How many times have you clicked on a fantasy football article, started to read it, only to drift off into a daydream after about 200 words? Your intentions were good, but with how short our attention spans are nowadays, it’s hard to follow the entire process. For example, did you know the average song on the radio right now is just three minutes and 30 seconds long?
With that being the case, I wanted to put together an article that we could not only look at for hours, but one we could come back to at any time. One that took out process and anything that would lead to a difference in opinion because it was based on pure, untarnished numbers, and one that everyone could relate to. Whether you’re the type of person who just reads a few articles in August before your draft or if you’re the type who’s been plotting your fantasy championship since back in April, you’ll be able to put this research to use.
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How many times have you come across an article that stated “Player X had four WR1 performances?” What that particular writer did was go through the fantasy leaders from each week and looked up if that player was in the top-12 at their position. If they were in the top-12, they check off the box as a WR1 performance. But is that fair? My answer would be an emphatic “no.”
The average top-12 performance for wide receivers in 2016 was 19.1 fantasy points in PPR formats. Let’s pretend that Larry Fitzgerald scored 21.2 PPR points in Week 3, but there were 14 other wide receivers who scored more than him. Should Fitzgerald not be awarded a WR1 performance? What if that had been a top-12 performance in any other week? The player’s performance should not be graded on a curve, because we have no control on predicting what that curve is for any particular week. Our goal as analysts is to predict who will have a WR1 performance in any given week, and that performance stood at 19.1 points for wide receivers in 2016.
The numbers vary from year-to-year, but that’s where research comes in. Because while the top-12 number was 19.1 in 2016, it was 20.3 points for wide receivers in 2015. Every position is different, which meant there was a lot of work to do. I went through the tedious process of dissecting each player’s game logs, charting top-12, top-24, and top-36 performances. Not just that, but I also added boom and bust categories, as it represents their ceilings as well as their floors.
The number to achieve boom or bust status varies per position, as some have it harder than others. With quarterback, the number to “boom” wound up on 26.0 because it would have amounted to roughly 350 passing yards and three touchdowns. That number can obviously be accomplished in a variety of different ways, but again, we just want them to reach that number. A “bust” on the other hand amounted to 13.9 fantasy points or less, which would mean they failed to throw for 250 yards and a touchdown, or somewhere in that region. Below, you can find the chart with the parameters for each position.
| Position | Boom | Bust |
| QB | 26.0 | 13.9 |
| RB | 25.0 | 6.9 |
| WR | 25.0 | 7.9 |
| TE | 20.0 | 6.9 |
Just to give you an idea as to one of the things that was found – Carson Palmer has had just two games over 26 fantasy points (boom) in the last six years. Tyrod Taylor has hit that number five times in the last two seasons. They are going almost right next to each other in early drafts.
So, ladies and gentleman, I present to you “Boom, Bust, and Everything in Between.”
We are going to go through the quarterbacks right here, but you’ll be able to find the links to all other positions below.
Wide Receivers
Running Backs
Tight Ends
Quarterbacks
Top-5
| Player | GAMES | Att/gm | Top-5 % | Top-12 % | Top-18 % | Boom % | Bust % |
| Aaron Rodgers | 16 | 38.1 | 43.8% | 68.8% | 87.5% | 43.8% | 12.5% |
| Tom Brady | 12 | 36.0 | 50.0% | 75.0% | 83.3% | 41.7% | 16.7% |
| Drew Brees | 16 | 42.1 | 43.8% | 62.5% | 81.3% | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| Matt Ryan | 16 | 33.4 | 37.5% | 75.0% | 87.5% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Andrew Luck | 15 | 36.3 | 26.7% | 66.7% | 80.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
This list shouldn’t really surprise anyone, considering how great these guys were last year. We all know that Matt Ryan is in for some touchdown regression in 2017, but it’s rather remarkable what he did considering he threw the ball just 33.4 times per game. He hadn’t thrown the ball less than 38.4 times per game in each of the previous four seasons, so that should help make up for at least a little bit of his expected regression.
