The NBA season is finally here which means that it’s once again time to yell at Anthony Davis when he leaves with a mid-game injury. AD isn’t playing on the first Saturday of the season, but plenty of other superstars are in what is a rather generous 10-game slate. Let’s take a look at who you want to consider for your lineups tonight.
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Point Guards
Yogi Ferrell (DAL): $4,100 @ HOU
The Mavericks are decimated by injury at the guard position just three games into the season with rookie Dennis Smith Jr., Seth Curry, and Devin Harris all out. One of Yogi Ferrell or JJ Barea is going to be a very strong play at the PG position for the Mavs, and I’m trending more toward the contrarian play in Ferrell. Barea is going to be one of the most popular plays of the night due to his recent performance as he went off for 30.2 points on Friday night against the Kings. Ferrell actually played 30 minutes compared to Barea’s 27 on Friday night, but J.J. has been the far superior per minute performer thus far which will make him the more popular play tonight. However, back-to-backs can be tricky and we may see a swap in production among the two Mavs point guards tonight. I’ll likely have 55/45 exposure to Ferrell and Barea respectively in my lineups, but prefer Ferrell as the contrarian play if making only one lineup.
Kyle Lowry (TOR): $8,200 v. PHI
We went cheap at the first PG spot so we are going pricier here. Right next to my “RBs vs. the 49ers” tattoo that I have for NFL DFS is my “PGs vs. the Sixers” tattoo that I have for NBA DFS. Point guards have been a play against the Sixers for seemingly forever, and not much appears to have changed this season despite T.J. McConnell‘s reduced minutes for the Sixers. As of this writing, DeMar DeRozan is questionable with an illness. His absence would make Lowry about as must-play as it gets due to his increased usage without DeRozan in the lineup. Even if DeRozan plays, Lowry is still a fantastic play at a surprisingly low $8,200 price point considering the plus match-up. Lowry didn’t reach 30 points in his first game against the Bulls, but that largely had to due with the game being essentially over by the middle of the second quarter. Expect Lowry to trend closer to the 40-point mark in this one even if DeRozan plays with the potential for 50 if he doesn’t. Lowry posted at least 35 points in all of his games against the Sixers last season and was never priced below $8,500. Lowry is a lock for me in all lineups in what should be a more competitive game than the season opener against the Bulls.
Shooting Guards
James Harden (HOU): $11,000 v. DAL
Here’s an exclusive look at James Harden after reports that Chris Paul is expected to miss 2-to-4 weeks with a knee injury:
Harden didn’t post a monster Harden line in his first game of the season without CP3, but that was likely just due to the back-to-back. Expect him to go off tonight. Lock and load.
Lou Williams (LAC): $4,900 v. PHO
One of the main takeaways from the first week of NBA is that the Suns are an absolute train wreck on defense. The blowout potential of this game doesn’t make the higher priced options on the Clippers all that appealing, but Lou Williams is a strong point per minute player with the ability to put up big points. He only needed 25 minutes to put up a solid 28.6 points against the Lakers on Thursday night. He’s by no means a lock, but he will have heavy exposure in my lineups tonight.
Small Forwards
LeBron James (CLE): $10,900 v. ORL
Even on the back-to-back, I’ll lock LeBron into my lineup tonight. The small forward spot seems to be a tough position to gauge this season, but LeBron’s per minute production thus far has trumped any other SF’s, including Kevin Durant. LeBron only had 43 points in 37 minutes on Friday night against the Bucks. Expect a more LeBron-like 55+ point performance against the Magic who are coming off a game Friday night in which they were torched by Nets SF DeMarre Carroll.
Jonathon Simmons (ORL): $4,100 @ CLE
Jonathan Simmons was surprisingly a dud on Friday night against the Nets with Aaron Gordon out and Elfrid Payton leaving due to injury early in the game. Simmons logged 22 minutes, but only mustered 10.7 points on 3-for-6 shooting with Evan Fournier and Nikola Vucevic stealing the show. Simmons is far from a lock but offers bounce-back potential at a cheap price tonight against the Cavs who allowed big games to Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown on opening night. Payton has been ruled out while Aaron Gordon is currently a game-time decision.
Power Forwards
Kelly Olynyk (MIA): 4,400 v. IND
Along with Barea, Olynyk will be one of the most popular low-priced plays tonight due to Hassan Whiteside‘s absence. Olynyk showed well in the Heat’s opening night loss to the Magic with 20.5 points in 21 minutes and is all set for heavy minutes tonight as the Heat feature an extremely thin frontcourt. The Pacers have been torn apart inside so far, allowing 16 points and 16 rebounds to Al-Farouq Aminu on Friday night as well as a double-double to Trevor Booker opening night. Like with Barea/Ferrell, I don’t expect both James Johnson and Olynyk to go off in this one, but I am pretty confident that one will. I went with the more contrarian play in Ferrell at PG so I will go with the more conventional choice in Olynyk at PF if making only one lineup. However, I’ll be employing a similar 55/45 split for Olynyk and Johnson.
Draymond Green (GSW): 8,400 @ MEM
Draymond returned from his knee injury against the Rockets on opening night to post 10 points, seven boards, and four assists against the Pelicans on Friday night. This spot is going to vary quite a bit for me, but I’m trending toward some heavy exposure to Green who went off for 61.4 points the last time he played in Memphis. The Griz were destroyed by both Boogie Cousins and AD on Wednesday night and have little depth at the power forward position with JaMychal Green out and Zach Randolph now playing with the Kings.
Center
Tristan Thompson (CLE): $3,800 v. ORL
Going pricey with Draymond will force me to go cheap at center. Tristan Thompson has already seen his price tumble from $5,200 on opening night to $3,800. He gets a prime match-up with the Magic, and should have more success than the 17.6 points he had in 25 minutes against the Bucks on Friday night.
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That’s going to do it. Best of luck tonight!
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Joey Korman is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joey, check out his archive and follow him @leaveit2divac.
