This is the second in what I have deemed my trilogy of PPR mock drafts. In the opening salvo, I conducted a mock from an early position. This is the middle act, and is a mock from a middle position. The finale will be a mock from a late position.
This draft will be performed from the #7 spot. I will be writing the explanations for each pick as I make them in order to truly capture my thought process in the moment.
As always, this draft will be conducted assuming a standard-sized roster of QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, flex, TE, DEF, and K.
Combine rankings from 100+ experts into one consensus cheat sheet
1.07 Odell Beckham (WR – NYG) ECR #7, ADP #10
Already, I can see this is going to be more challenging than picking from an early spot. At the top, there’s no decision between what position to draft; it’s just a matter of which RB. Here, I had to decide between an RB or a WR and that decision will fundamentally change my approach over the next few rounds. I am a big proponent of early RBs this year, so I am excited to see how this will play out.
I went with Odell Beckham over DeAndre Hopkins mostly because of personal preference. Hopkins overperformed his expected touchdown total last season, and Deshaun Watson is due for some serious regression. Meanwhile, the Giants offense underperformed last year. It’s splitting hairs between the two, but I prefer Beckham.
I chose Beckham over the RB because out of the three RBs I would consider here, Alvin Kamara, Leonard Fournette, and Kareem Hunt, they all have some concerns. Kamara has volume concerns. Fournette has passing game concerns and plays in a weak offense. Hunt has Spencer Ware behind him and Andy Reid potentially pulling him on passing downs, and he’s the least talented of the three. Compare them to Beckham, where as long as Beckham stays on the field, I have no doubts he will be a top-five WR.
2.6 Christian McCaffrey (RB – CAR) ECR #20, ADP #17
There are plenty of WRs I like in this spot. However, the RB pool is drying up quickly. I am not a Zero RB enthusiast, so I know this pick must be a running back. McCaffrey is the choice here because he has a very safe receptions floor. I have a hard time envisioning anything fewer than 80 receptions for McCaffrey.
He’s like Alvin Kamara-lite in the sense that he’s an RB that scores his points by catching passes and has a coach that understands how to maximize his abilities. McCaffrey certainly doesn’t have elite RB1 upside, but he is very unlikely to fail.
3.7 Joe Mixon (RB – CIN) ECR #38, ADP #25
I have Mixon ranked ahead of McCaffrey, but based on ADP, I knew I could wait on Mixon. My goal in drafts is to come out of the first three rounds with at least two RBs. I prefer to take the RB in the first round so that I have more flexibility in Rounds 2 and 3, but it ended up working out here anyway. I am all in on Mixon this season. He has Le’Veon Bell qualities, but found himself in a very poor situation in 2017.
He enters 2018 as the clear lead back. He’s also an adept pass catcher and will be the goal-line back. The Bengals improved their offensive line with Cordy Glenn and Billy Price and are due for positive regression on the whole offensively. Mixon has legitimate top-five upside, and I expect him to be a late-first/early-second round pick in 2019.
4.6 Allen Robinson (WR – CHI) ECR #39, ADP #41
This pick will not be possible in real drafts. I just can’t see any way Allen Robinson’s ADP remains in the fourth round. We’re just two years removed from this guy being a late first-round pick. He’s supremely talented and now leaves the laughably bad Blake Bortles for the next great QB in Mitch Trubisky.
Robinson is my WR10 and an absolute steal in Round 4. He is the primary option for an ascending young QB in an offense trending towards being more pass happy. I have no concerns over his health. Robinson doesn’t even have to be a WR1 for this pick to return value, but I expect he will be.
5.7 Dion Lewis (RB – TEN) ECR #51, ADP #61
I am not a fan of the fifth round. Almost every player I like has an ADP multiple rounds lower. I am resigned to the fact that I will be reaching for someone, and Lewis made the most sense here for many reasons.
He’s proven that he is a talented player. He led all RBs in juke rate last season and didn’t drop a single pass, posting a 91% catch rate. Lewis is going to split time with Derrick Henry, but while Henry cannot catch passes like Lewis, Lewis can run between the tackles like Henry. Lewis is a satellite back who is capable of handling a full workload if necessary.
He is not just a passing down back. He is going to steal some early down carries as well and frustrate anyone who takes the Henry plunge earlier in drafts. And if an unfortunate injury struck Henry, Lewis could be an RB1.
