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NFL Head Coach Rankings (2018)

NFL Head Coach Rankings (2018)

Earlier this month, one of my bosses came to me and started talking about some of the new hires around the league and how I felt about them. He said that I had unusual enthusiasm when talking about the subject and he thought that our readers would appreciate it, so he asked if I’d like to write an article ranking the head coaches.

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While this decision can definitely vary by team personnel, I’m going to play this from an angle of all-around coaching with a balanced roster. I say this because some coaches would do better with a young team, while others would prefer veterans. Some are better suited for a team with more offensive talent, while others can win with defense. Now, let’s get one thing clear from the get-go. You are going to disagree with me, I get it, you love your team with all your heart and you might even have a tattoo of their logo on your arm. I’m not trying to fight with you, but rather state who I’d like my team to bring on as a head coach if they were all available. So, without further ado, let’s talk about some head coaches.

1. Bill Belichick (NE)
If he’s not atop your list, you’re doing it wrong. The crazy part is that I don’t even think he’s a great talent evaluator, but rather the greatest game-planner in the game. He continually proves that coaching matters more than most want to believe in the NFL. Yes, having Tom Brady helps, but you mean to tell me Brady wins five championships with the Packers? Nah. Belichick plays chess while others play checkers.

2. Sean Payton (NO)
Call me new-school, but the NFL is headed to a “whichever team can score more points” league that has made it tough for defenses to play the way they used to. Payton is an offensive mind that takes advantage of everything the defense will give him. He’s someone that needs to have a solid defensive coordinator in place, but that’s because of how involved he is in the team’s offense. There’s no one I’d rather have calling offensive plays for my team.

3. Kyle Shanahan (SF)
Some may say I’m jumping the gun here, but Shanahan is a natural leader. Some will say that Jimmy Garoppolo made him look better when he took over, but what about Matt Ryan‘s 2017 MVP campaign? Once Shanahan left, we saw Ryan regress back to the player he was prior to Shanahan arriving. It’s possible that C.J. Beathard and Garoppolo looked good because of the offense they play in, though it may be a combination of the two. He’s a young offensive mind that is willing to change the way he thinks, something that a lot of veteran coaches cannot do.

4. Doug Pederson (PHI)
If you didn’t fall in love with Pederson while watching the Super Bowl, there’s no way you’ll ever be convinced. He showed confidence in his players executing the plays he called without hesitation against the league’s juggernaut. The best part about them winning the Super Bowl is that they were a team who was considered talent-deprived on offense, but he turned them around in just two years. He’s most definitely an offensive-minded coach, but he’s one of the best, especially when the game’s on the line.

5. John Harbaugh (BAL)
The first defensive-minded head coach on my list, I believe that Harbaugh is just a great all-around coach. He always fields one of the best defenses in the league, has coached in a very competitive division for the majority of his career, and is always in the playoff race, regardless of the talent on the roster. Winning a Super Bowl does give him a bump, especially doing it with a quarterback like Joe Flacco, who most will now admit to being overrated. He’s not soft on his players, but he is well respected because of the way he approaches them.

6. Andy Reid (KC)
He’s fallen further down this list than I thought he would, but make no mistake, he’s still a great coach. There were hiccups in his play-calling throughout the season where he seemed to overthink what needed to happen. The offense looked even better once he allowed Matt Nagy to start calling plays, though he did seem to take those duties back in the playoffs (I know Nagy took the blame, though it looked as if Reid had his signature menu of plays in his hands). Whatever the case, Reid has made it through nearly two decades of football, has created some of the better head coaching candidates under his tutelage, and has been able to adapt his offense to those participating in it.

7. Sean McVay (LAR)
I actually wanted to put McVay higher on this list but decided that we should probably wait for a slightly larger sample size. I wish more teams would take the approach the Rams did and say to hell with what the conventional approach is. McVay is the youngest coach in NFL history and because of that, he’s going to continue to learn and adapt his offense to the game that’s being played, which is different than what it was 10 years ago. The Rams were left for dead last year and some even thought that Jared Goff was a bust, only to make a playoff run in his first season as coach. On top of that, he and general manager Les Snead have won the offseason when it comes to player acquisition, because you know McVay had a say in the moves they made.

8. Mike Tomlin (PIT)
This one is tough because I can make the argument for Tomlin to be higher on this list, but I can also make the case to lower him because he hasn’t done enough with the offensive talent on the roster. I believe his rosters have been more talented than John Harbaugh’s, but it seems both teams are always neck-and-neck. Still, Tomlin’s teams have posted top-8 win percentages in 8-of-11 seasons as a head coach, a track record that’s hard to argue with. The Steelers need more playmakers on defense in order for Tomlin to shine where he’s supposed to.

