Happy Friday again, and it’s the last Friday before Christmas, so hopefully everyone is either off work today, or at least mentally checked out to the point where you might as well not even be there. If you’ve decided it’s a good day to play some NBA DFS, you’ve come to the right place; let’s try to make sense of this tough nine-game slate. As always, but particularly today, be mindful of late injury news, as there is almost certainly going to be some late value opening up that you won’t want to miss out on.
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Guards
James Harden (HOU): $11,500 vs. LAC
Harden is my favorite high-priced stud tonight (although with Chris Paul already ruled out tonight, he’s likely going to be the highest-owned high-priced stud tonight, so it’s definitely worth considering the Russell Westbrook pivot for GPPs) for cash. As long as this game stays relatively close (and possibly even if it doesn’t; D’Antoni inexplicably loves playing his starters max minutes even in blowout situations), Harden should play high-30s minutes against a team that has nobody that can defend him. At his price, we need him to score 55-60 DK points, and I think that’s well within the range of possible outcomes tonight.
Happy Friday again, and it’s the last Friday before Christmas, so hopefully everyone is either off work today, or at least mentally checked out to the point where you might as well not even be there. If you’ve decided it’s a good day to play some NBA DFS, you’ve come to the right place; let’s try to make sense of this tough nine-game slate. As always, but particularly today, be mindful of late injury news, as there is almost certainly going to be some late value opening up that you won’t want to miss out on.
Create DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
Guards
James Harden (HOU): $11,500 vs. LAC
Harden is my favorite high-priced stud tonight (although with Chris Paul already ruled out tonight, he’s likely going to be the highest-owned high-priced stud tonight, so it’s definitely worth considering the Russell Westbrook pivot for GPPs) for cash. As long as this game stays relatively close (and possibly even if it doesn’t; D’Antoni inexplicably loves playing his starters max minutes even in blowout situations), Harden should play high-30s minutes against a team that has nobody that can defend him. At his price, we need him to score 55-60 DK points, and I think that’s well within the range of possible outcomes tonight.
John Wall (WAS): $8,700 @ BKN
A presumably healthy John Wall in a pace-up spot against a bad Brooklyn defense? Yes, please. Wall has played 27-33 minutes in the four games since returning from injury, and he should fall into that same range tonight. He’s scored 43.50 DK points in his last two games, and in a pace-up spot tonight I’d project him slightly higher, in the 45-48 DK point range, which is fine for cash and viable for GPPs as well.
Shabazz Napier (POR): $4,300 vs. DEN
This is a riskier pick, but if we want to jam in a couple studs tonight, we’re going to have to pay down at multiple positions. Napier is going to be chalk tonight, but that doesn’t mean he’s not worth rostering, especially in cash games. With Damien Lillard out tonight, I expect Napier to play around 30 minutes out of necessity, and in that amount of time, he should be able to get to 22-28 DK points, which more than pays off his price. Again, he’s not the safest play, but given the Lillard news, I think he’s worth the risk in order to pay up for a couple studs.
Forwards
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (BKN): $6,000 vs. WAS
RHJ has been one of my favorite players to roster for cash, since he fairly consistently scores in the high-20 to low-30 DK point range. He’s likely going to play 30+ minutes, and I’d project him for 30-33 DK points tonight, which is enough to hit value. The issue with RHJ is that he doesn’t have a high ceiling, but he remains my favorite mid-priced forward on the slate tonight for cash.
Al-Farouq Aminu (POR): $4,700 vs. DEN
We need to pay down somewhere, and in my build, forward seems like the position to pay down at today. Aminu has been inconsistent, there’s no doubt about that, but tonight he’s in a pace-up spot against Denver, and I think it’s reasonable to expect him to play 30-35 minutes tonight. I need a couple guys in the $4k-$5k range tonight in order to squeeze in a couple studs, and I love $4k guys who are going to play 30+ minutes. Aminu can get there off of peripheral stats alone, with a little scoring upside. He’s not the safest play on the board, but I think he’s viable in cash and GPP lineups, although I’d favor him for cash.
P.J. Tucker (HOU): $4,400 vs. LAC
Tucker is cheap, he’s likely going to play 30+ minutes (he’s gone over 30 minutes in his last three games), and Houston is playing the Clippers. That’s pretty much all you need to know. Tucker has scored 27, 18.75, and 30 DK points in his last three games, and we really only need him to get 20-25 DK points to hit value tonight. Provided he plays 30+ minutes, he should be able to get there.
Centers
Anthony Davis (NOP): $10,500 @ ORL
Anthony Davis is never my favorite play because of the in-game injury risk, but I have no idea who on the Magic roster is going to defend him. This seems like a prime spot for Brow to absolutely go off, and while I prefer Harden as my high-priced stud for cash, I think Brow is my favorite high-priced guy for GPPs. I honestly think he has 60+ point upside tonight. Brow is also eligible to play PF, if that works better for your roster build.
Nikola Jokic (DEN): $7,400 @ POR
Jokic was terrible on Wednesday night, turning the ball over 10 times and disappointing fantasy owners everywhere. Fortunately, that turnover rate is an anomaly, and I expect Joker to rebound nicely tonight against a team that struggles against centers in a pace-up spot. Jokic only needs 35 DK points to hit value, and we know he has 50+ DK point upside. I think he’s viable in all formats tonight.
YOLO Pick of the Night:
Tonight, I want to YOLO with a guy who I can’t stand watching in real life. A coach’s son. Do you need more hints? Ok, fine, it’s Austin Rivers (LAC): $5,600 @ HOU. If you think that the Clippers stand a chance of keeping the game close against Houston, it’s going to be because of Austin Rivers and Lou Williams. Rivers is cheaper, and we know he’s going to play 30+ minutes because they simply don’t have any other good guard options. Fire him up at your own risk tonight, he might just be the early Christmas gift you never knew you wanted. It’s equally possible that he will be the early Christmas gift you try to return immediately, only to realize you can only get store credit.
Merry Christmas!
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Jason Biggins is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Jason, check out his archive and follow him @biggsportsfan.
