After a year plagued by early-round disappointments, wide receivers are falling down the draft board further than ever before. Is this right, or is this the way it should’ve been all along and drafters have simply been overvaluing the wide receiver position?
Looking over the data from the last five years, there’s been just two wide receivers who have topped 285 points in a half-PPR setting, Antonio Brown (who did it twice) and Julio Jones, while there have been eight running backs (both Le’Veon Bell and Matt Forte hit that number twice) to achieve that feat. Granted, that’s only elite seasons, but it kind of gives you the idea that running backs should outweigh wide receivers in the first round, especially when you consider the lack of true three-down running backs.
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With that being said, wide receivers should not be neglected just because the running back position looks dire after the first dozen running backs come off the board. There’s no reason that the No. 8 wide receiver should be coming off the board in the third-round, like I’ve seen in some drafts. So instead of relying on ADP (average draft position), I’m going to give you tiers of wide receivers, and when you should be snagging them in your upcoming draft. Keep in mind that this is based on a 0.5 PPR setting, as it’s the best medium in between standard and PPR formats.
If you’d like to see the other positional tier lists, here are the links:
Quarterback Primer
Running Back Primer
Tight End Primer
Tier One (Round 1)
He’s got a tier all to himself, which is quite rare at the wide receiver position, but the fact that he’s been a WR2 or better in 57-of-77 games (74 percent) over the last five years is quite ridiculous. To put that in context, there were just three wide receivers to do that in 2017 alone, while Brown has done it over five years. He’s the first wide receiver off the board and it’s not all that close.
Tier Two (Round 1)
You can interchange these two however you choose, though the only concern for Beckham (and the reason I have him below Jones) is due to the talent around him, as his production before was coming due to a lack of others on the roster. He’s returning to an offense with a third-year Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and Saquon Barkley. There’s only so many players who can have top-tier production with that much talent on the roster, though I think Beckham is one of them.
Tier Three (Round 2)
Michael Thomas
Keenan Allen
DeAndre Hopkins
Davante Adams
A.J. Green
There will be a lot of people who disagree with putting Hopkins in this tier, and that’s fine, but his production even last year when Deshaun Watson threw a touchdown at a historic 9.5 percent, Hopkins’ totals would have ranked as the No. 7 wide receiver in 2015, which shows just how down of a year the wide receivers had in 2017. I still believe Hopkins could be drafted as a top-five wide receiver, but building in the regression from Watson and the improved defense that will lead to less pass attempts, it’s unlikely he matches last year’s numbers. Thomas and Allen are going to see targets galore, and contrary to Hopkins both of them are in for some positive touchdown regression. Meanwhile, Adams can lead the league in touchdowns as Aaron Rodgers‘ No. 1 target, and Green has shown the ability to finish top-8 seemingly every single year, though he may not have No. 1 upside.
Tier Four (Rounds 2-3)
This tier is the last of the clear-cut No. 1 wide receivers, even if they did disappoint a bit last year. They’ve shown their ability to finish as WR1s multiple times, though their floor is lower than the top-eight receivers. Baldwin’s knee injury that’s been keeping him out of training camp sounds like it could be an MCL sprain that they’re being cautious with, so knowing him and Russell Wilson have plenty of rapport, I’m not as worried, but it’s enough to knock him into the third-round. With Evans, it hurts that Jameis Winston was suspended for the first three games, and it doesn’t help that Chris Godwin is gaining steam in the offense, though Evans is still going to be a target hog.
Tier Five (Rounds 3-4)
Stefon Diggs
T.Y. Hilton
Amari Cooper
Tyreek Hill
Here’s the “don’t be surprised if they finish as WR1” tier. Diggs has been among my favorites for a long time and has a game similar to Antonio Brown‘s, though he’s never going to see that target share with Adam Thielen on the field. Hilton is likely to finish the year as a WR1, but the way there will be a bumpy road. As I pointed out in the Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between series, he’s only been a WR2 or better in 42.6 percent of his career games. Cooper has a ceiling as high as anyone’s, but he’s yet to put it all together for a full season. Can Jon Gruden pull it out of him? Hill is similar to Hilton in the fact that he may sneak into the top-12 wide receivers at season’s end, but it’s not going to be smooth enough to consider him a WR1.
