Fantasy Football Player Debate: Ronald Jones II

Rookie running backs have taken the league by storm in recent years. Looking to this year’s class, will we have another Alvin Kamara? Could it be Ronald Jones II? Two of our writers debate Jones’ outlook for the 2018 fantasy season.

Jones is the RB23 in PPR leagues according to our consensus ADP.

Of the 77 experts that have submitted PPR rankings, 18 have Jones as their RB23 or better, while the rest disagree with his current PPR ADP.

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ZAK: I love Ronald Jones II this year, and I’m taking him in drafts wherever I can get him. Currently being drafted as the RB23 at the end of the fifth round, this guy is a steal who could wildly exceed his ADP. After a successful college career at USC, the former Trojan comes into a great situation. Quarterback Jameis Winston is suspended three games, and the team may be looking to move on from him in the offseason. Tampa Bay will try to establish the run this year and improve its sputtering offense, which has ranked no better than 18th in points per game over the last five seasons. Jones II will have plenty of touches as TB has ranked inside the top-10 in rushing attempts per game twice in the last three seasons. RoJo is on track to be the starter after the exit of Doug Martin, and the competition for touches in this backfield is not scary at all.

MARC: Easy, tiger! Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Although it cannot be denied that Ro-Jo was a productive rusher at USC, he was a very one-dimensional running back. Sure, he amassed over 1,500 yards for an impressive 5.9 yards per carry in his final year. However, he proved that he was not all that versatile. He only had a total of 32 receptions during his three years in college. To put that into perspective, Saquon Barkley had 54 receptions in his final season. In fact, many football pundits are concerned that Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, and Nick Chubb cannot be all-purpose backs because they were not prolific receivers in college. However, all three of them caught more passes during their best year than Jones. Therefore, even if Jones is successful between the tackles, don’t expect him to be a three-down back.

ZAK: I’m not overly concerned about him becoming a three-down back. Clearly, his strength is in his rushing ability, notching a 6.1 YPC average for his USC career. He can do plenty of damage without catching a lot of balls. Thanks for calling me, tiger. That’s a perfect segway to former Tiger and productive 2017 rookie, Leonard Fournette. Fournette had only 41 receptions in his spectacular LSU career, but he was still able to catch 36 passes in his 13 NFL games last year while rushing for over one thousand yards and nine rushing TDs. While we’re doing player comparisons, let’s look at Frank Gore and Jordan Howard. Gore caught only 23 passes in his three years at the U, but he has amassed an incredible 14,026 rushing yards in the NFL while catching only 34 balls per year. He has been a valuable Fantasy commodity for years. JoHo, much like RoJo, was not a prolific pass-catcher in college. He caught only 24 passes in his college career. He has averaged over 1,200 yards rushing and nearly eight rushing TDs per season while catching 26 balls per year in his two NFL seasons. He finished as an RB1 in both years in Standard scoring leagues. An RB does not need to catch a lot of passes to be productive. College receiving stats don’t always translate to NFL production in that category either. Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Mark Ingram all averaged less than 22 receptions per season in college, and I’d be happy to have any of them on my team.

MARC: I’m am so glad that you mentioned Frank Gore, Jordan Howard, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Mark Ingram. Another concern I have for Ro-Jo is his size. The NFL game is much faster and intense than the college game. Ronald Jones is not built to be a bellcow back. He is only 205 pounds. Let’s take a look at the running backs you mention in the league:

Out of the guys you mentioned as well as rookies being drafted around the same round as Jones, he is clearly the smallest back, with the lowest BMI to go along with one of the worst size-adjusted speed scores. Therefore, he’s small, lacks durability (BMI) and isn’t all that fast. Ironically, Jones is built like a satellite back – the only problem is he isn’t known for his catching prowess.

ZAK: I appreciate the statistics and research, my friend. They’re very interesting, and you make some great points! But these stats are not all-telling. Ronald Jones II is a bit slender using BMI, but he’s not more than 12 pounds off of three of these players – Gore, Michel, and Ingram. His 40 time is better than five of these players, and his overall score listed is still higher than Ingram and Gore. Players with a lower BMI than Jones have found success in the NFL over the years – Curtis Martin, Eric Dickerson, and Tony Dorsett among them – so I’m not overly concerned with his weight.