6.6 Chris Hogan (WR – NE) ECR #76, ADP #76
With my starting lineup set, it is now time to load up on WRs and RBs. While Hogan is not the highest ranked player on my board, he makes the most sense here based on ADP. Hogan was trending as a season-long WR2 and has double-digit touchdown upside tethered to Tom Brady. With Brandin Cooks gone and Julian Edelman suspended for four games, Hogan will be Brady’s WR1 for at least a quarter of the season and potentially even more. He is a great combination of floor and upside and well worth being the first player off my bench.
7.7 Tarik Cohen (RB – CHI) ECR #88, ADP #74
It turns out my selection of Chris Hogan was unwise in Round 6 as I missed out on Randall Cobb, who I thought I would be able to get with this pick. Instead, I went with Tarik Cohen, a player I think is more talented than Alvin Kamara, but just wasn’t used properly. Cohen is dynamic in space, and new head coach Matt Nagy has already spoken about moving Cohen all over the formation. He’s my RB17, and I do believe I have an every week RB2 coming off the bench.
8.6 Marquise Goodwin (WR – SF) ECR #99, ADP #100
At this point, I am now just taking the best players on my board. Goodwin is my WR19. After Jimmy Garoppolo took over, Goodwin averaged 8.6 targets per game and almost had three consecutive 100-yard performances (one was 99).
He is a legitimate weekly WR2, and unless the 49ers bring in Dez Bryant, I am not at all worried about his target share. I like Pierre Garcon as well, but at 32 years old and coming off a serious neck injury, there’s a chance Garcon is done. Even if he is not, Jimmy G can certainly support two fantasy relevant WRs.
9.7 Trey Burton (TE – CHI) ECR #97, ADP #93
I didn’t want to take another Bear, but Burton fell two rounds further than expected. The value is just too great. Burton flashed TE1 potential multiple times when filling in for Zach Ertz in Philly. Now, he finally gets a chance to start, and for the same reasons I like Allen Robinson and Tarik Cohen, I like Burton to return at least low-end TE1 value.
10.6 Isaiah Crowell (RB – NYJ) ECR #101, ADP #94
I know what you’re thinking. A Jet? Why? The answer is that it is the 10th round and Isaiah Crowell is a starting running back for an NFL team.
The Jets will be bad, but so were the Browns last year when Crowell finished as an RB3. I’m drafting him as my RB5. Crowell is a fine bye week stopgap with low RB2 upside.
11.7 Jared Goff (QB – LAR) ECR #113, ADP #106
It is finally time to grab my first QB. A hallmark of my “wait on QB” approach is that I will almost always take two of them. Goff is my QB8 as I am not in the camp that believes Goff is a glorified game manager. I acknowledge he was extremely efficient last season and it is unlikely he can sustain QB1 production while attempting fewer than 500 passes. However, with the addition of Brandin Cooks and defenses naturally focusing on Todd Gurley, I expect the offense to open up a bit more this season. Goff may be a bit game script dependent, but that’s why I will have two QBs — so I can play the matchups.
12.6 Ty Montgomery (RB – GB) ECR #129, ADP #117
Before I take my second QB, I’m happy to lock up the 2018 version of Dion Lewis. I don’t mean that in the sense that Montgomery is going to be an RB2. The parallel is in the fact that, like the 2017 Patriots, there are three potentially viable fantasy RBs in the Green Bay backfield. The starting RB for Aaron Rodgers is going to have value. Montgomery is the cheapest one, and he is the best pass catcher. I’ll gamble on him.
13.7 Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) ECR #131, ADP #124
I have Pat Mahomes ranked one spot ahead of Prescott, but I went with Prescott because of the contrasting play styles. Prescott gives me the rushing floor and he’s already showcased elite QB1 ability. I will gladly pair him with Goff and play the matchups.
14.6 Justin Tucker (K – BAL) ECR #186, ADP #146
I will always go with the best kicker of all time over a defense because I plan to stream defenses.
15.7 New Orleans Saints (D/ST) ECR #210, ADP #194
The Saints are the highest ranked defense on my board and play the Bucs in Week 1.
Final Roster
QB: Jared Goff, Dak Prescott
RB: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Dion Lewis, Tarik Cohen, Isaiah Crowell, Ty Montgomery
WR: Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson, Chris Hogan, Marquise Goodwin
TE: Trey Burton
DEF: Saints
K: Justin Tucker
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive, follow him @jasonkatz13, and listen to him on the Fantasy Forensics Podcast.