Jimmy Garoppolo and Jerick McKinnon are two players who the public is generally very high on this summer. The former had instant success upon stepping on the field in San Francisco last year, and the latter is a freakish athlete who will now be headed for a much larger role as a 49er. Another driver of hype for these players is the fact that both are playing under offensive guru, Kyle Shanahan, who doubles as both the head coach and offensive coordinator for the Niners.
That all sounds great, but there are definite reasons to be concerned about both players, which you would know if you’ve listened to our podcasts or read our articles regularly. Our featured experts are here to give you the skinny on some other players you should exercise caution with and think twice about drafting at their current price.
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Q1. Which running back are you avoiding at their current cost and why?
Carlos Hyde (CLE) – Overall (ADP 79), RB28
“Playing his first full 16-game campaign, Hyde had a massive 299 touches last season, although he struggled with efficiency (career-low 3.9 YPC and 5.9 Y/A). Significantly lower volume should be expected for Hyde in 2018. Not only will he compete with rookie Nick Chubb for early-down work, but the Browns have one of the league’s best third-down backs in Duke Johnson. Unless he’s able to improve his efficiency, the expected reduction in workload means there’s a good chance that Hyde won’t return value.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
“Hyde is currently the 28th running back off the board and is in one of the most crowded backfields in the league. While Hyde has proven to be an effective rusher and an adequate receiver, it is expected that Johnson and Chubb will each play a role in this offense. Before Chubb was drafted, I was all over Hyde, but a situation this muddied with no defined roles makes me unlikely to draft the back with the most fantasy draft capital attached to his name. There are a number of backs currently being drafted above Hyde that I am more interested in. Without a locked in receiving or goal-line role, Hyde could end up lacking the two most valuable fantasy scoring commodities for running backs.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)
Isaiah Crowell (NYJ) – Overall (ADP 92), RB36
“Why is Crowell being drafted as a top-36 running back? Does anyone realize he played behind maybe the best interior offensive line in football last year, yet finished outside the top-30 running backs? It wasn’t due to lack of volume, either, as he was one of just three running backs over the last five years who exceeded 200 carries, yet finished outside of the top-30. He also doesn’t have Hue Jackson playing favorites anymore. The Jets’ offensive line is bottom-five in the NFL and Crowell isn’t even a top-two running back in his own team.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Alvin Kamara (NO) – Overall (ADP 7), RB6
“I think Kamara is a special player, but I will not be drafting him in the top half of the first round. The reason being he never saw more than 12 carries in any single game last year. It is hard to truly trust a running back purely based on the plethora of targets going to the backfield, especially when the Saints added a threat in the passing game, Cam Meredith and drafted Tre’Quan Smith. It is equally hard to expect a repeat of six yards per carry and 10 yards per reception this season, while having him score at the rate he did last season. That is what you will need for him to repeat the season he had in 2017, unless the touches increase significantly, which you can’t count on past the first four games while Ingram is suspended.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Jay Ajayi (PHI) – Overall (ADP 45), RB22
“I have no interest in counting on Ajayi as an RB2 this season. No Eagles running back had more than 16 carries in a single regular-season game last year, and Ajayi totaled just 112 rushes across 10 games (playoffs included) after coming to Philadelphia via trade. LeGarrette Blount might be gone, but Ajayi is still competing with Corey Clement and Darren Sproles for touches in a Doug Pederson offense that has been very comfortable with a committee approach the last two years. There are some RBs currently being drafted after Ajayi that I would rather take my changes on in 2018, and if I’m speculating on a Philly rusher, I much prefer Clement late than Ajayi early. ”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Q2. Which wide receiver are you avoiding at their current cost and why?
