This week, there are no relievers with starting pitcher eligibility included. It’s all about true starting pitchers. One hurler carries a 35% ownership rate at one of the fantasy baseball host sites, but because his ownership rate is only 10% at the other included host site, I decided to slip him into the piece. The other three pitchers included all have ownership rates under 15%, and one of them is owned in under 5% of fantasy leagues.
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Hyun-Jin Ryu (LAD): Yahoo! – 35%, ESPN – 10%
The lefty is coming off of a 2017 in which he spun a 3.77 ERA, but as you might have astutely deduced from his low ownership rates, his true talent level wasn’t sub-three ERA. Ryu’s ERA wasn’t supported by his 4.74 FIP, 4.14 xFIP, and 4.36 SIERA, per FanGraphs, or his putrid 4.99 DRA, according to Baseball Prospectus. Simply put, even the most glowing advanced metric was a third of a run higher than his actual ERA. Since the veteran lefty backed that with just a 1.37 WHIP and modest 21.4% K%, a dip in production to his 2017 true-talent level ERA this year would have crippled his fantasy value. Instead of dipping to the talent level he showcased last year, Ryu has greatly improved his controllable skills through three turns in the rotation.
The 31-year-old lefty was wretched in his first start surrendering three earned runs on five hits, five walks, and two strikeouts in 3.2 innings, but he’s been excellent in back-to-back starts since. He held the A’s scoreless through six innings on one hit, one walk, and eight strikeouts, and he held the Padres to two earned runs on three hits, zero walks, and nine strikeouts in six innings. Add it all up, and through 15.2 innings this year, he owns a 2.87 ERA (2.83 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.16 SIERA), 50.0% GB%, 9.7% BB%, 30.7% K%, and 0.96 WHIP.
What’s fueling the improvement this year? It looks like his four-seam fastball has a lot to do with his 2018 success to this point. Among pitchers who threw a minimum of 120 innings last season, Ryu’s four-seam fastball had the seventh worst run value, according to FanGraphs. In addition to the ugly run value, it also had a 205 wRC+ against. He threw the pitch 36.8% of the time, but this year he’s cut the usage down to 28.3% while mixing in a previously unseen sinker 15.9% of the time. The sinker itself isn’t good and has a negative run value and a 168 wRC+ allowed, but the added wrinkle to his repertoire has resulted in his four-seam fastball posting a positive run value and an unbelievable -52 wRC+ allowed. The sinker now complements his four-seamer and cutter, giving him three different ways to manipulate movement with his pitches in a similar velocity range while being backed up by a trio of secondary offerings — changeup, curve, and slider. For his career, Ryu’s secondary offerings have buttered his bread, but at his best in 2013 and 2014, he was able to generate positive run values with his four-seam fastball.
During that two-year stretch which was prior to battling injuries, the lefty tallied a 3.17 ERA (2.97 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, and 3.40 SIERA), 1.20 WHIP, 49.2% GB%, 5.5% BB%, and 20.7% K%. I wouldn’t bank on him duplicating that success, but it is on his resume and makes his hot start to this season look less flukey. He’s worth rostering in 12-team mixed leagues or larger.
Andrew Triggs (OAK): Yahoo! – 14%, ESPN – 12%
Triggs’ 2017 got off to a promising start, but he was bombed in his last two turns of that campaign. Those last two starts came in June, and he ultimately underwent surgery in July to repair a torn labrum in his left hip. Circling back to his strong start to last year, through his first 10 starts of 2017, he whipped up a 2.64 ERA (3.54 FIP, 4.42 xFIP, and 4.42 SIERA), 1.14 WHIP, 50.0% GB%, 6.7% BB%, 18.8% K%, and 11.4% SwStr%. As the ERA estimators suggest, he wasn’t as good as his glowing ERA, but there were certainly some solid statistics mixed in there, namely his stingy walk rate and high ground-ball rate. Furthermore, his SwStr% suggested more punchout potential.
Fast forward to this year, and his SwStr% has dropped to 9.4%, but he’s bumped his strikeout rate up to 25.8%. The decline in SwStr% and surge in strikeout rate don’t make sense together, but the righty has a curveball that’s a viable put-away pitch when he gets hitters to two strikes with an 18.4% SwStr%. Triggs also has a slider that’s generated a 10.0% SwStr% this year and tallied a 14.7% SwStr% last season. He’s unlikely to maintain his current strikeout rate, but he’s also likely to outpace last year’s as well. Early in counts, Triggs has a sinker that generated a 58.5% GB% last year and a 76.0% GB% this year to lean on for favorable contact and quick outs. Despite having a changeup he very rarely throws, the right-hander doesn’t have much of a platoon split (.301 wOBA allowed to left-handed batters and .309 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters, for his career). Through three starts spanning 15.2 innings, Triggs has a 2.87 ERA (2.89 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, and 3.35 SIERA), 1.21 WHIP, 58.1% GB%, 9.1% BB%, and 25.8% K%. He’s grossly undervalued and should be scooped up in all 12-team mixed leagues and larger formats.
