In a simpler time, gauging a player’s fantasy scoring prowess was as easy as tracking how many yards and touchdowns they scored. Today’s metrics-driven game requires a lot more data. Efficiency reigns supreme in the current sports world, and fantasy football is no different.

Countless new metrics have been created to help separate which players are making the most out of each opportunity, but even that very word, opportunity, is open to interpretation. Some would say a touch is an opportunity, but for our purposes, fantasy points per opportunity will consist of carries plus pass routes ran. Quite literally, it’s every snap an offensive player could have produced fantasy points.

Our friends at Pro Football Focus are some of the best in the business of providing advanced data, and the fantasy points-per-opportunity metric is a great example of measuring true fantasy efficiency. Using PFF’s data, let’s see which players made the most out of every opportunity from the 2017 NFL season and what it means this year.

Note: Players ranked in PPR scoring

Practice fast mock drafts with our free Mock Draft Simulator

Running Backs

 
No surprise to see Alvin Kamara top another efficiency metric due to his insane, and likely unsustainable 1.45 PPR points-per-touch scoring rate. Only time will tell how Kamara responds to a bigger workload, which he is assured of commanding to open the season with Mark Ingram slated to miss the first four games. Kamara led all NFL players with 6.1 yards-per-carry and finished third among running backs with a healthy 10.2 yards-per-receptions. He’s a locked-in top-10 pick in any format.

Rex Burkhead produced almost 13 PPR points per game in his 10 contests and was quietly a reliable source of catches and touchdowns. The good news for Burkhead is that he re-signed with the Patriots and should continue to have a sizable role. The bad news is the addition of first-round selection Sony Michel could limit Burkhead’s touches. At the very least, Burkhead should retain his short-yardage role, and that assures that he’ll be an important fantasy contributor and an excellent RB3 target in the middle rounds.

Austin Ekeler overcame a slow start to score five touchdowns in a seven-game stretch before being neutralized by a hand injury. It’s doubtful that Ekeler will be able to repeat that kind of touchdown prowess and the addition of Northwestern rookie Justin Jackson could take a few reps away. Despite the solid showing on this list, Ekeler is little more than a change-of-pace option and handcuff for Melvin Gordon owners in deep leagues.

Anyone who bet on a Todd Gurley resurrection was handsomely rewarded with a season that paid huge dividends from any volume, production, or efficiency metric. Even though he rested in Week 17, Gurley still scored 19 touchdowns and produced 2,093 all-purpose yards. Gurley’s 0.59 fantasy PPO tied Mark Ingram for fourth among qualifying running backs but was achieved with 55 more touches. Gurley is worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in every fantasy draft this summer.

It will be interesting to see if the Titans use Dion Lewis in a role similar to how they used DeMarco Murray. Lewis was excellent for the Patriots, producing 0.92 fantasy points-per-touch while splitting carries. By paying Lewis $20 million, you can bet he’ll have a significant role for a club that now has Matt LaFluer as their play-caller.

Chris Thompson was a weekly PPR RB1 before breaking his leg in November. The Redskins then invested a second rounder on LSU’s Derrius Guice, which could limit Thompson’s opportunities as a runner, but likely won’t have much effect on his role in the passing game. Thompson produced 0.54 PPO and would have finished the season as the PPR RB8 if he had remained that effective for a full 16 games.

After being discarded by the Seahawks, who could have desperately used him in 2017, Alex Collins excelled for the Ravens, finishing the season as a top-20 PPR back. Collins produced 0.53 PPO which included a respectable 32 targets. Baltimore’s new receiving corps should help open up the offense quite a bit, which opens the door for Collins to be a solid weekly RB2.

Wide Receivers

 
The top-10 list of PPO WR leaders compares quite favorably to the overall scoring leaders, which is also topped by Antonio Brown. Along with leading all receivers in PPO, Brown also ranked first in receiving yards, points-per-target, and led the league with 0.60 points-per-target. Brown easily outpaced all the other wideouts in this study and has shown no signs of slowing down. The addition of second-rounder James Washington and the presence of sophomore Juju Smith-Schuster, who himself ranked sixth in the NFL with 0.47 PPO, only opens the door for Brown to continue to be peppered with targets.

DeAndre Hopkins led the league in targets, target share and receiving touchdowns last season, an impressive feat when you consider that a significant portion of that productivity came with Tom Savage and T.J. Yates under center. With Deshaun Watson considered a full go for training camp, Hopkins is primed for another big season, but counting on another 11.6 targets-per-game is probably unrealistic.

The only thing holding Julio Jones down is his baffling struggles in the red zone. Jones tied Hopkins for 11th in the NFL with 19 red-zone targets, but caught just five of those passes for 33 yards and a single touchdown. Jones is an elite talent and safe bet to finish among the top five in almost every significant fantasy category except touchdowns, where he hasn’t topped eight touchdowns since 2012. Jones is ultra talented and will get better in the red zone in his second season with Steve Sarkisian as the play-caller.

