After the years that Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt just had, it’s easy to lose Joe Mixon in the shuffle. If you followed our podcast last year, Mixon was one of the most highly-debated players among experts we had on, with some willing to take him at the end of the second-round, while others (myself included) said that they wouldn’t consider him until the fifth- or sixth-round due to the three-headed monster in Cincinnati.
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The caveat to betting on Mixon last year was that the Bengals invested a second-round pick on a guy who many teams scratched off their draft boards. Not due to talent, because many said he was the best all-around talent at the position, but due to off-the-field issues. When you take someone who is so controversial, the only way to direct attention elsewhere is to put him on the field and let his play do the talking. Well, that didn’t happen until Jeremy Hill went down with a season-ending injury. But are they ready to give him the keys to the offense in year two?
GROWTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR
Unlike fellow rookie John Ross last year, Mixon gradually saw his playing time increase as the year went on. After playing just 38 combined snaps over the first two weeks, Mixon averaged 33.1 snaps per game from Week 3 through Week 12 (it’s no coincidence that offensive coordinator Ken Zampese was fired after Week 2, allowing Bill Lazor to up Mixon’s snaps). That wasn’t the only thing that increased as the year went on, though. His first 67 carries produced just 187 yards (2.79 YPC) and one touchdown, while his last 111 carries netted 439 yards (3.95 YPC) and three touchdowns. This is an extremely small sample size, but things were moving in the right direction as Mixon learned to play at the NFL level behind what was one of the worst offensive lines in the league (PFF graded them 26th in run-blocking).
Some want to point to his overall 3.5 yards per carry in 2017 and use it as an argument against him, but those same people are the ones who wrote off Le’Veon Bell after his rookie season when he averaged the same 3.5 yards per carry, though he did it with an even larger sample size (244 carries). I’m not one of those who says yards per carry doesn’t matter – it does – but over a length of time. If you have a running back who consistently averages sub-4.0 yards per carry, he won’t hang around in the NFL very long. Look no further than Mixon’s former teammate Jeremy Hill, who averaged 3.8 yards per carry or less for three straight season, and was forced to accept a one-year, $1.5 million contract, though he’s not guaranteed more than $150K.
WHY SHOULD YOU TRUST HIM NOW?
There were a lot of things that changed this offseason for the Bengals, but the biggest highlights were the Bengals trading for left tackle Cordy Glenn, and then drafting center/guard Billy Price in the first-round. It’s clear they realized what they had on the offensive line wasn’t going to work, so they upgraded it. Glenn was the left tackle who was blocking for LeSean McCoy during his 2016 campaign when he averaged a career-high 5.4 yards per carry, and Price was widely considered to be a top-two center in the draft.
While the offensive line moves were important and served a purpose, nothing was more important than the Bengals moving on from Hill. While he did average just 5.3 carries per game in 2017, the stranglehold he had on the goal-line carries is what’s important. Hill scored 29 rushing touchdowns over a three-year span, which is obviously a huge plus for projecting a running back, especially when you have the same head coach. Once Hill went down last year, Mixon totaled 74 touches over the next four games (18.5/game, would have ranked 11th among running backs last year), racking up 300 total yards and three touchdowns against some of the toughest defenses in the league (Jaguars, Titans, Broncos, Browns). All four of those teams ranked in the top-12 against fantasy running backs (yes, the Browns). Then Mixon went down with a high-ankle sprain that knocked him out of Week 13, seemingly knocking off the momentum that he’d gained. But once he got back to full strength, they gave him another massive workload against the Ravens where he delivered 97 total yards on 19 touches.
The Bengals drafted running back Mark Walton in the fourth-round of the NFL Draft, though it seems as if he’s going to be Giovani Bernard‘s replacement, as Bernard is a free agent at the end of the 2018 season. Meanwhile, Mixon has hit the weight room and shed some pounds in preparation for a larger role, which is again similar to what Le’Veon Bell did after his rookie year. He’s lost 13 pounds and has been described as “svelte” by beat writers who follow the team closely (read update here). Bell dropped 20 pounds after his rookie season, dropping down to 224 pounds, which is right where Mixon is (225). Being in tip-top shape should never be considered a bad thing.
WORKLOAD
Some are still concerned about Bernard stealing work from Mixon, but I’d argue that the Bengals have taken three running backs inside the top four rounds since Bernard has been on the roster. Believe me when I say, he’s not the one. He’s going to have a role, but similar to the one he had last year when Mixon was turned to as the lead-back. In the five games where Mixon received the bulk of the carries, Bernard totaled 34 touches (6.8/game), which is not enough to concern me considering the Bengals running backs have combined to average 458.2 touches over the last five years. That’s a robust 28.6 touches per game, though I’m not telling you to project Mixon for 21.8 touches per game, but rather it’s a possibility if they use the same timeshare they did last season.
What makes the fact that Mixon averaged 18.5 touches per game once Hill went down even more impressive is that the Bengals averaged just 57.9 plays per game in 2017, which was the lowest in the NFL. It’s also why you saw their overall carries dip from 393 in 2016 to just 331 in 2017. I’d attribute part of that to the change in offensive coordinator in Week 3, as it seemed like Bill Lazor slowed down the offense. With 14 games and a full offseason, I’d expect that number to rise closer to where it has been under Marvin Lewis, which was in the 63-65 play range from 2014-2016.
When looking for a potential breakout at running back, you need someone who can catch passes out of the backfield, and that’s arguably Mixon’s best trait. He saw 34 targets in 14 games last year, while playing alongside both Hill and Bernard, hauling in 30 of them for 287 yards. His 88.2 percent catch rate ranked second in the NFL among those who saw at least 25 targets, while his 8.4 yards per target ranked sixth. Again, Bernard is going to be involved, but if the timeshare persists like it did once Hill went down (and before Mixon hurt his ankle), it was 74 touches for Mixon to Bernard’s 34 touches, which is essentially a 70/30 timeshare. Here are the only other running backs who were responsible for 70 percent of their team’s running backs touches in 2017: Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon, and LeSean McCoy. In fact, the only running back who saw more than 60 percent of his team’s running back touches and didn’t finish top-16 was Frank Gore. As of this moment, Mixon’s early ADP is RB16.
2018 OUTLOOK
Needless to say, I’m buying Mixon at his current price. He’s an extremely talented three-down running back who is on a team with no other running back who can shoulder a big load. The competition he does have on the roster is on third-down, which is again, something that Mixon excels at. The offensive line will likely take some time to gel, but they’ll definitely improve over last year. Fortunately, they shouldn’t see loaded boxes with A.J. Green and John Ross healthy. All of this combined with Mixon’s determination to be in tip-top shape, what’s not to like? When you look into the future, I often hear people say, “Man, how could we have not seen this guy breaking out?” Don’t come to me and say that because this is me telling you right now that it wouldn’t shock me to see Mixon as a first-round fantasy pick next year. My 2018 projection: 262 carries, 1,074 rushing yards, 6 rushing touchdowns, 40 receptions, 316 receiving yards, 2 receiving touchdowns
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.