Yonny Chirinos (TB): Yahoo! – 14%, ESPN – 11%
Chirinos opened the season with a long-relief appearance spanning four scoreless innings, followed that with a pair of starts on what were considered bullpen days for the Rays, and took the hill for a third start against the Rangers last night. Chirinos was a total non-fantasy consideration entering the year, but the 24-year-old righty’s start to the season has thrust him into fantasy relevance.
Just a few days ago, David Laurila discussed Chirinos’ largely overlooked start to his 2018 campaign. The linked piece by Laurila is a great read that provides background on the right-handed hurler. Some of the important takeaways from that piece are that he began throwing his number-one pitch, his sinker, just a few years ago in 2015, he transitioned from a curve to his slider in 2014, and he changed to a split-change offering in late July, according to quotes from pitching coach Kyle Snyder.
Even though he lacks hype as a top prospect, there’s a lot to like about Chirinos, including a dominant 2017 at the Triple-A level. In 26 starts spanning 168.1 innings for Triple-A Durham last year, he recorded a 2.74 ERA (3.07 FIP and 3.16 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP, 50.5% GB%, 4.0% BB%, 22.0% K%, and 13.9% SwStr%. Those are outstanding numbers, but it’s also worth pointing out he was even better down the stretch. Snyder didn’t point out an exact start late in July in which Chirinos started throwing his split-change, but in his final nine starts, he tallied a 2.35 ERA (3.17 FIP) and 0.99 WHIP, in his final eight starts, he recorded a 2.45 ERA (3.15 FIP) and 0.97 WHIP, and in his final seven starts, he twirled a 2.20 ERA (3.31 FIP) and 0.95 WHIP. Thus, no matter whether he started using that grip on July 19, July 24, or July 29, he pitched better once transitioning to it.
He was messy in yesterday’s start, and his slider and split-change weren’t sharp. However, it’s one bad start after three scoreless appearances spanning 14.1 innings to start the year. Gamers in need of pitching help in 12-team mixers can give him a look, and he should be owned nearly universally in 14-team mixers and larger leagues to see how he bounces back from his lone hiccup to date in “The Show.”
Andrew Heaney (LAA): Yahoo! – 4%, ESPN – 3%
Currently, Heaney is only a deep-league option (think 14-team mixer or deeper) who also needs to be carefully deployed. The southpaw does a poor job of coaxing ground balls (38.5% GB% for this career), so he’s a dicey option in homer-friendly parks. He also has a big platoon split with a .270 wOBA allowed to 185 left-handed batters faced and a .359 wOBA yielded to 527 right-handed batters faced in his career. Therefore, the 26-year-old lefty isn’t the safest of plays against a righty-heavy lineup, especially one that’s top-heavy with elite right-handed batters. Having said all of this, I wouldn’t be touting Heaney if he lacked potential.
He was the ninth pick in the 2012 MLB Amateur Draft, and he was once a well-regarded prospect. He also had a fantasy-relevant 2015 season in which he totaled a 3.49 ERA (3.73 FIP, 4.41 xFIP, 4.31 SIERA, and 4.72 DRA), 1.20 WHIP, 6.4% BB%, and 17.8% K%. He blew out his elbow after just one start in 2016, and missed most of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He’s returned throwing his fastball a little harder, and he backs that with a curve and changeup. Eric Longenhagen wrote a scouting report for Heaney back in early February for FanGraphs, and he graded the lefty’s three pitches as average.
Prior to undergoing Tommy John, his breaker was considered a plus pitch. In 2015, the curve tallied a whopping 22.4% SwStr%. In his only start this year, Heaney threw his curve 28 times out of 85 pitches, and he totaled eight whiffs on the pitch, according to Brooks Baseball. He struck out seven in five innings in that start, but he also allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits and one walk. There will undoubtedly be ups and downs for Heaney, but ZiPS and Steamer project him to post a low-four ERA and WHIP in the 1.30 vicinity. Those numbers play in deeper leagues.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
