I’m generally a believer in factoring position scarcity into my draft day decision-making, but second base is a good example of a position that has far more depth than it did in years past.
It seems like almost every team in baseball has a 2B-eligible player that holds some fantasy intrigue, and some teams have more than one. A few of those guys are also eligible shortstops, which is a scarcer position, so they’ll likely be utilized there by most fantasy managers. But this is still a position that goes over 30 players deep with interesting options, which is pretty crazy to think about.
That’s not to say that the upper crust isn’t worth paying for. Jose Altuve has a decent argument to go No. 1 overall, while Jose Ramirez, Brian Dozier, and Dee Gordon offer a reliably high floor of elite production that you won’t find further down the rankings. And there are a few great upside picks after that. But if you miss out on those guys, you may want to wait until the late rounds to address the position rather than reach for the unremarkable players that are typically taken in the early-middle rounds.
As with my first baseman tiers, I’ve ordered players within the tiers based on how I rank them, but if two players are in the same tier, I think they are close enough in value that the difference largely comes down to personal preference. The tiers will also mirror the second base primer by using a 15-game eligibility threshold, meaning you won’t find some Yahoo-eligible second basemen like Anthony Rizzo and Matt Carpenter here.
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Tier One
The consensus number two overall pick in fantasy drafts this spring, Altuve has been the top second baseman in 5×5 roto leagues for four consecutive years, and it’s always been by a fairly large margin. But Altuve wasn’t just good for a middle infielder; he finished as a top-seven overall player in three of those four seasons. And while Jose Ramirez got closer to Altuve’s value last year in CBS point leagues, where high stolen base totals are less of a difference-maker, Altuve is still worthy of his own tier in those formats as well.
Altuve is an across-the-board producer in the prime of his career who will again enjoy the support of a terrific lineup. There’s really nothing not to like.
Tier Two
The aforementioned Ramirez was a good fantasy player who became a great one in 2017, boosting his home run total from 11 to 29 while maintaining his elite batting average and a healthy stolen base total. Now Ramirez is a true five-category monster who finished as a top-10 hitter in standard roto leagues last year and could easily do it again. In fact, Ramirez is just 25 years old, so further improvement is not completely out of the realm of possibility.
Dozier and Gordon aren’t the across-the-board producers that Altuve and Ramirez are, but they each pack enough punch in three-to-four categories to consistently finish as top-25 hitters in standard roto leagues. Yet they are both going about 5-10 picks later than that in fantasy drafts, which is a nice buying opportunity.
Dozier is probably being undervalued because of the way he gets his fantasy production. He is a very streaky player, as evidenced by his less-than-inspiring numbers at the All Star Break last year (.242-39-13-41-10). But the bottom line is that he’s been a top-five second baseman for four straight years, and both his power and batting average have trended upward over the past two seasons. Stay patient during his cold streaks and you’ll like the end result.
Gordon, on the other hand, is a bit less valuable in points leagues, so that may partially explain his ADP trailing his roto performance. But he is also likely undervalued because he gets unfairly looped into the “speed only” category. There’s a big difference between a true “speed only” player like Billy Hamilton, who is a drain on every roto category other than steals, and a player like Gordon, who regularly steals 60 bases but also hits around .300 with a healthy run total. As long as he keeps running, Gordon remains one of the safer bets at second base to accrue top-five roto value.
Tier Three
There is a lot of intriguing value to be found in this tier. I’ve already made the case that Odor is basically the same player as Dozier, but here’s a quick refresher. Odor hit 30 home runs and stole 15 bases last year, and he would have been right there with Dozier in fantasy value if a .224 BABIP hadn’t completely sunk his batting average. Look for Odor’s BABIP to return to a figure closer to his career mark, and for him to rebound with a .255-30-15 type of season.
Murphy is the player in this tier who scares me the most, but he’s simply been too good over that last couple years — a top-30 hitter in standard roto — to drop any further than this. Murphy had microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason, and is currently looking like a poor bet to be ready by Opening Day. But speed isn’t a part of Murphy’s fantasy game, and the Dodgers’ Justin Turner returned from the same surgery last year to have a great fantasy season. Although he’ll soon be turning 33, Murphy has yet to show any signs of decline on the field and will again be hitting in a fantastic lineup.
Merrifield is also something of a question mark following a season where he came out of nowhere at age 28 to deliver a .288 batting average with 19 home runs and 34 stolen bases. It’s probably fair to expect some modest regression in Merrifield’s average and home run total, but there’s no reason he can’t steal 30+ bases again if that’s what he and the Royals want to do. And double digit homers with 30+ steals from a middle infielder is nothing to sneeze at, particularly in roto leagues. Plus, Merrifield’s average shouldn’t actually fall too far if he’s able to come close to matching last season’s very solid 14 percent strikeout rate.
Albies and Nunez are far and away my favorite draft day values at second base.
