Saturday night features an eight-game slate of NBA action that includes the majority of the teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back including one team (Thunder) coming off a three-overtime game on Friday. It is easier to list the five teams that are not playing the second game of a back-to-back (Knicks, Suns, Timberwolves, Mavericks, and Cavaliers). However, the Cavaliers are in the first game of a back-to-back so LeBron James could also have his minutes cut short if the Cavs have a big lead against the Jazz (likely).
With all of the teams and high-priced studs working on a back-to-back, my lineup construction is taking on more of a high-priced value, low-priced value look. So, the recommendations below will omit the usual “One Stud” and focus on four Core Plays and a handful of Value Plays for teams that are playing short-handed.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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Core Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $9,600 vs PHO
My core plays for Saturday night are headlined by a pair of Timberwolves who are not playing on a back-to-back and have a very favorable matchup against the Suns. Karl-Anthony Towns has been dominant over the last four games with at least 53 DraftKings points in each outing while averaging 24.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.0 blocks and 2.5 steals per game. The Suns have a variety of big men but are still allowing the sixth most DK points per game to opposing centers.
Saturday night features an eight-game slate of NBA action that includes the majority of the teams playing on the second night of a back-to-back including one team (Thunder) coming off a three-overtime game on Friday. It is easier to list the five teams that are not playing the second game of a back-to-back (Knicks, Suns, Timberwolves, Mavericks, and Cavaliers). However, the Cavaliers are in the first game of a back-to-back so LeBron James could also have his minutes cut short if the Cavs have a big lead against the Jazz (likely).
With all of the teams and high-priced studs working on a back-to-back, my lineup construction is taking on more of a high-priced value, low-priced value look. So, the recommendations below will omit the usual “One Stud” and focus on four Core Plays and a handful of Value Plays for teams that are playing short-handed.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Core Plays
Karl-Anthony Towns (C – MIN): $9,600 vs PHO
My core plays for Saturday night are headlined by a pair of Timberwolves who are not playing on a back-to-back and have a very favorable matchup against the Suns. Karl-Anthony Towns has been dominant over the last four games with at least 53 DraftKings points in each outing while averaging 24.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.0 blocks and 2.5 steals per game. The Suns have a variety of big men but are still allowing the sixth most DK points per game to opposing centers.
Jimmy Butler (SG – MIN): $9,000 vs PHO
Jimmy Butler is a great pairing with Towns as he has also elevated his production recently topping 40 DK points in each of his last seven games. The Suns have allowed the fourth most DK points to opposing SGs this season and while the Vegas line may show that the Timberwolves as a big favorite, the core players usually play big minutes regardless, especially when they aren’t involved in a back-to-back. Look for the Wolves dynamic duo to howl on Saturday night.
Chris Paul (PG/SG – HOU): $8,600 vs MIL
Chris Paul is really starting to find his groove with the Rockets and is meshing nicely with James Harden. Paul has consistently stuffed the stat sheet over the last five games with at least 43 DK points in each of his last five games and has pushed into the 60s in each of his last two games. Paul is working on the second game of a back-to-back but with both games at home and with Saturday’s game coming in as the highest Vegas total (222) of the night with the Bucks coming to town.
LaMarcus Aldridge (PF/C – SA): $8,000 vs DAL
The Spurs have welcomed Kawhi Leonard back into the mix this past week but he will get a day off on with the Spurs playing the second game of a back-to-back against the Mavericks on Saturday. With Leonard off the court, Aldridge will see the same usage bump that he enjoyed over the beginning of the season. He should also be fresh, totaling only 27 minutes on Friday night. Aldridge has also had a lot of success against the Mavericks in three previous meeting this season averaging 29.3 points and 9.3 board on his way to 50.8 DK points per game.
Value Plays
Rodney Hood (SG/SF – UTH): $5,300 / Jonas Jerebko (SF/PF – UTH): $3,500 / Ekpe Udoh (PF/C – UTH): $3,000 / Thabo Sefolosha (SG/SF – UTH): $3,600 @ CLE
The Jazz are likely without both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors due to injuries sustained on Friday night which will open up a lot of minutes and fantasy value for the remaining pieces of the Jazz frontcourt. Rodney Hood will get a big usage increase (+11.9%) while the Jazz big men, Jerebko, Udoh, and Sefolosha will all see an increase in minutes into the mid-20s which should allow them to exceed 5x their low salaries and allow you to fit in numerous high-priced options into your DFS lineup.
Milos Teodosic (PG/SG – LAC): $4,700 / Jawun Evans (PG – LAC): $3,200 @ MIA
The other situation where a team is shorthanded is with the Clippers in their matchup with the Heat. With Austin Rivers, Blake Griffin and Patrick Beverley out and Danilo Gallinari questionable there should be plenty of minutes and fantasy production open for Milos Teodosic and Jawun Evans. Teodosic got a day off on Friday so he should be rested to play at least 25 minutes and stuff the stat sheet on Saturday. Meanwhile, Evans flashed his potential on Friday night playing 40 minutes while putting up 15 points, six rebounds, and six assists and comes in at the low-low price of just $3,200.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot.
