How many times have you clicked on a fantasy football article, started to read it, only to drift off into a daydream after about 200 words? Your intentions were good, but with how short our attention spans are nowadays, it’s hard to follow the entire process. For example, did you know the average song on the radio right now is just three minutes and 30 seconds long?
With that being the case, I wanted to put together an article that we could not only look at for hours, but one we could come back to at any time. One that took out process and anything that would lead to a difference in opinion because it was based on pure, untarnished numbers, and one that everyone could relate to. Whether you’re the type of person who just reads a few articles in August before your draft or if you’re the type who’s been plotting your fantasy championship since back in April, you’ll be able to put this research to use.
Related: Check out the Running Backs portion of this series
How many times have you come across an article that stated “Player X had four WR1 performances?” What that particular writer did was go through the fantasy leaders from each week and looked up if that player was in the top-12 at their position. If they were in the top-12, they check off the box as a WR1 performance. But is that fair? My answer would be an emphatic “no.”
The average top-12 performance for wide receivers in 2016 was 19.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. Let’s pretend that Larry Fitzgerald scored 21.2 PPR points in Week 3, but there were 14 other wide receivers who scored more than him. Should Fitzgerald not be awarded a WR1 performance? What if that had been a top-12 performance in any other week? The player’s performance should not be graded on a curve, because we have no control on predicting what that curve is for any particular week. Our goal as analysts is to predict who will have a WR1 performance in any given week, and that performance stood at 19.1 points for wide receivers in 2016.
The numbers vary from year-to-year, but that’s where research comes in. Because while the top-12 number was 19.1 in 2016, it was 20.3 points for wide receivers in 2015. Every position is different, which meant there was a lot of work to do. I went through the tedious process of dissecting each player’s game logs, charting top-12, top-24, and top-36 performances. Not just that, but I also added boom and bust categories, as it represents their ceilings as well as their floors. It’s also important that I note this was done for PPR formats. While some may say that it’s “free points,” it’s also the format that showcases the most consistency, and what is arguably the most predictable.
The number to achieve boom or bust status varies per position, as some have it harder than others. With quarterback, the number to “boom” wound up on 26.0 because it would have amounted to roughly 350 passing yards and three touchdowns. That number can obviously be accomplished in a variety of different ways, but again, we just want them to reach that number. A “bust” on the other hand amounted to 13.9 fantasy points or less, which would mean they failed to throw for 250 yards and a touchdown, or somewhere in that region. Below, you can find the chart with the parameters for each position.
| Position | Boom | Bust |
| QB | 26.0 | 13.9 |
| RB | 25.0 | 6.9 |
| WR | 25.0 | 7.9 |
| TE | 20.0 | 6.9 |
Just to give you an idea as to one of the things that was found – Carson Palmer has had just two games over 26 fantasy points (boom) in the last six years. Tyrod Taylor has hit that number five times in the last two seasons. They are going almost right next to each other in early drafts.
So, ladies and gentleman, I present to you “Boom, Bust, and Everything in Between.”
We are going to go through the wide receivers right here, but you’ll be able to find the links to all other positions below.
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Tight Ends
Wide Receivers
Top-10
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Antonio Brown | 15 | 10.5 | 53.3% | 73.3% | 80.0% | 33.3% | 6.7% |
| Julio Jones | 14 | 9.2 | 50.0% | 64.3% | 64.3% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 16 | 10.6 | 37.5% | 68.8% | 68.8% | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Mike Evans | 16 | 10.8 | 43.8% | 62.5% | 62.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| A.J. Green | 10 | 10.0 | 40.0% | 70.0% | 70.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Jordy Nelson | 16 | 9.5 | 37.5% | 68.8% | 87.5% | 25.0% | 6.3% |
| Michael Thomas | 15 | 8.1 | 33.3% | 53.3% | 80.0% | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| T.Y. Hilton | 16 | 9.7 | 37.5% | 56.3% | 68.8% | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Amari Cooper | 16 | 8.2 | 25.0% | 31.3% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| Dez Bryant | 13 | 7.4 | 30.8% | 53.8% | 69.2% | 15.4% | 30.8% |
Similar to the top-10 running backs, there’s a player who doesn’t quite fit the criteria here, and it’s Amari Cooper. Despite my affinity for Cooper, it doesn’t quite feel right to put him in with the top 10 wide receivers just yet. With that being said, if he can turn around his end-zone woes, he’ll fit in this group as we head into 2018. Once you get to the next group, though, you’ll see why he fits in this tier of wide receivers.
The other player at the bottom of the top-10 is Dez Bryant, and while his numbers are close to everyone in his vicinity, his targets are not. His target/carry totals on a per-game basis ranked 30th in the NFL among wide receivers, but he managed to finish with the ninth-highest WR2 percentage. Bryant has overcome touchdown regression in years past, but he’ll have a tough time with his slate of cornerbacks in 2017.
