Throughout this offseason, we’ve brought you the results from quite a few mock drafts. From rookies, to dynasty, to redraft, we’re doing our best to ensure you’re prepared for your upcoming draft. Now that it’s August, we’re seeing ADP (average draft position) take its shape. While some will move due to injuries and depth chart changes, we wanted to bring in those who have the biggest effect on ADP otherwise.
Complete a mock draft in minutes with our free Draft Simulator
Some of your favorite analysts from Yahoo, CBS, FootballGuys, NFL.com and others joined me this weekend to do one last analyst mock draft. These are the analysts writing articles on their favorite sleepers, values, and busts. They are the ones who shift ADP in one direction or another. So if you’d like to find out which players are going to move before your draft, it’s best to learn from this draft right here, because these are the voices of the industry. If you’d like to find any of the participating analyst’s work, I’m going to include their Twitter handles and site affiliation at the bottom of this article.
Instead of tell you my opinion on their draft picks like I’ve done in previous mock draft articles, I’m going to compare every pick with their current ADP, letting you know the players who show the most significant change between the two and which direction you should expect that player to go. Keep in mind that I’ll be using a consensus ADP from a variety of sites. You should know that because it can vary from one site to another. After going through the draft picks, I’ll wrap up with a general overview of how the draft went down.
This was a 0.5 PPR league, with these starting requirements: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 W/R/T, 1 D/ST, 7 Bench Slots.
Rounds 1-2
PICK | OVR | ADP | DIFF | FRANCHISE | SELECTION |
1.01 | 1 | 1 | 0 | Jake Ciely | Johnson, David ARI RB |
1.02 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Sigmund Bloom | Bell, Le’Veon PIT RB |
1.03 | 3 | 4 | -1 | Mike Tagliere | Brown, Antonio PIT WR |
1.04 | 4 | 3 | 1 | Jamey Eisenberg | Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB |
1.05 | 5 | 6 | -1 | Matt Franciscovich | Beckham, Odell NYG WR |
1.06 | 6 | 5 | 1 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Jones, Julio ATL WR |
1.07 | 7 | 11 | -4 | Matt Harmon | Green, A.J. CIN WR |
1.08 | 8 | 9 | -1 | Brad Evans | Gordon, Melvin LAC RB |
1.09 | 9 | 7 | 2 | Matt Kelley | Evans, Mike TBB WR |
1.10 | 10 | 8 | 2 | Bob Harris | McCoy, LeSean BUF RB |
1.11 | 11 | 15 | -4 | Joe Dolan | Nelson, Jordy GBP WR |
1.12 | 12 | 12 | 0 | Michael Moore | Freeman, Devonta ATL RB |
2.01 | 13 | 14 | -1 | Michael Moore | Thomas, Michael NOS WR |
2.02 | 14 | 13 | 1 | Joe Dolan | Ajayi, Jay MIA RB |
2.03 | 15 | 23 | -8 | Bob Harris | Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE |
2.04 | 16 | 19 | -3 | Matt Kelley | Hilton, T.Y. IND WR |
2.05 | 17 | 17 | 0 | Brad Evans | Howard, Jordan CHI RB |
2.06 | 18 | 18 | 0 | Matt Harmon | Bryant, Dez DAL WR |
2.07 | 19 | 21 | -2 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Gurley, Todd LAR RB |
2.08 | 20 | 10 | 10 | Matt Franciscovich | Murray, DeMarco TEN RB |
2.09 | 21 | 24 | -3 | Jamey Eisenberg | Cooper, Amari OAK WR |
2.10 | 22 | 22 | 0 | Mike Tagliere | Fournette, Leonard JAC RB |
2.11 | 23 | 44 | -21 | Sigmund Bloom | Kelce, Travis KCC TE |
2.12 | 24 | 34 | -10 | Jake Ciely | Mixon, Joe CIN RB |
So when going through every round, we want to take a look at the players with the biggest variation between their draft slot and ADP. In the first round, it’s clear that everyone is pretty in sync with the public, though Matt Harmon thought A.J. Green was worth reaching for, and it’s hard to disagree with Harmon considering Green’s fantasy finishes when healthy. LeSean McCoy and Mike Evans came as the biggest ‘values’ just two spots after their ADP.