It’s probably worth noting that this was Aaron Rodgers‘ highest “boom” percentage of his career, which is saying something considering just how good his 2011 season was. Tom Brady also reached a new career-high in the “boom” category, as his 41.7 percent topped his previous career-high from 2007 that produced 26 or more fantasy points in 37.5 percent of games. Drew Brees was much better in 2016 (62.5 percent) than he was the two previous years where he was a top 12 quarterback just 45.2 percent of the time (17 of 31 games).
It would appear that Luck should be drafted as the fifth quarterback based on this list, but remember that he was playing with a throwing-shoulder injury that required surgery since Week 3. Knowing that, it’s pretty remarkable he finished with the fifth-highest top-12 percentage.
Top-12
| Player | GAMES | Att/gm | Top-5 % | Top-12 % | Top-18 % | Boom % | Bust % | |
| Russell Wilson | 16 | 34.1 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 18.8% | 43.8% | |
| Cam Newton | 15 | 34.0 | 13.3% | 40.0% | 53.3% | 13.3% | 46.7% | |
| Derek Carr | 15 | 37.3 | 13.3% | 53.3% | 60.0% | 6.7% | 40.0% | |
| Dak Prescott | 16 | 28.7 | 18.8% | 68.8% | 75.0% | 6.3% | 25.0% | |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14 | 36.4 | 21.4% | 57.1% | 71.4% | 21.4% | 28.6% | |
| Kirk Cousins | 16 | 37.9 | 25.0% | 50.0% | 75.0% | 18.8% | 25.0% | |
| Marcus Mariota | 15 | 30.1 | 26.7% | 46.7% | 66.7% | 20.0% | 33.3% | |
After seeing the top-five posted together, this group doesn’t look quite that good. But there are some notable performances in here that cannot go unnoticed. The biggest one being the fact that Dak Prescott finished as a top 12 quarterback 68.8 percent of the time, tied with Aaron Rodgers for third-highest in the league. It should also be noted that Prescott threw the ball just eight times in Week 17 after the Cowboys had their playoff berth locked up. It’s even more impressive when you see that he threw the ball just 28.7 times per game, the lowest of all quarterbacks being drafted. That’s likely why his top-five percentage was lacking in comparison. Marcus Mariota also stands out as someone who could did a lot with a little, throwing just 30.1 times per game. With his new weapons at wide receiver, expect that number to rise in 2017.
When you draft a quarterback who scrambles a lot, you’re typically going to get a high fantasy floor, but that didn’t happen with either Russell Wilson or Cam Newton in 2016. Wilson was playing banged up for the first half of the season and actually performed right in line with his career averages over the second half. Newton hurt his shoulder in Week 14, but was pretty bad all season long. Seeing him being drafted over Prescott doesn’t make much sense when looking at these charts. In fact, Newton didn’t even hit Prescott’s 68.8 percent top-12 number even in his magical 2015 season.
The other name that stands out on this list is Derek Carr, who is among the highest in bust percentage, and the lowest in boom percentage. Considering how good he was perceived to be last year, this doesn’t bode well for him, especially when you factor in that the AFC West has one of the worst passing schedules in all of football, having to play the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs all twice. Now that you know how often quarterbacks are/aren’t top-12, maybe we should be a little easier on Ben Roethlisberger? Though to be fair, his 57.1 percent of top-12 finishes were the second-highest total of his career (58.3 percent in 2015 was his career-high).
Top-26 (The Rest)
| Player | GAMES | Att/gm | Top-5 % | Top-12 % | Top-18 % | Boom % | Bust % |
| Jameis Winston | 16 | 35.4 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 68.8% | 0.0% | 31.3% |
| Matthew Stafford | 16 | 37.1 | 18.8% | 37.5% | 68.8% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| Philip Rivers | 16 | 36.1 | 6.3% | 37.5% | 75.0% | 6.3% | 25.0% |
| Eli Manning | 16 | 37.4 | 6.3% | 25.0% | 43.8% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Tyrod Taylor | 15 | 29.1 | 26.7% | 46.7% | 80.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Carson Wentz | 16 | 37.9 | 0.0% | 18.8% | 37.5% | 0.0% | 62.5% |
| Andy Dalton | 16 | 35.2 | 0.0% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 0.0% | 37.5% |
| Carson Palmer | 15 | 39.8 | 6.7% | 40.0% | 66.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Deshaun Watson | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Blake Bortles | 16 | 39.1 | 18.8% | 37.5% | 62.5% | 6.3% | 37.5% |
| Sam Bradford | 15 | 36.8 | 6.7% | 33.3% | 60.0% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Ryan Tannehill | 13 | 29.9 | 7.7% | 30.8% | 61.5% | 7.7% | 38.5% |
| Alex Smith | 15 | 32.6 | 13.3% | 26.7% | 46.7% | 6.7% | 53.3% |
| Joe Flacco | 16 | 42.0 | 6.3% | 25.0% | 50.0% | 6.3% | 50.0% |
Is there a player on this list that maybe stands out to you as someone who doesn’t belong? Tyrod Taylor somehow continues to be undervalued by the fantasy community, despite posting rock-solid numbers in back-to-back seasons. In fact, when looking at the landscape of the quarterback position, his numbers belong right with those being drafted in the No. 6-8 range. His top-five numbers were better than all but Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Ryan. If you’re wondering how he did back in 2015, here are the seasons next to one another. The lack of upside in 2016 may have something to do with the fact that Sammy Watkins was either out or hurt a majority of the year. With Watkins off to Los Angeles, Taylor needs to be lowered down draft boards, but maybe not as far as you’d think.
| Tyrod Taylor | Top-5 % | Top-12 % | Top-18 % | Boom % | Bust % |
| 2016 | 26.7% | 46.7% | 80.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| 2015 | 28.6% | 42.9% | 71.4% | 28.6% | 21.4% |
Matthew Stafford had three games where he hit “boom” status, though all three of them did come in the first six weeks. That’s the thing with Stafford, though, he’s about as predictable as they come. His numbers since the start of 2012 have essentially not changed, and as you can see, he overall percentages weren’t affected by the loss of Calvin Johnson.
| Matthew Stafford | Top-5 % | Top-12 % | Top-18 % | Boom % | Bust % |
| 2016 | 18.8% | 37.5% | 68.8% | 18.8% | 31.3% |
| 2015 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 68.8% | 12.5% | 31.3% |
| 2014 | 12.5% | 37.5% | 50.0% | 12.5% | 43.8% |
| 2013 | 12.5% | 50.0% | 68.8% | 12.5% | 25.0% |
| 2012 | 18.8% | 43.8% | 62.5% | 12.5% | 31.3% |
Once you get outside the top 12 quarterbacks, many of the names bunch together, which is why there is a lot of differing opinions. Bortles may have the look of someone slightly undervalued, as he “busted” less than Wilson, Newton, and Carr, but his situation may have changed more than anyone in the NFL this offseason. His numbers did drop pretty significantly from 2015 to 2016, though. Carson Palmer is what he is, and that is a quarterback who’ll never win you a week, but he also won’t lose you one very often. Meanwhile, Joe Flacco is a guy who threw the ball 42 times per game, yet somehow managed to “bust” in half of them.
Takeaways
The quarterback position is extremely deep this year. While you may have heard that in years past, late-round quarterbacks are at their peak. If you want someone like Rodgers, Brees, or Brady (guys who’ve done it seemingly every year), I have no issue with that, but don’t reach for someone like Marcus Mariota. It’s quite possible that the QB8 and QB18 are separated by just one point per game.
If there are any other quarterbacks you’re wondering about who didn’t pop up on this list, feel free to reach out on Twitter @MikeTagliereNFL, and I’ll gladly share. We are also working on getting all of the data from each player’s career up on their player page.
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Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.
