Fantasy Football Player Debate: Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon was a disappointment overall in his rookie season, but he showed promising flashes. Will he be able to deliver on that promise and athletic ability in 2018? Two of our writers, Geoff Lambert and Shane Davies, debate Mixon’s current ADP, each taking a different side to the debate.

Mixon is the RB14 in PPR leagues according to our consensus ADP.

Of the 91 experts that have submitted PPR rankings, 27 have Mixon as their RB14 or better, while the rest disagree with his current PPR ADP.

Play on the best fantasy football platform. Get the free Sleeper app

Shane: There are a plethora of reasons for why I am drafting Joe Mixon in front of his current ADP. His offensive line is much improved from last season. The Bengals traded for one of the better left tackles in the NFL in Cordy Glenn and then drafted arguably the best center in the draft in the first round.

And on top of the offensive line improvements, Jeremy Hill is no longer in Cincinnati to poach goal-line touchdowns from Mixon. He should be a three-down running back in 2018. He likely won’t see any loaded boxes with A.J. Green and John Ross healthy on the outside so he should have plenty of room to run.

Geoff: I was okay with most of your points on Mixon until you mentioned John Ross as a reason to not load the box. John Ross is so irrelevant that when I Googled him to look up his stats, the first result was for John Ross Bowie, the actor famous for playing Barry Kripke on the Big Bang Theory. Of course, if I used his stats instead of John Ross the WR, it would have been virtually identical as neither has caught a single NFL pass and the NFL Ross only has 1.2 more fantasy points than does the actor, but I digress.

This argument is about Joe Mixon who averaged a mere 3.5 yards per carry in 2017, behind guys like Kerwynn Williams and Buck Allen. You are right, the Bengals improved their offensive line in the offseason, the 28th ranked offensive line per PPF is projected this year as the 24th ranked offensive line per PFF. An improvement? Yes. Good? No.

Jeremy Hill is gone, in that you are correct, but to claim that as a reason Mixon will get more carries in 2018? Hill only had 37 carries for 117 yards last season and he didn’t score a single touchdown. James Conner had 32 carries for 144 yards in 2017 and was completely irrelevant as Le’Veon Bell‘s backup before an injury. Hill didn’t take anything away from Mixon last season, he was terrible on his own. However, there was a running back that did take away from Mixon — and he is still on the team.

With 105 carries for 458 yards and two TDS, as well as 43 receptions on 60 targets and another two TDs, Giovani Bernard is not going to fade away into the night to allow Mixon to do his thing, especially in what amounts to a contract year for Bernard as he will likely be a cap casualty next offseason. Bernard will be the passing-down back and will still get carries in this offense. The Bengals have employed a two-running-back system for years, and I don’t see that changing as they have already drafted Bernard’s replacement for next season, rookie RB Mark Walton.

Shane: I was referring more to A.J. Green than Ross, but I think defenses will at least be aware of Ross’s presence on the field. After all, he’s one of the fastest players in the history of the NFL and a first-round pick, albeit he didn’t prove anything in his rookie season.

The PFF rankings do not concern me. They are merely preseason projections and chemistry between an offensive line unit can be very fluid at the professional level.

And I’m not as concerned about Bernard’s presence as you are. He barely touched the ball (6.8 touches per game) when Mixon was finally featured as the lead back towards the second half of the season, and Mixon is a more talented pass-catching running back than Bernard anyways. I think Marvin Lewis and the rest of the Bengals coaching staff will have a hard time taking someone as talented at Mixon off the field on third downs when he performs so well in that facet of the game.

Geoff: You say you aren’t worried about Bernard because of his lack of involvement during the second half of the season, but 40 of Bernard’s 60 targets came after Week 9 with 29 targets over the last four games, I would hardly call that “less involved.”

Mixon had six games in 2017 in which he carried the ball 15 or more times, in those six games he had 111 carries for 401 yards – that’s only 3.6 yards per carry – not exactly “lead back” production. Mixon also had 13 targets in those six games as the “lead back” which was still less than Bernard’s 20 targets in the same six games.

Mixon will be a viable fantasy running back in 2018, but at his current ADP as a late second to early third-round pick is too rich for me.

—

Thanks again to Shane and Geoff for their participation. Share with them your thoughts on Mixon, and let us know what you think @FantasyPros.

Fantasy Football Player Debate: Julio Jones
Fantasy Football Player Debate: Tyreek Hill

Giveaway: Win a signed Le’Veon Bell jersey

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS