Keeper Values and Draft Pick Values (Fantasy Football)

I can’t tell you all how many questions I’ve had this pre-season about assessing the keeper value of a player. I’ve been using the same methodology to deal with these questions for a handful of years, so I figured it was time to share it with you all. Before I even heard of Value Based Drafting, I came up with PAR (points above replacement) and did the manual work myself to determine each player’s PAR. For what it’s worth, PAR is the same exact thing as VBD. So as we go through the article, think of VBD as a player’s value above the baseline player (IE: in a 12 team league, the 12th QB, 24th RB, 36th WR).

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Once you have that measurement, you take the average VBD over the past five years by ranking and average it out. For instance, the #1 fantasy player over the past five years was worth 196 VBD, 126, 175, 182 and 177, which on average, comes to 171.2 VBD. Granted, the #1 drafted player doesn’t always, or even usually turn out to be the top fantasy player, but you do have the odds in your favor of making a much higher VBD pick. Then, you take the number of picks in your draft plus one then subtract the draft pick number. So if your 12 team league has 14 rounds, we take 164+1 and if we are referring to the first pick, -1, which comes to 164. So 171.2 VBD + 164 = 335.2 value for the #1 overall pick.

Don’t worry, you don’t need to compile the numbers. I’ve done it for you in a table at the bottom of the article. Before we get there, let’s talk about how you can utilize this data to your benefit.

Draft Pick Trades

When trading draft picks, it is quite simple. Just take the projected value of the picks being offered compared to the others. So imagine you were offered pick 2.5 and pick 3.8 in a 12 team league for your 1.10 and 4.3. The chart below tells us that his #17 overall is worth 219.8 while his #32 overall is worth 176.8 compared to your #10 and #39, which are worth 249.4 and 162.4. Historical VBD trends suggest that you would lose this trade. Had he asked for your 1.10 and 5.10, the deal would sway into your favor, however.

What if you don’t know the draft order yet? Well, you take the average value from within the rounds being offered. Say for instance that you are like me and have trouble finding much that you like in the 4th and 5th rounds. Those picks would be worth 153.8 and 127.8 on average. So if you were looking to secure an additional 2nd rounder (215.8 average), you should only accept any offer of a 2nd and 8th or better for the 4th and 5th.

Keeper Value

Keepers is where it starts to get a little trickier. You have figure out the value saved from each of your options by taking their ECR, which stands for Expert Consensus Rankings, and line it up with the corresponding pick number. So A.J. Green is #10 and worth 249.4 according to ECR and VBD in tandem. If you would be surrendering a 4th to keep him, you subtract the average of the 4th round picks (153.8), and you are saving 93.6 in value. Does that savings defeat your other options? If so, Green is your keeper. Bear in mind that other teams in your league will be keeping players, so the first round (12 picks) in your draft might actually consist of ECRs #1, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14, 15, 19, 20 and 21 instead of 1 through 12. In this case, predict your league’s keepers as accurately as possible and remove those player values from the table, then recalculate each round’s value.

These tables are based on a standard 12 team league with standard scoring, but if you wanted to follow the math to it’s resolve for your league, it only takes about 30 minutes to manually adjust. With that being said, the difference for the draft pick value between a 12 team and 10 team league, Standard or PPR, or even 1 QB, 2 QB league does not change much, just make sure to use our customizable cheat sheet creator to find the true player rankings for your league settings according to the expert consensus.

Value By Round

Round	Value
1	271.8
2	215.3
3	181.5
4	153.8
5	127.8
6	105.8
7	86.7
8	74.5
9	62.5
10	50.5
11	38.5
12	26.5
13	14.5
14	3.0

Value By Pick

Overall	Round	Pick	Value
1	1	1	335.2
2	1	2	310.0
3	1	3	293.6
4	1	4	282.0
5	1	5	273.2
6	1	6	268.0
7	1	7	261.4
8	1	8	257.2
9	1	9	252.6
10	1	10	249.4
11	1	11	241.6
12	1	12	237.2
13	2	1	233.4
14	2	2	229.4
15	2	3	226.4
16	2	4	222.6
17	2	5	219.8
18	2	6	217.0
19	2	7	212.8
20	2	8	210.2
21	2	9	206.6
22	2	10	204.8
23	2	11	201.6
24	2	12	198.8
25	3	1	194.8
26	3	2	192.0
27	3	3	190.6
28	3	4	188.0
29	3	5	184.2
30	3	6	182.4
31	3	7	180.0
32	3	8	176.8
33	3	9	174.8
34	3	10	173.6
35	3	11	172.0
36	3	12	168.4
37	4	1	166.6
38	4	2	164.6
39	4	3	162.4
40	4	4	159.0
41	4	5	156.6
42	4	6	154.8
43	4	7	153.2
44	4	8	150.4
45	4	9	147.4
46	4	10	145.4
47	4	11	143.4
48	4	12	141.8
49	5	1	138.4
50	5	2	136.8
51	5	3	134.2
52	5	4	132.2
53	5	5	130.2
54	5	6	128.4
55	5	7	126.2
56	5	8	124.8
57	5	9	123.0
58	5	10	121.4
59	5	11	120.4
60	5	12	118.0
61	6	1	116.0
62	6	2	114.2
63	6	3	112.4
64	6	4	110.6
65	6	5	109.2
66	6	6	107.0
67	6	7	104.4
68	6	8	102.6
69	6	9	101.2
70	6	10	99.0
71	6	11	97.4
72	6	12	95.4
73	7	1	93.2
74	7	2	91.6
75	7	3	90
76	7	4	89
77	7	5	88
78	7	6	87
79	7	7	86
80	7	8	85
81	7	9	84
82	7	10	83
83	7	11	82
84	7	12	81
85	8	1	80
86	8	2	79
87	8	3	78
88	8	4	77
89	8	5	76
90	8	6	75
91	8	7	74
92	8	8	73
93	8	9	72
94	8	10	71
95	8	11	70
96	8	12	69
97	9	1	68
98	9	2	67
99	9	3	66
100	9	4	65
101	9	5	64
102	9	6	63
103	9	7	62
104	9	8	61
105	9	9	60
106	9	10	59
107	9	11	58
108	9	12	57
109	10	1	56
110	10	2	55
111	10	3	54
112	10	4	53
113	10	5	52
114	10	6	51
115	10	7	50
116	10	8	49
117	10	9	48
118	10	10	47
119	10	11	46
120	10	12	45
121	11	1	44
122	11	2	43
123	11	3	42
124	11	4	41
125	11	5	40
126	11	6	39
127	11	7	38
128	11	8	37
129	11	9	36
130	11	10	35
131	11	11	34
132	11	12	33
133	12	1	32
134	12	2	31
135	12	3	30
136	12	4	29
137	12	5	28
138	12	6	27
139	12	7	26
140	12	8	25
141	12	9	24
142	12	10	23
143	12	11	22
144	12	12	21
145	13	1	20
146	13	2	19
147	13	3	18
148	13	4	17
149	13	5	16
150	13	6	15
151	13	7	14
152	13	8	13
153	13	9	12
154	13	10	11
155	13	11	10
156	13	12	9
157	14	1	8
158	14	2	7
159	14	3	6
160	14	4	5
161	14	5	4
162	14	6	3
163	14	7	2
164	14	8	1

Thanks for reading. If you haven’t already, please check out the FantasyPros Football Podcast (below) that I co-host with Mike Tagliere. Good luck this season.