Tier Six (Round 4)
Demaryius Thomas
Larry Fitzgerald
Allen Robinson
Adam Thielen
This is the “should be safe” tier of wide receivers, though I have my question marks about Thielen, especially when you consider how much I believe in Diggs. Despite seeing a very-high 143 targets last year, Thielen finished as a WR3 or better just 56.3 percent of the time. I’m expecting Cousins’ efficiency to make up for some of the lost targets. Thomas is one of the safest WR2s in fantasy football, though he won’t win you a league. Same can be said about Fitzgerald, who is in a new system with a new quarterback. Robinson also has a new quarterback and coordinator, though both are upgrades over his former team. Coming off an ACL injury doesn’t scare me, but the fact that the Bears added so many playmakers might, as it’s unlikely he sees 140 targets.
Tier Seven (Round 5)
Golden Tate
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Brandin Cooks
This is likely the “underappreciated” tier of receivers, as Tate is continually finishing as a top-28 wide receiver in each of the last five seasons, including a WR15 finish in 2017. The increased usage of Kenny Golladay will affect Marvin Jones more than it will him. Smith-Schuster was just 55th in targets per game last year, but finished as a top-24 wide receiver. Even though his efficiency will go down, he should see at least 15-25 more targets in year-two. Sure, Cooks has finished as a top-15 wide receiver in each of the last three seasons, but he did that with Drew Brees and Tom Brady. I’m not saying that Jared Goff didn’t play solid last year, but it’s a downgrade at quarterback while the talent around him increased by quite a bit as well.
Tier Eight (Rounds 5-6)
Chris Hogan
Marvin Jones
Michael Crabtree
Jarvis Landry
There are some heavy touchdown scorers in this tier, where if they let you down in the red zone, it’s not likely to be a very successful week. Hogan is the No. 1 wide receiver for Tom Brady over the first four weeks and might be even when the 32-year-old Julian Edelman returns. Jones was a stud last year and dominated even some of the toughest competition, but how much of an impact will Kenny Golladay have on his target totals? Crabtree is traditional dominant in the red zone, but Joe Flacco hasn’t been throughout his career, throwing more than 22 touchdowns just twice. Landry is moving up draft boards, as the wide receiver room crashes around him. Josh Gordon hasn’t rejoined the team yet, Corey Coleman was traded away, and Antonio Callaway was reportedly cited for marijuana and a suspended license.
Tier Nine (Rounds 6-7)
Josh Gordon
Corey Davis
Alshon Jeffery
Sammy Watkins
The “pure upside” tier of wide receivers, as I believe all these guys have a shot to finish as top-12 options if things go their way, though you don’t have to draft them there. Gordon has tremendous upside, but is also the most expensive of this tier as there’s always at least one “believer” in the draft room. Davis needs to stay on the field and he’ll be the Titans No. 1 wide receiver. Knowing that I’ve compared his skill-set to Brandon Marshall should get you excited about him. Jeffery finished as a WR2 last year, but needed eight touchdowns to do it. Both he and teammate Nelson Agholor were the only two wide receivers to finish inside the top-28 with less than 800 receiving yards. Jeffery is also reportedly a candidate for the PUP list, which would knock him out for the first six games. Watkins is another underappreciated talent who essentially had three weeks to learn an entire offense when he was traded to the Rams last year. He’s got to learn another offense, but Andy Reid has said he’s impressed with how much they’re able to move him around the formation.
Tier 10 (Rounds 7-8)
Jamison Crowder
Randall Cobb
Robert Woods
Cooper Kupp
Pierre Garcon
Julian Edelman
Here’s the possession wide receivers who fit well into your WR3 slot, though you shouldn’t expect any of them to lead you to a fantasy title. Crowder is going to be loved by Alex Smith, as he creates separation with ease, but they still have Josh Doctson, Paul Richardson, Jordan Reed, and Chris Thompson available. Cobb could be one of the surprises in 2018, as only he and Davante Adams have great rapport with Aaron Rodgers, which goes a long way. He’s scored eight or more touchdowns twice, so he could sneak into the top-20 receivers this year. Woods might regress a bit with Brandin Cooks added to the fold, though Kupp’s role should be relatively safe. Kupp saw 23 red zone targets last year, while no other Rams wideout saw more than 10. While most loved Garcon last year, he’s returning to a team with a crowded pass-catching corps, and he’s now 32 years old. I wouldn’t draft Edelman here, but this is where you’d need to select him in order to roster him.
