I don’t know about you, but every time I come down with a cold, I buy the generic version of cold medicine available at CVS or Walgreens. It’s a few bucks cheaper than the “name” brand, even though the ingredients are the same.
The same principle applies in fantasy baseball. I’m always on the lookout for underappreciated players who can give me similar production to big-name players but at a much more modest cost on draft day. This isn’t about hating on “name brand” players — Dayquil gets the job done, too. It’s just about value.
At the end of the day, this is a numbers game. It doesn’t matter if a guy plays in a major media market, does TV commercials, or “looks” like a ballplayer (whatever that means). For one reason or another, there will be tons of overhyped and underhyped players every year, and that’s a market inefficiency that you can use to your advantage.
So let’s go around the horn and take a look at an “off brand” option at every position who could give you similar production to a “name brand” player that’s going many rounds earlier in drafts.
The crew at TeamRankings.com stayed up all night crunching the March Madness numbers. Get the best bracket for your pool.
I don’t know about you, but every time I come down with a cold, I buy the generic version of cold medicine available at CVS or Walgreens. It’s a few bucks cheaper than the “name” brand, even though the ingredients are the same.
The same principle applies in fantasy baseball. I’m always on the lookout for underappreciated players who can give me similar production to big-name players but at a much more modest cost on draft day. This isn’t about hating on “name brand” players — Dayquil gets the job done, too. It’s just about value.
At the end of the day, this is a numbers game. It doesn’t matter if a guy plays in a major media market, does TV commercials, or “looks” like a ballplayer (whatever that means). For one reason or another, there will be tons of overhyped and underhyped players every year, and that’s a market inefficiency that you can use to your advantage.
So let’s go around the horn and take a look at an “off brand” option at every position who could give you similar production to a “name brand” player that’s going many rounds earlier in drafts.
The crew at TeamRankings.com stayed up all night crunching the March Madness numbers. Get the best bracket for your pool.
Catcher
Name Brand: Salvador Perez (ADP 108.5)
Off Brand: Wilson Ramos (ADP 201.0)
The boring-but-consistent Perez isn’t the type of player who is typically overrated in fantasy drafts, but perhaps people are overpaying for reliability at a position with few appealing options. He is coming off of a career year in both home runs and RBIs and has now put together three straight 20+ HR seasons, so he does belong in the top-five at catcher. But that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s worth a top-110 pick.
Ramos is a bigger injury risk than Perez, but he should just about match Perez in per-game production, and he’s going almost 100 picks later. ZIPS projects Perez to hit .258 with 23 HRs and 73 RBIs in 134 games and Ramos to hit .266 with 17 HRs and 62 RBIs in 107 games. Yes, Perez’s consistency and relative durability give him a slight edge over Ramos, but it is not nearly as big a difference as their ADPs would suggest.
First Base
Name Brand: Freddie Freeman (ADP 20.7)
Off Brand: Eric Hosmer (ADP 80.2)
Freeman was on his way to an absolutely monster season in 2017 until he broke his wrist, so perhaps he will come back with a vengeance in 2018 and make this comparison look silly. But none of the projection systems seem to think so. The general consensus is that Freeman should hit about .290 with 30 HRs, 80-90 runs, 80-90 RBIs, and around seven steals, while Hosmer should hit around .285 with 25 HRs, 80-90 runs, 80-90 RBIs, and around five steals.
It looks like Hosmer may be getting dinged in drafts for signing late in the offseason and then entering a less-than-favorable offensive environment (to put it mildly) in San Diego. There’s no question that Petco Park is extremely tough on left-handed hitters, but Hosmer’s previous home park was also pitcher-friendly, and he is coming off a .318/98/25/94/6 season. He also might even be getting a slight lineup upgrade with the move.
Ultimately, this isn’t really about Freeman’s ADP, which is reasonable given his combination of a high floor and high ceiling. But Hosmer has finished as a top-35 player in 5×5 roto leagues in two of the last three seasons, so his ADP looks awfully low right now.
Second Base
Name Brand: Brian Dozier (ADP 34.5)
Off Brand: Rougned Odor (ADP 103.3)
Let me start off by saying I’m a big fan of Dozier. He’s finished as a top-31 player in 5×5 roto leagues in three of the last four seasons and plays a position where elite options are hard to come by, so his ADP looks 5-10 picks too late for my taste. Yes, he’s streaky, but he always gets his numbers in the end.
The thing is, Odor is basically the same player as Dozier, and he’s going almost 70 picks later. That’s grand larceny, plain and simple. Odor had a disastrous .204 batting average last season, but he still managed to hit 30 HRs and steal 15 bases. The lousy batting average was partially due to a spike in his strikeout rate, but it was mostly driven by a .224 BABIP that was 49 points lower than his career mark. Expect him to bounceback with a .255-30-15 season, which will make his numbers look a whole lot like the typical Dozier season.
