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Overvalued Dynasty Players (Fantasy Football)

Overvalued Dynasty Players (Fantasy Football)

With OTAs in full swing, here are four overvalued dynasty players you should avoid at their current costs.

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Deshaun Watson (HOU) – QB4 (46th overall)
Watson’s ranking as the fourth quarterback is at his ceiling. With Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Carson Wentz as the top three quarterbacks, it is unlikely Watson could vault above his current position. Yet, there is the significant downside.

Watson threw a total of 204 passes as a rookie before suffering a season-ending ACL tear. His rookie season production is unsustainable, particularly his touchdown rate of 9.3%. While the Houston offense was high scoring during the time Watson started, his volume was low.

Watson’s season-long pace was 466 attempts, which would have been fewer than the Chicago Bears (473) who finished with the least passing attempts in the NFL in 2017. The volume will likely rise with reduced efficiency, but the number represents an illusion about Watson’s hot stretch. While Watson started, Houston’s running backs were on pace for over 1,600 yards rushing and 16 rushing touchdowns, so the high scoring offense was not solely on Watson. The quarterback position is deep, and as the 46th player in our consensus rankings, the opportunity cost of selecting Watson is too high in a startup draft to return value.

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