correct his issue, but dropping 6-of-32 targets wasn’t a good sign. If he’s got one thing going for him, it’s that Nagy wasn’t there for all that, so there’s a fresh slate. In a recent interview, Nagy said, “There’s this notion that he is just a first- and second-down back, and I don’t believe that. Jordan can play all three downs. We’re gonna do that.”
In order for Howard to improve on his 2016 and 2017 finishes, he’s going to need to be utilized in the passing-game a bit more, as there hasn’t been a running back with less than 30 receptions to finish as a top-eight PPR running back over the last five years. Howard has caught less than 30 receptions in each of his first two seasons. The problem with projecting Howard for increased usage in that department is that Cohen is slated for much of that work, as are the receivers and tight ends. With all the weapons on the team, it’s unlikely they target the running back position the 133 times they did last season, which ranked eighth in the league. Still, there was no running back who had at least 220 carries (he’s getting at least that) with less than 23 receptions, so he should very well just fall into those.
2018 OUTLOOK
There’s been a lot of things that’ve changed around Howard, but none of it points in the wrong direction. In fact, the two things that matter most changed for the better. The offense’s overall potential, the offensive line (Bears will get Kyle Long back and they drafted James Daniels in the second-round), and the lack of competition on the depth chart. In fact, I’d argue that he’s a top-10 running back in terms of safety, though that doesn’t tell the whole story, right? Knowing that he needs to increase his passing-game usage is a legit concern, especially in PPR formats. It’s what will prevent him from finishing as a top-six running back in the format, no matter how good the offense is. That’s why his ADP has been kept in-check this offseason, but make no mistake about it, he’s going to finish as a top-15 running back no matter what format you play in. Knowing that RB16 is his current draft position, I’d say that Howard is somewhat of a value in early 2018 drafts, though he’s not going to win you your league like Todd Gurley did in a similar situation last year. He’s a fine low-end RB1, but an even better high-end RB2. My 2018 projection: 270 carries, 1,175 rushing yards, 8 rushing touchdowns, 31 targets, 22 receptions, 176 receiving yards, 0 receiving touchdowns
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.