Third Base
Name Brand: Anthony Rendon (ADP 49.3)
Off Brand: Adrian Beltre (ADP 138.2)
We pretty clearly have to chalk this one up to ageism. Rendon is 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Beltre is 38 and at the tail end of his. But as I pointed out in my recent piece on injury-prone players, while Beltre isn’t a great bet to play 150+ games, he has yet to show any real signs of decline while on the field — and he would have essentially matched Rendon’s production if you paired him with a replacement-level 3B for the two months he missed at the beginning of last season.
Rendon isn’t an awful value in the fifth round of fantasy drafts. He has a pretty high floor and perhaps he can take his game to another level. It makes sense that he’s going ahead of Beltre, but it’s very hard to justify a nearly 90-pick difference when Beltre could easily outproduce Rendon in both batting average AND home runs, especially on a per-game basis.
Shortstop
Name Brand: Jean Segura (ADP 76.2)
Off Brand: Eduardo Nunez (ADP 133.8)
I’ve already planted my flag on Nunez as one of my favorite sleepers this year, and the comparison to Segura really brings it into focus. Segura is a solid fantasy player and his ADP is reasonable enough considering his impressive production over the last two seasons and the lack of surefire starters at shortstop. But Nunez (.313/60/12/58/24) was a little bit better than Segura (.300/80/11/45/22) last year, in fewer games. The previous year, Nunez hit 16 homers and stole 40 bases alongside a solid .288 batting average, so he also has plenty of upside.
I understand Segura going slightly ahead of Nunez in drafts because of concerns about Nunez’s playing time once Dustin Pedroia returns from knee surgery. But I ultimately expect Nunez to get more than enough playing time to match Segura’s production, so I will gladly draft an impact player at another position when Segura is coming off the board and then grab Nunez several rounds later.
Outfield
Name Brand: George Springer (ADP 27.8)
Off Brand: Khris Davis (ADP 66.2)
Springer and Davis aren’t exactly the same type of player, but the comparison has gradually become more apt as Springer’s home run totals have risen and his stolen base totals have declined. The projection systems expect Springer to hit about .270 with 30 HRs, 95-100 runs, 80-85 RBIs, and 8-10 steals, while they see Davis hitting about .250 with 35-40 HRs, 80-85 runs, 100-105 RBIs, and three or four steals.
In terms of overall value in 5×5 roto leagues, Springer finished as the 31st and 52nd most valuable fantasy player in 2017 and 2016, respectively, while Davis was the 42nd and 62nd most valuable fantasy player over those two seasons. So Springer is perhaps worthy of taking 10-15 spots ahead of Davis, rather than their almost 40 spot difference in ADP.
Starting Pitcher
Name Brand: Carlos Martinez (ADP 51.8)
Off Brand: Zack Godley (ADP 114.0)
Martinez and Godley are both very good pitchers. In fact, they are the only two pitchers in baseball who finished in the top-10 in groundball rate while also striking out over a batter per inning (min. 150 innings). The ability to induce grounders and miss bats is a proven recipe for success, and both pitchers have solid enough walk rates as well.
While it may be splitting hairs, Godley did slightly outproduce Martinez in K rate, walk rate, and groundball rate, and Godley had a significantly better FIP and xFIP. He’ll also now get to pitch half his games with the newly-installed humidor at Chase Field, which could turn the previously hitter-friendly ballpark into one that more closely resembles Martinez’s pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium.
The best argument for drafting Martinez ahead of Godley is track record. Godley had a breakout season last year, whereas Martinez has been an upper-tier fantasy starter for three years in a row. I would take Godley first myself, but even if you wouldn’t, Martinez’s lengthier track record isn’t nearly enough to justify an over 60 pick difference in ADP.
Relief Pitcher
Brand Name: Corey Knebel (ADP 73.3)
Off Brand: Brad Hand (ADP 119.5)
Relief pitcher is the toughest position for this exercise because the value of relievers can change quickly based on whether or not they are pitching the ninth inning. So let’s stick with two relatively new closers who appear to have a firm grasp on save opportunities heading into the season.
It’s easy to understand why Knebel is one of the first closers off the board in fantasy drafts. He is coming off a season where he collected 39 saves with a miniscule 1.78 ERA and a 14.92 K/9 rate that trailed only Kenley Jansen and Dellin Betances, and he will handle the ninth for a Brewers team that is expected to win a lot of games. But he also walked 4.74 batters per nine innings, the worst mark among expected 2018 closers, and he also benefited from a likely unsustainable 91.9 percent strand rate. So it’s possible he could go through a rough patch this season, and he may not have a long leash as a relatively inexperienced closer on a contending team.
Hand doesn’t have quite the strikeout rate of Knebel and probably won’t be closing games for a contender. But save chances are difficult to predict, and Hand’s 11.8 K/9 rate and 2.16 ERA last season weren’t too shabby, to say the least. He also walks far fewer batters than Knebel, which should give him the edge in WHIP and could help him avoid trouble if/when his own high strand rate normalizes. There’s always the chance Hand gets dealt at the trade deadline and becomes a setup man somewhere else, but he’s less likely than Knebel to lose the job for performance reasons. Both pitchers have upside and risk, so they shouldn’t be separated by almost 50 spots in ADP.
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.