As we head into Week 4 of the fantasy football season, let us take a moment to reflect on the first three weeks of the season. How crazy Week 1 was and how things appeared to right themselves in Week 2, but then Week 3 had to come along and completely turn things upside down and make us all question if we can truly predict what will happen week to week. The answer to that is no. It always has been in the NFL.
The term “Any given Sunday” is a phrase built off of the fact that the NFL is as unpredictable as they come. All we can do as analysts is investigate past performance, future matchups, outcome probability, etc… and come up with our best, educated guesses through our daunting research to give advice on various subjects related to fantasy football.
That said, I look to answer some burning questions for you heading into Week 4. Enjoy!
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Are the Los Angeles Rams for real?
Piggybacking off of my “5 Burning Questions for Week 2” article question, “Is the Los Angeles Rams’ offense for real?” I felt compelled to revisit this in general terms and not specific to the offense. Through three weeks, the Rams are one of the top defenses and lead the NFL with 107 points.
Jared Goff has looked like a solid quarterback, already with 817 passing yards and a five to one touchdown to interception ratio. A stat I threw out on Twitter that I found interesting: Goff leads all QBs in fantasy points on third down plays. He ranks second on red zone plays behind Trevor Siemian.
Todd Gurley is a top running back in the league, and the defense, although giving up some points, has created plenty of turnovers that have contributed to the success of this team in the first three weeks. The Rams will head to Dallas this weekend in what should be an offensive battle. Before the season began, I’d tell you that the Rams have no chance against the Cowboys, but their play up until this point has me thinking it will be much closer than most expect.
The Rams will head to Dallas this weekend in what should be an offensive battle. Before the season began, I’d tell you that the Rams have no chance against the Cowboys, but their play up until this point has me thinking it will be much closer than most expect.
Is it time to drop Cam Newton?
Newton has not looked himself since coming back from shoulder surgery. The Panthers are trying to do what’s best for their franchise quarterback and protect him by limiting his running. Doing so has truly hindered Newton’s performance through the first three weeks of the season.
To be fair to Newton here, he has dealt with a few changes this season that could be contributing to his troubles. His shoulder surgery (as previously mentioned) is something Newton may need some time to adjust to.
The loss of Greg Olsen, arguably Newton’s number one target in the offense in Week 2 has obviously played a factor thus far. The addition of a pass-catching running back in Christian McCaffrey, something Cam Newton has never had, is another change in this offense for Newton to adapt to.
With Olsen out, Newton will have to quickly adapt to throwing to McCaffrey. It would appear Newton has already done so as he targeted McCaffrey 11 times last week. McCaffrey hauled in nine of those 11 targets for 101 yard. McCaffrey also averaged four yards per carry on his four carries in Week 3. Expect the Panthers’ offense to utilize Christian McCaffrey a lot more moving forward which could be the key for Cam Newton to get past his early season struggles and get back into QB1 discussions.
I’d hold onto Newton for now, but if you drop him, I can’t blame you as there are plenty of viable streaming options at the position. Just don’t be shocked if Newton does improve as the season progresses.
Amari Cooper or Michael Crabtree?
Amari Cooper is supposed to be the number one wideout for the Oakland Raiders. He has not looked that way this season. Cooper does have the talent to be a number one receiver, but he is struggling early and often this season dropping six of his 23 targets from quarterback, Derek Carr.
If that doesn’t worry you enough, Cooper has dropped consecutive passes in the end zone from Carr. You can’t blame the quarterback for looking elsewhere for reliable production in this offense. Enter Michael Crabtree. Surprisingly, Crabtree has seven fewer targets than Cooper this season.
I’d expect that to change, especially if Amari’s butter fingers continue to be an issue. Crabtree has caught 81% of his targets while Cooper has only caught 44%. Crabtree (11) has seven more yards per target than Cooper (4) this season.
Cooper does have more red zone targets than Crabtree, but he has only caught 1 of his five targets (dropping three of them) while Crabtree has caught both of his red zone targets. Derek Carr also looks to Amari Cooper more on third downs.
It’s obvious that Carr wants to target Cooper. Cooper does a great job getting open, but if he cannot haul in the targets, it’s only natural for Carr to begin to look elsewhere.
By no means am I advising to drop Amari Cooper, he is still targeted as the number one receiver and the volume alone will turn into production. He is targeted most because he gets separation in his routes. I am just giving you the raw stats that show Crabtree as the more productive, reliable option right now in this offense.
If you have Michael Crabtree, you can confidently play him every week. If you have Amari Cooper, you can’t bench him.
Let’s hope he reduces his drops. Otherwise, it will be a long season for Cooper owners.
Should tight ends be streamed?
I’ll start off by saying, it depends on who you have. Before the season began, I was hopeful the tight end position would bounce back from last season and that, unfortunately, has not been the case so far. Injuries to Greg Olsen and Jordan Reed (shocker!), Hunter Henry’s roller-coaster production, Travis Kelce’s one-yard outing last week, and Jimmy Graham’s performance isn’t Jimmy Graham.
These are the situations fantasy owners are in that spent high draft capital on these tight ends. If you don’t have Rob Gronkowski or Zach Ertz, you’re pretty frustrated with the position at the moment.
Yes, it’s still early in the season, but this could be a continuing trend, not just this season, but it could be where the NFL is trending. I’m sure you will see fantasy leagues begin to drop the tight end position from rosters as we have already seen with kickers and defenses. This may sound like an over-reaction, but if or WHEN that happens, you heard it here first.
I would encourage you to stream tight ends as there are plenty on waivers with favorable matchups week to week that will if played right, average together decent overall production out of the position on the season to get you by.
Jordan Howard or Tarik Cohen?
Why not both? We see it more than you think where two running backs from the same team are viable fantasy options every week. After Weeks 1 and 2, Howard owners were tilting and feared Tarik Cohen would likely take over as the early-down back. All those worries were swept away after Jordan Howard’s Week 3 performance.
He exploded for 140 rushing yards on 23 carries and two touchdowns and, for someone who “can’t catch,” he caught all five of his targets. Howard is no question the early-down back in this offense.
Tarik Cohen will continue to be on the field for more than just third down plays as the Bears have limited assets at wide receiver. He caught all four of his targets Week 3 and averaged 6.5 yards per carry with 78 yards on 12 attempts. Cohen is now a key cog in this offense and should be owned in all leagues alongside his teammate, Jordan Howard.
(*Update. My views remain on both Chicago Bears running backs regardless of the outcome for each on Thursday night football vs. the Green Bay Packers)
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Nate Hamilton is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @DomiNateFF.