Is it the year you’re bound and determined to follow some sort of draft strategy? Maybe you’re trying to find out what all the Zero-RB buzz is about, or maybe you want to snag as many top-15 running backs as possible. Whatever you’re thinking, stop. There is no one strategy that works 100 percent of the time, that I can tell you for certain.
What I can tell you is the rounds that you should be aiming to get players in, regardless of position, regardless of what any strategy tells you to do. That’s the funny thing about history, it tells us what we need to know about fantasy football. There is position scarcity to take into consideration, but how many times have you heard people say (myself included) that there are just 13-15 running backs they feel comfortable with? Well, what about the fact that there were just nine running backs who totaled 1,000 yards rushing last year? Keep in mind that 2017 was an “up” year for running backs, while it was a “down” year for wide receivers.
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Because many attacked the wide receiver position early in drafts last year, most are going running back-heavy to start 2018 due to the bad taste in their mouth from Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jordy Nelson, and Mike Evans. Is that right, though?
Today, we’ll talk about where you should target each running back in your drafts this year. I’ve grasped these tiers based on countless mock drafts and best-ball leagues that allowed me to gauge the market and try different approaches. Based on what I’ve learned in all of those, here are the results. Keep in mind that these rankings and tiers are based on half-PPR settings in a 12-team league, as it will give the widest range of usability in leagues. If you’d like to see my rankings in standard or full-PPR, they can be viewed right here.
Here are the links to the other positional tier lists:
Quarterbacks
Wide Receivers
Tight Ends
Tier One (Round 1)
Let’s not play around and get cute here. These two running backs are atop the draft and it shouldn’t be all that close, either. Some will say that Gurley isn’t the safest due to his 2016 season, but knowing that he underwent a massive coaching change, he’s as safe as they come heading into 2018. While it’s rare that a running back repeats as the RB1 in back-to-back seasons, he’s most likely to. If you were to guarantee me that Bell wouldn’t be punished for his holdout like he was last year, I’d consider him at No. 1 overall in PPR formats. These two are the cream of the crop.
Tier Two (Round 1)
Saquon Barkley
Ezekiel Elliott
David Johnson
This tier is without a doubt going to make some people upset, but hear me out. While Elliott and Johnson have proven it before, they’re now on significantly worse teams than they were in years past. Elliott has a great offensive line, but what’s forcing opposing defenses to remain honest? It’s also highly unlikely that they sneak into the top-12 scoring offenses, which produces 75 percent of top-six running backs. As for Johnson, he’s got nothing but his talent to live on and we’ve seen players like LeSean McCoy finish lower than they were supposed to due to surrounding talent. The Cardinals offensive line wasn’t good to begin with and they just lost their starting center for the year, while the offense now plays under Mike McCoy, who has never produced a run-game that’s finished top-10 in rushing touchdowns (that’s through nine teams). Barkley was drafted No. 2 overall by the Giants, who added multiple pieces to the offensive line and have Pat Shurmur coming in to do the play-calling. With all the talent on the offensive side of the ball, this could be a top-10 scoring offense, which is why I’m leaning Barkley, though I can see the point being made for any of these three.
Tier Three (Round 1-2)
Alvin Kamara
Leonard Fournette
Melvin Gordon
It’s tough not to raise Kamara into tier two, but it’s unlikely he garners any more than 250 touches, which would still be an improvement on his 201 touches from last year. Regression is coming, but an uptick in volume should help make up for that. Fournette would be in the tier above if he didn’t have chronic ankle issues that may force him to be sidelined from time-to-time. If he plays all 16 games, he’s a top-three running back. Gordon is the underappreciated one, as he’s now finished with 2,997 total yards and 24 touchdowns over the last two years. It’s also said that he’ll see an uptick in targets with Hunter Henry out for the season, which only increases the appeal. If he’s not hurt, he’s a lock to finish as a top-8 running back.
Tier Four (Round 2)
Kareem Hunt
Dalvin Cook
Devonta Freeman
Joe Mixon
Jordan Howard
This is the most interesting tier, as you get to pick your poison. Freeman and Howard present safety, while Hunt, Cook, and Mixon offer what appears to be top-five upside. Despite totaling 90.7 percent of the running back carries last year, Hunt finished as an RB2 or better just 62.5 percent of the time. Cook played just four games and will now have to compete with the successful Latavius Murray, though most expect him to return to the workhorse role. Mixon had a horrid start to his season but improved as the year went on once Jeremy Hill went down with an injury. The Bengals added multiple pieces to their offensive line, combined with Mixon’s three-down skill-set, there’s reason for optimism.
Tier Five (Round 3)
Christian McCaffrey
LeSean McCoy
Jerick McKinnon
This is the “last of running backs I’d feel comfortable with as my potential RB1” tier, though they’re best-suited as RB2s on your fantasy team. McCaffrey is one of the safest options at the position but doesn’t offer you top-five upside. By drafting him, you’ll want to surround him with some high-upside options. McCoy is now 30 years old, plays on a bad offense, and his offensive line lost three starters this offseason. The volume will be there, but the efficiency won’t match years past. As for McKinnon, he was paid to be “the guy” in San Francisco, though he’s not a player you want carrying the ball 250 times over the course of a season. Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t check-down all that much last year, but it’s clear Kyle Shanahan wanted him on the roster and has a clear plan for him. The recent calf strain forced the 49ers to sign Alfred Morris, which adds another level of concern, as Morris has succeeded under Shanahan in the past.
