This is the first in what I will deem my trilogy of PPR Mock Drafts using the FantasyPros Mock Draft Simulator. In the opening salvo, I will conduct a mock from an early position. The middle act will be a mock from a middle position. And the finale will be a mock from a late position.
Drafting from #1 is no fun so I’ve elected to do this mock from the two spot. This is going to be a complete genuine exercise and I will be writing the explanations for each pick as I make them in order to truly capture my thought process in the moment.
As always, this draft will be conducted assuming a standard sized roster of QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, Flex, TE, DEF, K.
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1.02 David Johnson (RB – ARI): ECR #4, ADP #3
The top three picks should all be running backs. The specific RB you take is really up to you. There’s no wrong answer between Todd Gurley, Le’Veon Bell, and David Johnson. I am partial to Johnson because I do believe that pound for pound, he is the best RB in the NFL. He is essentially a WR2 and RB1 all wrapped in one. Bell is, too. And what Gurley did last year in a revamped Rams offense cannot be dismissed. I’ve always been a DJ guy and lest we forget how truly impressive his 2016 was where he outscored everyone – including all the QBs. I know some are concerned about the Cardinals having the weakest offense of the three and I acknowledge that his touchdown upside might be capped, but DJ is completely game script proof and a lock for 350+ touches.
2.11 Tyreek Hill (WR – KC): ECR #29, ADP #26
Anyone who has followed me for the past two years knows how much I love Tyreek (the football player, not the human). In my PPR Mock from August 27, 2017, here is what I said about my selection of Hill at 4.11: “I took Hill here because he was by far the best player on my board. I have Hill ranked as my WR10 against his ECR of WR26. This is a potential league-winning pick if I’m correct. Hill was incredibly efficient last season which indicates that he is good at football. His snap count stands to double this season, and Andy Reid is treating him like a weapon he has to protect, which shows me the team believes he is important. I am all-in on Hill in 2017.” As it turned out, I wasn’t high enough on Hill, last year’s WR5. Yet, despite his 2017 finish, he’s ranked outside the top 12 WRs. He only saw 105 targets last season and now is tethered to a QB in Pat Mahomes that is much more suited to Hill’s game. Hill still hasn’t seen his ceiling. I will gladly take him at the end of the second round.
3.02 Jerick McKinnon (RB – SF): ECR #26, ADP #24
I could sit here and remind you all about his SPARQ score and his athleticism, but you already know that. Kyle Shanahan hand-picked Jerick McKinnon to be his main running back and then proceeded neither sign nor draft any RB of consequence. All three RBs behind McKinnon are second-year players and only Matt Breida has any real on-field experience, and he wasn’t very good. For years, I’ve been waiting for McKinnon to get his chance. You bet I want to be on board when the breakout finally comes.
4.11 Joe Mixon (RB – CIN): ECR #39, ADP #28
This is a complete steal. It’s just not fair. Mixon is ranked inside my top 12 RBs this season. I absolutely love his talent and the Bengals have made improvements to their offensive line and are due for some natural positive regression offensively. The RB position is about to get very ugly. I implore everyone to try to come out of the first three rounds with at least two RBs. Obviously you must take what the draft gives you, but that should be your goal coming in. I just got an RB that I believe will return second round value, possibly first round value, at the end of the fourth round. This is going to be my best pick and it won’t even be close. I also realize that there is no chance any of you will actually be able to get Mixon at the end of the fourth round in your drafts.
5.02 Robert Woods (WR – LAR): ECR #59, ADP #73
Wow. I really dislike the fifth round. No matter who I selected here, I wasn’t going to be happy. With three RBs already, I am going to ignore that position for a while unless some screaming value arises. The remaining TEs are unimpressive and I am not taking a QB before at least the 10th round. That means it is almost certainly time to rattle off a few WRs. Woods was a weekly WR2 for a stretch last season before spraining his AC joint in his shoulder. He has a good rapport with Jared Goff and is on an elite offense. Brandin Cooks‘ arrival can work both ways – either he takes pressure off of Woods or he takes targets from Woods. Given the slate of cornerbacks Cooks projects to face this season, I am inclined to believe that will lead to more targets heading in Woods’ direction. He is a very worthy WR2.
