I will be upfront about the suggested FanDuel lineup below, and I fully expect it to change between now and lineup lock. Good thing that lineup lock is an hour later than usual on Monday at 8 PM (EST) so that we can, hopefully, get all the late-scratches and starting lineups before making our final lineup decisions.
The two key players that I want to track closely regarding their status are Paul George and Al Horford. My sample lineup below assumes that George plays his typical minutes and that Horford gets the day off in the second game of a back-to-back after a possible knee injury on Sunday.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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Point Guard
Damian Lillard (POR): $9,300 @ GS
When I ran the numbers for the Blazers’ usage adjustments when Jusuf Nurkic is off the court, I didn’t expect to see such a large increase for Damian Lillard, but that is what he has with a huge 9.6% increase. Also working in Lillard’s favor is his recent play with at least 46 FanDuel points in each of his last three games and the absence of Steph Curry defending him. Lillard could be looked upon to single-handedly keep the Blazers in the game, which he is capable of doing.
I will be upfront about the suggested FanDuel lineup below, and I fully expect it to change between now and lineup lock. Good thing that lineup lock is an hour later than usual on Monday at 8 PM (EST) so that we can, hopefully, get all the late-scratches and starting lineups before making our final lineup decisions.
The two key players that I want to track closely regarding their status are Paul George and Al Horford. My sample lineup below assumes that George plays his typical minutes and that Horford gets the day off in the second game of a back-to-back after a possible knee injury on Sunday.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create FanDuel lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Point Guard
Damian Lillard (POR): $9,300 @ GS
When I ran the numbers for the Blazers’ usage adjustments when Jusuf Nurkic is off the court, I didn’t expect to see such a large increase for Damian Lillard, but that is what he has with a huge 9.6% increase. Also working in Lillard’s favor is his recent play with at least 46 FanDuel points in each of his last three games and the absence of Steph Curry defending him. Lillard could be looked upon to single-handedly keep the Blazers in the game, which he is capable of doing.
Rajon Rondo (NO): $5,600 @ HOU
I’m not in love with this Rajon Rondo selection given the difficult matchup he has against Chris Paul. However, on a slate where we need to find some value, Rondo should still be able to reach at least 5x his $5,600 salary (28 FD points) even in a tough matchup. Rondo has posted at least 26 FanDuel points in his last five games and is coming off a huge game against the Sixers (57.4 FD points).
Shooting Guard
James Harden (HOU): $11,800 vs. NO
In the high-priced superstar pecking order for Monday’s slate, I will put James Harden at the top, followed closely by Kevin Durant. The Rockets/Pelicans matchup has the highest Vegas total by a wide margin on the six-game slate, and the Pelicans have been destroyed by opposing SGs, allowing increased production in points by 11.3%. For a player like Harden who is coming off a 48-point outing that could mean he goes for a 50-burger on Monday.
Eric Gordon (HOU): $4,700 vs. NO
Eric Gordon’s production has dropped significantly since Chris Paul returned from injury. Fortunately, his salary has also decreased considerably to match his current level of production.
Like I just mentioned in my Harden analysis, Gordon is in a similar spot where he should see a bump in his scoring which fits right into his game. The Pelicans have allowed the fifth highest three-point percentage to opposing SGs over the last five games.
Small Forward
Paul George (OKC): $7,800 vs. CHA
I hope that Paul George suits up for the Thunder on Monday and reports come out that he will get his usual minutes. If George is ruled out or will be on a minute’s restriction, then I will likely be forced to pay up for Kevin Durant at a very weak SF position, which will blow up this lineup. Assuming George can play, he comes into a great matchup against the Hornets who have allowed increased production in points (+10.2%) and rebounds (+15.1%) to opposing SFs.
Trevor Ariza (HOU): $5,400 vs. NO
The SF position is a disaster on Monday’s slate other than Durant and George. So, since we need to roster two on FanDuel, then we will need to pay down for the second option.
Trevor Ariza feels like the best bet to at least hit value while still having some upside playing in the game with the highest Vegas total against a Pelicans’ team that has allowed a small uptick in production across the board in points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. Hopefully, Ariza can contribute in all of those categories to compile a strong fantasy day.
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum (BOS): $6,300 @ CHI
Jayson Tatum has had a great rookie season so far and has been fairly consistent for a rookie. He should see a slight bump in minutes, and usage with Marcus Morris already ruled out on Monday.
He could see a bigger increase (+5.9%) if Al Horford joins him in street clothes. The matchup with the Bulls is also a favorable one for opposing PFs as they have allowed an uptick in production in points (+6.3%), rebounds (+6.3%) and assists (+9.9%).
Serge Ibaka (TOR): $5,500 @ LAC
Serge Ibaka has finally started to show something this season with four straight games over 28 FanDuel points. His depressed salary makes him a solid value option at a PF position where I think it makes sense to save some salary on this slate.
He will face a Clippers’ team that will be without Blake Griffin on the other side to defend him, leaving them with a less physical presence to contain him. Another PF option that interests me around this price range is James Johnson ($5,800).
Center
Aron Baynes (BOS): $3,500 @ CHI
Aron Baynes is the ultimate salary saver on the slate if Al Horford sits out Monday’s game. Much like Tatum, Baynes will see an increase in minutes with Morris out but will reach his peak value and potential if Horford misses the game.
Baynes played 26 minutes in the previous game (when Horford was playing) and posted a strong line of six points and 13 rebounds. Another 25-plus minutes on Monday against the Bulls should produce a similar stat line.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.