Albies is the rare example of a top prospect who had a great start to his Major League career but is being undervalued by the fantasy community. He hit six home runs and stole eight bases in his first 57 Major League games, along with a solid .286 batting average that was supported by a 14.8 percent strikeout rate that is very impressive for a rookie. The projection systems expect Albies to hit 12-15 HRs with 20-25 SBs and a solid batting average, and while there’s always a bit of risk drafting a 21-year-old, there is also the chance that he blows past those projections.
I seem to be talking about my love for Nunez in just about every article these days, so why not one more? Over the last two seasons, he has averaged a .299 batting average, 14 home runs, and 32 stolen bases in 510 at-bats, and he’s slated to be the Red Sox starting second baseman on Opening Day. Sure, there are some questions about where he’ll play once Dustin Pedroia is healthy, but these things have a way of working themselves out, particularly when a guy can play all over the diamond. If Nunez hits like he has the last two seasons, he should find his way onto the lineup card with regularity, and the multi-position eligibility is an added bonus.
Tier Four
This is the tier of second baseman that I’ll generally pass over in drafts to address other positions — unless I can nab Kinsler late.
You’ll probably find Schoop higher than this on most ranking lists, but my money is on 2017 turning out to be a career year for the slugger. The power is legit and he could well hit 30 bombs again, but he doesn’t run and I expect significant regression to his .293 batting average, which was far higher than he’s produced since a 51-game stretch in A-ball in 2011. Schoop is also unlikely to again approach 200 combined runs and RBIs in an Orioles lineup with Manny Machado and a bunch of declining or unproven hitters. If he returns to his 2016 numbers — .267-82-25-82-1 — he’ll likely be outside the top-12 at the position.
Cano resembles Schoop, except that Cano should provide about five fewer home runs and 15-20 more points in batting average. Sure, it’s theoretically possible that he could summon his 2016 self, when he belted 39 home runs, but that sure looks like the outlier season of late-career Cano. Cano is a safe bet to finish as a mid-to-low end second baseman, but it’s hard to see much upside beyond that at this point of his career.
I liked LeMahieu a lot more back when he stole 23 bases in 2015. His stolen base total precipitously dropped to 11 in 2016, but he made up for it with an incredible .348 batting average that clearly wasn’t repeatable. Last year, we saw what LeMahieu has truly become: a two-category player who can hit .300 and score close to 100 runs, but do little else to help your fantasy team. That’s enough to make him a low-end starting option in 12-team mixed leagues, but it’s generally not worth paying for LeMahieu’s safe floor with little upside when there are so many good options available at the position.
Kinsler is a solid fallback option if you miss out on the top players at second base, and he’s often worth drafting as a middle infielder or backup even if you do get an elite guy. Kinsler struck out just 14 percent of the time in 2017, but he hit just .236 thanks to a dreadful .244 BABIP that was 42 points below his career mark. Like Odor, Kinsler contributed plenty of home runs (22) and stolen bases (14) even as he struggled in the batting average department. He’s a good bet to again hit around 20 HRs, steal 10-15 bases, and rebound substantially in batting average, all well hitting directly in front of Mike Trout.
Tier Five
- Javier Baez
- Ian Happ
- Jason Kipnis
- Chris Taylor
- Marwin Gonzalez
- Yoan Moncada
- Scooter Gennett
- Cesar Hernandez
These guys probably won’t be drafted as starters in most 12-team mixed leagues, but each has the upside to finish solidly in the top-12 at the position.
Both Cubs middle infielders offer an intriguing blend of power and speed, albeit with some strikeout and playing time issues. Happ is a good bet for 25 home runs and 10 steals, but he won’t improve his .253 batting average from last season unless he cuts down on his 31.2 percent strikeout rate. Baez probably has a little less pop than Happ but a bit more speed, and he should also hit for a better batting average than Happ thanks to a slightly lower strikeout rate and higher ground ball percentage. Both Cubs could put up starter-caliber numbers on a per-game basis, but the wildcard is playing time, as the Cubs have a crowded roster and Joe Maddon is known for constantly shuffling the lineup card.
Along with Happ, Kipnis has been one of the top performers in Spring Training, crushing six home runs and batting .471. Those numbers should obviously be taken with a grain of salt, but it is at least evidence that he’s healthy and seeing the ball well. Kipnis was a starting-caliber second baseman in 5×5 roto leagues in both 2015 and 2016 before struggling with injuries and poor results in 2017. Even in his lost season, Kipnis was on pace for 19 home runs and 10 steals over 600 plate appearances, and his BABIP was 58 points lower than his career mark, so expect some major improvement on his awful .232 batting average. Staying healthy remains a question mark, but if he’s able to do so, Kipnis could easily hit .270 with 20 homers and 10-15 steals, and he should score a lot of runs hitting second in a loaded Cleveland lineup.
Last year, Taylor had more value in 5×5 roto leagues than Odor, Nunez, Cano, and LeMahieu, among others, but this year he is a popular regression candidate. It’s easy to see why: Taylor had the highest batting average (.288) of any player who struck out in over 24 percent of his plate appearances, he had one of the highest BABIPs in baseball, and he had never hit double digit home runs at any professional level before he popped 21 balls over the fence in 2017. But Taylor did put up good batting averages in the minors, and even if his power regresses significantly, a .270-15-15 season is possible, which could be good enough to make him a low-end starter.
Gonzalez is another popular regression candidate following a season in which he hit .303 with 23 home runs and eight steals. Like Taylor and many other players, Gonzalez experienced a sudden power spike after never having topped 13 home runs prior to 2017. He’s also a .268 career hitter, and there isn’t much in his batted ball profile to suggest he’s suddenly transformed into a .300 hitter. Gonzalez did significantly improve his walk rate last season, so perhaps he’ll be able to hold on to some of the batting average gains, and he should continue to have good run production numbers on an excellent offense. Still, it’s hard to expect much more than a .275-20-8 type of season.
Like Gonzalez, Gennett is coming off a fantastic year where he hit .295 with 27 home runs in just 461 at-bats. Neither that home run rate nor batting average are likely sustainable given his high strikeout and HR/FB rates, but he could hit around .270 with 20 homers and a handful of steals.
Moncada is an elite talent who needs to be stashed in every league in case he has a massive breakout. A 20-20 season hardly feels like a stretch as long as he plays the full year at the Major League level, but the batting average won’t be pretty unless he makes more consistent contact.
Hernandez hasn’t shown the power output of the other players in this tier, but he’s now managed to put together back-to-back seasons with a .294 batting average, 5-10 homers, and 15-17 steals. While most projection systems expect some batting average regression, Hernandez’s high ground ball rate and solid walk rate are reasons for optimism. He should also score plenty of runs hitting atop an improving Phillies lineup. Hernandez is appealing because he won’t hurt you anywhere, but he’ll need to up his performance in either home runs or stolen bases to sneak into the top-12 at the position.
Tier Six
- Devon Travis
- Paul DeJong
- Tim Beckham
- Josh Harrison
- Jonathan Villar
- Jose Peraza
- Kolten Wong
- Jed Lowrie
- Neil Walker
- Logan Forsythe
- Brad Miller
This lengthy tier demonstrates how many interesting names there are at second base this year.
I’ve always had a soft spot for Travis, who has been an elite performer at times on a per-game basis but has never been able to stay healthy. To get a sense of his upside, just combine his 2015 and 2016 batting lines: .303-92-19-85-7 in 163 games. That alone makes him worth a stash early in the year to see what happens.
DeJong is another player who had a breakout 2017, batting .285 and hitting 25 home runs in just 417 at-bats. He is a lot like Gennett, in that he benefited from a high BABIP and HR/FB rate. But DeJong strikes out even more frequently than Gennett, which is what puts him in a lower tier.
Beckham had a bit of a breakout of his own, hitting .278 with 22 homers and six steals in 2017. But he’s yet another player that had a bloated BABIP and HR/FB rate, so expect to see some fairly significant regression, particularly in batting average.
Harrison is a lot like Hernandez in that he doesn’t excel in any particular category but also won’t hurt you anywhere. He’s unlikely to finish as a top-12 second baseman, but is a solid enough option in leagues that require a middle infielder.
Villar is just one year removed from a season where he was a top-15 overall player in 5×5 roto leagues, but that season never looked sustainable, and last year he came crashing down to earth. His strikeout rate should keep hit batting average under .250, but it’s easy to see him compiling 15 home runs and 30 steals.
Like Villar, Peraza was a much more popular choice at this time last year, but had a highly disappointing season. As I mentioned in the shortstop primer (where he’s also eligible), Peraza’s excellent contact skills suggest his batting average is due for some positive regression, but he won’t be worthy of starting in standard roto leagues (let alone points leagues) unless he runs a lot more than he did last year.
Wong is a former top prospect who could be a post-hype sleeper and should at least reach double digit home runs and steals if he plays regularly. Walker, Lowrie, Forsythe, and Miller are hardly exciting options, but they all have decent resumes. Walker and Forsythe both were top-10 fantasy second basemen in 5×5 roto leagues as recently as 2015, Miller was a top-15 option in 2016, and Lowrie was top-12 last year.
Tier Seven
Kingery and Mondesi will both likely begin the season in the minors, but they could become impact players if given the chance and are worth stashing in deeper leagues (and obviously in keeper leagues as well).
Kingery displayed exciting five category potential in the minors last season, but is currently blocked at the Major League level. Modesi was fantastic in Triple-A in 2017, but struggled in a cup of coffee for the Royals. His power and contact skills are both a bit behind Kingery’s, but Mondesi has a clearer path to a call-up.
First Basemen Rankings Tiers
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Relief Pitcher Rankings Tiers
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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.
