Tuesday night in the Association brings us a modest six-game slate with three games featuring a double-digit favorite (Hornets, Cavaliers, and Trail Blazers). There are also three teams playing the second game of a back-to-back which is coincidentally the three teams that are huge underdogs in those matchups (Bulls, Nets, and Kings). With so many question marks around the minutes and potential resting players in those games, it is probably not a surprise that only two of my recommendations for Tuesday come from those games.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $10,500 vs LAC
It was a very difficult call between Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo for my “One Stud” of the night. I lean toward Jokic, who has been absolutely ballin’ over his last four games with three triple-doubles while averaging 25.5 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game for 61.8 DraftKings point a night. He gets a plus matchup against the Clippers who have allowed the eighth most DK points to opposing big men this season and is playing in the game with the highest Vegas total and a narrow spread.
Tuesday night in the Association brings us a modest six-game slate with three games featuring a double-digit favorite (Hornets, Cavaliers, and Trail Blazers). There are also three teams playing the second game of a back-to-back which is coincidentally the three teams that are huge underdogs in those matchups (Bulls, Nets, and Kings). With so many question marks around the minutes and potential resting players in those games, it is probably not a surprise that only two of my recommendations for Tuesday come from those games.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
Nikola Jokic (C – DEN): $10,500 vs LAC
It was a very difficult call between Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo for my “One Stud” of the night. I lean toward Jokic, who has been absolutely ballin’ over his last four games with three triple-doubles while averaging 25.5 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game for 61.8 DraftKings point a night. He gets a plus matchup against the Clippers who have allowed the eighth most DK points to opposing big men this season and is playing in the game with the highest Vegas total and a narrow spread.
Core Plays
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $9,400 @ MIA
You’re probably not going to fit in both Jokic and Joel Embiid into your lineup, but if you want to pivot off Jokic for some salary savings to pay up somewhere else then give Embiid a long look. We all know that Embiid can blow up at any time, and he has been playing really well since the All-Star break with three straight double-doubles with at least 25 points and 10 rebounds in each game. With the Sixer clear of any back-to-back set, Embiid should get minutes approaching 35 in a key Eastern Conference playoff positioning game against the Heat.
Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG – MIL): $7,300 vs WAS
Eric Bledsoe has stepped up his game recently for the Bucks with at least 35 DK points in eight straight games. He only needs to keep that streak going to reach 5x his salary and in another key Eastern Conference playoff positioning game for the Bucks against the Wizards. Bledsoe should continue to log big minutes and fantasy production. Bledsoe has also fared well against the Wizards this season averaging 19.3 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 4.3 steals for 38.8 DK points over three previous meetings.
Lou Williams (PG/SG – LAC): $7,200 @ DEN
The DraftKings pricing algorithm must have a glitch when it comes to Lou Williams. His salary continues to hover around the $7,000 mark despite consistently producing 30+ DK points in 25 straight games. Yes, you read that right; 25 straight games with at least 30 DK points for Sweet Lou. As you can see he offers a very high floor and of course has big upside with four games of 59 or more DK points during that stretch. Tuesday night could be one of those upside nights in a favorable fast-paced game against the Nuggets.
Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $6,600 vs LAC
Take your pick of the Nuggets trio of guards between Jamal Murray, Will Barton ($7,100) and Gary Harris ($6,000) who are all similarly priced and each offer a great game environment and matchup against the Nuggets. I’ll give a slight edge to Murray who has a game of scoring and threes that fits nicely into the weakness of the Nuggets’ defense which has allowed the sixth most points and three-pointers per game to opposing PGs.
Value Plays
Buddy Hield (SG/SF – SAC): $5,300 @ POR
Buddy Hield has been a different player since the All-Star break playing at least 28 minutes in all three games while averaging 18.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.3 three-pointers per game. His salary has remained reasonable and his position flexibility (SG/SF) allows you to fit him into a lineup where ever he is needed.
Wilson Chandler (SF/PF – DEN): $5,200 vs LAC
You have probably heard the phrase, “minutes equal money” when it comes to playing NBA DFS, and Wilson Chandler is the perfect example of that phase on Tuesday’s slate. Chandler plays big minutes, averaging 36.3 over his last five games. When you have a player on the court for that many minutes in a fast-paced, high-scoring game like the Nuggets should be part of on Tuesday against the Clippers, he is bound to rack up some digits. He is capable of big games with three of his last five outings resulting in at least 37 DK points.
Jarrett Allen (PF/C – BRK): $4,700 @ CLE
Jarrett Allen has settled into a role, playing about 20-25 minutes a night. His elite athleticism allows him to capitalize on those minutes up and down the stat sheet with points, rebounds, and blocks. Over his last three games, he is averaging 12.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game. With the Nets playing the second game of a back-to-back and as a big underdog, Allen’s young legs could get a little extra run against the Cavaliers.
Jabari Parker (SF/PF – MIL): $4,300 vs WAS
Jabari Parker is starting to see his minutes creep into the mid-20s, playing 24 minutes in his last game while having his best outing of the season with 18 points and six rebounds against the Pelicans. Parker’s salary is still depressed due to his lack of minutes since returning from injury, but as his minutes rise and his salary doesn’t there’s opportunity to take advantage of the value for a good player.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.