6.11 Dion Lewis (RB – TEN): ECR #51, ADP #59
I know. I know. I just said I was probably going to ignore RB, but I have Lewis ranked too high to pass him up in this spot. My starting lineup is complete as to WRs and RBs so unless I’m taking a TE or a QB, my goal is just to fill my bench with the best players available. Lewis is my best player available and I believe he will end up with a lot closer to a 50% snap share than Derrick Henry enthusiasts would like. Lewis is a satellite back that can also run between the tackles, which is the most dangerous kind.
7.02 Marquise Goodwin (WR – SF): ECR #96, ADP #93
At this point in the draft, just about every player I like I have ranked way above consensus. No matter who I take, it will appear as a reach. Goodwin is inside my top 18 WRs so he’s an easy call for me here. He was a weekly WR2 with Jimmy Garoppolo last season and I am not worried at all about Dante Pettis stealing any targets. Goodwin will start alongside Pierre Garcon and Jimmy Garoppolo is more than capable of supporting two fantasy viable WRs.
8.11 Trey Burton (TE – CHI): ECR #95, ADP #100
After spending years trapped behind Zach Ertz, Burton can finally spread his wings and be free on the Bears. Matt Nagy’s new and improved offense will feature Burton as the starting TE in what projects to be an air it out attack. Burton has legitimate top-five upside and at this price, there’s little to no risk if he doesn’t pan out.
9.02 Sterling Shepard (WR – NYG): ECR #90, ADP #108
Shepard is capable of being a WR1 if he’s receiving the bulk of the targets. That obviously won’t happen with Odell Beckham back healthy, but Shepard is a very precise route runner with good hands and the clear #2 WR on this team. He may be third in the pecking order behind Evan Engram, but make no mistake, Shepard is at least a fantasy WR3 and well worth a spot on my bench.
10.11 Rishard Matthews (WR – TEN): ECR #109, ADP #142
I don’t know why this man gets disrespected every year, but he’s the best WR on this team and has been for a while now. Corey Davis was injured for a large portion of his rookie year and while I do still believe in Davis’ talent, Marcus Mariota‘s main guy is still Matthews. As long as Matthews is healthy, I have a hard time seeing how he isn’t at least a WR3.
11.02 Jimmy Garoppolo (QB – SF): ECR #100, ADP #98
I tried really hard to keep waiting on a QB, but I am enamored with Jimmy G. The undisputed greatest QB in NFL history looked phenomenal last season despite joining a new team midseason and having the likes of Kendrick Bourne and Trent Taylor as his primary targets behind Marquise Goodwin. Now with a full offseason of work and a new toy in Jerick McKinnon, the 49ers are all in on Garoppolo…and apparently I am all in on the 49ers.
12.11 Doug Martin (RB – OAK): ECR #160, ADP #143
This pick is less about Martin and more about Marshawn Lynch. Unfortunately, I believe Mr. Mode is done. And if I am correct, that leaves Martin as the primary runner in an offense that Jon Gruden has claimed he wants to bring back to 1998. The absurdity of that notwithstanding, for fantasy purposes, all I care about is the potential volume. Martin has RB2 upside if he ends up as the main back and, if not, I can just drop him.
13.02 Pat Mahomes (QB – KC): ECR #121, ADP #115
I surmise this will be my approach in a number of leagues this year — the double late round QB. I do believe fully in Jimmy G, but that doesn’t mean I can’t take Mahomes, too, and his elite upside. Mahomes has a brutal early-season stretch, but that’s okay. Either he performs better than expected and I know I can trust him, or I just stash him until I need to either drop him or use him after the schedule opens up. I expect Mahomes to be a perennial top-five fantasy QB for years to come. That may not start until 2019, but I have no issue gambling that it will start now.
14.11 Justin Tucker (K – BAL) ECR#191, ADP #146
He’s the best kicker in NFL history. The Ravens may have a bad offense, but Tucker is automatic, especially from 50+.
15.02 Pittsburgh (DEF) ECR #225, ADP #199
They’re my top-ranked defense remaining and they play the Browns in Week 1. That’s enough for now.
Final Roster
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Pat Mahomes
RB: David Johnson, Jerick McKinnon, Joe Mixon, Dion Lewis, Doug Martin
WR: Tyreek Hill, Robert Woods, Marquise Goodwin, Sterling Shepard, Rishard Matthews
TE: Trey Burton
K: Justin Tucker
DEF: Pittsburgh
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Jason Katz is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive or follow him @jasonkatz13.
