Tyreek Hill Isn’t Worth the Cost of Admission (2018 Fantasy Football)

One of the most intriguing players in all of fantasy football is none other than Tyreek Hill. Similar to his teammate Sammy Watkins, there’s no in-between with him among fantasy footballers. There are those who look at year-end totals and use it to predict year-over-year success, while there are others who expect regression to the mean. We’re here to find out what’s the most likely of scenarios with Hill.

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EFFICIENCY OUT OF THE ORDINARY

There’s no way to escape it, Hill has been one of the most efficient wide receivers in the league over the last two years. In that time, he’s seen 188 targets that have amounted to 302.2 standard fantasy points, which adds up to 1.61 fantasy points per target. To give you an idea as to how ridiculous this is, Antonio Brown has averaged 1.30 points per target over the last two seasons. Over the last five years, there has been just three wide receivers who’ve averaged more than 1.60 fantasy points per target while seeing a minimum of 100 targets. Doug Baldwin (2015), Dez Bryant (2014), and Demaryius Thomas (2013).

What did those players have in common? Each of them scored at least 14 touchdowns in those seasons. Raise your hand if you think Hill is going to score 14 touchdowns in 2018. Now put down your hand, liar. Hill is explosive, but believe it or not, he defied odds last year with his seven touchdowns. Why? Because he saw just four red-zone targets all season. Each and every touchdown he scored came from outside the red-zone, something that will not continue for any player, not just Hill. When followers/readers think that I’m ragging on Hill, they assume that I’m simply against him. Look guys, I’m not against any player, I just want to give you the best advice I can on what is the most likely of scenarios.

Before we go any further, you have to admit to yourself that Hill cannot sustain the efficiency he’s had up to this point. Unless you think Hill is (or will be) the best wide receiver of all-time, that is. But let’s compromise. Of the wide receivers who’ve seen at least 100 targets over the last five years, let’s take the top-five (best of the best) from each season and average them out. The average would come out to 1.47 points per target, which even if applied to his target total in 2017 (105), would’ve dropped him from the No. 4 wide receiver down to the No. 8 wide receiver. He’s currently being drafted as the No. 9 wide receiver according to early ADP. Side note: Sammy Watkins didn’t quite reach the 100-target threshold in 2015, but with his 96 targets, he averaged 1.65 fantasy points per target, so it’d be extremely hard for you to use the argument that Hill is much more efficient.

ANDY REID KNOWS BEST

Prior to last season, you never heard anyone complaining about Reid’s effect on fantasy players, but once the Chiefs started losing games, he was the scapegoat. There’s no arguing how he’s run his offenses during his 18 years in the league, as he’s produced 13 different top-12 scoring teams with just two of them outside the top-18 (1999, 2012). It’s fair to say that he’s efficient in his ways, and has used Hill to the maximum efficiency, so why change, right? Let’s take a look at target distribution in his offenses over the years he’s been with the Chiefs.

Now there is a big change that’ll affect the numbers, as second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes will take over for Alex Smith. While some have said that this is a great thing for Hill because Mahomes has a cannon for an arm, you cannot say that he’ll be better than Smith was last year, as he led the NFL in deep-ball passing (1,344 yards, closest was 1,136) and deep-ball QB Rating (131.4, closest was 111.6). Most don’t realize that Smith should’ve received MVP consideration for his performance last year. You cannot say that Mahomes is an upgrade over 2017 Smith, no matter how good you think Mahomes can be in his first year as a starter. Before you tell me that it was a career-year for Smith, I’m aware, but it was also a career-year for Hill with that quarterback, so they cancel each other out.

Looking at the chart above, you can see that wide receivers haven’t generated more than 55.1 percent of the targets, which is a problem when you consider the Chiefs paid Sammy Watkins $48 million over three years, with $30 million guaranteed. That is the fourth-highest paid wide receiver in the NFL. You don’t give out that contract for a guy to be a “decoy.” So, now we have to figure out if Hill and Watkins can co-exist in Reid’s offense. Even if we were to project the Chiefs to jump into the top-10 in pass attempts, they’d be right around 570, which is still much more than Reid has called for in his time with the Chiefs. But still, I can see it, as the Chiefs defense took a major step back this offseason and won’t be keeping teams in check the way they used to. To expect more than that for what is essentially a rookie quarterback would be extremely generous, so let’s start there.

Even if we took the highest wide receiver percentage in target distribution, we’d be looking at roughly 313 wide receiver targets to go around, which is again, the high-end. We should anticipate anywhere from 295-310 targets for the wide receivers. Hill had 105 targets last year on a team that was running Demarcus Robinson out as their No. 2 wide receiver. He saw double-digit targets just once all season. He had just four red-zone targets. Albert Wilson had 12 red-zone targets in 13 games. Do you see where I’m going with this? Reid uses Hill differently than most top-tier wide receivers. Is it wrong? No, he finished with 1,183 yards last year. We know his efficiency has to dip, but is there room for an increase in targets?

I believe it’s fair to set Watkins’ baseline at 96 targets, as that averages out to roughly six targets per game. Again, they didn’t pay him to come in and be a decoy. His ceiling might be somewhere around 120, though I’m not sold that he’s getting that year-one in the offense. That does leave plenty of targets to go around, as there’d still be anywhere from 199-214 targets to go around. But here’s the issue with expecting Hill to reach that 110-plus mark… Of the 18 years that Reid has coached, there’ve been two top-24 wide receivers on one team just once (2010 – DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin), which means it’s unlikely that we see two wide receivers with 100-plus targets. Looking at last year as a measuring stick, there were just three teams who had two wide receivers with more than 96 targets. Who were the tight ends on those teams? Eric Ebron, Julius Thomas, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Not quite Travis Kelce, eh? That’s the issue with projecting a huge boost for the wide receivers, as Kelce isn’t going to lose his role/volume in the offense.

2018 OUTLOOK

Knowing what we know about Reid’s offense, the lack of wide receiver targets, and lack of multiple wide receivers being fantasy relevant, it’s almost as-if you need to plant your flag on one of Watkins or Hill in 2018 fantasy drafts. One of them costs you the No. 9 wide receiver pick in the third-round, while the other costs you the No. 29 wide receiver pick in the seventh-round. It’s very possible that Hill does, in fact, lead the wide receivers in targets, but for him to get 120-130 targets, you’d have to drop Watkins down the totem pole, which would pose the question – why did they feel the need to pay Watkins? Regardless of how you feel about the talent gap between Hill/Watkins, it doesn’t matter. What matters is how Reid feels the offense is best distributed and I believe it’d be foolish to expect more targets for Hill when Watkins was added and is a clear upgrade over what they had last year. But here’s the thing for those who still believe it’s Hill – even if he is the target leader, you’re drafting him at/or near his ceiling when you factor in his expected regression. The idea when drafting your fantasy team is to have equity with each of your picks outside the first-round. Of the 50 wide receivers who finished top-10 over the last five years, there were just five who did it with less than 120 targets. It’s not a guarantee that either player bests their ADP, but with Watkins, you are investing much less. My advice would be to draft Doug Baldwin over Hill, who is being drafted as the No. 13 wide receiver. My 2018 projection: 102 targets, 66 receptions, 917 yards, 6 touchdowns, 78 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.