Rookie running backs tend to be among the most polarizing players in fantasy football. This is especially the case of late with the incredibly high ceiling several recent rookie rushers have showcased, including Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Kareem Hunt.

It’s not surprising, then, to see that we’ve already looked at a pair of rookie running backs in our Fantasy Football Player Debate series. Today we’ll examine another, Broncos’ rookie rusher Royce Freeman. Two of our writers, Zak Hanshew and Marc Mathyk, face off in a debate over the outlook for Freeman in 2018.

Freeman is the RB25 in PPR leagues according to our consensus ADP.

Of the 82 experts that have submitted PPR rankings, 46 have Freeman as their RB22 or better, while the rest disagree with his current PPR ADP.

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MARC: The three best determining factors when evaluating how successful a running back will be in the NFL are athleticism, college production, and landing spot. Based on that criteria, Royce Freeman has an excellent chance to flourish. First off, let’s examine Freeman’s athletic tangibles. At the combine, he ran a 4.54 40-yard dash. This was by no means the quickest time but if you factor in his 6’0, 229-pound build, then Freeman’s 107.8 size-adjusted speed score places him in the 86^th-percentile, according to Player Profiler. Although he has below average burst, Freeman makes up for that with his agility. His 11.06 agility score (83^rd-percentile) is the sum of Freeman’s 20-Yard Short Shuttle time and 3-Cone Drill times. This number measures a player’s short area quickness and balance and correlates with an ability to avoid tackles and compile yards before contact. What this means overall is that Royce Freeman is a fast and elusive athlete having the requisite size to dominate at the running back position.

ZAK: I can agree with you that the three factors you mentioned are some of the best in determining an RB’s success in the NFL. It’s just a matter of determining which of those factors is the most important. A talented back can fail in the wrong situation, and an average back can excel given the right circumstances. I personally value situation or “landing spot” above all, but we can address that point later. Freeman’s size and adjusted speed score are impressive stats, and he is a quick and strong back with the size to be durable. I can’t debate that too much. What concerns me about Freeman’s size and athleticism is that his teammate, the incumbent Devontae Booker, is a similarly built (5’11, 219) and similarly skilled (99.5 adjusted speed score, 4.58 40) back who bench pressed more reps than Freeman. Booker’s NFL Combine prospect grade of 5.67 was just slightly higher than Freeman’s 5.63. Booker’s College Dominator score (measuring the percentage of team offense for which a player was responsible) of 40.1% easily bested Freeman’s score of 30.4%. Booker is coming into his third season, and he is familiar with the team and the offense. Freeman may be athletic with good size and speed, but he doesn’t possess freaky talent. He has not separated himself from the pack of rookies in this class, and he certainly hasn’t distanced himself from his backfield competitor.

MARC: The second indicator that helps predict a running back’s success is college production. Below is a table that includes Freeman and every running back that was drafted before him.

2018 ROOKIE RB’S: BEST THREE YEARS OF COLLEGE PRODUCTION

 
Freeman had the most rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns while maintaining a remarkable six yards per carry average. As a pass-catcher, Freeman had the third most receptions for the second most yards and the second most yards per reception. Overall, Freeman had the most all-purpose yards out of any running back drafted in the first three rounds including Saquon Barkley. Freeman was prolific in both facets as a rusher and receiver out of the backfield. He is built like a bell cow running back and has the college production to back it up.

ZAK: Freeman’s college numbers were very impressive. He looks more impressive than even Saquon Barkley in some categories that you mentioned, but that then begs the question – why was he drafted in the third round if his numbers were so incredible? Part of that can be explained by the system in which he played. Freeman was a standout at Oregon in a spread offense. The team utilized a lot of Run Pass Option (RPO), multiple receiver/TE sets, and plays that simply won’t be employed frequently in the NFL. Freeman played in a system that has produced a couple of current NFL RBs, De’Anthony Thomas and Kenjon Barner. Both backs had more YPC than Freeman in college, and both have had marginal NFL success, being used situationally for the most part. Although Case Keenum had great success in college at Houston running the spread offense, the Denver Broncos have been reluctant to employ the same play-calling. Denver is not a team known for running many spread offense plays or RPOs. College success can be an indicator of NFL performance, but the college and NFL games are different and some players can’t make the transition.