Antonio Brown is clearly a man amongst boys here, totaling a WR1 or WR2 performance 73.3 percent of the time. To be clear, it required 14.6 PPR points to get into WR2 range in 2016. It really shouldn’t be out of question that you take him over one of the big three running backs, because it all comes down to preference and how you want to build your roster. Below are Brown’s totals over the last four seasons.
| YEAR | Games | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| 2016 | 15 | 53.3% | 73.3% | 80.0% | 33.3% | 6.7% |
| 2015 | 16 | 50.0% | 68.8% | 75.0% | 43.8% | 12.5% |
| 2014 | 16 | 75.0% | 87.5% | 100.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 16 | 31.3% | 75.0% | 93.8% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
Top-20
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 16 | 9.4 | 6.3% | 43.8% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Brandin Cooks | 15 | 8.2 | 20.0% | 46.7% | 66.7% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Doug Baldwin | 16 | 8.0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 56.3% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| Demaryius Thomas | 16 | 9.0 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Sammy Watkins | 8 | 6.5 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 25.0% | 12.5% | 50.0% |
| Alshon Jeffery | 12 | 7.2 | 8.3% | 33.3% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Keenan Allen | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Allen Robinson | 16 | 9.4 | 25.0% | 31.3% | 50.0% | 6.3% | 37.5% |
| Jarvis Landry | 16 | 8.5 | 18.8% | 43.8% | 68.8% | 6.3% | 18.8% |
| Terrelle Pryor | 16 | 9.3 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 31.3% |
Quite the divide from the top-10, right? After looking at this group, it’s actually easy to see why Cooper is being considered in the top-10 even if it doesn’t feel right just yet. Nobody in this group finished as a WR2 more than 50 percent of the time, making it much dicier when considering the safety of your roster. Demaryius Thomas seems to be the player with the best floor, but he hasn’t offered week winning upside in quite a while, as he hasn’t scored more than 24 fantasy points since Week 12 of 2014.
The most questionable player on this list, especially given he’s at the top of it, is DeAndre Hopkins. Sure, he had Brock Osweiler throwing to him last year, but is Tom Savage really an upgrade? Even if Deshaun Watson winds up starting, we’re talking about a rookie in a run-first offense. Hopkins saw 9.4 targets per game in 2016, the ninth-highest mark among wide receivers. Even asking for WR3 performances, his 50 percent ranked 30th among his peers.
The two players in this range who have some built-in excuses for their lackluster performances in 2016 are Alshon Jeffery and Sammy Watkins. Jeffery dealt with soft tissue injuries, while Watkins was shut down for a majority of the season and needed to get the second surgery done on his foot this offseason. During the 2015 season, Jeffery and Watkins both turned in WR2 performances more than 53 percent of the time.
Brandin Cooks has been said to be one of the riskier picks in this part of the draft, but I’d argue against that. He offers more than enough boom potential to justify the risk of target share in New England. As you can see, it’s somewhat rare for more than 10 wide receivers to total 50 percent of WR2-type performances.
For as good as Terrelle Pryor‘s 2016 season was perceived as, it’s not good to see his 31.3 percent bust rate and just 50 percent WR3 rate with 9.3 targets per game. Quarterback struggles were certainly part of the blame, but it’s highly unlikely he sees anywhere near that volume in Washington.
Top-30
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Davante Adams | 16 | 7.6 | 31.3% | 43.8% | 62.5% | 12.5% | 31.3% |
| Michael Crabtree | 16 | 9.1 | 18.8% | 56.3% | 68.8% | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| Golden Tate | 16 | 9.1 | 31.3% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| Julian Edelman | 16 | 10.7 | 12.5% | 43.8% | 75.0% | 6.3% | 12.5% |
| Tyreek Hill | 16 | 6.7 | 18.8% | 31.3% | 56.3% | 6.3% | 31.3% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 16 | 9.5 | 18.8% | 50.0% | 62.5% | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Martavis Bryant | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | 8.8 | 30.8% | 38.5% | 53.8% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 15 | 8.6 | 26.7% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Jamison Crowder | 16 | 6.2 | 6.3% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 6.3% | 37.5% |
This seems to be the area for players who are seeing big targets, but not producing as expected with them. Julian Edelman ranked second to only Mike Evans in terms of a combined targets/carries per game, yet finished as a WR2 just 43.8 percent of the time. Tom Brady was still his quarterback last year, right?
If you’re looking for the best value based on last year’s performances, it seems like that’d be Davante Adams, who offers boom potential on a weekly basis. He also comes with bust potential, but the fact that he’s taken outside the top 20 wide receivers more than accounts for that.
