As I’m preparing for my fantasy drafts, I’m often tempted to change my opinion about players based on qualitative information — a move to a new team, a new coach or role in the offense, age or health concerns, and sometimes even positive or negative training camp reports. But at the end of the day, fantasy football is a numbers game, so before wildly moving players up and down our rankings, it’s worth thinking about how all that information translates into cold, hard statistics. That’s precisely what I’ll attempt to do in this column. Our friends here at FantasyPros have helpfully compiled current player projections from five major fantasy sites — CBS Sports, numberFire, NFL.com, ESPN, and FFToday — to produce the consensus projections for every player you’ll consider selecting on draft day.
Today, I’ll make a case for some WRs who will go over or under their consensus projections. Think of it as another way of looking at some players to target (the “Overs”) and shy away from (the “Unders”).
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Bet the Over
Davante Adams (GB)
Consensus Projections: 84.8 Receptions, 1,068.0 Yards, 9.0 Touchdowns
With Jordy Nelson now in Oakland, Adams enters 2018 as the clear number one receiver for Aaron Rodgers. Even with Rodgers missing half of 2017, Adams averaged five catches and 62.7 yards per game over the last two seasons, which works out to 80 receptions and 1,003 yards over a full 16-game slate. In other words, the consensus projections are hardly expecting a major spike from his past production, despite much-improved circumstances. Give me the over.
This is an even easier call when it comes to Adams’ touchdown projection. He has hauled in 22 touchdowns in 30 games over the last two years, the most of any player in the NFL. The Packers did bring in Jimmy Graham, who projects to be heavily targeted in the red zone, but keep in mind that they need to make up for the 20 TDs that Nelson caught over the last two seasons. Randall Cobb is not a red zone threat and may struggle to stay healthy, while the rest of the Packers’ wide receiver corps is entirely unproven. Nine projected TDs is no small number, but with Rodgers healthy and ready to pepper Adams with red zone targets, it would be a surprise if Adams doesn’t again reach double-digit scores.
T.Y. Hilton (IND)
Consensus Projections: 72.3 Receptions, 1,067.3 Yards, 6.3 Touchdowns
When we last saw a healthy Andrew Luck in 2016, Hilton was leading the entire NFL with 1,448 receiving yards. The previous time Luck played at least 15 games, back in 2014, Hilton finished with 1,345 receiving yards. Are you sensing a pattern here?
Luck looks to be back to full health, and if he stays that way throughout the 2018 season, Hilton is a virtual lock to surpass 1,100 receiving yards. He should be good for at least 80 catches, too. The one projection I don’t see Hilton blowing past is the touchdowns. He’s scored somewhere between four and seven touchdowns in every season of his career, so there’s no reason to expect that to suddenly change now, Luck or no Luck.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI)
Consensus Projections: 96.6 Receptions, 1,009.3 Yards, 5.5 Touchdowns
Ok, I get it. Fitzgerald is old (he’ll be 35 by Week 1). But he’s also surpassed these projections for catches, yards, and touchdowns for three straight seasons. Do you want to bet against him doing it again this year?
It’s fair to point out that the Cardinals have some questions at quarterback this season, but even if Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen both see the field, they should be able to at least match the performances of last year’s uninspiring trio of Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert, and Drew Stanton. Plus, when teams have mediocre or unproven quarterbacks, they have even more reason to lean heavily on one of the greatest wide receivers of all time. With only rookie Christian Kirk, second-year pro Chad Williams, and journeyman Brice Butler surrounding him in the WR corps, Fitzgerald should again be a target hog in the desert. The only way he doesn’t meet these projections is if Father Time finally catches up to him, but until we see him slow down, we should expect Fitzgerald to continue producing at a high level.
Bet the Under
Adam Thielen (MIN)
Consensus Projections: 81.8 Receptions, 1,073.8 Yards, 5.6 Touchdowns
At first glance, 1,074 yards doesn’t seem too outlandish for a guy who totaled 1,276 yards just last year. But consider that Thielen’s receiving yardage projection is behind only Antonio Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Keenan Allen, Michael Thomas, A.J. Green, and Mike Evans at the position — and ahead of guys like Davante Adams, Hilton, Doug Baldwin, Tyreek Hill, and Fitzgerald. Now consider that the Vikings have a new quarterback (Kirk Cousins) and a new offensive coordinator (John DeFilippo), who have both been talking up the “superstar” potential of Stefon Diggs, who just signed a massive new contract with the team.
It is highly unlikely that both Thielen and Diggs live up to their draft day price, considering both are being taken among the top-13 WRs in both standard and PPR leagues. I can’t tell you with great certainty which Vikings WR will be the one to flop, so the best course of action may be to avoid both of them. But if I had to choose one to underperform, it would be the one that the team seems less invested in featuring — and that’s Thielen.
Josh Gordon (CLE)
Consensus Projections: 64.2 Receptions, 975.5 Yards, 5.8 Touchdowns
Look, I like Gordon. I’m rooting for the guy. He could blow past all of these projections if he remains focused and on the field, and the catch and TD projections seem to adequately factor in the risk involved in his profile. But 975.5 receiving yards feels like a bold expectation for a player who has surpassed that figure only once in his career — way back in 2013.
Gordon has played in a total of five games over the last three years, so missing practice time is no small matter for him. His decision to report late to training camp may be what’s best for him and the team in the long run, but it puts him behind the eight ball for 2018. While Gordon was gone, Jarvis Landry established himself as the Browns’ number one receiving option, while Antonio Callaway, David Njoku, and Rashard Higgins all showed they are capable secondary options if called upon. To approach a 1,000-yard season, Gordon is going to need to quickly build a rapport with not one, but two quarterbacks, given the strong likelihood that both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield see the field this season. He’s never played a down with either QB, so the lack of practice reps means it could be several games into the regular season before he begins to develop rhythm and timing with the guys throwing him the football.
Finally, it must be said that there’s also the possibility that Gordon misses more games this season, in which case this yardage projection would become even harder to reach. Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, but given Gordon’s track record, that risk factor simply can’t be ignored.
Pierre Garcon (SF)
Consensus Projections: 69.2 Receptions, 877.0 Yards, 4.0 Touchdowns
Word out of 49ers training camp is that Marquise Goodwin will be Jimmy Garoppolo‘s top target this season, not Garcon. If that’s the case, it’s highly unlikely that Garcon reaches 877 receiving yards. Only four teams in the NFL had two players with at least 877 receiving yards last season: Detroit, Kansas City, New England, and Pittsburgh. If you only count wide receivers, it was just the Lions and Steelers.
Meanwhile, 13 teams didn’t have any players with 877 or more receiving yards, and Garcon himself has surpassed that mark in just three of his nine NFL seasons. I like to think of myself as pretty high on Garoppolo by industry standards, but expecting him to produce two 900-yard receivers is a bit too much to ask. Look for him to get his new top target Goodwin there, but not Garcon.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
