On one hand, the quarterback is a fairly unimportant position in fantasy football. The way the position is scored provides a high floor, but also a low ceiling. Too often, the difference between two quarterbacks with double-digit separation in their ranking is only a handful of fantasy points.
Look at last week, when Tom Brady ranked eighth with 16.2 fantasy points, and Matt Ryan ranked 18th with 11.9. This is ironic, of course, considering how vital the position is in the league.
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But then we have weeks like this past one, where a few big names go down, and suddenly we’re all scrambling to rearrange our rosters. Suddenly, the fantasy implications return to the forefront. Aaron Rodgers is likely done for the season, which is obviously terrible news not just for him, his team, and his fans, but also for fantasy players.
It’s not just Rodgers’ owners who are in trouble – what does this mean for the run game? Is Jordy Nelson still an elite receiving option with Brett Hundley under center? Ryan Fitzpatrick came in for Jameis Winston, and he made it work.
Does this change anything, or was his success the result of garbage time? Case Keenum has been a worthy replacement for Sam Bradford, who might never play again, and Teddy Bridgewater is eyeing a return. Which QB is ideal for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs?
And that’s the question we ask, perhaps too frequently: what’s ideal for my players? This isn’t something I point out to patronize anyone; we end up rooting for our own interests out of habit, even if we fully understand that it’s a little bit selfish. But sometimes throughout the course of playing fantasy football, we forget just how much is out of our control.
It doesn’t matter what we want to happen. The only thing we can do is react accordingly to the events that unfold.
Overvalued
Jameis Winston (TB): ECR – 9 / Finished – INJ / NO CONTEST
Lamar Miller (HOU): ECR – 9 / Finished – RB22 / WIN
Mike Evans (TB): ECR – 7 / Finished – WR4 / LOSS
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ): ECR – 5 / Finished – TE8-T / LOSS
Undervalued
Case Keenum (MIN): ECR – 20 / Finished – QB17 / WIN
Mike Gillislee (NE): ECR – 18 / Finished – RB43 / LOSS
Marvin Jones (DET): ECR – 32 / Finished – WR3 / WIN
George Kittle (SF) ECR – 17 / Finished – TE17 / LOSS
Not a great week. I’ll never take a win when an overvalued player leaves early with an injury, not because I’m so chivalrous, but because there are going to be weeks when my undervalued picks get hurt and I won’t want to call those losses either. Austin Seferian-Jenkins fell on my side by three spots, which could be considered a win given how shallow the position is, but he was obviously robbed of a second touchdown, and my base argument against him was so blatantly wrong that it would be a hollow victory at best.
George Kittle is still a player that needs to be monitored. His increased role was diminished by the change at QB to C.J. Beathard, who barely completed half of his passes. The switch should still ultimately be a good one, seeing as Beathard’s ceiling pretty much has to be higher than Hoyer’s.
But that’s enough preamble. Let’s take a crack at next week, shall we?
Quarterback
Overvalued: Brett Hundley (GB): vs. NO; ECR – QB16
To be clear, this is not merely an overreaction to last week. Hundley isn’t going to have as much trouble against the Saints at home with a week of first-team reps as he did against the Vikings in Minnesota with no preparation. New Orleans’ defense isn’t so good that their D/ST will be the highest scoring fantasy player all week.
But there is some credence to the idea that the Saints’ defense isn’t the pushover it once was, and Brett Hundley is still a player who’s proven nothing in an offense that’s shown to heavily rely on Aaron Rodgers to do certain things that other quarterbacks cannot.
Undervalued: Blake Bortles (JAC): @ IND; ECR – QB19
Indy is allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and they’ve yet to match up against any world-beaters. Russell Wilson, Brian Hoyer, and DeShone Kizer are among the players who’ve had their game against the Colts be one of few highlights in otherwise bad seasons.
Bortles is always liable to lay an egg. However, there’s blood in the water in the AFC South with the recent news that Andrew Luck may not be seeing any action this season after all, and the Jags aren’t afraid to huck the ball around with a significant lead (see: Week 3 in London vs. Baltimore). Indy’s secondary is terrible; Vontae Davis isn’t the corner he once was, and the team will be focusing most of its efforts on bottling up the run.
