Dynasty leagues represent both the very best and the very worst of the fantasy football experience. On the one hand, you’re engaged all year round, trying to improve your team throughout the offseason from every potential angle. On the other hand, the consequences of a wrong move could lead not just to one season going down the tubes, but several.
There are many strategies you can employ when building a dynasty franchise in fantasy football, and Kyle Richardson has already taught you about buying low. Today, we’re going to talk about a strategy that I often use, especially when I need to rebuild my franchise: selling veterans.
A common mistake among newer dynasty players is building a team that looks like a powerhouse in a redraft league because it is full of established, veteran players. Certainly, these players are essential to the success of every dynasty franchise in any given year.
But the key in a dynasty league is always to not only set yourself up to be competitive in the upcoming season but also to establish the building blocks for success in future years. Treating your team like you’re playing in a redraft league might give you a great shot at a championship now, but you’re likely going to need to make some moves to have sustained success.
When you find yourself in the position of having a murky outlook in the immediate future, it may be time to unload some of your veterans and build the core of your team with younger players who should be coming into their own over the next two or three years. So, let’s walk through four types of veteran players you may want to consider moving in your dynasty league.
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The “Not Going to be Around Forever” Veteran
It’s certainly easy to think about moving veterans who have begun their inevitable decline into old-agedom (old-ageness? old-ageity?). But you’re probably not going to move very far down the path to a championship by moving those players, who will bring in modest returns, at best.
If you’re set on going into a rebuild, the perfect player to move is the aging veteran who is still playing well, but who you know is likely to retire in the immediate future. This is perhaps the most challenging trigger to pull because you’re almost definitely giving up a player who would help you significantly next season. But because the chances of that player helping you two or three seasons from now are slim to none, you need to consider making your move.
Take Larry Fitzgerald. He just capped off another top-10 finish at the wide receiver position and looks ready to return for another season.
But there’s uncertainty abound with Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer leaving. Even with another successful season, the soon-to-be 35-year-old Fitzgerald will likely call it a career after next year, and your absolute best-case scenario is probably another two years of production.
If one of your league-mates is ready to contend for the championship in 2018, Fitzgerald could be the move to get him over the top. But if you’re in a position of needing to revive your franchise’s long-term outlook, moving Fitzgerald for draft picks or younger wide receivers who may need another year or two of seasoning before they hit their stride is the right move.
The “I’ll Lose Significant Value with a Bad Year” Veteran
Like any investment, you’re looking to sell players in a dynasty league when they’ve hit their peak value. But even if their value is not quite the best it’s ever been, you need to make sure that you’re trading players who are at risk of losing significant value if they take a drop in performance the following year.
Take Dez Bryant coming into the 2017 season. Yes, he was coming off two injury-plagued years in a row, but coming into the 2017 season in redraft leagues, he was still viewed as a borderline WR1. Although he stayed healthy this season, his long-term value took a significant nosedive, as his consistent inability to get separation from opposing cornerbacks suggested that his downward trend is for real.
If you were a Bryant owner in a dynasty league after 2016, your thought process should’ve been, “How much will his value fall after this season if he has another down or injury-plagued year?” The answer, as you see and should have seen at the time, is drastically. In those circumstances where a veteran player currently has a robust market perception but would lose significant value if he has even a single down year, the time is right to move.
As always, your goal is not only to think about whether a player can help you win this year, it’s about whether you project him to still be able to help you to a championship a few seasons down the road. And even if you do, you should always analyze whether the risk of a loss of value is significant in the immediate future.
The Productive Veteran with Iffy Surrounding Circumstances
In my opinion, this player represents your best chance of maximizing a veteran player’s value. Rather than dealing a player who you know will be out of the game soon or who is at risk of taking a significant hit in value, this involves selling a veteran who is still playing at a high level and who may continue to do so. But there are enough warning signs in the surrounding circumstances to suggest that this player’s long-term future may be murky.
Take Golden Tate. He’s coming off his fourth-straight season of playing every game, tallying at least 90 receptions, 122 targets, and four touchdowns.
He topped 1,000 yards receiving for the third time in four seasons with the Lions, finished 19th at the wide receiver position in fantasy, and is just 29 years old. On the surface, there’s nothing to suggest that this is a player who should be moved in a dynasty league.
But there are warning signs abound for Tate’s future if you consider his surrounding circumstances. Matthew Stafford ranked in the top-10 in pass attempts in each of the last four seasons under Jim Caldwell, and Tate’s value has been primarily due to that volume, as he is rarely targeted downfield.
But the Lions are replacing Caldwell with a defensive-minded coach in Matt Patricia, and you can expect them to likely change to a more conservative and run-heavy offense. Kenny Golladay looks like a breakout candidate next year and, even if Tate somehow keeps up his production in the final year of his contract next season, there’s no telling where he’ll end up after that.
Sure, Tate could wind up with an incredibly productive season next year and land in a dynamic passing offense in 2019. But right now, he’s viewed as a reliable sure-thing when in reality, there are question marks all over the place regarding his long-term future. If you float Tate in a deal, chances are you’ll find plenty of takers, which will allow you to reboot your team and get younger while shedding risk.
The 29-Year-Old Running Back Veteran
I remember when I was younger and watching Curtis Martin put up career-best marks in his age-31 season. I recall how commentators harped on his age like he was an octogenarian running a three-hour marathon.
It was rare, they said, for running backs to remain productive past age 28 or 29. And although that sounded ancient to me at the time, I realize now how absurd it is that an athlete could be considered past his prime at such a young age.
But alas, that adage still holds true, even as athletes become more and more conditioned through advancements in training regimens and the like. Yes, the Frank Gores of the world still exist, but for the most part, it’s rare to see a running back continue to be productive once they hit the big 3-0.
And the problem is, the end usually comes quickly for aging running backs. In his age-31 season, Martin rushed for 1,697 yards with 12 touchdowns. In his injury-plagued age-32 season, he rushed for 735 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 3.3 yards per carry. He retired the following year.
Martin’s path, though it lasted a bit longer than most, is typical. Shaun Alexander followed up his age-28 season, in which he rushed for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns, by rushing for 896 yards and seven touchdowns. He was out of the game soon after that.
Edgerrin James rushed for 1,222 yards and seven touchdowns in his age-29 season, his fifth-straight 1,000-yard campaign. He rushed for 514 yards the following year, and his career was over.
LeSean McCoy has had an outstanding career and has been a fantasy stud wherever he’s played. And although his 2017 numbers weren’t quite as productive as his 2016 season, he still finished as the seventh-ranked running back in fantasy. McCoy wants to – and may – play for several more seasons.
But he’ll be 30 years old at the start of next season. Someone in your league who feels he or she is close to a championship will probably pay big for a stud running back like McCoy. Although it may hurt, he’s precisely the type of player to move in a dynasty league.
In the end, a successful dynasty franchise finds the perfect blend of young up-and-comers and reliable veterans. But your eyes should always be on the long-term and sustained health of your team. Identifying the right veteran player to move and maximizing your return is critical to fielding a consistently competitive franchise.
Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter at @danharris80.