Many teams have shuffled their rosters in the offseason, but none seem to have made more of a splash than the lowly Cleveland Browns. The Browns signed Tyrod Taylor in free agency and drafted Baker Mayfield with the 1st overall pick in this year’s draft. They signed veteran playmaker Carlos Hyde in free agency and drafted Georgia standout Nick Chubb. They brought back the extremely talented and often troubled Josh Gordon and signed reception-monster Jarvis Landry in free agency. They also brought back talented players Duke Johnson Jr. and Corey Coleman. The Browns have won one game in the previous two seasons combined, but they look to be on track headed into 2018. A team synonymous with losing, the Browns will feature a cast of “lovable losers” this season. With so many options available to the Browns in real life, who should owners target for their fantasy teams? In this article, we look to make sense of the Browns skill players and how you should approach them on fantasy draft day and beyond.
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Quarterback
Which Browns signal-caller are you drafting onto your fantasy team? This one is a no-brainer, folks. Baker Mayfield has not even been able to compete with Tyrod Taylor at practice per reports and is a distant second on the depth chart. Taylor is your man here. I’m not even taking a flyer on Mayfield. He won’t see the field this season. Taylor is durable, having missed only 4 games in his 48 games in Buffalo. He is reliable, notching solid performances on a weekly basis. Taylor is not the most spectacular QB in the league, but he does not turn the ball over, averaging 17TD to 5INT per season in his 3 years in Buffalo. It’s very unlikely that he has any devastatingly bad games that generate a clamor for Baker Mayfield. If you’re looking to draft either player, Tyrod will give you extreme value, going undrafted in most leagues.
What are reasonable expectations for Tyrod Taylor from a fantasy production standpoint? He will be a reliable backup on your team and possible fill-in with the right matchup who has top-12 potential. I’m not saying he’ll finish top-12, but with his skill set and weapons, it’s not outlandish to see him finish in that range. Taylor’s averages in Buffalo equate to a 2952-17-5 line. Not stellar for points. He supplements those paltry passing points with reliable rushing. Taylor averaged 94-525 rushing per season, scoring nearly 5 rushing TD per year in Buffalo. I can live with those numbers.
Taylor’s last three season finishes are: 16, 8, and 16. Not too shabby for a QB who is going undrafted. He now has arguably his best set of weapons in 4 years with Josh Gordon, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Carlos Hyde, and Duke Johnson Jr. With such a limited supporting cast around him in Buffalo, it’s no surprise that Taylor threw so often to his TE and RB. Taylor’s most prolific receiver in Buffalo during his tenure was LeSean McCoy. That speaks volumes about the WR corps that the Bills strung together. I’ll take Taylor often, but not early. Chances are he’ll be undrafted, and you can pick him up in the last round. Enjoy the benefits of having Tyrod on your fantasy team this year. He will deliver and return a ton of value.
Running Back
Maybe the most puzzling picture for the Dawg Pound is the RB position. The Browns let “the Crow” Isaiah Crowell, spread his wings in 2018, and they signed talented “Frank Gore-lite” Carlos Hyde from the 49ers. Pass catching specialist Duke Johnson Jr. just signed a 3-year, $15 million extension, and the team drafted Nick Chubb from Georgia. This is shaping up to be a full-blown RBBC. I’m not supremely confident in taking any of these players, and I’m certainly not plugging one into my starting lineup without some context and a couple of games to see how the workload is divided. If I take a Browns back, I’m stashing him on my bench at least temporarily.
Out of this group, I’m most confident in Carlos Hyde. In his last 2 seasons with the Niners, Hyde had a 457-1926-14 rushing total and 86-513-3 receiving total. Those numbers made him good for RB11 and RB8 in STD and PPR leagues respectively in 2017 and RB14 and RB18 in STD and PPR respectively in 2016. Not bad. He comes now to a team with a much better offensive line than San Francisco. Hyde will likely be asked to carry less of the load on offense for Cleveland, so I predict he’ll be more efficient with his opportunities. I like him to get goal line work as well over Chubb and Johnson Jr. Hyde can catch the ball, evidenced by his receiving stats, but that’s Duke Johnson Jr.’s gig, and he’s not going to lose it. Hyde is more attractive in Standard leagues, but he has value in PPR formats as well. I’ll take him in the 7-8 rounds in both formats, just slightly lower than his ADP of 6.05 in Standard drafts and around his current 8.01 ADP in PPR.
Duke Johnson Jr. finished as RB11 in PPR formats last year and RB21 in Standard. He has never rushed for more than 400 yards in a season, and he has never had more than 120 carries in a season. His forte is the passing game, and the Browns have shown their confidence in him with a nice extension for the 4th year back. Duke is valuable in the same range as Hyde in round 7-8 in PPR, but I won’t take him until at least two rounds later than that in Standard drafts. He’s being drafted at 9.03 in Standard leagues and 8.03 in PPR.
I have the least confidence in Nick Chubb, who caught only 31 balls in 47 career games at Georgia. He isn’t a pass catcher, and his rushing work will be limited by Carlos Hyde, who I expect to carry the majority of the work, at least in Chubb’s rookie season. I’ll take a late flyer on Chubb, but I’m not taking him at his current asking price of 10.02 in Standard and 10.06 in PPR. Even the 10th round is too rich for my blood for an unproven commodity in a crowded backfield on a team with a history of losing. Don’t expect Chubb to help guide your team to a “dub” on a regular basis.
Wide Receiver
Fantasy owners are thinking way too hard about the Browns WR corps this year. It’s not rocket science, guys. Josh Gordon is back, reportedly at full health and completely sober. Let’s hope both of those are true for fantasy owners but especially for Gordon. I can bring up his outrageous 2013 season, where he lead the league in receiving yards despite missing 2 games. I can point to the fact that he averages over 17 yards per catch (YPC) and is one of the most dynamic playmakers at his position. This guy has shown otherworldly talent. He has also shown extremely poor judgment and past struggles with addiction. He hasn’t played more than 5 games in a season since 2013, and he has played in 16 games only once – his rookie campaign in 2012. Gordon has a career catch percentage of 52% – not impressive.
In short, Gordon is the ultimate boom or bust receiver. He can explode for 1600+ and 9TD or finish the season suspended indefinitely. Those are the extreme highs and lows of one of the league’s most interesting players. Maybe he’s lost a step through lack of playing time. Maybe he’s just as good as he once was. Maybe he will stay out of trouble. Maybe he won’t. Unfortunately, we won’t know until opening kickoff. For Gordon, it all comes down to personal opinion and draft preference. If you think he booms, grab him in Round 3. If you think he busts, stay away completely, or draft him later if your fellow league managers are likeminded. Personally, I’ll take the chance on Gordon because of his big-play ability, but that risk isn’t worth it for all owners. Some owners want a safer player, with a sturdy floor. That brings us to our next receiver.
Jarvis Landry had a very successful career in Miami, averaging 100-1010-5.5 over 4 seasons, catching over 70% of passes thrown his way. Landry is not going to light up the highlight reel, but he is as reliable as they come at the position. In a PPR league, Landry is undervalued at his current 5.01 ADP. In Standard leagues, I’ll take him in rounds 5-6, with a current ADP of 5.03. Landry has a high floor with a fairly low ceiling that make him a safe bet for WR2 production but not much more than that. Josh Gordon offers the worst possible floor with a top-5 overall finish as his ceiling. It’s all a matter of draft strategy and who you have on your roster already when it comes time to draft either of these players.
As for Corey Coleman, I’ll take a flyer on him, but I won’t be upset if he doesn’t end up on my team. He is the clear number 3 option at receiver, and he may lose even more receiving work to Duke Johnson, David Njoku, or Carlos Hyde. He is coming off a broken hand injury that ended his 2017 season. Even in 8 starts last year, he only had 58 targets which were converted into a 23-305-2 line. I’m not jumping for joy at having Coleman on my team, and I’m certainly not reaching for him in the middle or even late rounds of my draft. I’ll take him near the end of drafts if I can, but I’m not setting my expectations too high for the former Baylor standout.
Tight End
David Njoku finished 2017 with a meager 32-386-4 line. He was hailed as a talented rookie coming into last season, but the production never materialized. Njoku played fewer than half of offensive snaps last season for the Browns, but he will reportedly start at TE and play many more snaps this year. He is a big body at 6’4, 250, but outside of the red zone, he will have a lot of competition for touches with Landry, Gordon, Hyde, and Johnson. He has the talent to be a top-12 asset, but there is no way the targets will be there for Njoku with so many mouths to feed in Cleveland. He will be touchdown dependent. Grab him as a flyer if you need a backup, but don’t draft Njoku as your starting TE. He won’t have enough opportunities to produce a reliable weekly point total.
Conclusion
The Browns have a number of attractive fantasy options this year. Tyrod Taylor could be a steal late in drafts with QB1 potential, while Baker Mayfield is best left on the Waiver Wire. The Browns backfield is confusing, but any of the three should be scooped up in drafts and kept on the bench until there is some clarity. Carlos Hyde is the most valuable in Standard leagues, and Duke Johnson is the most valuable in PPR leagues. Josh Gordon and Jarvis Landry present opposite sides of the coin in the boom/bust former and safe/unexciting latter, but both are solid options. Drafting either of these players depends on preference and strategy. David Njoku has a lot of potential, but will fight for target and catch scraps from other skill players. He won’t be a stud at his position this year. Don’t be scared off by Cleveland’s past. Focus on its improving future, and its array of valuable fantasy options. Use this article as a guideline for making an informed decision on draft day and as the season takes shape.
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Zachary Hanshew is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Zachary, check out his archive and follow him @zakthemonster.