R.C. Fischer discusses deep sleeper candidate and Raiders TE Derek Carrier in Season 3 of his Very Deep Sleeper series for FantasyPros.
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Derek Carrier has been in the league for six seasons and has not mattered for fantasy for more than one week — he was a ‘deep sleeper’ starter for a week or two with Washington in 2015. Carrier has scored one career TD in 50 game appearances. He doesn’t seem to have much of a resume to become a fantasy producer out of the blue in 2018.
Remember, this isn’t ‘deep sleepers’…it’s “Very Deep Sleepers.” We are reaching to the lowest depth of the rankings to find a needle in a haystack. I have three reasons why Carrier might finally have his needle in the haystack moment in 2018.
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1: The Measurables
Those who have danced with Carrier in the past for deeper fantasy leagues can likely recall he had some pretty fantastic workout numbers coming out of Beloit College in 2012…he was an analytics superstar (on paper). 6′3″+/238 pounds, a 4.50 40-time with a stunning 6.65 three-cone and 4.08 shuttle time. 238-pound people should not be able to move like that. He also sported a 38.0″ vertical.
He was a WR/TE, more WR in college — a dominant one for his tiny school/conference. He was not drafted but got an undrafted free agent look with Oakland. He slimmed down and worked as a 225+ pound, tall, fast, quick, and athletic wide receiver.
He looked pretty good in the preseason in brief appearances but did not make the 53-man roster. Eventually, the Eagles claimed him and bulked him up to a 245-250+ pound tight end for them later his rookie season.
You could see he had a little bounce in his step if you watched Carrier in his preseason work and limited regular season time. He was a little better than your average ‘movement’ tight end. He’s a willing blocker who can get downfield and catch passes. He’s also quick enough to run crisp routes with a nice leaping ability to fight defenders for the ball when needed.
Carrier has some athleticism to offer in the passing game. There’s a foundation of something here for a fantasy tight end prospect.
2: Carrier’s Coaching Connections
After his rookie 2012 season, the 49ers poached him from the Eagles, and he became a useful backup tight end with a little special teams work. In 2015, the Washington Redskins traded the 49ers for Carrier to back up Jordan Reed. Carrier worked as a TE/FB option for Washington, but most importantly he worked with Sean McVay for two years (2015-2016). In 2017, Sean McVay became a head coach for the Rams and made a trade to acquire Carrier.
Apparently, Carrier has made an impression on his coaches:
- Washington, with Jay Gruden and Sean McVay in place, traded for Carrier in 2015.
- In 2017, Sean McVay traded for Carrier right before the start of the season.
In 2018, Carrier became a free agent and was signed by Oakland to a nice three-year/$7M deal. And who is running the Raiders? Jon Gruden, mentor/confidant of brother Jay and his protégé Sean McVay. Carrier arrives in Oakland with some gravitas — a history with this tight circle of coaches.
3: Salary Cap Management
Who is the Raiders’ current ‘starter’ at tight end? Jared Cook, who usually disappoints the expectations wherever he goes. Cook definitely doesn’t roll off the tongue when you speak of the NFL’s top tight ends or fantasy TE1 candidates.
Jared Cook also makes $5.7 million this season, but he could be released without a cap hit/penalty. The Raiders are one of the bottom 10 teams in the league right now for extra cap space this season. They could (today) about double the size of their current cap space by releasing Jared Cook.
Is Jared Cook worth $5.7M this season? Does he deserve to be one of the 10 highest paid Raiders in 2018? Probably not.
Would Derek Carrier step in as a starter and be as good or better than Cook in 2018? I say, “yes.”
If Jon Gruden agrees that Carrier is as good as or better than Cook, but a better financial play as well, then Carrier may be a few months away from being the #1 tight end on the Oakland Raiders. Remember, this a Raiders team wanting to become more physical, change the culture, etc., under Gruden, and Carrier fills that ‘scrapper’ role better than Cook does.
If Carrier becomes the de facto starting TE for Oakland in 2018, could he be a shocking low-end TE1 for fantasy with his athleticism and experience? A top 10-15 fantasy TE outcome in 2018 is not a crazy proposition if he’s starting in Oakland and doesn’t have Jared Cook pushing him for touches.
The Derek Carrier “very deep sleeper” scenario is a sweet economic proposition for those in deep roster leagues right now because I’m sure Carrier is sitting for free among the available player pool. The cost to take a look is almost zero, but the payoff could be surprising.
It’s a quasi-Trey Burton situation to try to put it into context. A slightly undersized, athletic tight end toils away for a while as a backup and then finally “gets his day.” Carrier might have his day in a few weeks/months if Jared Cook is released, and then sudden sweet fantasy value appears.
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