Finally, since we’re talking about Broncos RBs, Devontae Booker had 1,697 scrimmage yards per season in two years at Utah compared to 1,608 Scrimmage yards per season for Freeman at Oregon. Freeman, in his four years, caught 79 passes while Booker caught 80 in just two years. He’s still the more versatile back, and he will have a firm place in this offense, if not the starting gig. As I mentioned earlier, though, I think landing spot for a player is the most important predictor of success. I’d love to hear how Freeman has landed in a good situation in Denver…

MARC: The third factor is landing spot. This has been pointed out by my sparring partner to be perhaps the most important factor. Royce Freeman could not have landed on a better team. Denver finally picked up a competent quarterback in Case Keenum during the offseason. With C.J. Anderson departing for Carolina, the backfield in Denver only has Devontae Booker and De’Angelo Henderson. These two running backs are complimentary at best. In two seasons Booker has averaged 3.6 yards per carry and seems more comfortable as a third-down option averaging 30 receptions. De’Angelo Henderson, a sixth-round pick, failed to impress in his rookie season. Therefore, Freeman has an easy path towards being the de facto number one back for the Broncos. He’s the new shiny toy in Denver and if the first pregame has any indication of what Freeman can do, then he is on his way to being an elite talent in the NFL.

ZAK: Freeman comes into a less-than-ideal situation in Denver. It’s true that they have upgraded at QB, but the bar wasn’t set so high with Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian at the helm last year. Keenum’s presence obviously elevates the rest of the skill players on offense, and his abilities mean that the team should pass more than they did last season when they relied heavily on the run. Freeman is not set for a monster workload that he needs to finish with any kind of return on investment because the Broncos have not been a team committed to a workhorse in recent years. Over the last six seasons, an RB has received at least 50% of the team’s rushes in a single season only three times – Knowshon Moreno in 2013 with 57%, Ronnie Hillman in 2015 with 55%, and C.J. Anderson last season with 60%. In fact, the average line for Denver’s primarily ball-carrier over the last six seasons is 202-850-6 – not the type of production you expect from Freeman given his draft price. The average line for Denver’s secondary back is 118-496-3.5 – enough opportunity and production to limit the upside of Freeman even further.

Freeman’s ADP of RB25 comes with a fifth-round price tag and means you’ll have to take him over Dion Lewis and Marshawn Lynch, two backs with way more upside and proven track record. You’ll also have to sacrifice drafting Marvin Jones, Sammy Watkins, Michael Crabtree, and Greg Olsen. I’d gladly take all of these players ahead of Freeman because of their potential and upside. To add to Freeman’s overvaluing is the offensive line that will take the field in Mile High. Denver’s offensive line was bad last season, and it shows little sign of improving in 2018. The offensive line is ranked No. 28 by numberFire heading into the season – I don’t like that for a top-25 back.

MARC: In conclusion, Royce Freeman checks all of the boxes. He is very big, yet spry and athletic. He was uber-productive in college and landed in a great spot. His competition is less than average. The two backs he has to beat out for top dawg rushed for a combined 312 yards last year, less than a third of lead back, C.J. Anderson, who is now on another team. There is also no comparison between Anderson and Freeman in any category. Freeman is far more athletic and was much more prolific at Oregon. Freeman might sacrifice some of his receptions to Booker in 2018, but he is not in jeopardy of losing rushing touches to a player who averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year. It is going to be an exciting year for the Denver offense. They finally have a capable quarterback, a receiving corps that has a combination of experience and untapped youth, to go along with one of this year’s best rookie prospects. Freeman is going to tear it up this year and be a major cog in the Denver Broncos offensive wheel as they pursue a playoff spot in 2018. Don’t be surprised if Royce Freeman is in the conversation for offensive rookie of the year when it is all said and done.

ZAK: In conclusion, Freeman is an athletic back who was highly productive in college. His athleticism does not blow Devontae Booker out of the water, and his college production was inflated due to the offensive system in which he played. As for his place on the Broncos? I think he has been drafted to a team notorious for timeshares in the backfield, running behind a bottom-five O-line. His current ADP of RB25 is a steep investment for a player with so many glaring concerns. I’m not taking Freeman this year. And you shouldn’t either. As a responsible fantasy owner, you have an obvious choice – to avoid Royce.

Thanks again to Zak and Marc for taking part in this debate. Let us know what you expect from Royce Freeman in 2018 @FantasyPros.

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Marc Mathyk is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Marc, check out his archive and follow him @Masterjune70.

Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.