A player comparison I’d like to look at is RoJo’s predecessor, Doug Martin. Martin came out of Boise State after red-shirting his first season and playing four more years. He finished with 3,431 yards rushing on 5.6 YPC while Jones II finished with 3,619 yards rushing on 6.1 YPC. Those rushing numbers are very similar. Jones II averaged just under 11 receptions per season, and Martin averaged just under 17 per season – certainly not a cavernous difference. Martin caught 49 passes his rookie year, showing that a college player without a lot of receptions could develop his receiving skills after entering the NFL. Jones II scored 42 TDs in three seasons, and Martin scored 47 in four seasons. The two had similar college careers and draft spots. Martin was taken 31st, and Jones II was taken 38th showing the Bucs’ planned commitment to the run game. Martin’s rookie season was one for the ages, and he finished with 1,454 yards rushing, 472 yards receiving, and 12 total TDs. As previously mentioned, TB is without Jameis Winston for Weeks 1-3, and the team seems to be noncommittal on his future. They should lean on the run game. In the past three seasons, the Bucs are 11-3 when any RB on the team carries at least 20 times in a game. In those games, the Bucs scored an average of 24 PPG, almost a field goal more than their three-year average of 21.5 PPG from 2015-2017. The other RBs on the team include unspectacular vets Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers and pass-catching specialist Charles Sims. None of them will push Jones II for carries.

In conclusion, Ronald Jones II is primed for a big rookie season and will make his presence felt in the NFL. His size and pass-catching abilities will be minimal concerns overshadowed by his skill as a pure-rusher. He has RB1 potential and will be a great value at his current price. Draft Ronald Jones II and get the mojo (or RoJo) rising!

MARC: Although he is closer in weight to Frank Gore, Mark Ingram and Sony Michel, it’s the other players I am higher on — not to mention Le’Veon Bell (6’1″, 230-pounds), David Johnson (6’1″, 224-pounds), and Saquon Barkley (6’0″, 233-pounds). Not only size but the players with a higher BMI correlates to sturdiness and durability. I question the over-usage of Jones due to his slight build and BMI for a running back. I question his speed for his size. I question his ability to catch out of the backfield.

I think you are exaggerating the Bucs being without Winston for the first three games of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. In fact last year he played four and a half games in relief of the injured Winston. He threw seven touchdowns and only three interceptions, and also managed to have a better win percentage than Winston, ending up 2-2 as the Buc’s starter, compared to Winston, who was just 3-9. Also, Tampa Bay had 25.8 rushing attempts per game with Fitzpatrick compared to 23.8 with Winston as starters. Not a significant difference to all of a sudden jump on the Ro-Jo bandwagon.

I also think that comparing Doug Martin to Ronald Jones is like apples to oranges. They are not built similarly at all – Martin is shorter (5’9″) and much bulkier (223). Also if we were to compare college production then Ito Smith should have been a first-round pick, since his college resume is very similar to Saquon Barkley‘s. Regarding your point on the rest of the unspectacular running backs currently on the Buc’s roster, remember Barber averaged a full yard more per carry than Martin did. Barber might not be sexy but he is reliable and will push Jones for carries. I don’t think Dirk Koetter will have any reservation using Barber, especially if Jones does not start off the season on fire. Barber is built like a bell cow back and will vulture goal-line opportunities from Jones.

As for your statistic regarding Tampa Bay’s great win-loss record when a running back rushes for 20 times or more, remember this – they only did this 14 times out of 48 games. Teams run more when they have leads. The Bucs, who are predicted to win 6.5 games this season are not going to be in position this year where they can simply run the ball as much as they want due to game script.

In summation, Jones was an electric rusher at USC. However, the NFL is a different beast. His size and lack a versatility are his two biggest question marks. Although he is known as a “violent runner,” those are the types of running backs often found on the injury report sooner or later. Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers are both entering their third season on the team so they know the ins and outs of the Tampa Bay offense and might not carry the draft capital but are more reliable and thus underrated. Jones will also play on a team most likely forced throw the ball due to game script and therefore won’t get the same opportunity to rush the ball 20 times a game. Jones might be tempting at RB23 but he isn’t a sure thing by any stretch. I would rather take a chance on another rookie, Royce Freeman. He has the build, the college resume, and the requisite athleticism to be a dominant back.

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Thanks again to Zak and Marc for their participation. Share with them your thoughts on Jones, and let us know what you think @FantasyPros.

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Marc Mathyk is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Marc, check out his archive and follow him @Masterjune70.

Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.