The second round is mostly more of the same, but the two picks that stand out the most are both tight ends. Bob Harris reached to ensure he landed Rob Gronkowski and Sigmund Bloom reached to grab Travis Kelce. It’s conceivable that Kelce trends upward in his touchdown total this year, but would need to in order to live up to this draft position. As for Gronkowski, as long as he stays healthy, he’s got late-first value. The biggest value of the round went to Matt Franciscovich with his pick of DeMarco Murray at 2.08. While I don’t necessarily like Murray this year, getting him in the late second is solid value.
Rounds 3-4
PICK | OVR | ADP | DIFF | FRANCHISE | SELECTION |
3.01 | 25 | 29 | -4 | Jake Ciely | Baldwin, Doug SEA WR |
3.02 | 26 | 38 | -12 | Sigmund Bloom | Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR |
3.03 | 27 | 35 | -8 | Mike Tagliere | Watkins, Sammy BUF WR |
3.04 | 28 | 26 | 2 | Jamey Eisenberg | Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR |
3.05 | 29 | 32 | -3 | Matt Franciscovich | Allen, Keenan LAC WR |
3.06 | 30 | 30 | 0 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Crowell, Isaiah CLE RB |
3.07 | 31 | 31 | 0 | Matt Harmon | Robinson, Allen JAC WR |
3.08 | 32 | 36 | -4 | Brad Evans | Pryor, Terrelle WAS WR |
3.09 | 33 | 47 | -14 | Matt Kelley | Montgomery, Ty GBP RB |
3.10 | 34 | 59 | -25 | Bob Harris | Cook, Dalvin MIN RB |
3.11 | 35 | 37 | -2 | Joe Dolan | Jeffery, Alshon PHI WR |
3.12 | 36 | 25 | 11 | Michael Moore | Cooks, Brandin NEP WR |
4.01 | 37 | 27 | 10 | Michael Moore | Miller, Lamar HOU RB |
4.02 | 38 | 58 | -20 | Joe Dolan | Bryant, Martavis PIT WR |
4.03 | 39 | 80 | -41 | Bob Harris | Tate, Golden DET WR |
4.04 | 40 | 94 | -54 | Matt Kelley | Snead, Willie NOS WR |
4.05 | 41 | 52 | -11 | Brad Evans | Olsen, Greg CAR TE |
4.06 | 42 | 33 | 9 | Matt Harmon | McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB |
4.07 | 43 | 49 | -6 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Landry, Jarvis MIA WR |
4.08 | 44 | 54 | -10 | Matt Franciscovich | Crabtree, Michael OAK WR |
4.09 | 45 | 42 | 3 | Jamey Eisenberg | Adams, Davante GBP WR |
4.10 | 46 | 16 | 30 | Mike Tagliere | Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB |
4.11 | 47 | 20 | 27 | Sigmund Bloom | Lynch, Marshawn OAK RB |
4.12 | 48 | 79 | -31 | Jake Ciely | Crowder, Jamison WAS WR |
This is where drafts start to change quite a bit, where you’re left reaching for players that you want, rather than drafting along with the current ADP. There were 10 players in rounds 3 and 4 that were drafted more than eight spots higher than their current ADP. The biggest reach in the third round was when Bob Harris selected Dalvin Cook at 3.10, which might have something to do with the quotes that came out of Vikings camp last weekend. Head coach Mike Zimmer said he looks great, while he has only seen Latavius Murray on tape. Michael Moore took advantage of some of the reaches and snagged Brandin Cooks at the end of the third, 11 spots after his current ADP. While some are having trouble finding targets for him in New England, you don’t trade a first and third round pick if you aren’t going to target a wide receiver. It was great value among this group.
Just one round after reaching 21 picks for Kelce, Bloom snagged Marshawn Lynch 27 spots after his current ADP, which seems quite high at No. 20 overall. Taking him at the end of the fourth comes with much less risk than taking him at the start of the third. Most analysts wait at the quarterback position, but I’ve stated all offseason that if I’m forced to choose between someone like Aaron Rodgers and timeshare running backs, I’ll go Rodgers. Getting him at No. 46 overall, I was able to get the biggest value in the round.
Rounds 5-8
PICK | OVR | ADP | DIFF | FRANCHISE | SELECTION |
5.01 | 49 | 70 | -21 | Jake Ciely | Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR |
5.02 | 50 | 28 | 22 | Sigmund Bloom | Brady, Tom NEP QB |
5.03 | 51 | 39 | 12 | Mike Tagliere | Hyde, Carlos SFO RB |
5.04 | 52 | 57 | -5 | Jamey Eisenberg | Gillislee, Mike NEP RB |
5.05 | 53 | 68 | -15 | Matt Franciscovich | Diggs, Stefon MIN WR |
5.06 | 54 | 43 | 11 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Brees, Drew NOS QB |
5.07 | 55 | 53 | 2 | Matt Harmon | Hill, Tyreek KCC WR |
5.08 | 56 | 76 | -20 | Brad Evans | Edelman, Julian NEP WR |
5.09 | 57 | 64 | -7 | Matt Kelley | Coleman, Tevin ATL RB |
5.10 | 58 | 69 | -11 | Bob Harris | Abdullah, Ameer DET RB |
5.11 | 59 | 104 | -45 | Joe Dolan | Woodhead, Danny BAL RB |
5.12 | 60 | 88 | -28 | Michael Moore | Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR |
6.01 | 61 | 61 | 0 | Michael Moore | Graham, Jimmy SEA TE |
6.02 | 62 | 48 | 14 | Joe Dolan | Reed, Jordan WAS TE |
6.03 | 63 | 112 | -49 | Bob Harris | Garcon, Pierre SFO WR |
6.04 | 64 | 82 | -18 | Matt Kelley | Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR |
6.05 | 65 | 113 | -48 | Brad Evans | Parker, DeVante MIA WR |
6.06 | 66 | 74 | -8 | Matt Harmon | Lacy, Eddie SEA RB |
6.07 | 67 | 41 | 26 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Anderson, C.J. DEN RB |
6.08 | 68 | 99 | -31 | Matt Franciscovich | Perine, Samaje WAS RB |
6.09 | 69 | 131 | -62 | Jamey Eisenberg | Brown, John ARI WR |
6.10 | 70 | 107 | -37 | Mike Tagliere | Maclin, Jeremy BAL WR |
6.11 | 71 | 85 | -14 | Sigmund Bloom | Moncrief, Donte IND WR |
6.12 | 72 | 87 | -15 | Jake Ciely | Powell, Bilal NYJ RB |
7.01 | 73 | 72 | 1 | Jake Ciely | Eifert, Tyler CIN TE |
7.02 | 74 | 73 | 1 | Sigmund Bloom | Marshall, Brandon NYG WR |
7.03 | 75 | 40 | 35 | Mike Tagliere | Ware, Spencer KCC RB |
7.04 | 76 | 65 | 11 | Jamey Eisenberg | Ingram, Mark NOS RB |
7.05 | 77 | 55 | 22 | Matt Franciscovich | Peterson, Adrian NOS RB |
7.06 | 78 | 109 | -31 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Meredith, Cameron CHI WR |
7.07 | 79 | 84 | -5 | Matt Harmon | Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE |
7.08 | 80 | 63 | 17 | Brad Evans | Blount, LeGarrette PHI RB |
7.09 | 81 | 81 | 0 | Matt Kelley | Gore, Frank IND RB |
7.10 | 82 | 137 | -55 | Bob Harris | Williams, Tyrell LAC WR |
7.11 | 83 | 106 | -23 | Joe Dolan | Jackson, DeSean TBB WR |
7.12 | 84 | 130 | -46 | Michael Moore | Riddick, Theo DET RB |
8.01 | 85 | 45 | 40 | Michael Moore | Luck, Andrew IND QB |
8.02 | 86 | 142 | -56 | Joe Dolan | Johnson, Duke CLE RB |
8.03 | 87 | 120 | -33 | Bob Harris | Decker, Eric TEN WR |
8.04 | 88 | 129 | -41 | Matt Kelley | West, Terrance BAL RB |
8.05 | 89 | 71 | 18 | Brad Evans | Mariota, Marcus TEN QB |
8.06 | 90 | 164 | -74 | Matt Harmon | White, James NEP RB |
8.07 | 91 | 135 | -44 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Matthews, Rishard TEN WR |
8.08 | 92 | 133 | -41 | Matt Franciscovich | Prosise, C.J. SEA RB |
8.09 | 93 | 77 | 16 | Jamey Eisenberg | Perkins, Paul NYG RB |
8.10 | 94 | 97 | -3 | Mike Tagliere | Bennett, Martellus GBP TE |
8.11 | 95 | 86 | 9 | Sigmund Bloom | Henry, Derrick TEN RB |
8.12 | 96 | 111 | -15 | Jake Ciely | Hunt, Kareem KCC RB |
This is the area of the draft you need to start paying attention to, as these are the players who’ll start moving significantly as the season approaches. All offseason, I’ve stated that James White continues to be undervalued, but not in this draft. Harmon took him at pick 8.06, which is the earliest I’ve seen him go. I like White, but taking him before someone like Paul Perkins is questionable. What you should take notice of, though, is that White should (and will) be moving up boards. Another player who was taken more than 60 spots earlier than his ADP (five rounds) was John Brown, when Jamey Eisenberg selected him at 6.09. If you’ve read anything I’ve done or listened to any podcast we’ve recorded, you’d know that Brown is fantasy football’s best kept secret. It’s important to note that Eisenberg picked him right in front of me, as I had him queued up. Instead, I took my second favorite mid-round target in Jeremy Maclin.
The player who fell furthest in this range was Andrew Luck, which was likely due to the news about the possibility of him not being ready for Week 1. If that news turns out to be nothing, Moore will be in good shape taking Luck at 8.01. The next two non-quarterback values were both running backs, as I selected Spencer Ware at 7.03 and Brandon Marianne Lee selected C.J. Anderson at 6.07. It was odd to see running backs fall as far as they did, and the risk is well worth the reward at this stage.
Rounds 9-12
PICK | OVR | ADP | DIFF | FRANCHISE | SELECTION |
9.01 | 97 | 140 | -43 | Jake Ciely | Williams, Jamaal GBP RB |
9.02 | 98 | 51 | 47 | Sigmund Bloom | Martin, Doug TBB RB |
9.03 | 99 | 122 | -23 | Mike Tagliere | Cobb, Randall GBP WR |
9.04 | 100 | 116 | -16 | Jamey Eisenberg | Ertz, Zach PHI TE |
9.05 | 101 | 154 | -53 | Matt Franciscovich | Ebron, Eric DET TE |
9.06 | 102 | 105 | -3 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Henry, Hunter LAC TE |
9.07 | 103 | 155 | -52 | Matt Harmon | Britt, Kenny CLE WR |
9.08 | 104 | 151 | -47 | Brad Evans | Rodgers, Jacquizz TBB RB |
9.09 | 105 | 145 | -40 | Matt Kelley | Enunwa, Quincy NYJ WR |
9.10 | 106 | 172 | -66 | Bob Harris | Wallace, Mike BAL WR |
9.11 | 107 | 150 | -43 | Joe Dolan | Thielen, Adam MIN WR |
9.12 | 108 | 119 | -11 | Michael Moore | Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB |
10.01 | 109 | 125 | -16 | Michael Moore | Matthews, Jordan PHI WR |
10.02 | 110 | 62 | 48 | Joe Dolan | Walker, Delanie TEN TE |
10.03 | 111 | 115 | -4 | Bob Harris | Kelley, Rob WAS RB |
10.04 | 112 | 46 | 66 | Matt Kelley | Wilson, Russell SEA QB |
10.05 | 113 | 67 | 46 | Brad Evans | Davis, Corey TEN WR |
10.06 | 114 | 165 | -51 | Matt Harmon | Bernard, Giovani CIN RB |
10.07 | 115 | 246 | -131 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Kupp, Cooper LAR WR |
10.08 | 116 | 50 | 66 | Matt Franciscovich | Ryan, Matt ATL QB |
10.09 | 117 | 103 | 14 | Jamey Eisenberg | Coleman, Corey CLE WR |
10.10 | 118 | 124 | -6 | Mike Tagliere | Forte, Matt NYJ RB |
10.11 | 119 | 149 | -30 | Sigmund Bloom | Jones, Marvin DET WR |
10.12 | 120 | 144 | -24 | Jake Ciely | White, Kevin CHI WR |
11.01 | 121 | 206 | -85 | Jake Ciely | Ginn Jr., Ted NOS WR |
11.02 | 122 | 160 | -38 | Sigmund Bloom | Perriman, Breshad BAL WR |
11.03 | 123 | 171 | -48 | Mike Tagliere | Doctson, Josh WAS WR |
11.04 | 124 | 60 | 64 | Jamey Eisenberg | Winston, Jameis TBB QB |
11.05 | 125 | 134 | -9 | Matt Franciscovich | Rawls, Thomas SEA RB |
11.06 | 126 | 127 | -1 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Doyle, Jack IND TE |
11.07 | 127 | 208 | -81 | Matt Harmon | McFadden, Darren DAL RB |
11.08 | 128 | 190 | -62 | Brad Evans | Jones, Zay BUF WR |
11.09 | 129 | 227 | -98 | Matt Kelley | Beasley, Cole DAL WR |
11.10 | 130 | 89 | 41 | Bob Harris | Cousins, Kirk WAS QB |
11.11 | 131 | 176 | -45 | Joe Dolan | Williams, Joe SFO RB |
11.12 | 132 | 66 | 66 | Michael Moore | Prescott, Dak DAL QB |
12.01 | 133 | 204 | -71 | Michael Moore | Hooper, Austin ATL TE |
12.02 | 134 | 56 | 78 | Joe Dolan | Newton, Cam CAR QB |
12.03 | 135 | 156 | -21 | Bob Harris | Sproles, Darren PHI RB |
12.04 | 136 | 167 | -31 | Matt Kelley | Witten, Jason DAL TE |
12.05 | 137 | 186 | -49 | Brad Evans | Burkhead, Rex NEP RB |
12.06 | 138 | 138 | 0 | Matt Harmon | Taylor, Tyrod BUF QB |
12.07 | 139 | 179 | -40 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Williams, Jonathan BUF RB |
12.08 | 140 | 211 | -71 | Matt Franciscovich | Stills, Kenny MIA WR |
12.09 | 141 | 163 | -22 | Jamey Eisenberg | Shepard, Sterling NYG WR |
12.10 | 142 | 123 | 19 | Mike Tagliere | Charles, Jamaal DEN RB |
12.11 | 143 | 75 | 68 | Sigmund Bloom | Carr, Derek OAK QB |
12.12 | 144 | 233 | -89 | Jake Ciely | Lee, Marqise JAC WR |
This is where there is almost zero correlation between ADP and draft picks, as this is the area where most are taking their favorite sleepers in the draft because most starting lineups are filled. With that being said, it’s important to note these players who could potentially fall in drafts, as well as those who should climb in drafts. The biggest reach in this range was Marianne Lee’s pick of Cooper Kupp, as it’s one that I don’t think anyone expected. His current ADP sits at 246, which is undrafted in a majority of leagues, but Marianne Lee liked him enough to reach for him at 10.07. There have been glowing reports about his hands from camp and that they believe he can make an impact almost immediately. Matt Kelley also reached quite a bit to secure Cole Beasley, who flashed a bit last season, finishing as the No. 39 wide receiver. He was the 59th wide receiver off the board here, so it may not seem like a big reach after all.
The players who fell the furthest in this range were basically all quarterbacks, though Joe Dolan got the biggest discount on Cam Newton, who fell 78 spots lower than his ADP. Outside of quarterbacks, there were others who fell, including Dolan’s pick of Delanie Walker at 10.02, Bloom’s pick of Doug Martin at 9.02, and Brad Evans’ pick of Corey Davis at 10.05. It’s important to note that Davis signed his rookie deal just one day before this draft and it was reported that he immediately took over as the ‘X’ receiver in Titans practice.
Rounds 13-16
PICK | OVR | ADP | DIFF | FRANCHISE | SELECTION |
13.01 | 145 | 108 | 37 | Jake Ciely | Stafford, Matthew DET QB |
13.02 | 146 | 170 | -24 | Sigmund Bloom | Lockett, Tyler SEA WR |
13.03 | 147 | 241 | -94 | Mike Tagliere | Austin, Tavon LAR WR |
13.04 | 148 | 92 | 56 | Jamey Eisenberg | Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB |
13.05 | 149 | 203 | -54 | Matt Franciscovich | Washington, DeAndre OAK RB |
13.06 | 150 | 157 | -7 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Ross, John CIN WR |
13.07 | 151 | 243 | -92 | Matt Harmon | Woods, Robert LAR WR |
13.08 | 152 | 184 | -32 | Brad Evans | Richard, Jalen OAK RB |
13.09 | 153 | 195 | -42 | Matt Kelley | Kamara, Alvin NOS RB |
13.10 | 154 | 118 | 36 | Bob Harris | Dalton, Andy CIN QB |
13.11 | 155 | 232 | -77 | Joe Dolan | Foreman, D’Onta HOU RB |
13.12 | 156 | 158 | -2 | Michael Moore | Gabriel, Taylor ATL WR |
14.01 | 157 | 281 | -124 | Michael Moore | Vereen, Shane NYG RB |
14.02 | 158 | 237 | -79 | Joe Dolan | McNichols, Jeremy TBB RB |
14.03 | 159 | 244 | -85 | Bob Harris | Conley, Chris KCC WR |
14.04 | 160 | 250 | -90 | Matt Kelley | Funchess, Devin CAR WR |
14.05 | 161 | 199 | -38 | Brad Evans | Fuller, Will HOU WR |
14.06 | 162 | 269 | -107 | Matt Harmon | Aiken, Kamar IND WR |
14.07 | 163 | 130 | 33 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Hill, Jeremy CIN RB |
14.08 | 164 | 150 | 14 | Matt Franciscovich | Brate, Cameron TBB TE |
14.09 | 165 | 93 | 72 | Jamey Eisenberg | Murray, Latavius MIN RB |
14.10 | 166 | 174 | -8 | Mike Tagliere | Fleener, Coby NOS TE |
14.11 | 167 | 204 | -37 | Sigmund Bloom | Conner, James PIT RB |
14.12 | 168 | 197 | -29 | Jake Ciely | Booker, Devontae DEN RB |
15.01 | – | – | – | Jake Ciely | Broncos, Denver DEN Def |
15.02 | 170 | 192 | -22 | Sigmund Bloom | Sanu, Mohamed ATL WR |
15.03 | – | – | – | Mike Tagliere | Chiefs, Kansas City KCC Def |
15.04 | – | – | – | Jamey Eisenberg | Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def |
15.05 | 173 | 339 | -166 | Matt Franciscovich | Jones, Aaron GBP RB |
15.06 | – | – | – | Brandon Marianne Lee | Texans, Houston HOU Def |
15.07 | 175 | 1000 | -825 | Matt Harmon | Henderson, De’Angelo DEN RB |
15.08 | – | – | – | Brad Evans | Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def |
15.09 | – | – | – | Matt Kelley | Bills, Buffalo BUF Def |
15.10 | 178 | 170 | 8 | Bob Harris | Thomas, Julius MIA TE |
15.11 | 179 | 314 | -135 | Joe Dolan | Goodwin, Marquise SFO WR |
15.12 | – | – | – | Michael Moore | Patriots, New England NEP Def |
16.01 | 181 | 183 | -2 | Michael Moore | Engram, Evan NYG TE |
16.02 | – | – | – | Joe Dolan | Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def |
16.03 | – | – | – | Bob Harris | Vikings, Minnesota MIN Def |
16.04 | 184 | 1000 | -816 | Matt Kelley | Janis, Jeff GBP WR |
16.05 | 185 | 1000 | -815 | Brad Evans | Zenner, Zach DET RB |