9. Ron Rivera (CAR)
This is a tough one for me, as Rivera isn’t a game-changer, but it’s also an area of the rankings where you don’t want to put unproven coaches in front of him. His defenses have been top-10 in five of the six seasons he’s been the head coach and they’ve made the playoffs in four of the last five years. While there are inconsistencies in his overall record, a lot comes down to inconsistent quarterback play. Cam Newton can make you look really good, but he can also make you look really bad. Rivera is pretty much hands off on the offense, so I’m not going to completely dock him for those inconsistencies. He’s a very authoritative figure as a coach, but also one who seems to be loved by players, as he was a player once upon a time.

10. Matt Nagy (CHI)
I was told that if Nagy was in my top-five that my rankings would be thrown out of our consensus, which is the only reason he’s not higher (I’m kidding). In reality, we’ve never seen Nagy as a head coach, so it’s hard to put him higher than this, but I’d take the uncertainty of a young offensive mind over the comfort of a stagnant veteran coach. At his press conference being introduced, a beat writer asked what his expectations were for the team’s record. His response was along the lines of that he didn’t want to put any expectations on them yet because he needs to learn every player’s strengths and weaknesses, then figure out how to work his offense around them. In other words, he’s understands that you don’t put a square peg into a round hole. Coming from the Andy Reid coaching tree, expectations are sky-high.

11. Bill O’Brien (HOU)
After what was a brutal 2017 season littered with injuries on both sides of the ball, most have already forgotten that O’Brien coached three straight 9-7 teams that included two playoff appearances. Keep in mind that he did that with little talent, as the starting quarterbacks for those playoff teams were Brock Osweiler, Tom Savage, Brian Hoyer, and Brandon Weeden. Giving him a healthy Deshaun Watson and J.J. Watt should help him get back on track, as I think he’s done more with mediocre talent than most coaches would have.

12. Anthony Lynn (LAC)
Raise your hand if you were sick of talent going to waste on the Chargers roster (raises hand). What Lynn did in his first season as a head coach was extremely impressive, as the Chargers fielded the league’s No. 1 defense and their offense looked better than ever, and that’s despite losing their first- and second-round draft picks (Mike Williams and Forrest Lamp) to injuries the majority of the season. Knowing that Lynn is an offensive-minded head coach who already has a grip on the defense, the future looks bright for the Chargers.

13. Pete Carroll (SEA)
He’s been sliding down the rankings as the years have gone on, but there’s still reason to love Carroll for what he is. The only reason that Russell Wilson started his rookie season was because Carroll refused to buy into the whole “if we spend money on a quarterback in free agency, he’s the starter” conversation. He said that it would be an open competition between Wilson and newly-acquired Matt Flynn, and he started Wilson Week 1 despite them giving Flynn a three-year, $26 million contract that offseason. He’s someone who will go to bat for his players, but the game may be passing him by as offenses become more and more untouchable. Still, Carroll has posted a top-12 win percentage in each of his last six seasons, including five playoff appearances. If we were playing 5-10 years ago, Carroll would be in my top-five.

14. Mike Zimmer (MIN)
After being a defensive coordinator for 14 years, Zimmer has been a mixed bag over his first four seasons as a head coach. After finishing 7-9 his inaugural season, the Vikings bounced back to 11-5 in 2015, but then dropped back to 8-8 in 2016, and then killed it in 2017 as they went 13-3 and all the way to the NFC Championship game. Losing Pat Shurmur could prove to be an issue, but they did replace him with John DeFilippo, who is considered an up-and-coming offensive mind. Zimmer’s defenses have been top-12 in each of his four seasons, so he’s delivering where he’s supposed to as a former defensive coordinator.

15. Pat Shurmur (NYG)
This one is interesting because I do believe Shurmur is a difference-maker as an offensive coordinator, but can he take that success into a head coaching position? He’s only had one opportunity to do that in his nine years as a coach, and it was with the talent-deficient Browns in 2011-2012 who had Colt McCoy and Brandon Weeden as starters in that time, two quarterbacks who are essentially out of the league. I’m not going to completely hold that against him, but it does go to show that he can’t make ‘just anything’ work. Still, I want to give him the benefit of the doubt because he’s been an excellent coordinator over the last few years, though some do struggle taking on more responsibilities.

16. Dirk Koetter (TB)
Once considered one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, Koetter hasn’t been able to pull everything together for the Buccaneers. I’m not opposed to a team led by him, though, as I believe there are a few factors that have led to him looking like a disappointment. One being Jameis Winston‘s questionable decision-making over the first few years of his career, with two being the lack of talent on the defensive side of the ball. They addressed the defense in a big way this offseason and I fully expect this to be a make-or-break year for Koetter. The Bucs could be better than most think.