Running Back
Overvalued: LeSean McCoy (BUF): vs. TB; ECR – RB7
Shady has been a bust so far, but a lot of that has to do with his inability to find the end zone, which is bound to change eventually. His luck may have to wait to turn for one more week however as he faces off against a stout Tampa front seven that’s only getting healthier. Even after being gashed by Adrian Peterson last week, the Bucs are still in the top-half of defenses against fantasy running backs; a testament to how good they’ve been up to this point.
Oh, and while much ado was made about the health of left tackle Cordy Glenn and how his absence has contributed to McCoy’s struggles, the Bills might not even utilize him going forward, healthy or not. Don’t assume the bye-week will mean things are any different in the run game.
Undervalued: Tevin Coleman (ATL): @ NE; ECR – RB21
New England has two major issues with their defense: the lack of talent in their front seven, and poor communication in the secondary. Coleman is in a unique position to exploit both of these weaknesses come Sunday night. Every team that has faced the Patriots has featured a running back with at least 30 yards receiving, and four of these six games showcased pass-catching backs with at least 50 yards receiving.
If you’d like a little bit of a narrative to throw into the mix, just remember what happened the last time Atlanta left Devonta Freeman to pass-block in Coleman’s stead. Freeman is unquestionably atop the depth chart and is probably in line for a nice game of his own, but Tevin Coleman will get his snaps and is primed to make the most of his touches.
Wide Receiver
Overvalued: Brandin Cooks (NE): vs. ATL; ECR – WR8
The Falcons are no strangers to Cooks, who has faced Atlanta five times before this upcoming meeting as a member of the New Orleans Saints. Even though their corners typically don’t shadow, Atlanta’s secondary is well equipped to handle Cooks. Cooks will either be lined up across from Desmond Trufant, one of the best defensive backs in the league, or Robert Alford, who is quick and nimble and tends to hold when he’s beat (which doesn’t count for any fantasy points, by the way).
New England has far better options on the inside and underneath with Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, and James White. Tom Brady will take his shots – he’s been consistent doing so all year – but Cooks will need to not only connect, but find the end zone on at least one of them if he wants to be in the top 10 this week.
Undervalued: Marqise Lee (JAC): @ IND; ECR – WR31
While quarterbacks and wide receivers aren’t necessarily joined at the hip when it comes to production in fantasy, when I like a QB I tend to like a WR, and when I dislike a QB, I tend to be down on at least one pass-catcher. This week I’m all-in on the Bortles-Lee stack, though you might want to look elsewhere if you’re trying to find a duo for your daily leagues. As was discussed previously, Indianapolis’ pass defense is horrid, and Doug Marrone isn’t afraid to let Blake Bortles sling the ball for some extra confidence (or perhaps the other team’s humiliation) even if the Jags are holding a comfortable lead.
Marqise Lee has been the only receiver on this team to have any consistency in terms of target share. Lee did have some injury issues that seemingly impacted his targets in Weeks 4 and 5, but just last Sunday he was back up into the double digits, which is always promising.
Tight End
Overvalued: Evan Engram (NYG): vs. SEA; ECR – TE6
Engram’s success last week is a bit of a surprise as far as I’m concerned. Yes, he lines up as a tight end, which helps against the Broncos, but he was also quite literally one of the only healthy receiving options – how did Denver not scheme for him more efficiently? They just let Engram bully safety Justin Simmons all game, and it’s pretty embarrassing from a coaching perspective considering that Engram is just a receiver and the Broncos have excellent corners.
Seattle’s defense is nothing fancy either, but they have more talent at safety and linebacker to take Engram away. Being the #1 is nice and all for a tight end, but this is just a bad matchup based on where Engram lines up.
Undervalued: Jack Doyle (IND): vs. JAC; ECR – TE17
Jacksonville is allowing the 13th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, which might not seem too impressive until you realize that Delanie Walker is quite literally the only TE of any consequence that they’ve had to deal with. It’s not that they can’t cover the position necessarily so much as it is that their cornerbacks are good enough to shut down opposing receivers. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are one of the best tandems in the league, meaning T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief will have their work cut out for them.
Jacoby Brissett has been surprisingly effective quarterbacking the Colts on the fly, and right now it looks like the job could be his for the rest of the season, which you’d imagine has to have a positive effect on him mentally. He’s got what it takes to compete, and Jack Doyle will be his outlet for success this weekend.
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Shane McCormack is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Shane, check out his archive and follow him @ShaneMcCormack_.
