The primary question you need to ask yourself for Saturday night’s five-game NBA DFS slate is, how many Nuggets is too many Nuggets to put in one lineup? For me, the answer is “six.” Six is too many. Five, however, is just right. With Nikola Jokic out and Paul Millsap still out, there should be plenty of minutes and fantasy production to go around in a favorable matchup with the Lakers. That should take care of the value options, but who will be the “one stud” of the night?
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
DeMarcus Cousins (C – NO): $10,400 @ POR
I was debating who the “one stud” of the night would be until I saw Anthony Davis go down with a groin injury in the fourth quarter of Friday night’s game. This automatically pushed Cousins to the top of the list. Cousins has seen a 3.4% increase in his Usage Rate with Davis off the court this season. Davis has only missed one game this season and in that game Cousins put up 83.8 DraftKings points. Granted, that also coincided with a revenge spot against the Kings, but you get the idea.
The primary question you need to ask yourself for Saturday night’s five-game NBA DFS slate is, how many Nuggets is too many Nuggets to put in one lineup? For me, the answer is “six.” Six is too many. Five, however, is just right. With Nikola Jokic out and Paul Millsap still out, there should be plenty of minutes and fantasy production to go around in a favorable matchup with the Lakers. That should take care of the value options, but who will be the “one stud” of the night?
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
DeMarcus Cousins (C – NO): $10,400 @ POR
I was debating who the “one stud” of the night would be until I saw Anthony Davis go down with a groin injury in the fourth quarter of Friday night’s game. This automatically pushed Cousins to the top of the list. Cousins has seen a 3.4% increase in his Usage Rate with Davis off the court this season. Davis has only missed one game this season and in that game Cousins put up 83.8 DraftKings points. Granted, that also coincided with a revenge spot against the Kings, but you get the idea.
Core Plays
Eric Bledsoe (PG/SG – MIL): $7,100 vs SAC
Bledsoe has fit in nicely with the Bucks averaging 16.7 points, 5.0 assists, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.1 steals over his first 10 games. He has been even better over his last five games averaging over 40 DK points per game including a 42.25 score against the Kings just four days ago in Sacramento in just 24 minutes. Another blowout could be on the horizon for the Bucks, but Bledsoe will still put up solid numbers along the way. If the game stays close, look out!
Will Barton (SG/SF – DEN): $6,800 vs LAL
Now it is time for the Nuggets/Lakers portion of the show as the rest of the recommendation all come from that matchup. Every player on the Nuggets gets a usage boost with Jokic out of the lineup, but the bigger jump for Barton (and Gary Harris below) comes if Wilson Chandler (questionable) also misses his third straight game with a back injury. Barton will be the Nuggets’ primary scorer with Jokic out even if he comes off the bench. He posted 37 points in the previous game and now faces a Lakers team that has allowed the second-most DK points per game to opposing SFs.
Gary Harris (SG – DEN): $5,800 vs LAL
Sticking with the Nuggets wing players brings us to Gary Harris who should be a cash game staple on Saturday night. While Barton can have wild swings up and down from night-to-night, Harris is the steady force in the offense scoring at least 13 points in seven straight games including a 21-point effort for 39.25 DK points on Tuesday. He also gets a boost in usage if Chandler remains out which would also make him worth playing in GPPs.
Brandon Ingram (SG/SF – LAL): $6,300 @ DEN
I haven’t forgotten about the Lakers side of the court in a game that doesn’t have a Vegas line yet but I expect it to be the highest total of the five-game night slate. I have interest in both Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball in the mid-priced range. Ingram is coming off a career-high 32 points against the Warriors on his way to 50.25 DK points. He might need another overtime game to get to those numbers, but he has scored at least 17 points in five of his last seven games and appears to be gaining a consistent floor with upside.
Value Plays
Jordan Clarkson (PG/SG – LAL): $4,900 @ DEN
The value section is also all about the Lakers and Nuggets, starting off with Jordan Clarkson. I mention that I also like Ball, but you can get Clarkson at a reduced price and he has the potential to post better numbers than Ball despite coming off the bench and playing fewer minutes. The Nuggets have allowed the third most DK points per game to opposing PGs this season including the second most points scored which is Clarkson’s specialty.
Jamal Murray (PG/SG – DEN): $4,900 vs LAL
The inexpensive Nuggets will bring us through the rest of the value options. Guess which team has allowed the most DK points per game to opposing PGs? Yep, you got it; the Lakers. So, while Murray seems to disappoint more often than he pleases fantasy players, he does have big-game upside if he can get hot with his shot. The Lakers have allowed the fifth most three-pointers to opposing PGs so this could be the night. I prefer Clarkson in cash games, but you can run either of them out in GPPs at the same salary.
Kenneth Faried (PF/C – DEN): $4,800 vs LAL
This finally brings us to the two players that benefit the most directly from the Jokic injury. Faried has already been playing about 25 minutes a game with Paul Millsap out but could see a few extra minutes go his way without Jokic as well. He has come on over his last three games averaging 13.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per game and now he gets the best matchup during that stretch against the Lakers who have allowed the most DK points per game to the PF position.
Mason Plumlee (PF/C – DEN): $3,800 vs LAL
Plumlee is expected to jump into the starting lineup with Jokic out which should increase his minutes into at least the mid-20s. He did play 30 minutes against the Lakers earlier this season and posted 10 points, four rebounds, and four blocks for 26.5 DK points. Look for a similar line with a few more rebounds on Saturday which is plenty to reach at least 7x his salary.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.