Michael Thomas also saw a decline in red zone catches, dropping from 13 receptions and seven touchdowns as a rookie to nine catches and five scores in 2017. The biggest culprit for that decline was the success of the Saints’ running game. The absence of Mark Ingram in September should result in Thomas seeing an increase in targets, making him a strong candidate to remain a top-five fantasy WR and solid bargain in the second round.

Tyreek Hill is a polarizing talent who has been an incredibly efficient scorer. The bulk of that production came in the form of Alex Smith’s excellent showing on deep balls, which perfectly utilized Hill’s elite-level speed. Hill was almost non-existent in the red zone, catching a single pass on just four targets all season. The addition of Sammy Watkins and transition to Patrick Mahomes‘ strong arm bodes well for Hill to remain a premier deep threat but that lack of touchdown upside makes him a somewhat volatile weekly WR1.

 
Michael Crabtree has the same PPO numbers as A.J. Green, Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Adam Thielen but can be drafted several rounds later. With three straight seasons of eight-plus scores, Crabtree has been a steady source of touchdowns and a positive return of investment. The move to Baltimore shouldn’t have much of an adverse effect on Crabtree’s WR1 status, making him an excellent WR2 target that regularly slips into the sixth round.

It’s tough to project Jarvis Landry to approach his gaudy target numbers in a Cleveland offense that will be led by Tyrod Taylor. After scoring a combined eight touchdowns form 2015-2016, Landry jumped up to nine scores last season, which played a big part in his 0.43 PPO showing. Overall, Landry ranked 88th in yards per target with a lowly 6.1. An expected reduction in red zone targets will make it difficult for Landry to be anywhere near as efficient in a Hue Jackson offense. He’ll still be a solid weekly PPR play, but Landry looks primed for a regression.

From a numbers standpoint, Robby Anderson looks like a potential breakout candidate. Anderson had a strong sophomore campaign and is set to enter the season as the Jets’ undisputed No. 1 wideout. The only problem is that Anderson had off-the-field incidents during the offseason that could keep him sidelined to open the 2018 season. He’s a solid WR2/3 target but comes with some risk.

Doug Baldwin dipped below 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015, but should be a solid bet to rebound. Jimmy Graham’s departure should open up a lot of red zone targets, and Seattle’s declining defense and makeshift offensive line should keep Russell Wilson and company a pass-first unit.

Larry Fitzgerald’s ADP is starting to recover as the prominence of early dynasty drafts likely skewed those deflated figures. A WR1 last season, Fitzgerald improved his numbers across the board in 2017, an unusual feat for a 34-year-old wide receiver. Arizona’s supporting cast is still a work in progress, so Fitzgerald looks like a solid candidate for another season of 150-plus targets, this time from ultra-accurate QB Sam Bradford under center.

Tight Ends

 
He didn’t get a lot of opportunities with just 28 targets, but Ricky Seals-Jones wouldn’t take no for an answer on the field from Weeks 11-15, catching 12 passes for 201 yards and three scores. Seals-Jones has a lot of sleeper appeal as the projected No. 1 tight end in an offense that will be led by one of the NFL’s most accurate passers in Bradford, but he’ll need to squeak past a potential suspension for an offseason arrest.

Rob Gronkowski still rises above the rest as the top tight end in the game, but the gap is shrinking as injuries and rumored turmoil within the team continue to mount. As it stands, Gronk is still an elite option with league-winning upside and is potentially available in the third round of most drafts. Gronkowski’s 0.53 PPO would have ranked fourth among wide receivers and seventh as a running back. Bet on at least one more season of top-level production from the 29-year-old veteran.

Trey Burton signed a four-year, $32 million contract with the Bears to play the Travis Kelce role in Matt Nagy’s new offense. Burton’s 0.52 PPO ranked second in the NFL among regular starters but came in only 30 targets behind Zach Ertz. Burton is firmly being drafted as a TE1 in early experts-led drafts, and that price isn’t likely to come down. While there was a lot to like with his limited sample size and Burton has a ton of potential in a fast-paced Bears offense, he’s a bit of a risk/reward pick.

The Lions released Eric Ebron, which opens the door for free-agent signee Luke Willson to potentially take over the team’s starting gig. Willson fared well in 2017, ranking fifth among all NFL tight ends with 2.6 points-per-touch. He only caught 15 passes splitting time with Jimmy Graham and Nick Vannett, but four went for touchdowns, and he doesn’t have a lot of established competition for playing time in front of him in Detroit. He’s a solid sleeper to nab late in drafts and has top-15 fantasy potential.

O.J. Howard was also tremendous with his limited opportunities, scoring six touchdowns and ranking seventh in PPO. While Howard will continue to split playing time with Cameron Brate, he was in the top 10 in PPR points per game. It’s rare for a rookie tight end to be a significant contributor and Howard’s role should only grow in his sophomore season.

Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS

Jody Smith is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jody, check out his archive and follow him @JodySmithNFL.