Tier Six (Rounds 4-6)
Alex Collins
Sony Michel
Lamar Miller
Ronald Jones
Mark Ingram
Kenyan Drake
Derrick Henry
Rashaad Penny
Royce Freeman
Jay Ajayi
Yes, this is a rather large tier, but it’s pretty easy to make the case for any of them over one another. Collins played out of his mind last year, but their corps of pass-catchers improved drastically this offseason and Kenneth Dixon is still lurking. I came close to putting Collins into the tier above this one. Michel comes with more upside than anyone, but he just had his knee drained during training camp and is missing out on preseason reps. Miller is solid but may lose his job when D’Onta Foreman is ready to return. I could make the argument that Jones should be higher, as the Bucs drafted him to the “the guy” in the backfield, but they’re making him earn the starting gig. Ingram being suspended makes him a value if you can find a four-week replacement. Drake is without a doubt the most talented running back in Miami, but Frank Gore won’t rot on the bench all year. Henry got rid of DeMarco Murray but inherited Dion Lewis, so it’s tough to say he should be upgraded. Penny was drafted in the first-round, but all reports keep saying that Chris Carson is going to start. Odd. Freeman is expected to be the primary 1-2 down back, but there’s competition throughout the depth chart. Ajayi has been mediocre for the last two seasons, but now plays on a high-scoring offense and behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Will Doug Pederson change his ways and use a workhorse running back?
Tier Seven (Rounds 6-7)
Rex Burkhead
Dion Lewis
Kerryon Johnson
Tevin Coleman
Marshawn Lynch
Marlon Mack
This is the “this player has value in a timeshare, but could win your league with an injury” tier. Burkhead may have already gotten a large bump with Sony Michel having to miss two weeks of training camp, and was already an RB2 or better 60 percent of the time last year. Lewis finished the year as a top-15 running back and he didn’t start until Week 6, but now has to deal with Derrick Henry in Tennessee. Johnson was drafted high in the second-round, so despite LeGarrette Blount, Theo Riddick, and Ameer Abdullah, they obviously felt it was necessary to address the position. Coleman is what he is at this point, but would be a league-winner if Devonta Freeman were to miss time. Lynch is now 32 years old and has to deal with Doug Martin, who Jon Gruden absolutely adores. And then Mack is someone who was expected to take the starting job, but the Colts continually say it’ll be a rotating backfield, though he’s likely to lead them in touches. He also just strained a hamstring in the first preseason game, making him even riskier.
Tier Eight (Rounds 8-9)
Jamaal Williams
Carlos Hyde
C.J. Anderson
Duke Johnson
Bilal Powell
Tarik Cohen
Chris Thompson
Aaron Jones
T.J. Yeldon
Nick Chubb
Giovani Bernard
Isaiah Crowell
Here’s the area where you have third-down backs who’ll produce, but not offer massive upside without injury, along with a few running backs who might wind up being their team’s starter. Williams, Hyde, and Anderson are all slated to have decent roles, but it could change sooner rather than later. Chubb might be a tier too high, but knowing how inefficient Hyde was in 2017, it’s hard to say that he’ll hold onto the starting job. Jones falls into the same territory, though he really hurt his chances to start by getting suspended for the first two games of the season. Lucky for him, Williams will have to face the Bears and Vikings, two rock-solid run defenses. Johnson and Cohen are fighting to get more touches, though they’re clearly viewed as more change-of-pace guys. Thompson isn’t going to be fully healthy to start the year and is going to regress with his touchdowns, while Yeldon saw 41 targets in just 10 games last year, and that was with Chris Ivory on the roster. Both him and Bernard are likely to be flex-type options in PPR formats, but offer big upside should the starter go down. As for Powell, he’s battling Crowell this year instead of Matt Forte, yet finished as the RB29 in PPR formats last year. He’s not sexy, but he’ll score some fantasy points. He also started over Crowell in the preseason opener.
Tier Nine (Rounds 10-13)
Doug Martin
Ty Montgomery
Samaje Perine/Rob Kelley
Devontae Booker
Matt Breida
D’Onta Foreman
Latavius Murray
James White
This is the area of 5-10 touch per game backup running backs who are essentially handcuffs, though there are a few who could be more than that. Martin has been getting glowing reports out of camp and it’s rare to get a running back with multiple 1,400-yard seasons this late in drafts. The injury to Derrius Guice has opened a door for the Perine/Kelley combo, though they’re battling for the starting role. Whoever comes out on top will move into the tier above, but both should be valued similarly right now. Montgomery was the starting running back for the Packers at the start of last year, but they’re lacking passing-game weapons now more than ever. Booker and Breida could flirt with 10-12 touches per game, though they lack upside. Foreman is likely to start the year on the PUP list, so unless your league offers an I.R. spot, you’re best off looking elsewhere. Murray may have earned more of a role based on last year’s performance, but he’s most definitely behind Dalvin Cook. As for White, he’s just a lineup filler who could post RB2 numbers from time-to-time and might be leaned on a bit more with Julian Edelman suspended for the first four games.
The Remaining Running Backs
Once you get to this point in the draft, it’s all based on preference and how many running backs you typically draft. When you get outside the top 12 rounds, it’s typically handcuff-type running backs, though you should not be attempting to handcuff your starters at this time. You should, however, snag running backs who would walk into RB1/RB2 production should the starter go down. I’m talking about guys like Spencer Ware, Chris Carson, Rod Smith, and others. If you’d like to understand how to value backup running backs, here’s an article I did on just that.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