17. Frank Reich (IND)
I think this is the perfect spot for Reich, as we really don’t know much about how he’ll operate as a head coach. While what the Eagles did the last few years was special, Reich didn’t have that type of success while coordinating the Chargers in 2014-2015, as those offenses ranked just 17th and 26th in points. Still, learning under Doug Pederson couldn’t have been a bad thing for him going forward, as he was able to observe a head coach who also absorbs play-calling duties. There’s plenty of uncertainty here, but I’d take the chance on that over going 8-8 every season, especially with his pedigree.

18. Doug Marrone (JAX)
I’m not one who believes that Marrone is a difference-maker, but rather someone who is running a team with some of the best defensive talent in the league. He’s not going to win you a Super Bowl because of his coaching, but at least he’s aware of the team he has in front of him. Most offensive coordinators want to throw the ball when possible, but Marrone said prior to last season that they’d ideally run the ball every play. He started to ramp up the passing as Blake Bortles improved, which was part of the reason they were able to make it to the AFC Championship game. In the end, I think he’s a coach who can win with adequate talent.

19. Dan Quinn (ATL)
It seemed that Quinn was on his way to being viewed as a top-10 head coach after a trip to the Super Bowl, but after watching Kyle Shanahan leave, the team (offense in particular) regressed quite a bit in 2017. They still won 10 games, so we can’t say they were too disappointing, but if you watched, you know what I mean. After coming from Seattle’s notorious defense, most expected the Falcons to be better on the defensive side of the ball from the get-go, but it didn’t happen until year three under Quinn, where they finally became a top-10 defense. Talent started to add up, so it’s likely that Quinn is a competent head coach, though not a game-changer. I’ll be curious to see how he handles the offense in 2018.

20. Adam Gase (MIA)
He might be one of those who fall into the category of better offensive coordinator than head coach, as his offenses have suffered since becoming a head coach. There’ve really been no bright spots on the Dolphins roster over the last few years, as both the offense and defense have been pretty ugly. Talent is definitely a problem for them, but Gase has shown that he cannot sift his way through that and field a competent offense like others have done. I don’t think Gase is done in this league by any means, but I do think it would benefit him to move back to being an offensive coordinator for a defensive-minded head coach.

21. Sean McDermott (BUF)
It was rather impressive that the Bills made the playoffs in his first season, but if you watched them as the season went on, they were a team trending in the wrong direction rather than the right one. He was brought on as a defensive mind, yet the defense really let the team down after their bye week, allowing at least 27 points in five of the final 11 games. When you’re known to be a coach who does well on one side of the ball, you need to nail that as a head coach and let the offensive coordinator do his job. I’m not writing off McDermott, but I also wouldn’t make him a priority in a coaching search.

22. Jon Gruden (OAK)
It’s been a long time since Gruden has coached, and the game has changed in a lot of ways since then. Gruden hasn’t left the game, though, so it’s not as if he hasn’t been paying attention, so I don’t want to dock him completely. The remark most are hanging onto is that he wants to “turn the clock back to 1998 and run the ball.” Well, here’s the deal – Gruden’s teams didn’t rank in the top-10 for rushing attempts in any of his final eight seasons as a head coach, so it’s possible he’s just playing the media game. He’s got a Super Bowl on his resume, though that was large in part to do with his defense. Still, winning without an elite quarterback is impressive (Brad Johnson was his quarterback). I don’t know if Gruden is willing to change his ways, but he’s going to have to in order to succeed once again.

23. Jay Gruden (WAS)
It’s odd to see both Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay come out from underneath Gruden to be difference-makers, yet Gruden’s teams have never been particularly good. Since becoming their head coach, the Redskins defense has ranked outside the top-20 in each of the four seasons, so it’s possible that he just hasn’t hired the correct defensive coordinator, though he’s had three of them. Still, that’s a responsibility of the head coach, so it’s definitely a knock on his credentials. He may be another one of those coaches who is just better as an offensive coordinator, because he coordinated some of the better Bengals offenses from 2011-2013.

24. Mike McCarthy (GB)
Some may wonder why McCarthy is down here in the 20’s due to him making the playoffs in 9-of-12 seasons, but I promise you that he’s not a great head coach. If you were to take away Aaron Rodgers and replace him with someone like Case Keenum, McCarthy would have been out of a job a long time ago. In fact, Rodgers has saved a lot of jobs on that coaching staff. It’s really a shame that he’s had Rodgers through his entire career and has just one Super Bowl win and three NFC Championship games to show for it.