While Martavis Bryant didn’t play in 2016, he’s someone to definitely keep an eye on as the season approaches. His 72.7 percent finish as a WR3 in 2015 actually ranked 16th in the league, and we know he has upside, as he’s hit the “boom” qualifier three times in just 21 career games. Stefon Diggs is another one in this range who has higher upside than most think.
This is chart is just another reason why I’ve been preaching Stefon Diggs‘ name over the past few months, because despite playing hurt the majority of the year in 2016, he outproduced where he’s being drafted in 2017. What I’m saying is that if Diggs plays exactly like he did in 2016, he should be drafted up towards the early 20’s with Golden Tate. Take a look at them next to each other.
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Golden Tate | 16 | 9.1 | 31.3% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| Stefon Diggs | 13 | 8.8 | 30.8% | 38.5% | 53.8% | 15.4% | 15.4% |
Essentially the same player, though Diggs didn’t come with the downside that Tate did in the beginning of the season. It’s quite possible that Diggs can be mentioned inside the top 20 wide receivers at this point next year.
Top-40
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Brandon Marshall | 15 | 8.5 | 6.7% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 6.7% | 46.7% |
| Willie Snead | 15 | 6.9 | 13.3% | 40.0% | 46.7% | 6.7% | 33.3% |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 16 | 7.4 | 18.8% | 31.3% | 62.5% | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| Donte Moncrief | 9 | 6.3 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Pierre Garcon | 16 | 7.1 | 6.3% | 31.3% | 62.5% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| DeSean Jackson | 15 | 6.7 | 13.3% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Devante Parker | 15 | 5.9 | 6.7% | 26.7% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Randall Cobb | 13 | 7.2 | 7.7% | 23.1% | 30.8% | 7.7% | 30.8% |
| Eric Decker | 3 | 7.0 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Cameron Meredith | 14 | 7.0 | 21.4% | 35.7% | 50.0% | 14.3% | 35.7% |
You’ve heard me talk about the reasons I’m moving on from Brandon Marshall, and this chart tells a story. Here’s the closest comps for him from the 2016 season:
| Player | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Brandon Marshall | 6.7% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 6.7% | 46.7% |
| Robert Woods | 7.7% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 53.8% |
| Robby Anderson | 0.0% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Jeremy Kerley | 12.5% | 18.8% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 56.3% |
Quarterback struggles do obviously effect a wide receiver’s production, but you can’t tell me that no other wide receivers in the league have worse quarterback situations. Going to the Giants to play with Eli Manning, who wasn’t great himself last year, will be something to watch. But seeing him being drafted inside the top 30 wide receivers at times is too rich for his play last year.
This series has opened my eyes to a few things. While past play doesn’t necessarily translate to future success/failures, it’s really hard to make a case for Donte Moncrief where he is on this list. Not only is he due for some touchdown regression (saw six targets inside the 5-yard line last year, converted all six to touchdowns), but his target number is alarming. 6.3 targets per game ranked 51st among wide receivers, so it shouldn’t shock you to see zero WR1 performances.
Willie Snead is steadily climbing up draft boards, while DeSean Jackson has slid down just a little bit. Both of them produced similarly last year, but one (Jackson) has gone to a new team where there is a clear-cut alpha dog. It can be argued that despite the low touchdown totals for both of them, they are well worth their draft position, performing as WR2’s 40 percent of the time. If there wasn’t so many targets in Tennessee, Eric Decker would be a steal in this range, as he produced WR2 numbers at least 43.8 percent of the time from 2012-2015.
The player who stands out the most in the ‘boom’ territory of this list is Cameron Meredith, who essentially came out of nowhere to post WR1 numbers in 21.4 percent of games where he saw at least one target. Not just that, but one of his biggest targets for competition (Alshon Jeffery) just went off to the Eagles. There is bust potential due to such a small sample size, but as you can see in this group, a lot of them come with that same bust potential. The only way Meredith goes away is if Kevin White turns into a legitimate No. 1 for the Bears, which appears unlikely at this point.
Top-50
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Jeremy Maclin | 12 | 6.4 | 0.0% | 8.3% | 41.7% | 0.0% | 41.7% |
| Corey Coleman | 10 | 7.5 | 10.0% | 10.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | 60.0% |
| Adam Thielen | 16 | 5.9 | 12.5% | 18.8% | 43.8% | 12.5% | 37.5% |
| Tyrell Williams | 16 | 7.4 | 25.0% | 43.8% | 62.5% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Corey Davis | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kenny Britt | 15 | 7.4 | 6.7% | 46.7% | 60.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| John Brown | 14 | 5.2 | 7.1% | 21.4% | 28.6% | 0.0% | 64.3% |
| Mike Wallace | 16 | 7.6 | 18.8% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Rishard Matthews | 16 | 6.8 | 18.8% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| Jordan Matthews | 14 | 8.4 | 14.3% | 28.6% | 42.9% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
It’s really odd to see such high numbers down at No. 50, but that’s the sad reality for Tyrell Williams, who finished as the No. 13 wide receiver last year. With Keenan Allen returning and them drafting Mike Williams, it’s hard to envision a scenario where he’s heavily targeted (news has surfaced where Mike Williams may need season-ending surgery, which would clearly vault Tyrell up draft boards). It’s somewhat of a similar situation for Rishard Matthews, whose numbers were just a step below Williams.