Tyreek Hill (KC) – Overall (ADP 27), WR10
“It’s as if Sammy Watkins was never signed and the Chiefs didn’t lose Alex Smith this offseason with the way Hill is being drafted. After seeing 105 targets on an offense that had no competition at wide receiver, Hill is being drafted as a top-10 WR? I’ve also heard the argument that Patrick Mahomes is an upgrade over Smith…well, if that’s true, Mahomes will have to post more deep-ball yards than anyone in the NFL and show off the highest passer rating on passes over 20 yards, because that’s what Smith did last year. If you’re drafting Hill as a top-10 receiver, stop…like right now.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
“Hill is a player I will not be drafting at his current ADP. He is too reliant on big plays, scoring all eight of his touchdowns in 2017 from more than 30 yards out. To take that a step further, six of his eight were from more than 50 yards out. Add in the addition of another deep threat, Watkins, and a new unproven quarterback, Mahomes, and I do not love Hill this season.”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
“I get the fantasy appeal of big-armed Mahomes taking the reigns of the Kansas City offense and potentially throwing bombs to deep-threat Hill in 2018, but I can’t fathom drafting Hill as the 10th wide receiver off the board, as his current ADP suggests. The big-play potential will always be there with Hill, but 23 receivers saw as many or more targets last year, and I don’t expect his volume to increase following the offseason acquisition of Watkins and the continued presence of Travis Kelce. Throw in the fact that Mahomes has just one NFL game under his belt and I’m not sure why so many people are drafting Hill as a no-brainer WR1. I won’t be. ”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Jarvis Landry (CLE) – Overall (ADP 50), RB23
“Leading the league in receptions (112) in 2017, Landry failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark last season as he averaged just 8.8 yards per reception. Volume has allowed Landry to post three consecutive top-20 fantasy seasons, but his volume is set to decline, and he’s unlikely to duplicate last season’s nine scores. There are several WRs — Alshon Jeffery, Marvin Jones, and Michael Crabtree, to name a few — selected later than Landry (ADP WR22) that I’d prefer in standard-scoring formats.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
Davante Adams (GB) – Overall (ADP 17), WR7
“Adams currently has an ADP of WR7 and the 17th overall pick, which is too rich for me. While he is the leader in receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons despite missing two games, the yardage just hasn’t followed. Despite being the closest thing there is to a lock for double-digit touchdowns, the rest of his numbers are lower than what I would like for my WR1. His 1,882 yards over the last two years rank 18th among all players and his 149 receptions rank 15th. He will also have to prove his capabilities of being the number one receiver for the first time, as he struggled in his second season when Jordy Nelson was sidelined.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)
Q3. Which quarterback are you avoiding at their current cost and why?
Deshaun Watson (HOU) – Overall (ADP 41), QB2
“Is there a player in the league with larger expectations than Watson? His ADP currently sits as the second quarterback off the board and the 39th player overall. Based off of five years of data, we’d expect the second quarterback off the board to score 338 fantasy points and while his seven-game pace exceeds that, it is also bolstered by some unsustainable numbers that are likely to fall back to earth. On the rushing side, there have been 45 seasons of quarterbacks with 30+ rushing attempts averaging over seven yards a carry (like Watson) last season in the history of the NFL. With him coming off a knee injury, we should expect his rushing numbers to fall.
As for his passing TD rate, there have only been four players in the history of the NFL to have two seasons of the nine-percent TD rate Watson sported last season, and the last one stopped playing in 1966. Heck, even since 1980, Peyton Manning is the only player to have two seasons with an eight-percent TD rate on at least 100 attempts. Paying a premium for a quarterback with such a shallow body of work is not something I am interested in this season.”
– Anthony Staggs (Pyromaniac)
“This should come as no surprise, but it’s Watson. I understand the upside, but guys, we have a five-game sample size. You do realize that there was a four-game stretch from Week 13-16 where Blake Bortles was the No. 1 fantasy quarterback, right? Again, this isn’t me saying that Watson is a complete bust, but he’d need to be a phenomenal passer and post gaudy Cam Newton-type rushing totals to finish where you’re drafting him. He plays behind one of the worst offensive lines in football and is coming back from a torn ACL, which may limit his mobility to start the season. Don’t pay for a five-game sample size.”
– Mike Tagliere (FantasyPros)
Kirk Cousins (MIN) – Overall (ADP 68), QB8
“Granted, Cousins (ADP QB8) has finished as a top-eight fantasy QB in each of his past three seasons in Washington, but I generally avoid QBs going in Round 6 (like Cousins). Based on my projections, the difference between QB10 (Cousins) and QB15 (Jared Goff) is just 3.04 fantasy points. With most QBs in that tier going multiple rounds later than Cousins, I’d much rather be patient and capitalize on the value that will inevitably fall.”
– Kevin Hanson (EDSFootball)
Cam Newton (CAR) – Overall (ADP – 62), QB6
“Newton is not a quarterback I’m interested in drafting in the fifth round, which means I won’t get him. I know Newton consistently finishes the season inside the top five for quarterbacks when he is healthy, but health is a major issue for him. On top of that, he is super inconsistent. Last season alone, he had eight games with 15 or fewer points. He finished the season as the QB2 thanks to seven games over 20 points, including three over 30. Those weeks you love him, but the bad weeks you hate him. ”
– Joe Bond (Fantasy Six Pack)
Tom Brady (NE) – Overall (ADP 59), QB4
“In general, I don’t like taking a quarterback early in non-superflex leagues, but I really don’t like Brady as the third or fourth guy off the board at the position. It might seem foolish to bet on age finally catching up with a guy that continues to defy the odds in that regard, but there is a reason only three players have 20+ touchdown seasons past the age of 38. Brady turns 41 in August, and he’s generally the first QB selected from the tier that includes Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, Drew Brees, and Kirk Cousins. I won’t be the guy that starts the run on that group. ”
– Jason Willan (Gridiron Experts)
Thank you to the experts for naming their overvalued players. Be sure to give them a follow on Twitter and subscribe to our podcast below for all the latest discussions this season.
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