It’s the weekend and while many are prepping their NFL lineups, I am breaking down the seven-game NBA slate for Saturday night. The slate seems pretty straightforward, you will want to get exposure to the Warriors/Sixers matchup that has the highest Vegas total by far. The other opportunities to take advantage of stem from injuries to key players resulting in increased playing time and usage for the players that remain.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
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One Stud
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,000 vs GS
I don’t think that Embiid will duplicate his 90.75 DraftKings effort in his last game but then again, he might. The other high-priced stud options James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo both have supporting cast players that have joined the fold with Chris Paul and Eric Bledsoe who will both siphon off some production from the superstars. Meanwhile, Embiid faces a Warriors interior defense that has nobody to stop him as they have allowed the most points and eighth most rebounds to opposing centers this season.
It’s the weekend and while many are prepping their NFL lineups, I am breaking down the seven-game NBA slate for Saturday night. The slate seems pretty straightforward, you will want to get exposure to the Warriors/Sixers matchup that has the highest Vegas total by far. The other opportunities to take advantage of stem from injuries to key players resulting in increased playing time and usage for the players that remain.
Note that some of the stats referenced in this article are my custom DvP calculations that combine both season and last five games data along with blending similar positions production allowed together.
Create Optimal DraftKings lineups using our DFS Lineup Optimizer tool
One Stud
Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,000 vs GS
I don’t think that Embiid will duplicate his 90.75 DraftKings effort in his last game but then again, he might. The other high-priced stud options James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo both have supporting cast players that have joined the fold with Chris Paul and Eric Bledsoe who will both siphon off some production from the superstars. Meanwhile, Embiid faces a Warriors interior defense that has nobody to stop him as they have allowed the most points and eighth most rebounds to opposing centers this season.
Core Plays
Stephen Curry (PG/SG – GS): $9,100 @ PHI
On the Warriors side, I want exposure on the perimeter. Curry put up a dud against the Celtics while facing a very good defense on a bum leg (thigh). He has had a day of rest and gets a much easier matchup on Saturday against the Sixers who allow a high volume of shots from the outside by opposing PGs. They may limit opposing teams’ field goal percentage but they haven’t met Curry yet.
Klay Thompson (SG – GS): $6,900 @ PHI
It might be difficult to fit in both Curry and Thompson so if you can’t make it work out with Curry then take a great consolation prize and roster Thompson at a discount with a similarly good matchup and volume on the outside as Curry.
Tyreke Evans (SG/SF – MEM): $7,000 vs HOU
Evans has seen a spike in his production over the last few weeks and gets an additional bump in usage with the loss of Mike Conley from the Grizzlies lineup. The ball will be in Evans’ hands more often which resulted in a season-high nine assists in this last game.
Donovan Mitchell (PG/SG – UTH): $6,700 @ ORL
Time for the Utah Jazz portion of the article. With Ricky Rubio and Rudy Gobert out of the lineup, there is plenty of minutes and usage to go around with the remaining players. Mitchell will be the biggest beneficiary with a 5.6% usage increase. The Jazz are playing in the second game of a back-to-back but Mitchell should still play around 35 minutes and get plenty of shots.
Value Plays
Rodney Hood (SG/SF – UTH): $5,500 @ ORL
Hood didn’t have his best fantasy game on Friday with an empty 17 points but you have to like the 36 minutes of playing time he received. Hood is capable of posting a 30-point game as he did on Wednesday and if he can chip in a few more rebounds, assists and steals he will be on his way to crush value at a very reasonable price.
Raul Neto (PG – UTH): $3,000 @ ORL
Neto will complete the Jazz trio, sounds like a band, at a bare minimum salary of $3,000. He played 20 minutes on Friday and scored a season-high 22 points. He might not be able to put up that many points again on Saturday but he could scores half as many points on Saturday and still reach seven times his dirt cheap salary.
Marcus Morris (SF/PF – BOS): $4,800 @ ATL
With so many plays solid plays at the guard positions, I’m looking for some solid production from some value play forwards to round out my lineups. Morris has been playing around 25 minutes a game since returning from injury and has steadily produced about a fantasy point per minute. Morris might have a little upside to add to his solid points and rebounds against a Hawks’ team that has allowed increased production to opposing PFs in assists (+10.7%) and steals (+5.0%).
Dillon Brooks (SG/SF – MEM): $4,200 @ HOU
Brooks is a “glue guy” that does all of the little things that can help out an NBA team and also a fantasy team. He gets a favorable matchup on Saturday in an up-tempo game against the Rockets that gives up increased production to wing players allowing more points, rebounds and assists.
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Brad Richter is a correspondent at FantasyPros and a contributor at DailyOverlay and GoingFor2. For more from Brad, you can view his archive or follow him @RotoPilot