The player who appears to be out of his league here is Corey Coleman, who struggled in his rookie campaign, competing for targets with Terrelle Pryor. While he left via free agency, the Browns brought in free agent veteran Kenny Britt. While I do expect Coleman to take a step forward in his sophomore season, those being taken in his range have a much clearer path to success, including Jeremy Maclin who is now in Baltimore on a team who’s thrown the ball 1,353 times over the last two seasons. His previous team, the Chiefs, threw the ball a combined 1,016 times the last two seasons.
Top-75 (The Rest)
| Player | GAMES | Tar+Car/gm | WR1 % | WR2 % | WR3 % | BOOM % | BUST % |
| Marvin Jones | 15 | 6.9 | 6.7% | 13.3% | 46.7% | 6.7% | 33.3% |
| Sterling Shepard | 16 | 6.8 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 56.3% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| John Ross | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Doctson | 2 | 3.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Kevin White | 4 | 9.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Ted Ginn | 16 | 6.8 | 6.3% | 25.0% | 31.3% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| Cole Beasley | 16 | 6.2 | 6.3% | 25.0% | 43.8% | 0.0% | 18.8% |
| Breshad Perriman | 15 | 4.5 | 0.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Taylor Gabriel | 12 | 4.5 | 8.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 8.3% | 41.7% |
| Mike Williams | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Lockett | 14 | 5.1 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 7.1% | 64.3% |
| Zay Jones | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Woods | 13 | 5.9 | 7.7% | 23.1% | 23.1% | 7.7% | 53.8% |
| Mohamed Sanu | 15 | 5.5 | 13.3% | 26.7% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 53.3% |
| Cooper Kupp | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robby Anderson | 14 | 5.6 | 0.0% | 21.4% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Laquon Treadwell | 2 | 1.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Will Fuller | 14 | 6.6 | 14.3% | 14.3% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 64.3% |
| Allen Hurns | 11 | 6.9 | 9.1% | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | 27.3% |
| Kenny Stills | 16 | 5.1 | 12.5% | 18.8% | 62.5% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| J.J. Nelson | 14 | 5.6 | 14.3% | 28.6% | 35.7% | 7.1% | 50.0% |
| Marqise Lee | 16 | 6.6 | 0.0% | 31.3% | 56.3% | 0.0% | 31.3% |
| Tavon Austin | 15 | 8.9 | 13.3% | 33.3% | 40.0% | 0.0% | 53.3% |
| Malcolm Mitchell | 12 | 4.0 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
When searching this far down the list, you’re essentially looking guys who have a high target potential, and there are a few names who stand out: Kevin White who saw 9.0 targets per game in his shortened 2016 season and Tavon Austin who saw a combined 8.9 targets/carries per week. White doesn’t have to compete with Alshon Jeffery for targets, but rather share with Cameron Meredith, while Austin now has a much more creative Sean McVay calling plays in Los Angeles.
Another two players whose numbers don’t belong in this group are Kenny Stills and J.J. Nelson. The Dolphins paid a lot of money to bring Stills back, and although he is in for some touchdown regression, his 62.5 percent WR3 rate was tied for 15th-best among wide receivers in 2016. Here’s the stat you’ll walk away remembering: Stills had as many 11.8-point games as Mike Evans did in 2016. As far as Nelson goes, he’s never going to be a No. 1 wide receiver, but the Cardinals are desperate at wide receiver, so we may see his combined 5.6 targets/carries increase in 2017.
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Takeaways
When it comes to wide receivers, it’s much tougher to find guys drafted outside of the top-50 who’ll finish inside the top-15 like running backs do. With that being said, there is a sweet spot in between the WR25-WR50 range where you can make cases for all of them to move up draft boards based on their performances and situation. Looking at everything, you want to get one of the 50-plus percent WR2 guys, which will require one of your top two picks. After that, you’re able to snag plenty of value later in drafts. A few names who stood out as values based on last year’s (or previous years in Bryant’s case) consistency include: Martavis Bryant, Stefon Diggs, Kelvin Benjamin, DeSean Jackson, Tyrell Williams, Kenny Britt, and Tavon Austin.
If there are any other wide receivers you’re wondering about who didn’t pop up on this list, feel free to reach out on Twitter @MikeTagliereNFL, and I’ll gladly share. We are also working on getting all of the data from each player’s career up on their player page.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.