25. Matt Patricia (DET)
He’s a defensive-minded coach who comes from the Bill Belichick coaching tree, which is often overvalued, simply because they aren’t Belichick. The odd part about him getting a head coaching job is that the Patriots defense was among the league’s worst in 2017 and disappointed more than often. The Lions don’t have a lot of top-notch talent on the defensive side of the ball, so if he can make it work, I’d be impressed. He does have Matthew Stafford and Jim Bob Cooter, so the offensive side of the ball should be fine, though I’m expecting him to add some elements of the Patriots, particularly when it comes to running the ball. I could be too low here, but I feel like he’s a mid-to-low-tier hire.

26. Mike Vrabel (TEN)
We don’t know anything about how Vrabel is going to run his team, but he did solid work as a linebackers coach with the Texans before taking over as the defensive coordinator in 2017. With the injuries that took place, every single coach would have likely had trouble with that defense, but they were worse than expected, allowing more points per game than any other team in the league, and it wasn’t even close. That’s not a great start, but the Titans apparently saw something that they could work with in him. He hired Matt LaFleur out from under Sean McVay, which is good, and he’s got plenty of talent on the roster, but his lack of experience is glaring.

27. Jason Garrett (DAL)
Similar to Mike McCarthy, Garrett has done nothing with elite talent at the most important position in all of sports (at least McCarthy got one Super Bowl). Regardless of how you feel about Tony Romo, he was statistically among the best in the game has ever seen and he played behind one of the best offensive lines in football. Now with eight seasons under his belt, Garrett has just two playoff appearances and one win. It’s actually remarkable that he still has a job considering the expectations for the Cowboys. There’s no creativity in his play-calling, the area where he’s supposed to make a difference.

28. Steve Wilks (ARI)
There’s not much on Wilks’ resume that says he should’ve gotten a head coaching job, and that’s not to say he can’t be a good head coach, but rather that it’s hard to imagine at this moment. He took over as the defensive coordinator for the Panthers last year and did a fine job, though it is a tiny sample size, and Ron Rivera likely has a lot more say in what happens than most. In addition to being named defensive coordinator in 2017, Wilks served as the assistant head coach to Ron Rivera from 2015-2016, but it’s impossible to know how much input he had on the team. The Cardinals do have some talent on the defensive side of the ball, though the offense has some work to do under Mike McCoy. I’m just a bit skeptical on him with such limited experience in a powerful role.

29. Todd Bowles (NYJ)
I was wondering how long Bowles would remain the Jets head coach after going 20-28 in his first three seasons, but they’re giving him another go in 2018. There’s no one unit on his teams during the last two years that have shown promise in their development, even if they did add talent through the draft. After trading away three second-round picks to move up and acquire Sam Darnold, it’s not likely Bowles will be there for the turnaround, either. I’m expecting there to be a new coach in New York next year and I don’t think Bowles will generate much interest in the head coaching market.

30. Vance Joseph (DEN)
It was rather how remarkable the Broncos went from a team that was competing for a title, to a team that you targeted in matchups last year. The most surprising part has to be the defense, which trended in the wrong direction under Joseph, who is supposed to be a defense-first head coach. The talent was not an issue, either, as they had one of the better secondaries in the league with one of the best pass-rushers in Von Miller. It’s possible that Joseph simply wasn’t ready to take over an NFL team with just one year of coordinating under his belt, but we’re grading him on his small body of work.

31. Marvin Lewis (CIN)
He’s one of those veteran coaches who seems to be pushing back on the way the game is played. He’s got the old school mentality where it’s his way or the highway and that’s just not going to work anymore. It’s why you haven’t seen the Bengals in the playoffs the last two years, and also why you’ve never seen him win a playoff game in seven appearances. He might be the closest thing we have to Jeff Fisher in the NFL, so it’s time for JJ Zachariason to start making some GIFs. If/when the Bengals do let him go at some point in 2018, just hope that your favorite team doesn’t pursue him. Seriously, Bengals, you guys haven’t won a playoff game in 15 years with him as your coach. What are you waiting for?

32. Hue Jackson (CLE)
Oh, Hue… Anyone who has been following me for some time knows my feelings on him. He seems like a nice guy, I’ll give him that, but he doesn’t belong in the NFL as a head coach. You’ve heard of the saying “Any Given Sunday,” right? Well, not with the Browns over the last two seasons as they’ve gone a combined 1-31. If that doesn’t get you the lowest ranking on a list, nothing will. It’s especially bad when there’s actual talent on the Browns roster. I told my Twitter followers back in February that if they want to jump on a bandwagon before it’s cool, look to the Browns. They have a ton of talent on the roster, but Jackson just hasn’t been able to make the transition from offensive coordinator to head coach the way he’d hoped. Once they move on from Jackson, expect talent to emerge on the Browns roster, well, provided they don’t hire another… Hue Jackson.


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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.

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