Tier 11 (Rounds 7-9)
Robby Anderson
Marquise Goodwin
Devante Parker
Sterling Shepard
Emmanuel Sanders
Devin Funchess
Nelson Agholor
Marqise Lee
There are a lot of guys I’d take in this tier over the one above, hence the reason for the similar round selection. For instance, I’d rather take the upside of Goodwin over someone like Pierre Garcon. The rapport that he and Jimmy Garoppolo showed last year has continued into this year’s training camp. There are a lot of people who’ve given up on Parker, though I’m not one of them. The injury to his finger isn’t ideal, but I’m fine taking him in this range. He’s a lock for 100-plus targets and the talent has never been the issue, but rather a consistent flow of targets. With Landry gone, expect him to be a WR3, at worst. Anderson is returning to a team that signed Terrelle Pryor and gets Quincy Enunwa back, so he may be a bit more sporadic in his production. You also have to worry about a potential suspension for him. Shepard is one of my favorite upside plays in the late rounds, as he’ll have a role in Pat Shurmur’s slot-heavy offense. Sanders is a favorite of a lot of analysts, but he’s 31 years old and hasn’t done much of anything the last two years despite seeing great volume. Sure, the quarterback situation is better, but so is the talent around him. Funchess is a bust for me this year, which is the exact opposite stance I took on him last year as a great sleeper. Don’t pay for him this year with Greg Olsen returning and D.J. Moore added in the draft. Agholor has gotten better seemingly every year but needs to be more consistent to be drafted higher. Lee posted what was almost the exact same stats as Alshon Jeffery last year, but is being drafted 80 picks later, according to ADP. He’s one of the more undervalued players in drafts this year.
Tier 12 (Rounds 9-11)
Kenny Stills
Jordy Nelson
Kelvin Benjamin
Josh Doctson
Calvin Ridley
Anthony Miller
Mohamed Sanu
Rishard Matthews
Mike Williams
Will Fuller
Allen Hurns
There are a lot of wide receivers in this group who are playing second-fiddle to the No. 1 on their team, while there are others who it’s tough to trust, even if they are the No. 1 wide receiver on their team. For instance, Benjamin and Hurns are playing on bad offenses and have two young wide receivers below them on the depth chart for now, but it could flip by season’s end. Stills, Ridley, Matthews, and Fuller are in similar spots where they’ll get you some week-winning performances, but they should not be relied on each and every week. Nelson is now 33 years old, so I’m not expecting him to suddenly be better without Aaron Rodgers. He’ll be used, but I think WR3/4 production is the absolute ceiling. Doctson is kind of the No. 1 in his offense, but his new quarterback doesn’t like to throw jump balls, which is the thing Doctson kind of excels at. Miller is going to be a stud in this league and might outperform this tier, but expectations should be tempered with rookie wide receivers. Sanu is a high-floor option that has been overlooked in early drafts. Williams could wind up with eight-plus touchdowns and I wouldn’t be shocked. He’s got real breakout potential, though it’d likely take a Keenan Allen injury for him to sneak into the top-20.
Tier 13 (Rounds 12 and on)
John Ross
Kenny Golladay
DeSean Jackson
Ryan Grant
Geronimo Allison
D.J. Moore
Michael Gallup
Paul Richardson
Chris Godwin
James Washington
Tyler Lockett
Cameron Meredith
Ted Ginn
Quincy Enunwa
John Brown
Keelan Cole
Taywan Taylor
Dante Pettis
Let’s be real, ADP doesn’t matter in this part of drafts. Seriously, take the players you want on your team that you believe present the most upside. I urge you not to draft boring players in this area. This is where you take a shot on a player who could become an every-week fantasy starter. These are some of the players I’m looking at late in drafts, though I’d like to highlight a few names. Ross is a legit NFL wide receiver and not just a speed guy. Think T.Y. Hilton. If Allison wins the No. 3 wide receiver job, I’m moving him up a tier, as he’ll have value. As long as Meredith gets onto the field for some preseason work, I’m down with adding Drew Brees‘ primary slot receiver. Talent has never been the issue with Brown, and his speed aligns with Joe Flacco‘s big arm. If he can stay healthy, he could have impact in 2018.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