16.06 | – | – | – | Matt Harmon | Giants, New York NYG Def |
16.07 | 187 | 261 | -74 | Brandon Marianne Lee | Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR |
16.08 | – | – | – | Matt Franciscovich | Steelers, Pittsburgh PIT Def |
16.09 | 189 | 209 | -20 | Jamey Eisenberg | Smallwood, Wendell PHI RB |
16.10 | 190 | 266 | -76 | Mike Tagliere | Richardson, Paul SEA WR |
16.11 | – | – | – | Sigmund Bloom | Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def |
16.12 | 192 | 334 | -142 | Jake Ciely | Seferian-Jenkins, Austin NYJ TE |
Keeping the defenses out of the conversation, there were just six players who were drafted within 20 spots of their current ADP in this range. There were just three players who were drafted without an ADP in our database, and they were Harmon’s pick of De’Angelo Henderson, Kelley’s pick of Jeff Janis, and Evans’ pick of Zach Zenner. Jake Ciely’s final pick of Austin Seferian-Jenkins is extremely noteworthy, as there has been a lot of buzz around him the last week, saying he’s finally “got it.” The one reach that didn’t shock me in this range was Kelley’s pick of Devin Funchess, who has been consistently undervalued this offseason. He’s someone you can draft in the late rounds, see what you have in the first few weeks and cut bait if you need to, but you might just have yourself a top 40 wide receiver.
The player who fell the furthest in this range was Latavius Murray, who Eisenberg drafted at 14.09, likely due to the news I talked about earlier. He’s likely to fall into this range in most sharp drafts. Marianne Lee selected Jeremy Hill at 14.07, a fall of 33 picks from his ADP, likely due to the hype that Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard have received in training camp. It’s hard to envision a big role for him this year without injuries in front of him, especially after the way he’s played the last two years.
What We Learned
As expected, quarterbacks fell down the draft board. What was a surprise is seeing running backs like C.J. Anderson, Spencer Ware, and Paul Perkins fall as far as they did. One thing that stands out the most to me is this: When someone says they drafted John Brown (or someone in that range) in the sixth round, most people raise their eyebrows and say, “Wow, that’s early!” But is it really? In this draft, 37 receivers were drafted in the first six rounds, which makes me think that he could go as early as the fifth round. Take out what round a player was drafted in and ask yourself, “How many went before him at his position?” This will give you the true value of your draft pick, because every draft is different. Keep an eye on ADP, know your league’s tendencies and take advantage when they start to overvalue a position. Don’t be one of the cool kids – you should zig while everyone else zags.
Find all of the wonderful analysts who participated in the draft on Twitter by simply clicking on their name below:
Jake Ciely – RotoExperts
Sigmund Bloom – Footballguys
Jamey Eisenberg – CBS
Matt Franciscovich – NFL
Brandon Marianne Lee – HerFantasyFootball and Sirius XM
Matt Harmon – NFL and Footballguys
Brad Evans – Yahoo
Matt Kelley – RotoUnderworld
Bob Harris – Football Diehards
Joe Dolan – Fantasy Guru
Michael Moore – PFF
Myself – FantasyPros
Subscribe: iTunes | Stitcher | SoundCloud | Google Play | TuneIn | RSS
Mike Tagliere is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeTagliereNFL.