Before we begin this profile, ask yourself a question – would you trade a fifth-round and a ninth-round pick in order to get a top-12 running back? It seems like a trick question, right? By the time you’re done with this article, come back to this question and re-ask it. You’ll then understand why I told you to.

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There are many battles going on this preseason, but maybe none more important than the one we’re here to discuss today. It’s been one of the most talked about battles since the end of the NFL Draft – should you be snagging Spencer Ware or Kareem Hunt in your fantasy draft. There are points to be made by both sides, but today, we’re going to make the case for Ware to be your guy in 2017.

Andy Reid Coached Offense

Why must you choose one of them? Well, because Andy Reid is like the running back guru of fantasy football. Going back to his days with the Eagles where he continually produced top-end fantasy backs like Duce Staley, Brian Westbrook, and LeSean McCoy. Then he went onto Kansas City to work with Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware, Charcandrick West, and even Knile Davis had some fine fantasy performances. You may scoff at the last few names, but let’s take a look at what some of these running backs did in games where they had a significant role. Below is a chart over Reid’s time in Kansas City, with the games in which a running back totaled more than 15 touches.

Some may look at this chart and say that it’s a detriment to Ware, but you’d be missing the point. The point of this is that Reid’s offense has produced 51 games of a running back totaling at least 16 touches over a span of four years. If you do the math, there are only 64 games possible, which means that a running back has hit that number in 80 percent of games. After hearing that, it should come as no surprise to you that over the last two years, the starting running back from the Chiefs has never totaled fewer than 10 touches in a game. In 2016, the starter never touched the ball fewer than 12 times. Reid wants a workhorse to lead his offense, there is no question about that. Therefore, you want the running back who is leading it.

Goal Line Issues?

Going back to examine where it was that Ware struggled, it was on the goal-line in 2016, as he scored just three touchdowns on the season (he did miss two full games and a large portion of another). Was it Ware not getting the carries on the goal-line, or was he inefficient with the carries he was given? Most look at red zone carries as a determining factor, and Ware had 29 of them, which ranked 25th among running backs. Not necessarily a high number, though Charles, West, and Ware combined for 45 red zone carries in 2015. But a carry on the 20 isn’t quite the same as a carry inside the five-yard-line, right? Ware totaled just nine carries inside the five-yard-line last year, converting two of them for touchdowns, not what you’d call efficient, as the league-wide average among running backs stood at one touchdown every 2.2 carries inside the five.

After seeing that, you have to wonder about Ware standing his ground as the sure-fire starter if he can’t perform on the goal-line. But going back to 2015, Ware saw seven carries inside the five, and converted five of them for touchdowns. That conversion rate was among the best in the NFL. So, it goes back to the question – what happened to Ware in 2016?

The Concussion Effect

When you love running backs in Reid’s offense and pay attention to them as much as I do, you notice trends in their performances, though most seemed to have missed the trend with Ware. Through the preseason, Ware shined while scoring three touchdowns on just 24 carries. That momentum carried over into the regular season, as Ware totaled 199 total yards and a touchdown in Week 1 against the Chargers, a team that was better against the run than most expected. He was the No. 8 fantasy running back after seven weeks. The turning point for Ware happened in Week 8 when the Chiefs hosted the Colts. Ware was concussed in that game, forcing him to leave early and miss the following week. Some may underestimate the effects of a concussion, but Bears linebacker Leonard Floyd had this to say about them:

“It took me two months to really feel like I was back to myself… Day by day, I was able to focus more, and my mind wasn’t all racing everywhere, and I was able to lock in on things.”

He also talked about the fact that he was able to go through all the motions, but that everything just felt a slight step behind. When you play running back in the NFL, it’s the miniscule things that you do differently that can dramatically change the outcome of your runs. If Ware wasn’t ‘all there’ mentally, it could be part of the reason for his struggles. Looking at his splits before that Colts game and after is like looking at completely different players.

Everyone knows that Ware was phenomenal with his role in 2015, so we don’t need to go down that route to explain why he has a track record that you should trust. But it’s quite possible that the expectations for Ware just got out of control based on what he did at the end 2015/start of 2016. If you were to look at 2016 from a larger scope (over the whole season), his numbers that he posted aren’t nearly as bad as you might think. Take a look at how his numbers compared to those of Jay Ajayi in terms of RB1, RB2, and RB3 performances in 2016.

Keep in mind that this is a chart that I use myself, which is based on the average score it took to be top-12, top-24, or top-36 running back in any given week. The boom numbers indicate 25.0 or more PPR points, while the bust numbers are games with fewer than 8.0 PPR points. The list of players who “busted” less frequently than Ware were: Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Theo Riddick, Demarco Murray, Devonta Freeman, Frank Gore, and LeGarrette Blount. Quite an impressive list, considering how most view Ware’s 2016 season.

2017 Outlook

I’m not going to ignore the elephant in the room here, and neither should you. The Chiefs went out and drafted Kareem Hunt at the end of the third round in the NFL Draft. While that’s considered early for a running back nowadays, he was the sixth running back off the board. This does present some risk in drafting Ware, as a running back’s age has no bearing on whether or not he can be fantasy relevant (read more on how age matters to certain positions here). What bodes well for Ware, though, is that the Chiefs let go of Jamaal Charles without knowing they would get Hunt in the draft, which tells me that they were comfortable moving forward with Ware as the starter.

This is most definitely one of the battles to watch in the preseason, but it’s more than likely that Ware is the starter out of the gate and will remain such until he gives Reid a reason not to. In fact, it could be argued that Hunt was brought in to fill West’s shoes, or to simply add depth to the roster (this is highly unlikely for a third-round pick). Reid is one of the best coaches in the NFL and will make the decision based on talent, and as we’ve discussed here today, Ware has been a phenomenal talent over the last two years, even with his hiccup after the concussion. If Ware was being drafted at or around his value as a starter, I’d understand fading him with the built-in risk, but as of right now, he’s falling down draft boards into the RB19-RB22 range. In a Reid offense, you want the starter, one way or another, so even if you’re unable to get Ware at a discount, snag Hunt who is currently going as the 41st running back off the board. Heck, grab both of them if you want. Think I’m crazy for saying that? Go back and read the question at the top of this article. One of them is going to return RB1 value, though my money is on Ware right now.

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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.